Stubborn OXen Blog

Uhhh..... What?

2012-03-10T19:02:00.000-08:00

Austen's Goal Line Stand:

I have not done one of these in a long time now, but I think there are two head-scratchers from last night that need to be addressed immediately: The Redskins trade for the second overall pick with the Rams and the Jets sign Mark Sanchez to a three year extension.

Could this be the future for Robert Griffin III and the Redskins?
Not unless they they find a way to add a lot of talent in order to
help Griffin turn around one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Let's start off with the the Redskins. To trade up just four spots in this year's draft they traded away a second round pick in this year's draft and first round picks in 2013 and 2014. That is a lot of extremely valuable picks to draft a guy (Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III) who has never even played in a prostyle offense.

I recently wrote an article about what the Redskins should do this offseason, and I laid out my reasons why Griffin was the best fit for the Skins and the future of the organization. However, giving up three first round picks and a second round pick for one guy is putting a lot of trust in Griffin to not be good, but great. For this to pay off for Washington, Griffin will have to become at least a top 10 quarterback within the first three years in the league, and that is a lot of pressure for a guy who just turned 22.

While I am very high on Griffin and his potential, it is just that, potential. You really never know what you are going to get with a prospect, especially at the quarterback position. Quarterback is the most difficult position to play out of any sport because you have to be so physically and mentally tough in order to have even the smallest amount of success in the NFL. The pressure of being the face of your franchise can destroy a player if he is not set up for success quickly (exhibit David Carr). Considering the lack of talent the Redskins have on offense, and now the lack of picks they have to add talent, Griffin might have a rough couple of years ahead of him, even if he plays up to the hype.

Also, considering Griffin is a running quarterback, there is a chance that he will get injured early and often in his career (much like Michael Vick). Then your team is down its leader and you do not have those high picks to surround your backup quarterback with enough talent to win without Griffin in the lineup. Griffin has the potential to be an excellent pocket passer, but at least early in his career, he will tend to try to gain first downs with his legs instead of standing strong in the pocket. This could cause him to take a lot of punishment from NFL defenders.

All that being said, Griffin is still one of the best prospects to come out of college in years, and if it were not for Andrew Luck being one of the best quarterback prospects of all time, Griffin would be getting even more attention than he has already gotten. Did the Redskins pay an extremely steep price to move up to that number two slot? Yes, but if they believe that Griffin can lead this team for years to come, then it was a move that this team had to make.

From everything that I have read and from all the interviews I have watched, Griffin seems like not only a great football player, but a fantastic person. He is a guy that everyone should be rooting for (outside of New York, Dallas, and Philly) and hopefully Mike Shanahan has found his next protege. I will definitely be rooting for this guy.

Mark Sanchez has to spend much less time on the ground in
2012 in order for him to live up to his $40 million extension.

Now onto Mark Sanchez and his $40 million contract extension. No, you did not read that wrong. The guy who turned the ball over a whopping 26 times last season just became the sixth or seventh highest paid quarterback in the league. "Uhhh... what?" was my immediate reaction to this move and I am still really unsure of how this helps the team.

The Jets organization has continually gone out of their way to coddle Sanchez, doing everything from color coding the offensive plays to now giving him a huge pay day for having the worst season of his young career. Maybe this will boost up his confidence and help him play up to his potential, but this could actually cause even more controversy in an already divided locker room.

There are players in every organization who believe they are underpaid, and I am sure there are plenty on the Jets. How would you feel if you were stuck with a contact you outplayed and see Sanchez get a ton of money that will inhibit you from getting the salary boost you feel you deserve. I know quarterbacks are always treated differently, but this is a bit much for a guy who many thought might not even be the Jets starter this season, let alone five years from now.

Another downside to this extension is the fact that this kills all incentive for a quarterback like Jason Campbell or Kyle Orton to come to New York to compete for the starting quarterback position. The Jets desperately need a better backup quarterback in order to push Sanchez, but that is unlikely considering players now know they will not have a fair shot at winning the starting role.

I went to USC when Sanchez was their starting quarterback and I have been a die hard Jets fan my entire life, unfortunately. So there is no one rooting harder for Sanchez to be successful, but why extend a guy who has shown so little progress? Even if he had a great 2012 season, Sanchez would not have gotten a contract much bigger than the one the Jets offered him this season, so I do not see why this move was necessary right now.

The best part of this move is that it frees up about $6 million of cap space for the Jets this season, which could be huge if they want to go after a guy like Mario Williams in free agency. However, if they do not make a big splash in free agency, or miss out on Williams or another big free agent the way they missed out on Nnamdi Asomugha last season, this could really come back to haunt them if Sanchez does not make significant progress in 2012.

Sanchez has everything it takes to be a top 10 quarterback (yes I really do mean that), but for whatever reason he has not put it all together to become a consistent quarterback. That consistency is the difference between the best quarterbacks in the league and backup quarterbacks.

Mike Tannenbaum has made a lot of impressive moves as the Jets' General Manager in his time with the team, but he does sometimes tend to try to throw money at a problem and it has hurt the Jets a few times in the past. Hopefully this is not one of those times, but Sanchez will have to prove to the world that he is worth this extension or else he will be looking for a job in another city. Oh and the Jets will have to hand him at least $10 million more than they would have had they not extended him.

Super Bowl XLVI: Who Wins?

2012-02-05T13:52:00.000-08:00

Tom Brady and Eli Manning will play
big roles in determining the winner.

Stally: The Patriots win this game because...

Two words: Tom, Brady.

Even as a diehard Jets fan (except he's apparently also a Giants fan), Austen will admit that Brady is the best quarterback ever to play the game. That's obviously not something with which I'm going to argue, as I've had the privilege of watching him lead my team to what will be its fifth Super Bowl in his 11 seasons.

At the start of Brady's playoff career, he was unstoppable as he and coach Bill Belichick went a perfect 9-0 on the way to three Super Bowls. However, he hasn't been quite the same since. Statistically, he's had better seasons and set the record for most touchdown passes in a season with 50. He also led his team to an 18-0 record that same 2007 season, but lost to these Giants in an embarrassing 17-14 stumble in Super Bowl XLII.
Despite the amount of film study his does and the amount of criticism and demand he puts on himself, he's still never watched the tape of that game. In fact, most of us Patriots fans had tried to block out, but the clips of Eli Manning's inexplicable mobility and David Tyree's dumb luck catch on 3rd-and-a-mile have come back heavily into our lives in the past two weeks.

That's ok. It's time to move on from that traumatic experience. Four years later, there's no better way to do that than making the first Super Bowl appearance since that terrible day against the same team that beat New England then. It's time to wash away the pain and nobody knows that better than Tom Brady.

Brady was embarrassed more than anyone else by that loss, as it was his record setting offense that stumbled with just 14 points. Brady is one of the most competitive players to ever play the game and I don't care if Eli Manning and his offense puts up 45 points, there's no way I can see Brady letting this game slip through his fingers the way he and the offense did four years ago.

Austen: The Patriots won't win this game because...

A lot of words.

The reason I love football so much is because it is one of the few sports in the world that is truly a team sport. Stally should know this because it was once a team mentality that helped the Patriots to one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history when they defeated the Rams in 2002. Tom Brady then became one of the best quarterbacks in the league and the Patriots replaced the Rams as the greatest show on turf (or grass) on the way to winning two more Super Bowls.

Then in an ironic twist, the Patriots played the role of the Rams in their loss to the Giants only six years after their rise to legendary status. It was the Giants who were the underdog in every single playoff game they were in, and that is what brought them together as a team to beat the big bad Patriots.

Stally believes that Tom Brady will be the difference in this game and guarantee the Patriots a fourth Super Bowl in ten years. However, I believe the Super Bowl will be won by the better team, not the better quarterback, and that is why I see the Giants again toppling the favored Patriots.

The Giants will win this game because...

The Giants have everything that a championship team needs. They have an elite quarterback in Eli Manning, a great young offensive line, a plethora of explosive receivers, and a defense that has improved every week at both stopping the run and the pass. This team was built by one of the best General Managers in the league, Jerry Reese, and is always extremely prepared for every matchup thanks to the most under-appreciated coach in the league, Tom Coughlin.

Eli may not be Tom Brady, but no one including Brady has been more clutch in 2011. He has put the entire team on his back and carried them all season long. Eli is the main reason that they have gotten this far. He is helped by an unexpectedly productive receiving corps led by Hakeem Nicks and undrafted second year player Victor Cruz. Both of them are extremely dangerous after the catch and continuously give defensive coordinators fits. Hakeem Nicks missed the Week 9 matchup against the Patriots, so I think he will be hungry to make up for some lost time.

When both are healthy, Ahmad Bradshaw (who also missed the Week 9 matchup) and Brandon Jacobs are a great one-two punch in the running game and can wear down any defense. Both are solid pass protectors so the Patriots defense has to be ready to defend both the run and pass whenever they are in.

The Patriots defense has had trouble stopping some of the worst offenses in the league (look at games against the Jets and Bills), so the Giants offense looks to have a very productive day.

Stally will say that none of that matters because Brady will outscore the Giants no matter how bad his defense plays, but he is forgetting that this improved offense only managed to put up 20 points at home earlier this season. And since then, the Giants' defense has only improved and gotten healthier.

The Giants' have the best defensive front in the NFL and they should pressure Brady early and often. The Giants also have very physical defensive backs who will show the Patriots a lot of press coverage, knocking their receivers off their routes. The Patriots' offense relies on timing and precise routes so this coverage forces Brady to stand in the pocket longer than he wants, giving those Giants' pass rushers time to get to the quarterback.

The Patriots' tight ends create mismatches all over the field, but the Giants have the players to matchup with these guys and at least slow them down. The Giants have three solid safeties in Kenny Phillips, Anttrel Rolle, and Deon Grant, as well as linebacker Jacquian Williams, who all will be responsible for covering these tight ends. While none of them are outstanding players, they at least give the Giants the ability to mask their coverages in order to try to confuse Brady.

While I am not saying that the Giants are going to shut down Brady and his tight ends, they at least have the ability to matchup with them, while the Patriots' defense is completely overmatched against the Giants' offense.

The Giants are a more solid team as a whole than the Patriots, which is why they should come out on top in this one. Brady is good enough to take over this game and win it single handedly should the Giants falter early, but he will have to be near perfect in order to make up for his team's defensive ineptitude. Brady better finally watch the game tape from their last Super Bowl because he needs a shot of humility in order to understand why he has lost to the Giants the last two times they have played.

Stally: The Giants won't win this game because...

Just one word on this one: attitude.

While I try to ignore much of the media circus that leads up the Super Bowl, I couldn't help but notice how much Giants players, fans and web staff wanted talk about how much New York was going to win by. Heck, the team even posted their championship splash page last night! (Yes, I'm sure it was a mistake, but only contributes to my belief that the Giants are flat out cocky.)

It almost feels like a role reversal from four years ago, where the Giants are expecting to show up, pass all over the Pats, pound Tom Brady into the ground, and raise a trophy. News flash provided by the 2007 Patriots: it's not that easy.

While Austen criticized me for thinking that it wasn't a team game, I actually feel quite the opposite. It's just that Tom Brady is simply the heart of the team. When Brady is on, he makes everyone else around him better; when he's not, the team struggles to find a rhythm. This year, he seems focused and ready, and the team as a whole is taking a better approach than the Giants. I even notice this among the fan bases.

Whereas the Giants are already marketing their championship gear and practicing their Disneyworld lines, the Patriots are talking about how special it is to have the opportunity to play in the game. They, along with fans, realize that this is why we play (or cheer) and that tonight's game is going to be a fun experience to go after a championship.

Unlike four years ago, where we forgot to enjoy the experience, and ultimately, didn't enjoy the experience. New England, as a whole, is ready for four great quarters of championship football. If you don't believe that the Patriots are focusing on enjoying the game, just look at Bill Belichick, who actually cracked a smile this week!

I just don't think the Giants have the attitude to compete with that. When the game gets close in the final 10 minutes, the Patriots will have been mentally preparing for that final push for two weeks, whereas New York has just assumed it's going to come in and walkaway with a multiple touchdown rout.

This is the National Football League and teams don't make it this far if they aren't great. New England is confident, yes, but it's not over confident like New York. That mentality will be the determining factor in winning Super Bowl XLVI.

Austen: Do not think for a second that a Tom Coughlin team will come out flat and unprepared in a game of this magnitude. The Giants' players did not post their championship gear on the website, and I know it was not a move made by Coughlin. The players have nothing to do with this and I do not think something like that will distract them from concentrating on preparing for this game.

This game could go a lot of ways for many different reasons so it should be a great game to watch, unless you are a Jets, Eagles, Ravens, or 49ers fan.

Predcitions (16 points)

Stally: New England 30-27
Austen: New York 34-28

Super Bowl Coin Toss

2012-02-05T13:36:00.000-08:00

Will we see a lot of this in Super Bowl XLVI or will the
Patriots' quick pass offense keep Tom Brady upright?

Stally: Tomorrow, people will bet on everything, including the Coin Toss. However, if you know which OXen to listen to (hint: probably the one that's missed only two of ten playoff games as opposed to the one that went 0-4 in the Divisional Round [that was Austen]), we'll take the need to gamble on anything right out of the equation.

Obviously, I'll be picking my New England Patriots and Austen will be picking his (?) New York Giants (?), so we can skip that formality and discuss where we think the biggest matchups will be and how they will play out.

In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants made Tom Brady uncomfortable and they have similar traits to that defensive front now that they did then. However, the Patriots offense is totally different. This isn't a team that looks to hit Randy Moss 60 yards down field for a touchdown. This offense is built around the quickness and strength of its tight ends and the precision of Wes Welker's short route running.Who wins this battle, Austen? Can the Patriots offensive line hold up long enough to allow Brady to get the ball out or will it again be a long day for The Great One?

Austen: Stally is completely right when he says this is a totally different Patriots offense than it was last time they were in the Super Bowl. However, the Giants defense is better on every level than it was during the last matchup and that is one of the many reasons that this Super Bowl should live up to the hype.

Let's start off with the biggest storyline, which is the Patriots' physical offensive line vs. the Giants' fierce pass rushers. The addition of guard Brian Waters has turned the Patriots offensive line into one of the better units in the NFL. Left tackle Matt Light has played better this season than he has in years and looks revitalized. Yet this is one of the older offensive lines in the NFL and they tend to struggle against quick pass rushers, which the Giants have plenty of.

The Giants defensive line has three elite defensive ends in Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and the ever improving Jason Pierre-Paul. Most defensive coordinators would kill to have just one of these guys on their team, I know Bill Belichick would, and they create quite a problem for any offensive line. What is often overlooked on this defensive unit is that they have a very solid group of defensive tackles as well. The rotation of the pass rushing Chris Canty, the run stuffing Linval Joseph, and the productive veteran Rocky Bernard makes this defense just that more difficult to game plan around.

I just named six players that the Patriots' offensive line have to study game tape on, and we have not even talked about the Giants' linebackers and defensive backs. To me, the edge has to go to the Giants' defensive line in this one because there are simply too many players who all bring something a little bit different to the table. There is almost no way to game plan around this defensive line because their players' versatility allows them to show you something different every play.

As I said earlier, the Patriots offensive line is on the old side and is a bit physically overmatched. This rotation of defensive lineman should be able to wear them out as the game goes along and that does not bode well for Brady. Do not be surprised if the Patriots are forced to keep playmaking tight end Rob Gronkowski in pass protection more often than they like, which really limits this passing attack. I know Brady is very capable of getting the ball out quickly to his receivers, but I am not sure that the Patriots will be able to beat the Giants without trying to take some deep shots, which leaves Brady open to some big hits in this one.

I look forward to hearing Stally say why I am wrong and how Brady will have an answer for everything I mentioned. And Brady just might.

Stally: You're right. We didn't talk about the Giants linebackers and defensive backs. You know why? Because they aren't worth mentioning. I kind of tipped my hand before, but as I mentioned, this Patriots offense isn't exactly set up to allow the New York defensive line to spend all day beating up Tom Brady, the way they did four years ago.

The argument run stuffing aspect of the interior D-linemen was a waste of type as the Patriots probably won't run the ball too often. They'll go with the short screen passes to guys like Danny Woodhead and (on a slightly farther down field scale) Wes Welker and will likely put Aaron Hernandez in the backfield from time to time to force the Giants to uncomfortably adapt to the notion he might run or might go out for a screen pass and serve as a 245-pound wrecking ball.

It's also kind of crazy to expect that Gronkowski will be hunkered down in pass protection all day. If anything, his hanging around on the line a scrimmage just a little longer will make it harder for the Giants to figure out if they can ignore him for the play or if he's going to burn them on a late route. I could see the check down to Gronkowski over the middle becoming a tough play to defend and one that should gain the Pats 5-10 yards, more if Gronk can carry a three-man load like he usually does.

I certainly have a lot of respect for the Giants defensive line, but I see them getting neutralized for several reasons. As you mentioned, the Pats offensive line is quite strong, and if Tom Brady runs a short gaining hurry up, I just can't see the Giants getting comfortable to bring the house.

Austen: Remember that the Patriots beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship game without throwing a single passing touchdown so do not think that the Patriots will not try to gash the Giants defense with some runs. They also want to wear down the Giants pass rushers so you might see the Patriots running the ball more than you are used to, much the way they did when they dominated the Jets the first time they played each other this season.

The other big matchup in this game is the Patriots' defense against the Giants' explosive passing attack. The Giants have had more 40+ yard plays than any offensive in the league this year (and yes that includes the Packers' seemingly unstoppable offense, which was effectively stopped by the Giants defense). The Patriots defense was one of the worst against the pass and it is hard for me to figure out a way that this defense can stop Eli Manning and his weapons.

How do you think this defense, which has made some strides in recent games, will fare against Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham? Who on this defense can even slow down these guys? How can Bill Belichick think that Julian Edelman even has a shot at defending Cruz, who he will probably be lined up against most of the day?

Will this defense again be the Achilles heel of this team, like it was in their Week 9 matchup?

Stally: The key to the defense and the area it excelled noticeably against Tim Tebow and the Broncos in the Divisional Round will be the defensive line. There's no way I can possibly argue that Edelman will be like white on rice against Victor Cruz. However, like Torrey Smith, who was a ghost for the Ravens, guys like Cruz, and Nicks as well, tend to be downfield threats.

If Eli drops back five steps and unleashes bombs, then it may take the occasional Eli wobbly duck to land in the hands of a Patriots player in order for the Patriots to slow down this offense. That said, Vince Wilfork is one of the league's best defensive players and, pun intended, is a load for an offensive line to handle. If he can block up the middle and the Pats improving pass rush can rattle Eli, the prolific passing attack could be neutralized. To put it simply, the success of the Giants offense will be determined by the battle at the line of scrimmage and the amount of time (or lack thereof) that Manning has to pick apart a weak secondary.

It's also worth noting that while the Patriots ranked 31st in yards against per game, they only ranked 15th in points against during the regular season. It's a typical bend-but-don't-break Belichick defense and the same kind of mentality that kept forcing the Rams to punt from the offensive 40-yard-line during Super Bowl XXXVI. If the defense had broken, the Ravens would have run away in the AFC Championship, but this D is good at buckling down and holding the other team out of the end zone. That could be a big factor against a team like the Giants that doesn't exactly have the size (or strength, I'm looking at you Brandon Jacobs) to make the tight area gains that are needed when you get close to the end zone.

Austen: First of all, Victor Cruz is not just a deep threat. Against the 49ers, he was running underneath routes all day, giving Eli and quick option in the passing game while he was being destroyed by the fierce 49ers' defense. His precise route running was the main reason the Giants were able to leave the Bay Area with a win and I think he poses a problem that the Patriots do not have an answer for.

The Patriots are likely to double cover Hakeem Nicks for most of the day, and maybe they will be able to bottle him up for most of the day, but that leaves Cruz in single coverage with a lot of room to run around in the middle of the field. Nicks and Cruz might not be Calvin Johnson, but do not underestimate how physical these guys are. They are both over six feet tall and have the strength to easy overpower any and all of the Patriots defensive back, which I guess is not saying that much.

Not only are the Giants receivers more physical than you are giving them credit for, but you are forgetting about the Giants' mammoth tight ends, Bear Pascoe (who had his first touchdown two weeks ago against the 49ers) and Jake Ballard (who scored the game winning touchdown against the Patriots in the regular season). Neither of these guys are anywhere near as good as the Patriots' tight end duo, but one thing they are is physical.

With Pascoe at 6-5 280 pounds and Ballard at 6-6 275 pounds, it would be hard to ask for two better options in the red zone. They are not burning anyone downfield like Hernandez or carrying defenders on their back like Gronkowski, but they get the job done when the Giants need them the most. If Eli puts the ball in the right place, it is almost impossible to stop these from coming down with the ball because of their size.

Secondly, please let's not compare any part of the Broncos' or Ravens' offenses to the Giants' offense. Tim Tebow does not even warrant a comparison to Eli. Joe Flacco is garbage and always will be. Torrey Smith is still very young and inexperienced, and he still managed to beat the Patriots defense deep numerous times, Flacco just failed to get the ball to him. Anquan Boldin is old and past his prime, and to quote Stally, "looks fat." And do not even get me started on Lee Evans.....

Alright I will start on Evans a bit. Stally says the Patriots defense's mentality is bend but don't break. However, Flacco delivered a pass right into the hands of a wide open Evans at the end of the game. If Evans knew how to catch a ball, which is kind of critical since his job title is a receiver, the Patriots would not even be in the Super Bowl and this defense would be absolutely torn in the media.

Stally might not think highly of Brandon Jacobs, but he ran for over 70 yards and a touchdown the last time these two teams met and that was without Ahmad Bradshaw to help spell him. If the Giants can run the ball efficiently, the Patriots defense has no hope of stopping this offense.

The Season's Overtime Coin Toss

2012-01-27T20:06:00.000-08:00

Even Norv Turner is puzzled about
how he's still coaching the Chargers.

Stally: Ok, so we started this right after the regular season ended, but Austen wrote so much that it took me a while to go through his answer and come up with my own. Some of the questions might sound dated, but they should still provide insight.

Let's take a look at some of the recent coaching and/or managerial changes as the carousel swings around in full circle. For each, I'm interested in a A-F grade on the choice to either fire or retain the person and a brief explanation on the grade.

Excluding the midseason firings that we discussed at the time, here's what we've seen (as of Wed. after the regular season):

2-14 Colts - fire Chairman Bill Polian, GM Chris Polian

2-14 Rams - fire Steve Spagnuolo

4-12 Bucs - fire Head Coach Raheem Morris

8-8 Bears - fire GM Jerry Angelo, retain Head Coach Lovie Smith

8-8 Chargers - retain Head Coach Norv Turner

8-8 Eagles - retain Head Coach Andy Reid

Three other questions, Austen, two of which can be tied into answers on the above teams:

- The future of Colts' Head Coach Jim Caldwell is still hanging in the balance. Is there any way or reason that he is retained?

- How the heck does Marty Schottenheimer get fired after a 14-2 season in San Diego and Turner is retained after this year's catastrophe?

- What's the future of Romeo Crennel in Kansas City and do you agree with that future?

Austen: I will start off talking about the Colts in general. This was by far the worst team in football and all it took was to lose Peyton Manning. There is no excuse for that, so I really think the Colts need to clean house.

Cutting ties with the Polians was definitely a tough decision, but since the Colts have drafted horribly the last few years, especially in the first round, and they decided that Peyton would play for the next 20 years and never get injured, they definitely needed to go. There is no excuse for not getting a decent backup to Peyton since he was injured and is getting towards the end of his career.

I will give the Colts a B for this move, which could be higher depending on who they find to replace them. It was only a good move if they can find someone better.

As for Caldwell, I think he needs to go as well (called it). This season shows that the Colts have absolutely no one on this team with any leadership skills, which includes Caldwell. He has been able to sit back and relax with Peyton taking the reins and acting as the head coach, and this season showed he clearly cannot control his locker room without Peyton.

The head coaching job in Indianapolis would be a highly sought after job if it became available, and I think they can do a lot better with some besides Caldwell. Any coach would love the option of having their pick of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback for 2012. This is probably the most talented 2-14 team the NFL has ever seen, so do not think for a minute that they will not be in playoff contention next season with or without Peyton.

Onto the disastrous Rams. After a season in which they barely missed out on the playoffs, Spagnuolo lead this team to a 2-14 record, and they were not even as good as their record suggests. They had the worst offense in the league and one of the worst defenses, which was what Spagnuolo was specifically brought in to help fix.

I will not blame the offense on Spagnuolo, but this is a defense that has been struggling for years and he has seemingly made no effect on the team. Maybe his defenses were so good in New York because of two guys named Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora and not because of his scheme.

He will be a sought after defensive coordinator, but he clearly had no business being a head coach, so I will give the Rams a B+ for this move. Again this could become higher rated if they find an adequate replacement, which will be very difficult considering the lack of talent on this team. Landing Jeff Fisher would be huge for this franchise. (The Rams landed Fisher along with two solid offensive and defensive coordinators as well.)

Ronde Barber was too old to be the
first mate for Raheem Morris' ship.

I am going to give the firing of Raheem Morris a C- for the Bucs, mostly because I think the majority of the blame for the Bucs' taking a step backwards has more to do with the GM than the coach. Morris led a very young team to a 10-6 record in 2010 and the personnel department took that as a sign that they needed to do nothing to tweak the roster.

Morris was not given the talent to succeed on the field and that is inexcusable considering they had almost $40 million in cap space. Their biggest acquisition was stealing away the Falcons' punter with a $19 million contract. They could have gone after Nnamdi Asomugha, Antonio Cromartie, or Jonathan Joseph, all of whom would have been huge upgrades over the 36-year-old Ronde Barber. Also with all of Aqib Talib's run ins with the law, cornerback was a huge issue for them. Yet, they decided to do nothing and their defense really took a step back, despite a much improved defensive line thanks to rookie Adrian Clayborn becoming a playmaker for this squad.

On offense, they also did nothing to help out the very young Josh Freeman. They did not get any sort of a complimentary running back for second year LeGarrette Blount, who they decided to put their entire offense on all season long. He did not deliver at all and their defense was so bad they basically had no choice but to go to the passing game by the second quarter in most games. Since Blount is not very effective on passing downs, he became useless for most of the game and they had to use 31-year-old Earnest Graham, who had been playing fullback for the last season or two.

Also, with tons of solid receivers in free agency, they decided to stick with their very young and inexperienced receivers, which again blew up in their face. Teams realized that Mike Williams was the only threat in the passing game and double teamed him all season long. This gave Freeman no one to throw to and that is why he ended up throwing almost four times as many interceptions as he did last season.

Morris was given no hope for success and this was clearly a move by the GM to try to place blame elsewhere. By no means did Morris do a great job coaching this season, but I would have stuck it out with him for at least one more season to see if he could turn this team around. Instead, they will be looking for another coach, and it will be very difficult to convince any coach to come to this team, considering how little support they gave to Morris in his short time with the team.

The Bears might have had the most disappointing season of any team in the NFL and a lot of that had to do with GM Jerry Angelo. Besides the Bucs, the Bears might have handled free agency worse than any other team in the NFL. They needed a receiver badly for Jay Cutler, yet Angelo allowed the stubbornly stupid Mike Martz to convince him to only go after Roy Williams. Williams had one good season with Martz six years ago and has been terrible since, and this might have been the worst season of his career. This was a horrible move and it also gave less reps to Johnny Knox, who is definitely the Bears' best receiver. This led to Knox having the worst season of his career as well and the Bears passing offense took yet another step backwards. Martz is now gone as well and the Bears offense is going to have to again be completely overhauled.

The Bears biggest need was at offensive line and again they did nothing in free agency. There were numerous guys on the open market at the guard and tackle positions, yet the Bears decided to do nothing. They luckily landed Gabe Carimi in the draft, and if he can stay healthy, he should be the best lineman the Bears have in 2012. They also allowed center/team leader Olin Kreutz to leave in free agency over $500,000, which in the NFL is basically meaningless. This might have been the dumbest move in the offseason, if not for the Bears' defensive acquisition.

The Bears' definitely needed help in their secondary, so they signed safety Brandon Meriweather, who was cut by the Patriots. First, if Bill Belichick cannot turn a defensive guy into a productive player, no one can, so this should have been advised against from the start. Secondly, the Patriots were trying to trade Meriweather and would have taken a sixth or seventh round pick for him. His contract had only one year left on it and it was for around $1.5 million. The Bears decided to not trade for him, but then paid him over $3 on a one-year contract. I have never seen a guy get cut and then get his contract doubled before, because only an idiot would do this.

Angelo might have been the worst GM in the NFL, besides the late Al Davis, and he simply had to go. I will give the Bears an A- for this move. The minus is only because they allowed him to be their GM for way too long. He should have been fired years ago.

While Angelo might have been the worst GM in football this season, Norv Turner and Andy Reid were equally as detrimental to their football teams. Both of these guys simply sat back and thought that the amount of talent they had on their teams would guarantee them a playoff berth. Both were wrong.

I have little doubt that Raheem Morris could have taken either of these teams to the playoffs, yet he is fired and both of these guys keep their jobs. Turner and Reid do not coach with any passion or enthusiasm, and that type of coaching style basically only works when you are Bill Belichick. Neither of these guys are anywhere near as smart as Belichick, especially Reid, so they need to find a different way of coaching these teams.

While Turner seemingly did nothing to help or hurt his team (he just failed to get his team working as a cohesive unit, which is his job), I think Reid did a huge disservice to his ball club by putting together a team of athletes and not putting them in a system to utilize their skills properly. Reid has the most mobile quarterback in the league and the most versatile running back the NFL has seen in quite some years, yet Reid loves the passing game so much he decides to throw the ball 40-50 times a game. I wrote many articles about Reid this season, all of which emphasized the fact that the Eagles should be running the ball 30-40 times a game.

While this really hurt their offense, hiring Juan Castillo, who has been an offensive line coach almost all of his coaching career, as a defensive coordinator simply because "he played linebacker in college," was the most arrogant coaching move I have ever seen. It helped to make the most talented defense in the league completely ineffective. Every team in the league ran the ball effectively against the Eagles and that is because an offensive line coach should never make a one year jump to being your defensive play caller. This was the worst coaching decision I have probably ever seen and it definitely cost this team a playoff berth.

I give the Chargers a C for keeping Turner, only because Phillip Rivers pleaded for his job and it is hard for an organization to go out of their way to piss off their $90 million franchise quarterback. He should have been fired, but Rivers' backing was clearly the difference that saved his job.

The Eagles, on the other hand, get a big fat F for keeping Reid. He was the worst coach in football all year long, he failed to make adjustments to right his team before they went 4-8, and he lost control of his locker room, especially DeSean Jackson, who clearly gave up on the Eagles season, despite the fact that he should have been playing for a new contract. For personal reasons, I am glad Reid is still in Philly, so that I can keep on hating the team and the coach. Hopefully Reid keeps screwing up the Eagles and keeping them out of Super Bowl contention.

Sorry to go on for so long, but there was a lot to be said about all of these teams. Now for Deep Thoughts by Jonathan Stallsmith.

Stally: I'll keep it much shorter than that by more or less echoing everything you just said. You know I've never disliked Andy Reid, but I did write a Goal Line Stand about how his departure was imminent. It's kind of ironic that a foolish move by the Eagles makes my assertions look foolish, isn't it?

...That's about it, everything else you covered in your lecture, Professor Elmore.

Austen: Now onto 2012. There were a ton of good 8-8 teams this year and I was wondering what you thought of each of them. The only eight win team to make the playoffs this year was the Broncos, so we'll ignore them for now because they proved by beating the Steelers that they are at least on the right track, even if that is the Tebow track.

So we are looking at the Cardinals, Bears, Cowboys, Jets, Raiders, Eagles, Chargers, and possibly the 9-7 Titans, if you so desire (since I think they still stink). All of these teams were considered playoff caliber teams, but they all fell short. Who do you think are the best of these teams? Are some of these teams worse than their record indicates? Which of these teams is going to have to start rebuilding at least on one side of the football?

Are these teams better or worse than their records?

Stally: I see three groups in here: the should-have-beens, the almost-weres and the best-we-could-dos.

The should-have-beens, in rank order, consist of the Eagles, Chargers, Cowboys...and, maybe, the Jets.

The worst thing about the failure of Philadelphia's "Dream Team" is that we're going to have to spend all of 2012 listening to the talking heads force the term "Redeem Team" down our throats. The Eagles' play late in the season, in which they closed out the year with four straight wins, proves that they were clearly capable of being the team we thought they could be before the season started. I doubt we'll see much change here and that even includes at the head coaching position (see Austen's assessment of that decision above).

The Chargers played in the worst division in football and there's no reason they couldn't have found one, single more win in the West. They showed signs of the 11-5, 12-4 team we thought they could be, but they were inconsistent and seemed to lack any motivation to win a game. The loss of Darren Sproles hurt them far more than anyone thought it would, and, while he wasn't an every down back, they haven't found anyone that can make their offense run the way LaDainian Tomlinson used to five years ago. While I was high on him as a rookie, I'm comfortable saying now: Ryan Mathews is not the solution.

If I told you that one quarterback in the NFC East completed 66.3% of his passes for 31 TDs, 10 INTs and a 102.5 QB rating, while another completed 61.0% for 29 TDs, 16 INTs and a 92.9 rating, could you distinguish Tony Romo and Eli Manning? The first stat line is that of Romo's and a reflection that it's quite sad that Manning beat him out not only for a Pro Bowl selection but also for the division title. Dallas was also better than the Giants defensively, so I'm looking in the direction of Felix Jones to pick out the weakness as the running game. DeMarco Murray looked great in the few games he became the feature back (before injury), so I don't see the running game being a permanent problem (unlike San Diego). This is two years in a row the 'Boys have underachieved, but I expect them to be a contender next year.

Yet another one of Rex Ryan's Super
Bowl guarantees went unvalidated.

The Jets are lucky to be listed as a should-have-been and are probably only there because of their success the previous two seasons (with appearances in the AFC Championship). That, and the perception dumped upon the nation by a loud mouth coach that continually asserts that a team that hasn't won its own division since 2002, beat the Giants since 1993 or made the Super Bowl since 1968 is an elite team. (Ouch) While Austen kept the faith for Gang Green, it became apparent to me halfway through the season that this Jets team just didn't have what it did the previous two seasons. While I was surprised they didn't at least manage a winning season, it didn't come as much surprise they weren't near the cream of the league's crop.

The Jets could have easily fallen into the almost-weres category where I place the Chicago Bears. The almost-weres were more teams that were a few bricks short of a load. Whereas Philly, San Diego and Dallas flat out underachieved, the Bears seemed in a position where they could be a contender only if everything went right (a la the 2009 and 2010 Jets). Unfortunately, as Austen mentioned earlier in regards to the firing of the team's GM, the Bears weren't well built. If any team lost their starting QB and RB, they'd be hurting, but it looked like a later season version of the Colts - totally deflated. After starting 7-3, Chicago lost five straight, including miserable home games to the likes of the Chiefs and Seahawks.

Lastly, we have the best-we-could-dos. These are teams that achieved about as well as they're going to do and really aren't going to do a lot better without significant improvements. In rank order, the Titans, Raiders and Cardinals fall into this group.

Matt Hasselbeck isn't a long term solution in Tennessee, as he's getting up there in years, and, aside from Kenny Britt, there isn't much to brag about in the passing game. I see no reason why the Titans can't be in the 7-9/9-7 band for the next few years, but I also don't see any reason why they'll ever get up any higher than that. Do they need to implode the team? No. But, they need to make improvements.

Austen was higher on the Raiders for much of the season than I was, but I just don't get this team. I didn't support them firing Tom Cable when he went 8-8 with a lesser team last year and I wasn't overly surprised Hue Jackson's team topped out at the same speed. What I can't seem to figure out is how Jackson has also been fired? At what point will the Raiders accept that the team they're putting on the field is mediocre and despite decent coaching, it's not going to get better without better players!? We all said it would be when Al Davis died, but that's clearly not the case. The team lost its All-Pro player in Nnamdi Asomugha during the offseason and the oft uninspiring Jason Campbell was putting together a surprisingly decent season before injury. I didn't expect the Raiders to go any better than 8-8 and I don't again next year.

Then, there are the Cardinals. They're 8-8 record is a mirage. Want to challenge me on that? You won't win! Arizona was just 4-8 in games that ended in regulation and won no less than four home games in overtime. Here's who they beat in those four: St. Louis, Dallas, Cleveland, Seattle. Aside from Dallas, none of those jump off the page as solid performances against good teams. Meanwhile, they snuck by Carolina (at home) early in the season and the Rams on the road, while losing to the Vikings. Going forward, the team is in a bad spot as John Skelton is clearly the best quarterback in the locker room, but Kevin Kolb is being paid like a franchise player. The Cardinals went 5-11 in 2010 and didn't do a whole lot, other than get lucky, to make me feel they were much better this year.

Austen: I agree with almost everything that you had to say, so I will just go through some of the things I disagree with you about.

You have been higher on the Cowboys than I have been at all points in time this season. The only thing that is consistent about the Boys is that they are inconsistent. Tony Romo is boom or bust every week. He can either play amazingly well or completely fall apart and cost his team a win. He did both numerous times this season and that is why they are going to consistently be a disappointment. Dez Bryant has to improve his work ethic and Miles Austin has to get healthy for this offense to live up to its potential.

Also, hiring Rob Ryan without improving possibly the worst defensive backfield in the NFL was flat out a horrible decision. His defense cannot function without at least solid cover corners and the poor play of Dallas' DBs allowed offenses to consistently attack them deep down field. Do not be surprised if the Cowboys go after cornerbacks early and often in the draft this year and free agency.

DeSean Jackson helped throw
away the Eagles season. (Getty)

I will quickly mention the Eagles because I think there is a good possibility that they will be even worse next year than they were this year. They have a lot of defensive players on the wrong side of 30 and Michael Vick does not look like the player he was in 2010. DeSean Jackson is a free agent and it will be interesting to see what they will do with him. The Eagles are in a bit of a lose-lose situation with him because if he leaves, they lose a huge part of their offense and a player that makes Vick a much better quarterback. If they retain him with a big contract, which is the only type of contract Jackson will sign, they might end up over paying for a player who could end up being more trouble than he is worth (a la Santonio Holmes). They might learn from the Jets' mistake and let their troubled receiver go to no man's land, a.k.a. the Redskins (Holmes was offered more money by the Redskins and still stayed with the Jets last offseason).

Speaking of Holmes, the Jets are a total mess and seemingly have been for the majority of the season. This team's holes and inconsistencies have been masked the last few seasons due to their ability to come together as a team and pull out tough wins. That team chemistry seems to be entirely gone and all of their flaws were on display for the world to see this season. They were lucky to get to eight wins, or unlucky if you take their draft position into consideration, and they have a lot of holes they need to fill this offseason. The bigger job might be finding a way to get this team working together again and getting them all on the same page.

The Raiders late season failures might have surprised me more than any other team's performance down the stretch. They simply fell apart. However, they were hit by injuries quite hard. They lost Darren McFadden for the last nine games of the season. The Raiders' offense was further hurt by losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell and then having to bring in Carson Palmer mid-season. Palmer's transition into the offense was hindered by the fact that all three of his top receivers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore, kept rotating in and out of the lineup due to injuries. On defense, already a bit thin at cornerback after losing Nnamdi Asomugha to free agency, the Raiders lost starting cornerback Chris Johnson for almost the entire year. That is a lot for any team to lose, let alone a team that has been terrible for years and is trying to throw off that reputation.

As you said about the Bears, it is hard for any team to be down its quarterback and running back and be successful, yet the Raiders had that and more, yet were just a tiebreaker away from winning their division. Despite the fact that their division is the AFC West, the Raiders were impressive nonetheless. Maybe Stally does not think much of this team, but I have high hopes for this team in the future. They have stock piled young talent and might actually have a franchise quarterback.

All I will say about the Cardinals is that they are a total mess and they need to find a way to get rid of Kolb, and quickly before they have to give him a roster bonus.

I won't try to rank any of these teams because there is not much of a point as of now. All of these teams should look significantly different after free agency and the draft, except for the Raiders who basically will not have a draft class in 2012 thanks to all of their trades. How these teams will perform in 2012 and beyond will have a lot to do with this offseason. As always, it will be fun to watch which teams rise to the top and which sink with the dregs of the NFL.

Conference Championship Week

2012-01-22T12:46:00.000-08:00

Brady and Belichick know how to take
care of business in the playoffs. (AP)

Austen: Wow, what an atrocious week I had going 0-4 with my picks in the Divisional Round. The Saints' offense went turn over crazy, the Broncos showed why I thought they were going to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, T.J. Yates threw three interceptions (two of which were thanks to some horrible decision making), and the Giants surprised even me with what they are capable of doing.

This week, we have again some equally perplexing matchups. All of these quarterbacks left were first round picks except for Tom Brady, and two of which (Joe Flacco and Alex Smith) still have a lot left to prove to their team before they are considered the franchise quarterback. Two of the top quarterbacks in the league face off against two of the best defenses in the league and we will see if defenses can still win championships. Let's dive in.

Stally (Twelve-Point Pick) - @New England over Baltimore

Stally: The Patriots showed me something they hadn't all season in beating Denver last week. They looked rested and refocused and dominated the Broncos on both sides of the ball. You can say what you want about Tebow's struggles, but you can't ignore Brady's six touchdown passes against a defense that had been a strong point for the team.

The Ravens haven't played many great teams, and especially great quarterbacks. Sure, they put the clamps on Ben Roethlisberger twice, but they were torched by Philip Rivers just last month and that Chargers offense is similar in style to New England's. I personally don't think they were any better than T.J. Yates' Texans last weekend and would view this as a significant upset. Baltimore's only chance would be to kick the Pats in the mouth like they did in beating them two years ago in the playoffs and make them play catch up.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34-23.

Austen: The Ravens have everything they need to stop Tom Brady. They have one of the top pass rushers in the league in Terrell Suggs, who can rattle Brady and make him throw the ball earlier than he would hope. They have a cornerback who has the ability to shut down Wes Welker in Lardarius Webb, who might be the most underrated corner in the league right now. They have two playmaking safeties in Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard and combine that with soon to be Hall of Famer middle linebacker Ray Lewis and they have a pretty solid shot at shutting down those two explosive tight ends. Also, Haloti Ngata will shut down any hopes the Patriots have of utilizing their run game. Do not expect to see Aaron Hernandez running the ball numerous times because Ngata will destroy him.

The Patriots have been awful on defense all year long, so Joe Flacco has the chance to have a very good day. The Patriots should not get a false sense of confidence from holding Tim Tebow to 10 points last week because Flacco is much better than Tebow. The Patriots safeties are so bad in pass coverage you would have to assume that Flacco will look for Torrey Smith deep down the field early and often, which will open up lanes for the Ravens run game. Which brings me to Ray Rice, who could be the difference in this game much like he was a few years ago when he broke off a 70+ yard touchdown on the first play of the game, giving the Ravens a head start that the Patriots could never recover from.

All that being said, there is still a big difference between being able to beat someone and actually doing it. The Ravens have been awful on the road all year long, losing to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, Chargers, and almost the Cardinals all on the road. That is not a very impressive line up since only one of those teams was above the .500 mark, which was the Titans who got to play both the Colts and Jaguars twice and even lost to the Colts one of those times!

I really think Flacco will have at best a mediocre game and cost his team a shot at the Super Bowl. The Patriots made numerous bold adjustments last week against the Broncos, like moving struggling cornerback Devin McCourty to free safety and getting wide receiver/punt returner Julian Edelman more snaps at cornerback. It are these types of Bill Belichick adjustments that make the Patriots consistently one of the best teams in the league and is why Belichick is one of the best coaches of all time. I see a 31-20 win for the Patriots, unfortunately.

Austen (Twelve-Point Pick) - New York-G over @San Francisco

Austen: After jumping off the bandwagon last week, I am right back on it with the Giants. I knew the Giants were capable of such a performance as last week, but I did not think they would be able to put it all together on the road in Green Bay and find a way to stop Aaron Rodgers with all of his weapons. The Giants' offense is playing as well as any of these offenses left in the playoffs and they are finally finding a way to run the ball efficiently, which was what killed them in a lot of games this season. However, against such a fierce 49ers run defense, it is going have to be Eli Manning once again who generates the majority of the Giants' offense if they have any hope in this one. The Giants' offense has to focus on not turning the ball over and being physical enough to hopefully tire out the 49ers' defense so that that top ranked defense might falter towards the end of the game.

On the defensive side, Alex Smith has to be looking at that Giants' defensive line and be wondering how he is going to come out of this game alive. Smith took a beating against the Saints, who do not have a single pass rusher nearly as good as the Giants third best defensive end. The 49ers' offensive line is built to run the ball, meaning they are big and physical. However, they tend to struggle in pass protection, allowing Smith to be sacked 44 times in the regular season and four more times last week. The Giants have to find a way to stop Frank Gore and the run game and put the weight of the offense on Smith, who might have a tough game against a secondary that has been getting progressively better every week.

The 49ers only hope in this game is if they can run the ball effectively and cause Eli to make some critical errors, which has basically been their game plan all season long and it has paid off with 14 wins. It should be a close one and definitely a great game to watch, especially if you like defensive play. I look into my crystal ball and see a 24-16 win for the Giants.

Stally: Ok, I think we're on similar pages here, except that you suggested at different points that both teams have only one hope of winning this game, and let me remind you that one of these teams will win tonight. I did pick the Giants this week and I am picking them again. However, I had reservations about taking the Saints to win at Candlestick last week and I'll give the 49ers the same credit this week. While I don't think the Niners will win, they have the strong defense and enough offensive playmakers to make them a tough beat against a good team.

Unfortunately for San Fran, New York is very well rounded on offense and defense, with their biggest weakness being the pass defense. Too bad for the 49ers that their passing attack is probably their biggest weakness, so they can't really exploit the Giants deficiency. I'm excited for this game as I think it will be close but that, ultimately, Eli Manning will validate the "Elite" status that's been placed on him.

Score Prediction: Giants 27-24

Peyton Manning Done?

2012-01-18T13:41:00.000-08:00

Austen's Goal Line Stand:

This might be the best we get out of Peyton
Manning for the foreseeable future.

It has been many weeks since I have done one of these, but there really just has not been too many issues I have felt strongly about so I have kept my mouth shut. However, it seems about the right time to start talking about 2012 and what that means for Peyton Manning.

I have been saying for a long time now that Manning's injury is more significant than the Colts have let on. In the NFL, when it comes to injuries, no news is bad news. If there had been any improvement or any sort of progress, we would have heard about it.

The media is constantly desperate for more stories in the NFL (heck even Pacman Jones pleading to a misdemeanor is still a storyline). If Peyton had been seen even throwing a football on his front lawn, that would have been big news. This means he still is not even close to being able to practice on a football field. Considering how much time he has already had to recuperate, this does not bode well for his future as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

If anyone could come back from such an injury, it would be Peyton, who works harder than probably anyone else in the NFL. However, considering how complicated a neck injury can be (i.e. complicated enough that Peyton took a trip to Europe in order to have experimental surgery that seeming did not work) and Peyton will be turning 36 in a few months, it seems unlikely that we will ever see Manning playing at the same level we have seen in the past.

Even if Peyton returns to the field, what type of shape will he be in after being unable to do any sort of football activities for over a year? It could take an entire year for Peyton to just get back into football shape and at that point whatever team he is on will have a 37 year old quarterback with huge injury concerns.

Quarterbacks tend to decline rather quickly once they are past their prime. Look at Donovan McNabb, who only a year removed from a Pro Bowl season could not last six full games as the starter in Minnesota, a team that went 2-12 without him yet was still happy to release him. There were signs of Peyton's decline even before his injury in 2010. He threw 11 interceptions in a three game span, which I believe was the worst three game span for any quarterback ever. On top of that, he again faltered in the playoffs and lost in the Wild Card round to the Jets.

The Colts cannot afford to pass up on a prospect like Andrew Luck and bet on Peyton returning to full strength, and I do not think there is any way a new GM and coach would do such a thing. I am sure that the Colts will try to keep Peyton and draft Luck, but it would be very difficult to fit the two of them under the cap, especially since the Colts have so many player who will be entering free agency.

No matter where he ends up in 2012, Peyton will have to take a huge pay cut, the Colts paid him over $20 million to not play football this season. If he is traded or released, he should only be looking at teams with very strong offensive lines as to avoid reaggravating his neck injury. He will also be taking a huge risk coming back because I am sure there are severe consequences to his neck injury worsening that could effect the rest of his life.

I hope that Peyton will be starting again in 2012 so that I can continue to root against him, but I hope his intense competitiveness does not rush him into coming back and cause him to have an injury that has a negative impact on his future. He could make a lot of money as a commentator or coach, not like he needs the cash, but he will definitely have a lot of career opportunities beyond football. So no matter what Manning fans/haters, Peyton will be around the NFL in some way for a long time to come.

Divisonal Round

2012-01-14T13:06:00.000-08:00

Drew Brees may be out of the comfort of the Superdome, but
he has been unstoppable all year and that should continue.

Neither OXen managed to go perfect last week. Both foresaw the outcomes of the NFC games with New Orleans and the Giants running away from their opponents. However, split opinions on the AFC led to a split decision. Stally was right that Cincinnati ultimately couldn't stick with Houston, but Austen's Tebow pick paid off when the Broncos beat the Steelers on the first snap of overtime.

This week, there are again a couple differing opinions and a couple concurring ones: the Saints are again the go to team this week.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - New Orleans over @San Francisco

Austen: This was really the only game that I was confident in my pick. Drew Brees has been on an absolute tear down the stretch. I know the 49ers have most likely the best defense in the league but with all the rules changes in football, that old statement "defenses win championships" is dead and gone. Teams live and die by their offense these days. Take a look at the Packers. They have one of the worst defenses in the league and they only lost one game all year long! The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC and they too have a pitiful defense.

The Super Bowl winners of late have all been offense heavy teams. Yes, the Packers and Steelers had great defenses last season, but they also had top-five quarterbacks. I really think Alex Smith will take too many sacks in this game for the 49ers to pull out a win. At best the 49ers will keep it close in a defensive battle, but who are you going to bet on making the play at the end of the game to win it, Smith or Brees? Yea, I'm siding with Brees.

Stally: I'm siding with Brees as well, but I was under the impression we'd pick the AFC teams first and then move on to two NFC games that I could see going either way. If this game were in New Orleans, the Saints would be a clear favorite, but the outdoor game at Candlestick will definitely favor the Niners. That said, do I think San Fran has enough to where it can translate that favorability into a win? No, I do not. I'm also taking the Saints, but not with nearly as much conviction as Austen.

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @New England over Denver

Stally: This is kind of a no-risk pick for me. Let's be honest: if the Patriots lose, I'll be far too disappointed to care that I lost the pick in Stubborn OXen. The Patriots torched the Broncos in Denver last month and I have a hard time believing that Tim Tebow can field an offense that keeps up with Tom Brady. Yes, the Pats pass defense has been atrocious but, unless you live in a cave, you know that while Tebow might be God's gift, he's certainly not so for passing.

Austen: The Patriots may have beaten the Broncos earlier in the season, but that game was a lot closer than the 41-23 outcome indicates. The Broncos were up 17-7 early in that game before they completely fell apart on both offense and defense. The Broncos have a legitimate shot at winning this game, whether or not Stally is willing to come to terms with that or not. Tebow was absolutely amazing against the Steelers last week and he was without his top receiver for almost the entire game and it was against the top ranked defense in the entire league.

The Patriots defense has been horrendous all season long and losing their top pass rusher/only pass rusher, Andre Carter, for the rest of the season hurt them even more. If Tebow can average over 30 yards per completion against the Steelers, think what he is capable of doing against this defense. The Broncos ability to run the ball, they were the number one rushing offense in the league, also keeps Tom Brady off the field, so if he falters early in the game, it could be a long day for Patriots fans. The Patriots should win this game, simply because they have Tom Brady, who clearly is Jesus' favorite football player, but I will side with the underdog and stick with the Tebow magic.

Stally: Ok, you're just being a roader (the opposite of a homer). You're picking Denver because you want to, not because you think they'll win. If you asked me at any point the second half of the season, I thought Demaryius Thomas was the number one WR in Denver since Brandon Lloyd got traded, so I'm not sure at what point you thought Eric Decker was the best.

Austen: Decker has more yards, more catches, and twice as many touchdowns as Thomas this season. Decker fell off a bit at the very end of the season, which was when Thomas came on strong, but that was because he was banged up. There's no denying that Decker was the better receiver this season, Thomas is just way more explosive.

Also, I picked the Broncos because I have to make some bold moves to try to catch up at least a little in our point totals!

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - @Green Bay over New York-G

Austen: If the Giants win this game, it will be because Jason Pierre-Paul has a career day. He has been amazing all season long and is still in the running for defensive player of the year, but Aaron Rodgers is so hard to get to on a consistent basis. He makes such fast decisions and has the ability to escape pressure, so every time you sack Rodgers is an enormous win for any defense.

Eli Manning has been Mr. Clutch all season long, but Rodgers was the one that had an amazing drive in the fourth quarter to beat the Giants at the end of their last matchup in Week 13. When it comes down to it, I think the Packers defense is better than the Giants, despite their inability to stop the pass, and Rodgers is better than Eli. If that's the case, then it is going to take one hell of a game by the Giants special teams to pull off a win against the Packers. Oh and don't forget rookie Randall Cobb can take one to the house on special teams as well, so I would give the Packers the edge in that department as well.

Eli would have to have a perfect day in order just to keep up in this game, but I think it will be a defensive player who will make the difference in this game. I am not sure who it will be but most likely it will be Pierre-Paul, Charles Woodson, or Clay Matthews. Just a hunch.

Stally: Ok, let's set a few things straight. First of all, Aaron Rodgers was sacked 36 times, that's tied for sixth most in the NFL. Their offensive line is their weakest link (Matt Flynn took another five sacks on the season. Consider that those sacks took place despite Rodgers mobility and that the Giants defensive line is what won them Super Bowl XLII over a New England team that was similarly offensively strong and we're talking upset.

Eli Manning doesn't need to play out of his shoes to torch the league's worst pass defense. As much as I think this matchup resembles Super Bowl XLII, it isn't. Manning is far better than he was then, as both of us considered him worthy of MVP discussions, and I like his targets better now than I did then. The Giants almost beat the Packers 42 days ago, but lost 38-35. In Super Bowl XLII, they beat the Patriots 37 days after nearly beating them and losing by a score of...38-35. Giants win this one.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - @Baltimore over Houston

Stally: I think Houston has more of a chance than for which most people are giving them credit (and Austen will break that down). However, I think that a tough defense and a strong home-field crowd will rattle T.J. Yates. The game should come down to perhaps the two most electrifying and versatile backs in the NFL, the Ravens' Ray Rice and the Texans' Arian Foster. Houston ranks second in total defense, while Baltimore is third, but the Ravens hold the advantage in both run defense and points against, so I'll give the home team the advantage.

Austen: If Joe Flacco's past performances in the playoffs are any indication of how he will play in this game, the Texans have a huge advantage. He has been, at best, awful in his post season performances so far in his career. He is the anti-Mark Sanchez and seems to always play his worst when it matters the most, especially the playoffs. He changed that a bit by beating the Steelers twice this season, but that first matchup had nothing to do with him and everything to do with the Steelers turning the ball over seven times. Him whining about not getting enough credit for the Ravens' success and trying to compare himself to Tom Brady and Drew Brees definitely did not do him any good with the media or probably with his teammates.

I think Ray Rice will need to have a huge day to pull off a win for the Ravens, because I do not think he will get much help from the passing game. The Texans completely shut down AJ Green last week against the Bengals, who is significantly better than any receiver on the Ravens. Both teams are going to have a hard time getting anything going on offense in this one, but I think the Texans have the edge because they have the best receiver in football with Andre Johnson and the best running back in the NFL with Arian Foster (and yes I am saying he is better than Adrian Peterson). Also don't forget that the Ravens corners are still mediocre at best and can be beat.

Stally: I'm not going to lose any sleep over you saying Foster is better than Peterson...

Pick 'Em

New Orleans @ San Francisco - Sat, 4:30 p.m. (FOX)

Stally: New Orleans

Austen: New Orleans

Denver @ New England - Sat, 8:00 p.m. (CBS)

Stally: New England

Austen: Denver

Houston @ Baltimore - Sun, 1:00 p.m. (CBS)

Stally: Baltimore

Austen: Houston

New York-G @ Green Bay - Sun, 4:30 p.m. (FOX)

Stally: New York-G

Austen: Green Bay

Wild Card Round

2012-01-07T16:48:00.000-08:00

The Saints crowd noise is tough for any
team to deal with, especially one that
has not made the playoffs since 1999.

Well it is finally here. It is playoff time. The reason every team in the NFL plays those pesky 16 regular season games. The Texans have their first ever playoff berth, the Lions make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade in which they have been consistently one of the worst teams in the league, and Tim Tebow sneaks the Broncos into the playoffs after losing three straight games.

The beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen. The Packers, Giants, and Steelers have all won the Super Bowl as six-seeds, maybe the Bengals or Lions will do the same? Let's take it slow and take it one week at a time. Stally and I drafted our pick for this week, so here they are.

Stally: Just a note from me. I had a busy Saturday with a trip to Boston for a big hockey game against Vancouver, so sorry I wasn't able to weigh in before the games. I'm writing my comments on Sunday morning (and Austen's responses as well).

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Detroit

Stally: The Saints haven't lost at home all season. I heard a stat on Bill Simmons' B.S. Report that the last three times the Saints were favored by double-digits at home, they covered the spread all three times. They were favored by double digits again in this one, so I took 'em. I figured the Lions would put up a fight, but of all four games, this was the only one where I couldn't see one team (Detroit) beating the other.

Austen: I completely agree with Stally, and clearly we were both right. I knew the Lions would be impressive, but there is simply no stopping Brees in New Orleans. I cannot wait to see how he plays in San Fran against probably the best defense in the league. We will see if it is offense or defense that truly wins championships.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @New York-G over Atlanta

Austen: After the Saints fell off the board, this was the only game in which I was not taking the clear underdog so I pulled the trigger with the Giants. The Giants' defense seems to have gotten back on track and have been playing pretty well the last few games. I think Eli Manning has yet another fantastic fourth quarter and that will be the difference in the game. Matt Ryan has not been very impressive in his two starts in the playoffs so far in his career and I do not think he can pull off a win in the windy Meadowlands.

Stally: I thought this game should have fallen to the final pick. Along the lines of what you said, this was the only game that didn't have a clear favorite. I agree with the choice of the Giants and since you went in the opposite direction on the final two games, your decision makes sense. That said, you spent a lot of point on a New York team that really isn't much better than its opponent, and finished with a lesser record (9-7 compared to Atlanta's 10-6).

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - Pittsburgh over @Denver

Stally: There's a reason why the Steelers past the first two picks despite being a clear favorite. They're somewhat injured and they're going on the road. I think that Pittsburgh is definitely the choice, but this has shaped up much like last year's New Orleans at Seattle game. The Saints were the clear favorite in that one, but weird things can happen when the underdog is playing at home. I'm going with Pittsburgh, but proceeding with caution. I'll let Austen make an argument on why Denver could win this game...

Austen: I think this game will be by far the most boring of all the Wild Card matchups. Both of these teams have struggled heavily on offense the last few games of the year. Since Ben Roethlisberger's injury, the Steelers have almost lost to the Browns twice. I do not care if that is a division rivalry because the Steelers always destroy the Browns and the Browns are one of the worst teams in the league this year. Roethlisberger is way more injured than he is letting on and his best/only decent offensive lineman, center Maurkice Pouncey, is out for this game. Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are pass rushing beasts and I really think they will be the difference in this game. With Rashard Mendenhall out for the rest of the year, the Steelers will have to rely heavily on their passing game to win this one, and I think that is what will give the Broncos the edge in this one. However, I am expecting Tebow to be decent and not turn the ball over 3+ times, which has been the reason they have lost the final three games of the season.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - Cincinnati over @Houston

Austen: Well, I just finished watching this game blowing up in my face. I really thought Andy Dalton would out duel T.J. Yates, or at least make less mistakes than him. I was dead wrong, and Dalton threw three interceptions and had possibly the worst day of his career. The Texans defense came up huge for this team, especially J.J. Watt, who had the most impressive pick-six I have ever seen a defensive lineman pull down. Arian Foster completely dominated this game and made life easy for Yates. It will be interesting to see if he can have a similarly impressive performance against the Ravens next weekend. The game was much closer than the 31-10 final score indicated, but it was the Texans that made the plays that mattered all day long. I will be rooting for the Texans throughout the rest of the playoffs.

Stally: Really, you won't be cheering for your fellow Giants? Oh well...I picked up another stat from The B.S. Report and FootballOutsiders.com's Aaron Schatz: the Bengals ranked in the mid-20s in DVOA, while the Texans were a top-five team. I don't know that much about football's sabermetrics, but I do know enough to say that if the Bengals weighted stats rank them in the bottom third of the NFL, they're a team I should stay away from in the playoffs. Cincy played an easy schedule with a win over the 9-7 Titans being the only one against a winning team, and I wasn't surprised they didn't pull this one out on the road.

Pick 'Em (Two-Points)

Cincinnati @ Houston - Sat., 4:30 p.m. (NBC)

Stally: Houston

Austen: Cincinnati

Detroit @ New Orleans - Sat., 8:00 p.m. (NBC)

Stally: New Orleans

Austen: New Orleans

Atlanta @ New York-G - Sun, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

Stally: New York-G

Austen: New York-G

Pittsburgh @ Denver - Sun, 4:30 p.m. (CBS)

Stally: Pittsburgh

Austen: Denver

Playoff Bracketology

Here's a look at the playoff brackets. It's one-point for a correct Wild Card Round pick, two for the Divisional Round, four for the Conference Champion and eight for a correct pick of the Super Bowl winner.

Stally

Wild Card

3. Houston over 6. Cincinnati

5. Pittsburgh over 4. Denver

3. New Orleans over 6. Detroit

4. New York-G over 5. Atlanta

Divisional Round

5. Pittsburgh over 1. New England

2. Baltimore over 3. Houston

4. New York-G over 1. Green Bay

3. New Orleans over 2. San Francisco

Conference Championships

Baltimore over Pittsburgh

New Orleans over New York-G

Super Bowl

New Orleans 38, Baltimore 20

Austen

Wild Card

6. Cincinnati over 3. Houston

4. Denver over 5. Pittsburgh

3. New Orleans over 6. Detroit

4. New York-G over 5. Atlanta

Divisional Round

1. New England over 6. Cincinnati

2. Baltimore over 4. Denver

1. Green Bay over 4. New York-G

3. New Orleans over 2. San Francisco

Conference Championships

2. Baltimore over 1. New England

1. Green Bay over 3. New Orleans

Super Bowl

Green Bay 28, Baltimore 20

***If I had correctly pick the Texans in the Wild Card matchup, I would have had them going to the Super Bowl. I think they are a bad matchup for both the Ravens and the Patriots (especially the Patriots), and do not be surprised if they take their first ever playoff berth all the way to the Super Bowl.

The 2011 OXen Awards: MVP + LVP

2012-01-06T18:51:00.000-08:00

Eli Manning had a great year, but it was
the season of Aaron Rodgers. (Getty)

The 2011 regular season is over. The Broncos, the Bengals and the Lions are headed to the playoffs. The Chargers, the Jets and the Eagles are not. The San Francisco 49ers went 13-3. The Indinapolis Colts went 2-14. Before we dive into the playoffs, the OXen would like to hand out their regular season awards for the Most Valuable and Least Valuable team assets.

It's important to note the difference between the Most Valuable Player and Most Outstanding Player. College football awards the Heisman Trophy to the player deemed most outstanding. However, the NFL awards the MVP and by definition, it should be awarded to the player who had the most value to his teams success (or in the case of the OXen-created LVP, it should go to the one that is most detimental.

Most Valuable Offensive Player

Stally: I have a tough time with this one. Many people think that it should obviously be Aaron Rodgers, they're the kind of people that ignore that Drew Brees set a record for most yards and for most completions in a season. Brees also had more touchdown passes and fewer sacks. It's also worth noting that Rodgers back up, Matt Flynn, passed for 480 yards and six touchdowns in Week 17, which seems to diminish that "most valuable" tag."

If I got to cast votes for first through fifth place, here's my list in reverse order.

Honorable Mention: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants

5. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans - Foster was one of the few consistents for a Texans team that won its division despite ending up on its fourth quarterback by Week 17 and missing star WR Andre Johnson for much of the year. Yes, Ben Tate was certainly a viable replacement in the times Foster was dinged, but Foster was the milkman in delivering the Texans to their first-ever playoff berth and led non-QBs with 141.6 yards of production per game.

4. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens - Unlike Foster, Rice didn't have a viable back up. He was the glue for a 12-4 team that was plagued by the feast or famine of QB Joe Flacco's inconsistency. Rice's 129.3 average all-purpose yards ranked third behind Foster and Buffalo's Fred Jackson (who didn't play the whole season).

3. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots - Brady didn't have the unanimous MVP season he put together last year, but he broke Dan Marino's long-standing passing yards record for a season (although he finished behind Brees). He was the rock that he's always been for the Pats and, with the defense as bad as it was in New England, they needed everything they got from him.

2. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints - The determining factor for me in Brees vs. Rodgers was that, as Bill Simmons pointed out on his B.S. Report podcast, Brees played 11 games in a dome (Rodgers played just three). Sure, he's phenomenal anywhere, but it's pretty easy to put up gaudy passing stats when there's no weather with which to contend.

1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers - Yes, I'd still take my boy Brady over him, but Rodgers would win the award for being the Most Outstanding Player in the league right now. He's also the most valuable. He can makes fantasy studs out of the likes of Jordy Nelson and James Jones and when all else fails, he can make plays with his feet. He registered 60 rushes for 257 yards and three TDs (Brees was just 21/86/1).

Austen: Wow that's a lot to digest. Instead of coming up with a list of my own, I will simply comment on Stally's top six because all six of these guys are definitely worth talking about. The only other guys I think could be on this list are Ben Roethlisberger, Fred Jackson (who Stally briefly mentioned) and LeSean McCoy. Big Ben has been the sole reason the Steelers have been productive on offense at all this season, Jackson's injury sunk the Bills' playoff hopes, and LeSean McCoy scored a whopping 20 touchdowns in only 15 games and to me had the best season of any non-quarterback, which includes Foster.

On that note, let's look at Foster and Rice first. I think both were behind, but just barely behind, McCoy on what he meant for his team. Foster and Rice were great, but McCoy was seemingly the only Eagles player who did not give up during their disappointing season. Unlike Foster and Rice, who were both on playoff teams with top notch defenses, McCoy was fighting an uphill battle while his team was falling apart around him. However, he never let up for even a game and broke an Eagles touchdown record that has lasted for about 30 years. Either way, none of their performances were MVP worthy in a season that saw some of the best offense play the league has ever seen.

Now let's break down these quarterback performances. All four of these quarterbacks had MVP-caliber seasons, so it is a shame that they all happened in the same season. However, I do not see how anyone can argue that Aaron Rodgers should not be the MVP this season. He posted the best quarterback rating of any quarterback ever and scored 48 total touchdowns in only 15 games. Add Matt Flynn's stats to Rodgers' in the final game of the season, and he would have surpassed Dan Marino's passing record and broken Tom Brady's single season record for passing touchdowns. Flynn had the best day of any Packers quarterback ever, but you would have to think Rodgers would have been able to put up a similar performance had be started over Flynn. Add that his team only lost one game all year, he has to be the clear choice here.

Tom Brady has been great all season, but he turned the ball over five times in two games against the Bills compared to Rodgers' six turnovers all season long. He also threw for significantly less touchdowns, so I will eliminate him simply because the production and the wins are less impressive than Rodgers.

Drew Brees was part of an offense that set a record for most offensive yards in a single season and he was the main reason why. He had more passing touchdowns than Rodgers, but less total touchdowns and played one more game than Rodgers did. He also was clearly gunning for Marino's record all season as he was kept in during huge blow outs (most notably a 62-7 win over the Colts), so his stats got a little inflated from games in which the other team had given up and he just kept passing. Any other year and Brees would be the MVP, but this was Rodgers' year.

Finally to the only player I really think should be even considered to have a shot against Rodgers for the MVP, Eli Manning. No you did not read that wrong. Stally will say I am biased, but there is no denying what Eli has meant to this Giants team. Eli lead six come from behind wins in the fourth quarter or overtime this season. The Giants only won eight games! This team lived or died by how Eli played and he was pretty darn good all season long.

Stally: They won nine games, Austen, but go on...

Austen: Eli had to overcome a defense that was completely decimated by injuries all year long and was incredibly inconsistent. The Giants have long been a team that wanted to run the ball, yet this season they had less rushing yards and less rushing attempts than every other team in the NFL. The Giants offensive line has been shuffled around all season and they cut two long time starters before the season even began.

All of this would be hard to overcome, but even Eli's receivers have been infuriatingly inconsistent and are one of the worst in the league when it comes to dropped passes. I watched numerous games where all of Eli's interceptions were because of his receivers letting the ball bounce off of their hands and into a defender's.

Stally: Yahoo fantasy sports this year claimed at one point that Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks might be a rare combo of top-10 wide outs on the same team, but, again, go on...

When it comes down to it, I really think Eli has meant more to the Giants than any other player has to his respective team, but Rodgers has simply had too incredible of a season for him to not claim the MVP award.

Stally: It sounds like, based on my definition, you might actually think naming Eli Manning as the most valuable player to his team. I still think it's nutty that you'd take the QB of 9-7 team over a 13-3 team that that had fewer quality playermakers than the Giants. Oh well, we both concur that it was Rodgers year to win the MVP.

I'd also like to point out my Golden Rule that you don't win MVP if you didn't have enough of an impact to get your team into the playoffs. Thus, McCoy doesn't get my consideration as he played for the most underachieving team in the league.

Least Valuable Offensive Player

Stally: There were a lot of players this year that were very detrimental to their teams. Several of them would have performed far better, and in many cases made the playoffs, if the players being relied on hadn't failed miserably. Here's a look the guys I think were least valuable to their team in achieving their goal this season.

Honorable Mentions: Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns; Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets; Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars; Stevie Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills

5. Donovan McNabb, QB, Minnesota Vikings - McNabb only played six games for the Vikes before Christian Ponder took over, but he wasted Minnesota's time. He went just 1-5 and only completed 10 of 21 passes in the single win. He was supposed to give Ponder a year to get up to speed in the NFL; he didn't do that.

4. Josh Freeman, QB, Tampa Bay Bucs - There were a lot of things wrong in Tampa Bay that I documented in a recent Goal Line Stand. However, after throwing 25 TDs and just six INTs for a 95.9 passer rating, Freeman regressed to an ugly 16 TDs to 22 INTs for a 74.6 passer rating. He certainly wasn't of value to the team this year.

3. Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams - Here's an interesting stat: Packers backup Matt Flynn threw as many TD passes (six) in 49 attempts as Bradford did in 357. I understand Bradford was hurt from time-to-time, but considering everyone was picking the Rams to win the division and they finished with two wins, I'm going to point a finger in the direction of the franchise quarterback.

2. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers - How bad was Rivers this year? On Oct. 31, he fumbled a kneel down snap with time expiring in range of a chip shot game-winning field goal. The Chiefs recovered the ball and won in overtime. Rivers was third in the league with 20 interceptions and just 11th in passer rating. If he made a few less bad decisions or simply held on to a snap, the Chargers would have won the nine games required to win the paltry AFC West.

1. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans - Johnson was not only the Least Valuable Player in real life, but also for fantasy owners, like myself. It's sad to look bad and see that, at 9-7, the Titans were a tiebreaker away from sneaking a playoff spot. If Johnson, who finished tied 14th with 1,047 rushing yards (in 2009, he went for 2,006), had played just a little harder in a game here or there, Tennessee would have been in the postseason. He's the bell cow for the Titans and he produced a pretty sour tasting product this year.

Austen: Two guys that I think should be way higher on Stally's disappointment radar are Carson Palmer and Kevin Kolb. Both of these quarterbacks were thought to be the saviors of their respective franchises and both franchises paid extremely steep prices to get these guys on their rosters.

Palmer was thrown into a tough situation, and he responded with very mediocre results. The Raiders had very few options at the quarterback position after starter Jason Campbell went down for the season with an injury. Palmer went 4-5 in his starts with the Raiders, causing them to lose the division lead and blow their playoff hopes.

Maybe it was too much to ask to take this team to the playoffs once Darren McFadden went down for the season, but Michael Bush more than made up for his production in the running game and it was Palmer's turnovers that seemed to cost the Raiders a ton of games. Palmer turned the ball over 17 times in just nine games and that was definitely not what the Raiders hoped for when they gave up a first-round pick and possibly a second rounder as well.

The Cardinals only gave up a second-round pick and a Pro Bowl corner to get their hands on Kolb, who was sought after by numerous teams, but his production was significantly worse than Palmer's. Kolb knocked off the horrible Panthers in the first game of the season before losing the next six games in a row and then going down with an injury, which was one of the big concerns about him.

The Cardinals then went on to win three out of the next four games with Kolb on the sidelines, including knocking off Kolb's old team, the Eagles. Kolb came back to beat the Cowboys, but got injured again during the first quarter of the 49ers game, in which backup John Skelton again stepped in and came up with a big win for the Cards.

Kolb was left on the bench for the end of the season, as it now looks like they will move on with Skelton as their quarterback of the future. You think the Cardinals might be upset about giving Kolb a $60-million contract before the start of this season? That's $30 million a win if he gets cut or traded in the offseason, which seems inevitable. Kolb and the Eagles made off like bandits and there is no question I would vote for Kolb being the LVP of the 2011 season.

Stally: You make an interesting argument, but I'm not going to agree with you, simply because I didn't expect great things from either of the players you named. I said at the time in Goal Line Stand that I disagreed with the trade for Carson Palmer, so it's hard for me to rip the player himself when I think the blame lies in the front office.

As far as Kolb goes, I ranked him 22nd among QBs on my 2011 fantasy football big board. You know how many quarterbacks I took the time to rank? Twenty-two! Rivers was ranked fourth, Bradford 14th, Freeman 16th and McNabb 20th. To me, all four of them were more detrimental to their teams failures than Kolb. Especially, when you consider that an 8-8 finish was better than I expected out of Kolb's Cardinals. I realize he had little to do with the success, but, at the same time, you can't make a case that the team exceed expectations.

Most Valuable Defensive Player

Austen: In a year dominated by offense, it is pretty hard to come up with a list of guys who are worthy of being the top defensive player of the year. There have been plenty of guys who have been putting up big stat lines, but they have done so on awful defenses, so I am really unsure what to think of their seasons. To be the MVP, I think their performance has to the difference in making a mediocre defense at least an above average defense. Either way, I will break down my top guys.

6. Jared Allen: This guy is year in, year out one of the best defensive players in the league. He came half of a sack shy of Michael Strahan's single-season sack record with 22 sacks in 2011 and the only reason he is not higher on my list is because the Vikings were so bad all year long against the pass that it is hard for me to say he made that big of a difference for a team that won only three games. He is still only 29 despite playing eight years in the league and he is still clearly in the prime of his career.

5. Brian Cushing: After an off season in 2010, in which he was suspended for the first four games for taking a banned substance, Cushing boucned back and lead the Texans defense in tackles with 114. He also recorded four sacks, two forced fumbles and two interceptions. He has been a force all year long in the middle of the field for the Texans defense that ranks no worse than fourth in all major categories.

4. DeMarcus Ware: The Cowboys may have missed the playoffs again, but it was definitely not because of the play of Ware. This guy might be the most talented defensive player in the NFL, and he is one of the hardest working and toughest players in the NFL. It is just unfortunate that the Boys do not have a single decent player in their secondary because Ware only needs about three seconds to get to any quarterback. However, the Boys' secondary is atrocious and they are one of the worst defenses against the pass this season, meaning he will not get a shot at the MVP award.

3. Jason Pierre-Paul: This guy had been the breakout defensive player of the year without a doubt. In only his second season after being drafted in the first round by the Giants, Pierre-Paul recorded almost three times as many tackles and almost four times as many sacks as he did in his rookie season, in which he showed a lot of promise. He led all defensive lineman with 86 tackles and was fourth in the NFL with 16.5 sacks. Again, the struggles of the Giants defense as a whole limits his chances of being the MVP, but the Giants definitely would not be in the playoffs had it not been for Pierre-Paul's play.

2. Johnathan Joseph: My final two picks are both players on fantastic defenses, yet their stats do not indicate their play. Joseph was added by the Texans after they could not land Nnamdi Asomugha, which might have been better for the Texans anyway. Joseph has been significantly better than Asomugha all season long and he is three years younger than Asomugha. He has more tackles, more forced fumbles, more interceptions, and three times as many passes defended.

Not to mention the Texans pass defense went from the worst in the NFL to the third best, which has a lot to do with Joseph's play. Even after losing pass rusher Mario Williams, Joseph and the rest of the Texans defense has made up for his absence. Joseph might not be on a lot of people's MVP list, but he is definitely high on mine.

1. Justin Smith: The 49ers defense has been the main reason they have a first-round bye this season and are sitting at 13-3. Their defense only allowed one rushing touchdown all season long and one 100-yard rusher, both of which were Marshawn Lynch in Week 16. The 49ers do have a lot of great defensive players, but with Patrick Willis being banged up a decent amount of the season, Smith has stepped up as a leader and put up a great season.

He recorded almost 60 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and forced three fumbles. He is the 49ers' leader against the run and sets the edge for the 49ers rush outside linebackers to gather up all those sacks. This is one of the most impressive seasons for a 3-4 defensive lineman ever. If I had a vote for the Defensive MVP, I would take the hardest working and most productive player on the best defense in the league, and that all leads me to Smith.

Stally: I'll take a similar approach and respond to what you did in responding the offensive players. Having worked for the 49ers last season, I'm glad you acknowledged Justin Smith. Smith is a hard worker with great talent and consistent performance. I'm glad you're giving him his due by acknowledging his role in resurrecting the defense.

Admittedly, I don't know as much about all the individual defensive players as you do, but the player that really stood out to me was your third pick, Jason Pierre-Paul. He seemed to be raising hell every time I watched him play and I do think that, while Eli Manning had a phenomenal season as well, the Giants wouldn't have made the playoffs without Pierre-Paul.

Overall, I can't really disagree with your arguments for anyone, but let me shed some light on a few more players I thought had a lot of value:

-Tamba Hali was a beast for the Kansas City Chiefs. While he didn't play the same position as Eric Berry, a lot of the defensive weight fell on his shoulders when Berry went out for the year in Week 1.

-I can't see anyway that the Denver Broncos' Von Miller doesn't take home the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. While everyone talks about Tim Tebow, the team got better as Miller emerged and won games because of its defense, not offense.

-Terrell Suggs helped lock down the Balitmore Ravens defense when Ray Lewis was injured and has more or less taken over the reigns from Lewis as the teams beastly linebacker. However, I do think that the defense is good enough through and through that it could survive if Suggs was removed from the equation. I couldn't say that about many of these other players.

Here's my ballot:

5. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings

4. Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers

3. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys

2. Johnathan Joseph, Houston Texans

1. Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants

Least Valuable Defensive Player

Austen: Like I said before, this year has been all about offense. That leads me to believe that there have been a lot of Least Valuable candidates on the defensive side of the football. However, I will highlight my top three players, all of who are defensive backs, two of whom are on my beloved Jets.

3. Eric Smith: The Jets defense has struggled heavily all season long and a lot of that has to do with teams running and passing right at Smith. The reason he has almost 90 tackles is because offensive coordinators singled him out as the biggest weakness in the Jets' starting lineup and did everything they could to exploit his lack of speed and quickness. He could not cover all year long and was awful tackling in the open field. I cannot blame Smith too much because the Jets should have known by now that Smith was not a starting caliber safety. Next season, he should go back to being a special teams player with a limited role on defense, where he belongs.

2. Antonio Cromartie: After signing Cromartie to a four-year, $32 million, he responded with an extremely mediocre 2011 season, in which the Jets completely fell apart at the end of the season due to a lack of chemistry and leadership. Cromartie is extremely athletically talented, but he has no work ethic and is the anti-team player.

His inability to tackle on any sort of a consistent basis makes him a huge liability against the run and makes him a questionable option as a cover corner, since you would like your corner to be able to tackle the receiver once he catches the ball. Cromartie is boom or bust every time he is on the field. He could get a pick six or let a receiver run right past him for 99 yards, like Victor Cruz did against him in Week 16. I would not be shocked if he was not on the Jets' roster in 2012 due to his play and character concerns.

1. Nnamdi Asomugha: I do not think there has been a single more disappointing player this season than Asomugha. Yes, he was on a team that struggled as a whole to get anything going on either side of the ball and he was playing for a defensive coordinator who has spent his career as an offensive line coach, but there was still no excuse for the way Asomugha played all season long. He spent the first eight years of his career in Oakland on a defense that had almost no talent and was one of the best shutdown corners the league had ever seen.

Yet this season, on an Eagles' defense that might have more talent than any defense in the entire league, he seemingly could not cover anyone. He got burned on play after play by mediocre receivers and seemed to have forgotten how to tackle, which had been one of his greatest strengths his entire career. The Eagles definitely were not expecting an 8-8 season with no playoff berth when they gave Asomugha a $60-million contract, along with all of their other defensive free agent acquisitions. With Asomugha going on age 31 next season, the Eagles need to right the ship quickly on defense or else they will be paying a guy $10 million a year during the end of his career.

Stally: I agree that Asomugha takes the cake as his addition actually seemed to be detrimental to the Eagles defense. However, I think you're just being an angry Jets fan on the other two. The Jets ranked fifth in the league in stopping the pass this season, so it's hard for me to think that two of the three least valuable players in the league came from that secondary.

Honestly, the secondary you should have singled out was that of the New England Patriots. That unit will be the end of the team at some point during the playoffs and is the biggest difference between a Super Bowl champion and an early playoff flame out right now. If I had to single out one player, I'd point at Patrick Chung. I still think that the Pats got robbed when they traded Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for the rights to pick him. He finally seemed to justify the trade last year but got beat badly this year and clearly can't be the guy in the Patriots secondary.

I also spent a lot of time watching other teams torch New England's Kyle Arrington. However, I don't feel like Arrington is anything more than an average nickel, so it's hard for me to lay it on the guy that ended up as one of the team's only healthy corners. The third guy, who I do feel like is deserving, is Albert Haynesworth. Like McNabb who didn't finish the season with Minnesota, he didn't provide anything that was promised and he certainly detracted from the Patriots defense whenever he managed to sneak on the field.

Aside from the Patriots, there are a few other players that stand out:
-The Cowboys' Terrance Newman, a.k.a The Human Hurdle, more or less single-handedly blew the Week 17 game against the Giants and lost Dallas a playoff spot. Twice, lumbering Giants jumped over him to pick up some key yards and keep New York drives going.
-Richard Seymour helped pace the Raiders to a record setting amount of penalties and paced a defense that was 29th in both points allowed and yards allowed.
-Former All-Pro Dwight Freeney was nothing special in Indianapolis.
-Lastly, Ronde Barber just needs to retire and let Tampa Bay get a little younger.

Here's my five player ballot:
5. Albert Haynesworth, New England Patriots
4. Richard Seymour, Oakland Raiders
3. Patrick Chung, New England Patriots
2. Terrance Newman, Dallas Cowboys
1. Nnamdi Asomugha, Philadelphia Eagles

We'll be back with more awards soon as we discuss coaches and rookies!

Week 17: New Year, Old Rivalries

2012-01-01T14:23:00.000-08:00

Kyle Orton's return to Denver is
just one of many storylines. (Getty)

It's been a busy time for the OXen around New Year's, which included a ski trip to Stratton Mountain in Vermont this past week. We haven't been getting any Goal Line Stands out, we haven't been updating the Final Score, and we're posting this midway through the first slate of games.

One other thing we're not doing much of: agreeing. Stally got all five disagreements right in Week 16, but it's going to a new level this week with a total of eight (half of the games) dissenting opinions. As Austen and Stally close out their regular season rivalry, it's rivalry week in the NFL as well, as every game is against a divisional opponent.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Atlanta over Tampa Bay

Austen: The Bucs are banged up and playing terribly. The Falcons are at home and should be able to win using a punishing run game to give Matt Ryan enough rest going into their playoff game.

Stally: After getting blasted in New Orleans, I have to assume Atlanta will be out to win this one in hopes they can get out of a Wild Card trip back to the Big Easy.

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - San Francisco over @St. Louis

Stally: First of all, the Niners won't be resting that many of their starters. They need to win to guarantee a coveted first-round bye. Second of all, I'm pretty sure that even if the Niners did roll out their second stringers that they'd still beat a predominantly second-string Rams team. Come on, who knew QB Kellen Clemens was even still in the league!?

Austen: I knew Clemens was still in the league, but I did think he was most likely on the Redskins practice squad. Either way, the Rams should not have a shot in this game, but they did beat the Saints so who knows?

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - @New England over Buffalo

Austen: Brian Hoyer looked good enough in preseason for me to think he can beat the Bills. Last year at this time, the Jets beat the Bills with Mark Brunell and Joe McKnight playing almost the entire game. And the Bills might be worse now than they were at this point last season.

Stally: I definitely like the Patriots, but I'm wary they might rest some players, especially Brady, so I'd rather see Austen pick them.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Carolina

Stally: The Saints haven't lost at home all season. Considering that they need to win to even have a shot at a first-round bye, it seems to me that they won't start now.

Austen: The Saints should dominate this game on offense, but it will be up to their defense to cause Cam Newton to make some crucial mistakes, which is the main reason the Panthers still have not won many games this year.

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - Pittsburgh over @Cleveland

Austen: The Steelers have to win this game to have a shot at the Division title. I think the Steelers will not let up on the Browns one bit.

Stally: Agreed, I probably should have taken this game over New Orleans. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Pittsburgh loses.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - @Philadelphia over Washington

Stally: The Eagles finally started playing like the team we expected them to be around Week 14. Too bad they were 4-8 at the time and already floating belly up in the water.

Austen: Agreed. The Redksins only play well against the Giants, and the Eagles are trying to save Andy Reid's job and give LeSean McCoy the league rushing title.

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - Baltimore over @Cincinnati

Austen: As I said in the Pittsburgh game, the AFC North is still not decided, but the Ravens basically have to win this game against the Bengals to secure the division and a first-round bye. Also I am sure they would love to knock the Bengals out of the playoffs.

Stally: They might like to knock the Bengals out of the playoffs, but if that's their motivation for getting up for this game, they seriously need to reconsider. As you said, the Ravens still have a lot to play for and the situation of their opponent should be irrelevant.

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - Tennessee over @Houston

Stally: It's simple: the Titans have everything to play for and the Texans have nothing. Houston is locked into the three-seed. Unless you see both of Austen's last two picks going wrong in Ohio, the Texans won't jump Baltimore and/or Pittsburgh even if they win. Meanwhile, the Titans playoff hopes come down to a mucky set of tiebreaking scenarios, but the common formula is that they'll all require a Titans win!

Austen: I think the Titans fall flat in this game and the Texans stifle Chris Johnson, making offensive yards hard to get for the Titans. I think TJ Yates proves he is the Texans best option at quarterback this far into the season.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - Chicago over @Minnesota

Austen: The Vikings let the Redskins put up tons of points on them. They cannot stop anyone right now and there is no way the Bears' D let's up 30+ points to this team without Adrian Peterson.

Stally: There's also no way the Bears score more than about 17 points with how bad their offense is these days. I'm taking the Vikings.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - @Denver over Kansas City

Stally: In the if-this-then-that scenarios of the AFC's remaining playoff spots, one thing is easy: Denver just needs to win to clinch its division. Playing at home against Kansas City, if the Broncos can't win this one, they don't deserve to go anyway.

Austen: The Broncos don't deserve to go to the playoffs and I think Kyle Orton will be out for blood against the team that most recently threw him away. Also, between pass rushing outside linebacker Tamba Hali and the Chiefs' underrated corners, Tebow should make enough mistakes to give this one to the Chiefs and cost them a playoff spot.

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - @New York-G over Dallas

Austen: With Felix Jones and Tony Romo banged up, I think the Cowboys could struggle on offense in this game. Eli Manning dominated this defense last time they played, and I think this will be a similar situation. The Cowboys are going to have to find a way to put up a good amount of points in this game because they simply cannot count on their defense stopping Eli.

Stally: The Cowboys flat out don't look very good right now. The Giants are just 3-4 at home this year, but I still think that the location of the game is a big advantage.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - Detroit over @Green Bay

Stally: Whoa! Break from tradition to pick against the 14-1 Packers. However, they have literally no reason to risk injury to any of their star players. Green Bay has the top seed in the NFC locked up and, with the mark in the loss column, are no longer playing for any sort of history. Detroit needs to win to guarantee the five spot and save itself from a probable Wild Card trip to New Orleans.

Austen: I think Matt Flynn will fill in valiantly and lead the Packers to a win over their rivals. Rodgers is amazing, but this is an unbelievably talented team and I do not think they will be sitting any of their starters besides Rodgers, so Flynn has a lot of help.

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - New York-J over @Miami

Austen: The Jets matchup well against the Dolphins and I think they will win a close one. It definitely helps that Reggie Bush will be out of this game.

Stally: It doesn't help that the Dolphins are playing much better football than the Jets right now, though. Since Miami snapped its 0-7 skid the first week of November, they're 5-3; the Jets are 4-4 in that time. I like the Dolphins in this one.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - Indianapolis over @Jacksonville

Stally: If I'm going to pick against Green Bay at home, I might as well take the Colts on the road as well, right? This is a reflection of how bad the Jags have gotten that I'd rather take Indy than them.

Austen: I think MJD dominates this game as he fights for the rushing title. This is the only thing that either of these teams have to fight for and I think the Colts really want that top spot in the draft.

Austen (One-Point Pick) - @Arizona over Seattle

Austen: I shocked Stally with this one as he expected me to bet against the Raiders for the sake of the Jets playoff hopes. I just think John Skelton shows that he is the quarterback of the future for the Cardinals and wins another one for this team.

Stally: Despite how much we rag on them, I think the Seahawks are actually a decently mediocre team. Nothing would better help to emphasize the various synonyms for "average" than a .500 finish. They need to win today to do that.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - San Diego over @Oakland

Stally: Like the Eagles, it's too little too late for the Chargers, but I have to assume that they'll be chomping at the bit to knock out their hated rival to the north. The Raiders will need to win to have a chance at any sort of playoff shot, and San Diego knows that as well as anyone.

Austen: I really think the Raiders will win this game, which is why I let it fall to Stally since I thought he would side with the Chargers. The Raiders have won three straight against the Chargers after losing to them like 13 straight games or something. They have not forgot that run and they will extend their own win streak against the Chargers, who have nothing left to play for.

Pick 'Em

Detroit @ Green Bay - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Detroit
Austen: Green Bay

San Francisco @ St. Louis - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: San Francisco
Austen: San Francisco

New York-J @ Miami - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Miami
Austen: New York-J

Chicago @ Minnesota - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Minnesota
Austen: Chicago

Buffalo @ New England - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: New England
Austen: New England

Carolina @ New Orleans - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: New Orleans
Austen: New Orleans

Washington @ Philadelphia - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Philadelphia
Austen: Philadelphia

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Indianapolis
Austen: Jacksonville

Tennessee @ Houston - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Tennessee
Austen: Houston

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Atlanta
Austen: Atlanta

Baltimore @ Cincinnati - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Baltimore
Austen: Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Pittsburgh
Austen: Pittsburgh

Kansas City @ Denver - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Denver
Austen: Kansas City

San Diego @ Oakland - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: San Diego
Austen: Oakland

Seattle @ Arizona - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Seattle
Austen: Arizona

Dallas @ New York-G - Sun, 8:30 p.m.
Stally: New York-G
Austen: New York-G

Week 17 Coin Toss: Let's Talk About Playoffs!

2011-12-31T09:51:00.000-08:00

Coughlin's job could be on the line
Sunday night against Dallas. (Getty)

Stally: Let's defy Jim Mora and talk about playoffs!

I'll take the NFC to kick off with the coin toss. The only spot that's still up in there poises to be a great Sunday night matchup between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys. But, there's one problem: it's hard to label a winner-take-all game as "great" when the two teams playing are both 8-7.

Theoretically, the AFC West can be won at 8-8, while the NFC East will at least have a team over .500. However, the NFC East is surprisingly bad this year. Can we return the long-lost title of "NFC Least" to this division?

Food for thought: is it getting old seeing these mediocre teams (2010 7-9 Seahawks, 2008 8-8 Chargers) making the playoffs because they won the division? Should there be some change in the system to ensure that, say, the 2008 11-5 Patriots or 2010 10-6 Giants (or Bucs) don't get hosed out of a spot for some team they could stomp all over?

Austen: Let's start off with the NFC East.

The Giants and Cowboys matchup on Sunday could not have more at stake. The winner is making the playoffs, the loser does not.

If the Giants lose in a disastrous fashion, Tom Coughlin could very easily lose this job. I am not saying this would be a deserved firing, but this is the way the NFL works. The Giants have blown their playoff hopes the last two years at the end of the season, and this could be Coughlin's third strike in that regard. Can you believe if the Giants had beaten the Redskins once, they would be the NFC East Champs right now and would be able to use this game as a semi-bye week!?

On the other hand, if the Cowboys lose this game, Tony Romo will surely be blamed no matter what happens and he will again have to sit through an offseason in which he will be highly criticized by both the media and fans about how he cannot and will not ever be a championship caliber quarterback. This type of pressure will cause the 2012 season to be a make or break season for Romo and head coach Jason Garrett.

If the Boys continue to struggle in 2012 as they have over most of the last decade and a half, Romo, Garrett, or both could be gone when 2013 rolls around and Dallas will have a huge rebuilding job ahead of them. Again, this might not be a good idea, but Jerry Jones has done a lot crazier things (giving up basically two draft classes for underachiever WR Roy Williams).

Now onto the playoff rules.

I really believe that teams who win their division should always make the playoffs. Look at last season. The Seahawks came in as the worst team to ever make the playoffs and they had one of the most exciting playoff games in recent memory when they shocked the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints. Anything could happen and teams should be rewarded for being the best in their division.

On the other hand, there might be a way to change the rules so that a seven-win Seahawks would not be rewarded with a home game over an 11-win Saints team. I do not have a clear answer on a way to design the playoffs so that a team who does not win their division could still get a chance to play a home game but I am sure there is a way in which the schedule makers can figure it out.

This would be great for the NFL because it would give teams who clinched there terrible division early in the season a reason to keep playing, so they don't have to go on the road against a wild card team. Also, it gives those wild card teams a shot at a home game, if they can out perform the other division winners.

Basically, it makes all of the games more meaningful for numerous teams and there would be an increase in viewership for those games. This also would make an 18-game season way more feasible. With two extra weeks of football, there would be a lot more meaningless games at the end of the season, unless they made some sort of change like this so there could be more consequences, if you lose a bunch of games after you clinch your division.

I am sure there are other ways of mixing up the playoff positions, like making the worst division leader fight for a third wild card spot instead of just getting in through their division, but I really do think division winners should always make the playoffs. That's just my opinion, as always.

Stally: I'll go back to the original question about the "NFC Least" tag. I do feel that, aside from Washington, all three teams simply disappointed this year. I think the 49ers are here to stay, but I still think the NFC West is the weakest in the conference, pound for pound.

You're definitely right that both teams have so much to lose with a loss today. It's shocking to me that the Giants went as mediocre down the stretch as I said they would and the Cowboys still couldn't figure out how to lock up the division.

In regards to playoff rules, I think that you could take all four division winners and just seed the teams by record. This will be the second straight year that we watch a NFC North team go on the road to play a far inferior AFC West winner.

As far as the mention of an 18-game season, please, let's leave that talk in the dumpster of trashed ideas during the CBA, where it belongs. How many running backs did you lose in fantasy football this year, Austen? Five in the same league, I believe. There's no need to have more regular season games, the attrition is already very bad as it is.

--

The Bengals can roar with a win. (AP)

Austen: Now to the other side of this coin, what can you make out of the AFC playoff picture? The Jets, Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, and Titans are all still fighting for the last two playoff spots and it is anyone's guess who will make it. None of these teams look like a Super Bowl team, but maybe you think differently?

Who is the best of the AFC? I have thought for most of the season the Texans have been the best from top to bottom, but with almost half of their roster injured (I believe there are something like 22-23 players on the Texans' injury report), it would be very difficult for them to win one playoff game, let alone three. So does that mean the Patriots are the best team yet again in the AFC, even with the worst pass defense in the league? Or, is it the Ravens or the Steelers, who have dynamic playmakers on offense as well as stout defenses?

I really think any of these teams could make a strong playoff run because they all have enough deficiencies and inconsistencies that they could all beat themselves any week. What's your thoughts?

Stally: As far as the final few playoff spots, I don't think the Raiders beat the Chargers, so we can give the Broncos the AFC West and move on. The playoff scenarios are a really odd combination. For instance, the Titans actually need the Jets to win to somehow win a tiebreaker over the Bengals.

I think the Jets are the best team among that whole pile of riff-raff, but this isn't the BCS, where some pollsters can just pick a team. There's a system in place and the Jets fall to the bottom of the tiebreakers with most of these teams, so it's unlikely they'll claim the spot. Based on my predictions for the games and my understanding of the tiebreakers, I think the Bengals are going to lose, but still back into the last spot.

Who's the best team in the AFC? The team that's most build on consistency and balance: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots have no pass defense; the Ravens don't have a quarterback that can win big games in clutch situations; the Steelers are a trip to Cleveland away from yet another impressive 12-4 season. Say what you want about them Austen, as I know you always seem to be looking for a dent in the Steel Curtain, but I can't remember the last time the Jets went 12-4!

The Steelers won two Super Bowls in the last decade. They have a clutch quarterback, whose toughness embodies the city's blue collar mentality. They have one of the hardest hitting defenses in the league. And, they have several different offensive weapons to throw a balanced attack at any team (they certainly were able to pass all over New England in a win earlier this year).

Austen: Everyone passes all over the Patriots, just most of them can't seem to beat the Pats.

I had the Steelers going 13-3 before the season started, so its not like I am a Steeler hater or something. In preseason, they looked better than any team I had ever seen. However, in their first game of the season they got absolutely obliterated by the Ravens and Roethlisberger turned the ball over six times himself.

I will give them the benefit of the doubt in that game since it was the first of the season, but they have struggled on defense a lot of this season with both James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley being banged up. If even one of them goes down, this pass defense becomes extremely vulnerable because their corners are big and slow. Troy Polamalu is an amazing player, but he has not been great against the pass the last year or so, and he too has been banged up.

You say that the Ravens do not have a clutch quarterback, but it was Joe Flacco who lead the Ravens to an amazing drive at the end of the game to beat the Steelers, mostly because they simply could not cover the Ravens mediocre receivers.

The Steelers should be the best team in the AFC, but they probably are not going to even win their own division because they could not beat the Ravens once. That is not a great sign because they most likely will see the Ravens in the playoffs at some point in time.

I am praying the Jets sneak into the playoffs because I really do not think any of these teams are that good. Once you are in the playoffs, anything could happen.

Week 16: Season's Greetings

2011-12-24T10:37:00.000-08:00

Sorry for the formatting weirdness. We'll fix it when we can this afternoon.

New Yorkers are guaranteed that one of
their teams will win this weekend. (AP)

It's a busy day for the OXen. Stally has his Alumni Hockey game, while Austen is going to the Meadowlands yet again for the New York rivarly game.

We want to wish a Merry Christmas to all our readers and a Happy Hanukkah to Cougar, Fisch and any other animal named fraternity brothers we might be forgetting. Travel safe, be merry and watch football!

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @Pittsburgh over St. Louis

Stally: Big Ben not starting kind of hurts the aura of the Steelers, but, let's be real, Charlie Batch won three of four for Pittsburgh as a sub last season. Plus, the Rams are terrible. Oh yeah, and the Steelers are at home. I'm still confident with this pick.

Austen: The Rams are bad enough that Charlie Batch would not have to do much in order to find a way to win this one, although the Rams did beat the Saints so who really know what might happen. Steelers should still win big though.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Baltimore over Cleveland

Austen: The Browns are a total mess on both sides of the ball right now and the Ravens really want to win the division this year. They should be motivated enough to at least beat an awful Browns team at home.

Stally: If the Ravens really wanted to win the division, they shouldn't have lost 34-14 to San Diego last week. These divisional games are always weird, especially in the AFC North, but I do agree that Baltimore is a clear favorite.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - @Green Bay over Chicago

Stally: As I said, divisional games can be weird, but not when Caleb Hanie goes on the road to the 13-1 Packers. They might have suffered an ugly loss to the Chiefs, but it's much harder to see Green Bay losing this one than it was at Kansas City last week.

Austen: The Bears are starting Josh McCown at quarterback, which is not a good sign for their offense. I do not think the Bears have much of a shot in this one unless Devin Hester can score multiple touchdowns.

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - @New England over Miami

Austen: The Dolphins are improved, but not improved enough to finish off the Patriots. They might keep it closer than people think, but Tom Brady will be back to his old ways and play like a god at home to make sure they win this one and keep chasing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Stally: I agree that it will be a frustrating game for me to watch, as I'd like to see us blow Miami out by about 30. I also agree that just because it might remain close for much of the game, doesn't mean that there's reason to think the Pats won't pull it out by the tend.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - @Carolina over Tampa Bay

Stally: I couldn't believe I took the Panthers this high! Am I high or are the Bucs just this bad? Well, it's not the former, I'd say that the Bucs are just one of the worst teams in the league. As I said in my Goal Line Stand last week, Tampa Bay is awful right now and Carolina should breeze to this home win.

Austen: The Bucs' offense turns the ball over more often than they score points and all of their best defensive players are injured. Cam Newton should have a field day in this one.

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - Denver over @Buffalo

Austen: The Bills are back to being one of the worst teams in the NFL, where they belong. This will be the coldest game Tim Tebow has ever played, but the Bills run defense is bad enough that he should be able to steamroll them. This one could be a blowout.

Stally: One thing I love about Jets fans is that no matter how bad it gets, they still look at Buffalo and say, "at least we're not as bad as the Bills." As a New England fan, I agree completely. Other than the Big, Bad Patriots, the AFC East is weak and Buffalo only brings it down. Cold weather isn't known to hurt a run game, and Denver should win this one by at least a few scores.

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - @Tennessee over Jacksoville

Stally: What happened to Tennessee last week? Well, they're an inconsistent team with an inconsistent star player in Chris Johnson and we knew that going in to Indy. I think they'll regain some swagger at home against a Jags team that neither of us respect.

Austen: Chris Johnson is banged up and Matt Hasselbeck has been slowed by injuries. I really would not want to touch the Titans in a matchup like this one, but Blaine Gabbert is so bad it is really hard not to bet against the Jags.

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - Houston over @Indianapolis

Austen: Well I already lost this one, but let me at least defend myself. I really did not think the Colts had enough in them to win two games in a row after losing 13 straight. I thought Arian Foster would be able to control this game (he did rush for 158 yards and a touchdown) and I thought the Texans defense would be able to stay strong throughout the game (the Colts' only touchdown came with one second left in the game), so I was pretty close. This is a disappointing loss for the Texans who are still fighting for a first-round bye, but have most likely lost that opportunity with this loss. This game could really come back to bite them in the first round of the playoffs.

Stally: First off, you don't really need to defend yourself for picking a 10-4 team over a 1-13 one, but I did go opposite way. I thought that the Texans threw away that first-round bye with a home loss to Carolina. I also thought that once they got out of the slump, the Colts would play some mediocre football. I took the home team Colts in this one, and my Yahoo! picks will attest to that. I still don't think they're great, but I'm just not jumping on the T.J. Yates bandwagon in Houston.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Atlanta

Stally: This Saints team is dynamite at home. Atlanta is strong in a dome, since they play in one, and definitely have the familiarity to stick with the Saints. However, I need to go with the better team when it's playing at home in front of a great crowd, where it's 6-0 this year.

Austen: Drew Brees has been an absolute monster this season and he has played all of his best games at home. Matt Ryan is going to have to play a perfect game for the Falcons to have a chance in this one.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - @Washington over Minnesota

Austen: I feel disgusting picking the Redskins this high since I could totally see them following up a dominant win over the Giants with a just awful performance. Still, the Vikings have not been able to do anything on offense as of late and their pass defense is atrocious. I see "good Rex Grossman" making enough plays to help them win this game.

Stally: I'm going to go with the Vikings for two reasons. The first being that I think your fear of an awful Redskins performance will be realized. The second being that I just don't think this Vikings team is as bad as their 2-12 record suggests and this is the kind of winnable game that could support that notion.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - San Diego over @Detroit

Stally: I think that the Chargers waited just a little too long this season to turn on the late season electricity. However, I do feel like the Lions are about in cruise control with a playoff berth looming and that the Chargers are (finally) playing as one of the better teams in football.

Austen: Both of these teams are so inconsistent and explosive on offense, you really don't know what could happen in this one. This might come down to whoever scores last.

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - @New York-J over New York-G

Austen: I really do not know what to think about this game, but I could say the same about the rest of these games as well. It was too tempting to side with my Jets, who should be able to beat the Giants in a close matchup. The Giants defense has been awful recently and the Giants' receivers have not been able to catch the ball. Revis can catch the ball and Eli Manning might complete more passes to him than any Giants' receiver not named Victor Cruz. This is about the time of year the Jets play well and the Giants fall apart. It just happens to be against each other this time.

Stally: I'm betting everything I own on New York winning this one, but if you're pressing me for an answer, I'm going with the Giants. They blew that game against the Redskins with a series of mental errors, such as a Hakeem Nicks dropped touchdown pass early in the game (another botched one later) and three interceptions from not-so-Eli-te Manning. I just feel like if both these teams play their best games, the Giants are the better team. Considering it's on a neutral field, I'll take the G-Men.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - @Cincinnati over Arizona

Stally: At this point in the year, I think these two teams are about even. However, it's December, so a cold, road game for a desert dweller used to playing indoors isn't a favorable matchup. I'm taking the home team Bengals in this one, especially since they have a playoff berth still in the works.

Austen: The Bengals have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive, and that is exactly why I think they will lose this game. They seem to always drop these types of matchups.

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - @Kansas City over Oakland

Austen: Kyle Orton showed a lot of composure stepping into the starting role for the Chiefs and leading them to a win over the Packers last week. I will side with them at home in one of the loudest stadiums in the country against a Raiders team that is on pace to break the single season record for most penalty yards. Not a great stat for the Raiders.

Stally: I'm still trying to cling on to the Raider bandwagon I missed. I think that the Chiefs got an incredible high off beating the Packers, but I think they could easily let down. Oakland is still in that playoff hunt and I think they have a little bit more talent and will get it done.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - Philadelphia over @Dallas

Stally: Like the Chargers, the Eagles are taking flight too late. They're finally proving why we all thought they could be a great team and possibly might be saving Andy Reid his job. Do they have a realistic shot at the postseason? No, I don't think so, but I do think they'll win this one.

Austen: I agree with Stally that I think the Eagles will sweep the Cowboys. They blew them out the last time these two teams played and they were playing much worse than they are now. This should be a fun game to watch.

Austen (One-Point Pick) - @Seattle over San Francisco

Austen: After a lot of consideration, I had to side with the Seahawks at home over a 49ers team that looks to sit their banged up defensive captain, Patrick Willis. Marshawn Lynch has been in beast-mode for most of this season and I think he will put enough points on the board for the Seahawks for them to come away with a win in a very low scoring game. Could actually be a good game to watch (I can't believe I am saying that).

Stally: We both let this one fall all the way through under the assumption that the other guy would sooner or later bite on a better 49ers team. Neither of us did. It seems like a game that Seattle would steal. They're familiar with San Fran and play very well at home, plus they haven't looked half bad in general. I also will be taking the Seahawks with the upset.

Pick 'Em

Houston @ Indianapolis - Thurs
Stally: Indianapolis
Austen: Houston

Denver @ Buffalo - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Denver
Austen: Denver

Arizona @ Cincinnati - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Cincinnati
Austen: Arizona

Jacksonville @ Tennessee - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Tennessee
Austen: Tennessee

Oakland @ Kansas City - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Oakland
Austen: Kansas City

Miami @ New England - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: New England
Austen: New England

New York-G @ New York-J - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: New York-G
Austen: New York-J

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Pittsburgh
Austen: Pittsburgh

Minnesota @ Washington - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Minnesota
Austen: Washington

Tampa Bay @ Carolina - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Carolina
Austen: Carolina

Cleveland @ Baltimore - Sat, 1 p.m.
Stally: Baltimore
Austen: Baltimore

San Diego @ Detroit - Sat, 4:05 p.m.
Stally: San Diego
Austen: San Diego

Philadelphia @ Dallas - Sat, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Philadelphia
Austen: Philadelphia

San Francisco @ Seattle - Sat, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Seattle
Austen: Seattle

Chicago @ Green Bay - SUN, 8:20 p.m.
Stally: Green Bay
Austen: Green Bay

Atlanta @ New Orleans - Mon, 8:30 p.m.
Stally: New Orleans
Austen: New Orleans

Week 16 Coin Toss: Quarterback Controversies

2011-12-23T14:54:00.001-08:00

There are questions about whether Blaine
Gabbert even cares about winning. (Getty)

Stally: This week, we're going to talk about the quarterbacking future in the AFC South. Fair enough to say that Matt Schaub is the long-term solution in Houston, Matt Hasselbeck is the short-term in Tennessee with the hope that Jake Locker can learn from him and take over at some point. Entering the year, Indianapolis had one of the better QBs of all-time in Peyton Manning, while the Jacksonville Jaguars had just drafted their quarterback of the future, Blaine Gabbert.

The Jags were so confident in the ability of the 10th overall pick that they cut last year's starter, David Garrard. Gabbert ascended to the starting position midway through a Week 2 blowout the Jets, but he hasn't ascended anywhere past that since. His 65.6 QB rating is dead last among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks. He's even worse the Indy's Curtis Painter (66.6).

He completes 50.6 percent of his passes, averages a measly 148 passing yards per game, has thrown just 11 touchdowns in 12 starts and has been sacked 36 times. The one bright spot is that he's still managed to throw more TDs than interceptions (10), but I'm really just trying to find a silver lining here.

The Jaguars clearly put all their kittens in the basket, Austen. He's only a rookie, but he doesn't seem to have shown the same potential that the other rookie QBs have shown (Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Christian Ponder, even Locker, when he got a shot). Is it too early to write him off? Can he still be the future in Jacksonville? Or, do you think the Jags should start looking elsewhere? What's the future of the Jags QB situation?

Austen: Gabbert has very similar passing stats to Tim Tebow, minus the rushing yards and without the winning record. That is a really bad sign.

I will start off talking about Gabbert by giving him a little benefit of the doubt. The Jags have not had a number one receiver possibly ever and their receiving corps might be the worst it has been ever. When punt returner Mike Thomas is your unquestioned number one receiver, and no one outside the state of Jacksonville can name your number two receiver, you know you are in for a long season.

Tight end Marcedes Lewis had a breakout year in 2010 with an impressive 10 touchdowns, finally living up to his expectations as a first round pick. However, he has been slowed by injuries all season and he has disappeared in the passing game almost entirely. I have not watched enough Jags' games to analyze their usage of their tight ends, but they must be using Lewis more as a blocker because of their awful offensive line in a failing attempt to protect Gabbert. This is a huge mistake because Lewis is clearly their most dangerous weapon in the passing game and he could be a huge asset to a young quarterback.

Maurice Jones-Drew is unbelievable and is carrying this entire offense on his back, as he has for years now. This should make life easier for Gabbert to help open up the passing game, but that has not worked at all. Gabbert relies on him heavily, but he still struggles despite having one of the most talented running backs in the NFL to lean on.

Overall, the Jags have to find better options for Gabbert to pass to or else they will never know how good he can be. They also need to improve their offensive line. Whether that's bringing in new players or developing the young guys they have in the locker room, they simply have to get better upfront.

Now let's get to Gabbert's actual performance on the field, which has been nothing but awful. So far this season, he has not shown me a single thing that gives me hope for the future. He looks confused by every defense he plays, makes costly mistakes for his team, and takes sacks like its his job. Most disturbing is that he seems afraid of taking a hit, which is not a good sign for a football player. I know the NFL has really scaled back the violence, but football is still one of the most physically tasking sports in the world. He's going to get hit, especially behind that offensive line, and he needs to get used to it fast.

The Jags should have been wary of a quarterback who started to fall fast in the draft when a lot of teams had claimed he was their top-rated quarterback on their draft board. Instead, they traded up with the Redskins to draft him before the Vikings could get to him.

I was very critical of Gabbert in the draft because at Missouri he ran a very simple offense in which he basically never threw the ball more than 5-10 yards downfield. He basically took a snap out of the shotgun, looked to quickly throw a pass, and, if there wasn't one open within the first 2-3 seconds of the play, he would use his quickness to run for a few yards. This is what he does with the Jags. He drops back, his untalented receivers are not open, and instead of being able to run against terrible Big-12 defenses, he tries to scramble and he gets sacked.

If Gabbert does not improve over the last two games of the season, I could very easily see the Jags taking one of the top quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft. Robert Griffin could be a great addition to this team and he could use his mobility in order to escape the pressure he will see behind that offensive line. The Jags will have a top-5 pick and that could be the perfect landing spot for Griffin, who will rise because of Matt Barkley announcing he will stay at USC for his senior year.

Also, because of the new CBA the NFL and the players signed, Gabbert did not get a huge contract like he would have in years past. The Jags would only have to give him about $7 million to cut him loose, so it is definitely a possibility. Gabbert needs to get better fast in order to keep his job.

Stally: Two things before I talk about Gabbert's skill. First, let's not overlook Jimmy Smith when we talk about the history of the Jaguars' wide receivers. Second off, if you haven't seen the Jags play as much as you'd like, turn on ESPN on Monday nights, and you'll see them play plenty more than you'd like, as they always seem to be on!

I think the problem with Gabbert was that, as you said, he didn't play in a pro-style offense in college and he didn't have any time to learn it coming into the season. The lockout didn't do any wonders and cutting Garrard made Blaine pretty much the guy in northern Florida. At least Ponder in Minnesota and Locker in Tennessee have had some time to season under veteran free agent signings. Gabbert hasn't had the opportunity.

That said, as you mentioned Austen, he just doesn't show any potential. Heart isn't something you learn over time, you either have it or you don't. It's not like hair, that you can gain (or maybe get rid of, hint, hint), it's either there or it never will be. Gabbert hasn't shown much skill, and while that could come along, he just doesn't look like he has the heart to lead a team in the NFL. That's a bad thing!

I think it could be franchise killing to spend two top-10 picks in a row on a quarterback, so I'd recommend the Jags remain open to any possible picks, as they have plenty of weaknesses. However, it's worth noting that the Panthers spent two top-two round picks on QBs in back-to-back years and it was the one they took second (Newton) that seems to be leading the franchise in the right direction. Basically I'm saying, the Jags can't lock in on a QB, but if it's the best value for the pick, they should scoop up another QB.

--

With questions surrounding Peyton's
health, how much longer until the
Colts look toward the future. (AP)

Austen: Now to that other quarterback we have all forgotten about in Indianapolis. Peyton Manning signed a huge contact with the Colts during the offseason, but has yet to play under that new contract thanks to his back injury. With the Colts having no worse than the third pick in the NFL draft, what do you think are the odds of them taking Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck in the draft?

If they have the first overall pick, it looks as if they will take Luck, but would they trade up from the second or third pick to take him if the Rams or Vikings have the pick, who seem invested in their young quarterbacks? If they draft Luck, do they keep Manning and groom Luck, and if so do how long can they keep Manning around before handing the reins to Luck? Could the Colts trade Manning, and where do you think Manning could end up?

This is a lot of speculation, since we are not even sure if Manning will even play again since he has kept his injury progress under wraps. Either way, it is sure fun to think about.

Is Manning or Luck the future in Indianapolis?

Stally: Define future.

Peyton Manning is 35 and, with a March 24th birthday, he'll be 36 by next season. His long-term future is heading to the Hall of Fame and making public speaking appearances. He'll also probably end up as a coach or on-air analyst of some sort. That's his future.

But, in the short term? Assuming Peyton is healthy enough to play next year, his future is in Indianapolis. Let's look no farther than the Blaine Gabbert we just talked about to get a beat on the risks of forcing a rookie into action. If this year's Colts' euthanasia has proved anything, it's that the team isn't ready to be led by a QB other than Peyton.

In the long-term does it make sense to draft Luck? Yes, at this point, I've come around on the idea. I still believe that this year's team proved there are a lot of holes on the team aside from QB. However, the idea of having Andrew Luck, one of the best signal-calling prospects we've seen in years, learn from Peyton Manning, one of the best signal-callers ever, is an intriguing one.

Right now, Aaron Rodgers is playing as one of, if not the, best quarterbacks in the league. Unlike a lot of these short-lived flames, he had the chance to sit behind a legend in Brett Favre and really take grasp of how the pro football offense works works. I also think that the wait fueled some sort of internal fire to prove himself better than his predecessor, which I think he's done.

I do think Manning and Luck can co-exist and I think with Manning's aging, which has happened rapidly this season, that Luck makes a lot of sense for the Colts' future. The one thing I think is ridiculous is the idea of trading Peyton.

He's old for one, and the injuries raise questions for any suitor. Not to mention, he's an institution in Indianapolis. I very much fear the day that Tom Brady retires for the Patriots, who knows, maybe someone other than New England might have a shot at the AFC East. However, I couldn't fathom the Pats trading him to another team. That's like taking your favorite dog outside and shooting him because he's getting slow and has lost vision in one eye. Peyton deserves better from the Colts than to be dragged out behind the woodshed like that. He deserves to retire as a Colt, and I think Indy will show him that respect.

Austen: I really think Peyton hangs around for one more season and then they find a sucker who will give up a first round pick to get their hands on a 36 year old Peyton Manning. I do not know who it will be but I am sure it will not turn out well.

I am really concerned about Peyton's health and I still think there is a good shot at him not being able to play at the start of next season either. No matter what, I think Luck ends up on the Colts in 2012.

A Day Late and A Buc Short

2011-12-18T12:01:00.000-08:00

Stally's Goal Line Stand

Freeman's stock has taken a big hit. (Getty)

It's a day after the Tampa Bay Bucs lost to the Dallas Cowboys 31-15 to fall to 4-10. The final score doesn't do the rout justice, as the Cowboys were on a 28-0 romp at halfime and more or less put it in auto-pilot the rest of the way.

The rough Saturday night home loss comes one week after they lost to the then-3-9 Jaguars by an embarrassing score of 41-14. Not only has Tampa Bay not won many games, but they haven't been in many of them either.

They lost 38-19 two weeks ago to a similarly bad Carolina team, and they've also lost 37-9 to Houston and 48-3 to San Francisco. Forty-eight to three in the NFL!? That's almost as bad as Indy's 62-7 loss to New Orleans!

While Austen and many other analysts saw some sort of sparkle with this team, I always identified it as a pyrite (fool's gold). Sure, they won 10 games last year, but nine of those came against teams with losing records. (The 10th was a Week 17 win over a New Orleans team that was locked in the NFC's fifth seed.) They beat the Browns and Bengals by three and the Rams and Redskins by one. They were far closer to being a 7-9 team than a legitimate playoff team.

The biggest area where people, like ESPN's Bill Simmons, tended to overrate the team was at QB. In the Era of the Quarterback, most passers get a 300-yard game like a complimentary feature of an oil change, but not the Bucs' Josh Freeman. He didn't throw for 300-yards once in 2010. Everyone looked at his phenomenal ratio of 25 TDs to six INTs and anointed him as a star.

Nobody bothered to consider that his 25 TDs barely scraped into a tie for 10th-best in the league. He was below guys like Matt Cassel and Carson Palmer, tied with Joe Flacco and just two in front of the likes of David Garrard and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, by all statistical means, Freeman struck me as a very average, at best, signal caller, that benefitted from a strong defense (ninth-best in points against in 2010) that didn't require him to carry the team to wins.

He's returned to Earth this season. He has just 13 TDs to 18 INTs, that's just ugly. He's probably regressed to the mean and then gone past it, at this point. I do think he's good enough to go 1:1 in terms of TDs to INTs, but I didn't buy his 25 to 6 in 2010, and I've been proven right.

But, let's not solely blame Freeman. The Bucs D is now 31st-best in points against, better than only Indianapolis. Running back LeGarrette Blount has been dinged up and is more of a power runner, and less elusive, than some people seemed to think he'd be (sorry to pick on you...Austen). People like myself that liked WR Mike Williams have been disappointed and only once has a receiver (TE Kellen Winslow vs. Green Bay) gone over 100 yards receiving for Tampa Bay.

All in all, Freeman's on that Mark Sanchez level. He's not terrible, but he isn't good enough to carry a team and needs playmakers and a strong defense to help him out. He doesn't have any of that, and, as a result, the Bucs definitely looks a day late and a few bucks short to being a competent team this season.

Barring large scale changes, I won't give a much better prognosis for next year. Keep in mind that I was the one that said they'd go 6-10 before the year started and even that's looking optimistic right now. With Carolina on the improvement trail, I think they'll finish in last in the NFC South this season and that they might want to get comfortable in that position.

Week 15: Margins of Victory

2011-12-17T15:39:00.000-08:00

Tebow would waste his time praying
to be better than Brady. He'll need
to focus on scoring points! (Getty)

After several dissenting opinions last week, in which the OXen basically tore the sandwich down the middle and each ended up half, their on the same page this week. In fact, if you count out the Bills-Dolphins game that nobody cares about, the biggest argument seems to revolve around how much the Patriots victory over the Broncos will be.

Other than a few good late and/or prime time games, most of them seem to have a decided favorite and no one's really sticking their neck out on a huge upset. Several of these games might end up lopsided. Here's the S.O.B. story for Week 15:

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Atlanta over Jacksoville

Austen: Well the Falcons already blew out the Jags so I won't spend too much time on this one. However, the Jags are a complete mess, especially on offense. They simply can't get anything going and as long as Blaine Gabbert is their starting quarterback, it won't get any better this season.

Stally: The Jags did beat the Bucs 41-14 and Maurice Jones-Drew ran for four TDs last week. However, that's more of a reflection of how bad Tampa has become. I agree, one of the league's best home teams (Atlanta) on a short-week against a poor team was an obvious choice.

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - Green Bay over @Kansas City

Stally: The only reason people really think that this is a trap game is because ESPN's run out of storylines and has decided to build it up as such. Ask yourself this: is there any way you can see Tyler Palko outdueling Aaron Rodgers? (Yeah, I'm laughing out loud right now as well at that notion.)

Austen: Ditto. The Packers could win this game if they started Ryan Grant at quarterback.

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - New Orleans over @Minnesota

Austen: It is tough taking a road team this high, but the Saints are unstoppable in a dome, home or away. It also doesn't hurt that the Vikings have only won two games all year and I cannot see this being their third.

Stally: I agree that the dome really cancels out any disadvantage for New Orleans. If this were in, say, Chicago or Green Bay, or if the Metrodome caved in and they had to play at the home of the Golden Gophers (like last December for the Vikes), it'd be different. It's not; Saints win big.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - New England over @Denver

Stally: Enough about Tebow! Austen and I have said it time and time again that the thing that wins games for the Broncos is the defense. Twice this season, Denver has won games in which they had zero points with three minutes remaining. If that's the case Sunday, it's going to be about 34-0 before they score points. There's no way Denver keeps up with New England's offense; I see a blowout!

Austen: I think Stally is a bit too confident with this pick. The Pats have injuries all over their defense that has been awful with their best players in the lineup, so Tebow might finally get out to a quick start. With Deion Branch out of the game, Broncos shutdown corner will be on Wes Welker all day and they will double team Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady might have a tougher time putting up a lot of points than Stally thinks, but the Pats should still find a way to win this game. I just think it will be close, and Tebow tends to win close games. This one will be fun to watch.

Stally: Ok. First off, I think you're just bitter that the Jets lost the Broncos. Secondly, do you watch the Patriots? Have you ever seen teams double-team Gronkowski? Yeah, it doesn't work. Better try a triple-team and see if you can stop him (in which case Aaron Hernandez would love to pick up slack).

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - @New York-G over Washington

Austen: This is a must-win game for the Giants who need to keep up with the Cowboys in order to win the division. They also lost to the Redskins in the first week of the season. They couldn't possibly lose to the Redskins twice in one year, could they?

Stally: No. I don't think so. If they lose at home to the Redskins, they're not the team we think they are.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - Dallas over @Tampa Bay

Stally: I'm writing this Saturday before the game starts. Josh Feldman gave us some great insight into Dallas' recent struggles in our Coin Toss on Friday. I think we all agree they've just had some bad luck and are much better than expected. I can't say the same about a Bucs team that lost 41-14 to the horrific Jags last weekend.

Austen: My biggest mistake this season has been betting on the Bucs. They have been awful in every faze of the game this season and find ways to lose each and every week. They tend to play better at home, but they do not have much of a shot against an angry and motivated Dallas squad.

Stally: And to think that I was ridiculed for saying the Bucs wouldn't be any good this season...*shakes head.*

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - Cincinnati over @St. Louis

Austen: The middle picks seem to be the spot to bet against the awful teams in the league. I'll start it off by betting against a Rams team that has been worse than anyone could have imagined this season. It is shocking that they have won two games this season with how poorly they have played. The Bengals should get their season back on track against the completely unmotivated Rams.

Stally: I agree. What the heck is wrong with the Rams? I really don't know. They took about three steps back this year, maybe more. Could they beat a mediocre Cincy team at home? Sure, maybe. Will they? No, I doubt it.

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - @Arizona over Cleveland

Stally: We've been losing big points on an Arizona team that is better than we thought it was. Colt McCoy should be out with a concussion for the Browns, and they weren't good with him. I can't see Cleveland winning this one.

Austen: Stally follows my lead and bets against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Browns offense is one of the worst that the NFL has seen in years. Unless they can shut out the Cards, I do not see them winning this game.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - Tennessee over @Indianapolis

Austen: Can you guess why I am taking this matchup? Yup, the Colts are the worst team in the league and they should stay defeated at least another week. I thought for a second that maybe this would be the week the Colts pulled off an upset, but then I realized that Chris Johnson could have one, just one, run that would be able to break the Colts spirit and give the Titans the win.

Stally: The Titans are sporadically good, but frustratingly inconsistent, just like their star RB Johnson (who tanked my fantasy team in the keeper league). I toyed with the idea of taking the Colts, but that hasn't worked for me before, they're always far worse than I expect they can possibly be.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - @Houston over Carolina

Stally: T.J. Yates showed us something in the win over a decent Cincinnati team last week. Carolina's more just showing us that they're still awful. The Texans are a complete team and they'll win this home game.

Austen: I am not betting on Carolina on the road, but this could definitely be a trap game for the Texans. Cam Newton is capable of putting up 30+ points every week, and, without Andre Johnson, do you really think T.J. Yates can produce that much offense, even against one of the worst defenses in the league? However, I still see Newton making just enough mistakes with the football to give the win to the Texans.

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - New York-J over @Philadelphia

Austen: The Jets have to win at least two out of the next three games to even have a shot at the playoffs. Michael Vick is not the quarterback we saw last season and the Eagles run defense is atrocious. The Jets should be able to run the ball 40+ times so that Mark Sanchez does not have to do much to win this game.

Stally: Ok, that's not correct, that's just that nervous Jets' fan talking. The Jets currently own the final spot in the playoffs by a full game and their 6-5 conference record is comparable to all teams chasing them. It's perfectly conceivable that they lose to the Eagles, beat the Dolphins and lose to the Giants and still sneak in. If they win two, I'm giving them that final spot without tiebreaker. That said, if they expect to be considered as a playoff team, they need to beat a team like Philly on the road...I've only rambled because I'm not sure who I want to take...The Eagles are 1-5 at home. They owe their fans a win...I see them getting it.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - Pittsburgh over @San Francisco

Stally: The 49ers are starting to get exposed and have now lost two of three after starting 9-1. This will be a huge benchmark on whether they're elite or not. Here's what I do know: Pittsburgh is elite, so I'll stick with what works.

Austen: There is a solid chance Ben Roethlisberger misses this game and if he manages to play, he will be hobbled. His injury coupled with a long trip across country seems to give the 49ers the edge in this matchup.

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - @Chicago over Seattle

Austen: If the Bears can score 10-14 points, they should win this game. They only put up three on the Chiefs, so that is no guarantee, but they are definitely worth the risk with my second to last pick.

Stally: I think it'll come down to RB Marshawn Lynch. He's about all Seattle has, and, if he can go crazy, the Seahawks can control the clock and force the Bears' Caleb Hanie to play QB (which isn't a good thing). I'll take the Bears at home, though, and expect their defense slows Lynch.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - @Buffalo over Miami

Stally: Miami didn't look good last week at home with Tony Sparano coaching, and I can't imagine they'll be better in the cold whether without him. Buffalo has definitely turned back into a pumpkin, but they can still win some games against a team like fin-less Miami.

Austen: I've got the Dolphins in this one since Matt Moore is bouncing back from a concussion last week. I think the team will rally behind him as he plays for a starting gig in 2012. The Bills have nothing left to fight for and this is the time of the year that they simply fall apart.

Austen (One-Point Pick) - @San Diego over Baltimore

Austen: The Ravens have gotten a little too confident by beating the Steelers twice this season and having an incredibly easy schedule since their last matchup with the Steel Curtain. Another long trip to the West Coast for another AFC North team again makes me think the home team will have an advantage. Also, the Chargers are unstoppable in the month of December and I think they will keep that trend going in order to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive.

Stally: I have a feeling the Chargers will win as well. I see this being one of those classic Ravens' eggs (like the one against the Jags), where they show up totally unmotivated and you just wonder what happened to the team you've been used to watching dominate the AFC.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - @Oakland over Detroit

Stally: I had no idea who I wanted to take in this one. I actually stopped and had a discussion with Austen about it before deciding to go with Oakland. While the teams have different strengths, they're both very similar in terms of being mediocre, borderline playoff contenders. The Raiders tend to have a home-field advantage, so I decided that I'd go with that edge.

Austen: I thought Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford would be back for the Raiders this week and would be the difference in getting Carson Palmer back on track. Moore looks to be back, but Ford has already been ruled out. With Darrius Heyward-Bey banged up as well, I am going to have to side with the healthy Lions, who look to get back Kevin Smith. Smith gives the Lions some balance on offense and that is something the Raiders defense will not be able to handle, home or away.

Pick 'Em

Jacksonville @ Atlanta - Thurs

Stally: Atlanta

Austen: Atlanta

Dallas @ Tampa Bay - Sat

Stally: Dallas

Austen: Dallas

Miami @ Buffalo - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Buffalo

Austen: Miami

Seattle @ Chicago - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Chicago

Austen: Chicago

Tennessee @ Indianapolis - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Tennessee

Austen: Tennessee

Green Bay @ Kansas City - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Green Bay

Austen: Green Bay

Cincinnati @ St. Louis - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Cincinnati

Austen: Cincinnati

New Orleans @ Minnesota - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: New Orleans

Austen: New Orleans

Washington @ New York-G - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: New York-G

Austen: New York-G

Carolina @ Houston - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Houston

Austen: Houston

Detroit @ Oakland - Sun, 4:05 p.m.

Stally: Oakland

Austen: Detroit

New England @ Denver - Sun, 4:15 p.m.

Stally: New England

Austen: New England

New York-J @ Philadelphia - Sun, 4:15 p.m.

Stally: Philadelphia

Austen: New York-J

Cleveland @ Arizona - Sun, 4:15 p.m.

Stally: Arizona

Austen: Arizona

Baltimore @ San Diego - Sun, 8:20 p.m.

Stally: San Diego

Austen: San Diego

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco - Mon, 8:30 p.m.

Stally: Pittsburgh

Austen: San Francisco

Week 14 Final Score

2011-12-17T08:54:00.000-08:00

Other than MJD's four TDs, there
weren't many surprises. (Getty)

It was a good week for the OXen. Austen got all eight of his draft picks correct, while Stally only missed two.

Tampa Bay's loss to Jacksonville was the only one game that both picked incorrectly, amounting to large pick 'em totals for each, despite several disagreements over the games (Austen won that battle 3-2). Austen was able to win the week, thanks to Arizona's big upset over San Francisco, but he still suffers chronically in the season draft, where he falls to 3-11.

Week 14

Draft Picks

Austen 44

8 Draft Wins (perfect) - Pittsburgh (8), Green Bay (7), New York-J (6), San Diego (5), Seattle (4), Denver (3), New York-G (2), Miami (1)

2 Upset Wins - Arizona (6), Jacksonville (2)

Stally 28

6 Draft Wins - Baltimore (8), New England (7), Atlanta (5), New Orleans (4), Detroit (3), Houston (1)

0 Upset Win - none

Pick 'Em

Austen 13-3

Stally 12-4

Season Teams

Stally 9 (18 points)

Atlanta, Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, New England, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

Austen 7 (14 points)

Arizona, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York-G, New York-J, San Diego, Seattle

Week 14 Final Score

Austen 71

Stally 58

Season Totals

Draft Picks

Stally 509

Austen 399

Pick 'Em

Austen 138-70

Stally 133-75

Season Teams

Stally 113 (226 points)

Austen 95 (190 points)

Current Score

Stally 868

Austen 727

Week 15 Coin Toss: Franchise Decisons

2011-12-15T10:22:00.000-08:00

Miami turned the lights off on the coach
that always wore sunglasses. (AP)

Stally: Two coaches were fired this week.

Miami's Tony Sparano was let go after a 26-10 loss at home to Philadelphia. The Dolphins have won four of their last six, but started the season 0-7. Sparano originally got the job in 2008 and led the Dolphins to the playoffs in his first season, thanks in part to the then-revolutionary Wildcat offense that he often ran with RB Ronnie Brown lined up in the shotgun.

Meanwhile, Todd Haley was canned by Kansas City. He was in his third year and the team has dropped five of its last six after starting 4-3. The Chiefs had plenty of injuries to go around and did make the playoffs last year under Haley, but he was just 19-26 in his Kansas City coaching career.

Breaking them down separately, what do you make of the two firings, Austen? Were they justified and would you have made the same decision as the GMs that fired them?

Austen: Let me start with the Dolphins situation. Tony Sparano should have been fired after last season. I am not saying he deserved to be fired, but the Fins went after Jim Harbaugh, failed, and then told Sparano basically, "I guess you are our best option... for now."

You simply cannot do this to a coach and to a team. This makes the coach act irrationally and make decisions for his team to help them in the short term and most likely hurt them in the long term. Also, his firing was inevitable considering they have already tried to replace him, so why keep him around? This was yet another huge mistake for a franchise that has been horribly run for years, and possibly forever.

This Dolphins team has rallied around Sparano and seem to have fought hard pretty much every week, at least recently, so I am not really sure this firing is "deserved," but it was definitely something that had to happen sooner than later so that the team could move on and rebuild.

Haley's firing was much more unwarranted and unnecessary. He led this extremely untalented Chiefs team to a 10-win season last year, winning the AFC West. Yes, they got crushed in the playoffs, but they had no right being there at all with the lack of playmakers they had.

The Chiefs have been awful this season, but they lost Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, up-and-coming pass catching tight end Tony Moeaki, and possibly their best player in speedster running back Jamaal Charles all within the first two weeks of the season. That is a lot of talent to replace immediately for a team that already lacks depth and talent at almost every position. Then, they lost Matt Cassel for the season and had no one behind him besides the completely untested Tyler Palko (there is a reason this guy went undrafted after spending his college career throwing the ball to all star Larry Fitzgerald).

This season, to me, is clearly the fault of General Manager Scott Pioli, who is the man who fired Haley. It is his responsibility, not Haley's, to find talent to put on this team. He has failed miserably at doing so and has clearly used Haley as a scapegoat for his own failures as a GM.

Pioli put together one of the worst drafts I have seen in a long time for a team that had so many holes to fill. He started off by over-drafting receiver Jonathan Baldwin from Pitt in the first round. He looked more like a second round pick because of character questions, which were heightened when he began his rookie season with the Chiefs injured, by breaking his hand during a fight with the Chiefs' team captain Thomas Jones. Not a great start and he has done little to prove he is worth such a high selection.

In the second round, the Chiefs again reached for an interior offensive lineman in Rodney Hudson, who has only managed to start one game at center on an offensive line that has been subpar all year. In the third round, Justin Houston, who was once thought of as a possible first-round pick, fell to them. He has been pretty solid this season, starting seven games at outside linebacker and recording four sacks, but I cannot give them credit for drafting a guy that was clearly the most talented player left on the board.

The Chiefs had five more picks in this draft, but none of these draft picks are at all worth talking about. They have done little or nothing to help this team and have accounted for a whopping zero starts. That is atrocious for what was a pretty talented draft class.

Pioli followed up this draft, which everyone who at all pays attention to the draft graded as one of the worst drafts out of all the teams in the NFL, by doing almost nothing to improve this team. He seemed to be ok going in to 2011 with little talent and no depth at any position.

Sorry to go off on such a rant, but Pioli is a guy who has gotten a lot of credit for doing very little. He is yet another guy who has gotten a great reputation for being a part of Bill Belichick's magic up in New England, but clearly cannot survive on his own.

I am not a big fan of Haley, but he did not deserve to get fired, especially at this point in the season, but that is the politics of the NFL.

Stally: I don't think there's a whole lot to expand upon, as I agree with everything you said. Sparano always did seem to have something mysteriously intriguing about him...but maybe it was just the sunglasses. I always felt like he got the most out of a sub par group, but the writing was definitely on the wall. I thought that the Dolphins had played well enough the second half to possibly save his job, but it didn't surprise me to see him gone.

While you weren't a big fan of Haley, I was. It shocked me that after going to the playoffs last year, he could lose his job midseason, due to one of the worst outbreaks of injuries in the NFL. He definitely earned himself insurance through 2012 with the unexpected divisional crown last season. I don't think that there's a coach the Chiefs will bring in that will do better than Haley has done, so it makes little sense to fire him.

Being the QB with the star on his helmet
can drive Tony Romo nuts. (Getty)

Austen: The more I watch Tony Romo, the more I am confused by what he actually has to offer the Cowboys. I have long been a defender of him, despite hating the Cowboys and the entire state of Texas. However, this season is making me reconsider what I think about this guy. I feel like he has lost more games for the Boys this season than he has won.

Is Romo a top 10 quarterback? Does he have what it takes to get this team to a Super Bowl? Is he simply a good quarterback who just falters under pressure? What do you make of Romo?

Romo. Franchise quarterback or franchise disappointer?

Stally: Before we get going with this question, let me introduce Josh Feldman. Josh writes one of the few blogs we follow, No Joshin'. He's a sports broadcaster and a lifelong Cowboys fan, so he should be able to provide some good perspective on what's going on in Dallas. Now, to my answer...

Tony Romo's a franchise quarterback in my mind. I'm glad he's not running my team, but I have Tom Brady. Thank goodness I'm not, but if I were a Jets fan and given the option of Romo or Mark Sanchez, I'd take Romo without putting much thought into it.

Romo's a playmaker that finds a way to distribute the ball to all the different weapons he has. Sure, he's got some solid targets out there in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, but where would guys like Miles Austin and Laurent Robinson be with a league average QB (like Sanchez)? Probably muddling around as slot receivers like Brandon Stokley after he left the Colts (kinda like the Jets' Jeremy Kerley).

The biggest issue is that Romo lacks confidence late in games. This is a mental issue, and something that's capable of being overcome. It's not a question of talent and it's not something that affects his whole game (like being soft, in Blaine Gabbert's case, for instance). He (and the Cowboys) remind me of my pre-2004 Red Sox. They'd always give me hope that they'd win the big games, but, deep down, I always feared they'd lose it and those fears were usually realized in heartbreaking fashion. But, as the Red Sox have proven, that didn't mean they weren't capable of one day figuring it out.

Tony Romo is basically the anti-Tim Tebow. He plays well for 55 minutes and then has some sort of mental block late that usually results in a stupid decision. The difference between the two is that Romo is legitimately a very talented quarterback and he shows plenty of intelligence and poise for much of the game. If Romo overcomes whatever mental issue he has that hinders him late in games, there's no reason why he and the Cowboys can't be one of the best teams in the league and contend for a Super Bowl. Not only this year, but in the next several.

Austen: Ever since I started watching Romo, I have compared him to Brett Favre because of his gunslinger mentality, and I think that still holds true today. He tends to throw balls into tight coverage often and makes throws while he is being hit or falling down, trusting in his athletic ability maybe a little too much. Like Favre, he is desperate to make a play, yet they do this for very different reasons.

Favre always wanted to make a play because he wanted to be a hero. It was his ego that drove him to try to attempt the impossible because the payoff for him was the glory of making a spectacular play. In Romo's case, it seems to be having to do with his own confidence problems, which leads him to try to make a play in order to prove himself to the media and the Cowboys' fans. Romo just needs to settle into his role as a starting quarterback and find some sort of confidence from all the talent he has.

His main issue as a quarterback is his leadership skills. His inferiority complex clearly effects his ability to lead others and that is why the Cowboys as a team seem to always fall short. Obviously a lot of that falls on the quarterback, but this is a team problem and not a Romo problem.

Had Dan Bailey made that field goal against the Giants, which was set up by Romo driving right down the field with 30 seconds left on the clock, Romo would have looked like a hero. Instead, everyone gets to nitpick possibly his only bad pass of the game when he overthrew a wide open Miles Austin on third down. Considering Austin has missed the majority of this season, is still not playing at 100%, and now claims that he lost the ball in the lights causing him to slow down, I'll give Romo a pass for a game in which he threw four touchdowns and had to overcome the loss of his star rookie running back.

The Cowboys defense has been awful this year and has put a ton of pressure on Romo. The Cowboys simply cannot win games when they give up so many big plays on broken coverage, which allowed the Giants to score two touchdowns in about three minutes.

If Romo just finds a way to be confident in his skills and to steps up into a leadership role on this team, the Cowboys could be scary good once they sort out their defensive backfield.

Josh Feldman: Oh my, where to begin...

First, let's start with what I believe is the question at hand -- is Romo a top 10 quarterback/franchise quarterback? -- before refuting and clarifying some of the beliefs, misinformation and fallacies about Tony Romo.

Is Tony Romo a top 10 quarterback? The easiest way to answer this is by simply going through the Cowboys schedule one week at a time and, with each match up, determining which quarterback you'd like on your team. It's an easy proposition for teams with Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees (Super Bowl winning quarterbacks), but harder with a controversial QB like Tony Romo, whose dynamic comebacks and clutch performances are only surpassed by the glorification of his failures.

The quarterbacks on the Cowboys' schedule include Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith, John Beck, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Sam Bradford, Michael Vick, Tavaris Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Moore, John Skelton (Kevin Kolb was injured), Eli Manning, and Josh Freeman. Only Tom Brady and Eli Manning are legitimate quarterbacks to argue having over Romo. In fact, other than teams with the obvious franchise quarterback, someone who already has hardware in the trophy case, tell me another quarterback you'd want instead of Dallas' #9?

Those fringe franchise quarterbacks include Philips Rivers (who appears to be on a mission to get Norv Turner fired based on his play), Jay Cutler (who was nearly run out of Chicago after last year's NFC Championship game), and Michael Vick (who is about as healthy as one of his dogs). Tony Romo has shown more consistency over the last five seasons than all of those quarterbacks. By a long shot.

There are other quarterbacks like Tim Tebow, Joe Flacco, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez... Their teams win, but arguably in spite of their quarterbacks, not because of them.

How importantly is a quarterback? Just ask the winless Colts.

Is Tony Romo a franchise quarterback? Absolutely. If he played for a franchise like the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions or Arizona Cardinals -- teams that really haven't had a franchise quarterback in the last 50 years or ever -- Romo would be the greatest QB any of those teams could ever hope for. But Romo is cursed with the same thing Troy Aikman had to deal with: following a legend in Dallas. Never mind that Aikman didn't come to Dallas until '89 and Roger Staubach retired almost a decade earlier. There was a six-year gap between Aikman and Romo too, but in Dallas, it's all about the Super Bowl winning QB, and until you bring home the thing, you'll forever play in the shadows of those who did, fairly or not. That is what Tony Romo is up against.

Is he a franchise quarterback? Yes. Has he lived up to the ridiculously high Dallas Cowboys fans' definition of a franchise quarterback? No, and no one will until the Lombardi Trophy returns to Dallas.

Stally: Ok, so, as a Dallas insider, if you will, you agree that he is worthy of being a franchise quarterback. But, he still loses a lot of clutch games, so what happens to him late in games?

Josh: If anything, Romo gets better as the game goes on. There have certainly been exceptions this season, but take a look at those "exceptions" more closely, and you'll find that over his career and even in 2011, Romo has been plenty good in the fourth quarter.

If you had to name the top-five fourth quarter quarterbacks in the NFL so far this season, would you put Tony Romo in that group?

If not, you'd be wrong. Tony Romo has posted a 103.9 rating in the fourth quarter this season, and based on the stats compiled by the Washington Post, only trailing Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tim Tebow and the (always throwing because they're behind before he was hurt) Jason Campbell. See for yourself...

Frankly, this notion that Romo has a confidence issue -- a notion that y'all continue to perpetuate without basis -- sounds more like something out of a Cialis commercial than an NFL locker room. Where does this even come from? Austen, you made the point you feel like Romo "has lost more games" than he has won. Stally, you claim Romo is the anti-Tebow, turning back into a pumpkin during the final five minutes of the game. Both assertions need to be addressed.

Romo In The Clutch: This issue has been so overblown, I feel we need to start much farther back than this year. (I promise, we won't go snap by snap, but you almost have to in order to make people see the light on this guy.) Why he's such a lightning rod, I guess that has to do with the star on his helmet and the position he plays, but look at where he came from and what he accomplished.

An undrafted rookie free agent, Romo only made the Cowboys roster in 2004, after starting QB Quincy Carter was released for a positive drug test, severing the franchise's ties with the man who the team invested a second-round draft pick in and who led them to the playoffs the previous year, before losing to eventual NFC-champion Carolina. Romo watched Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson and Drew Bledsoe lead the Cowboys pretty much nowhere, before taking the reigns six games into the 2006 season and leading Dallas to a wild card berth. If not for the botched hold by Romo, he would have led the Cowboys in an upset over the defending NFC champions on the road. Keep in mind, the only reason it had been such a chip shot field goal is because Romo had led Dallas down the field to put them in position to win. As I wrote in 2006:

This year, Romo proved that he has what it takes to be the quarterback in Dallas. Without him, the 'Boys may not have even made the playoffs. Making the Pro Bowl was no fluke; the final five games of the season were.

The Bobble will not be as catastrophic as "The Catch," which not only launched a dynasty but crumbled another at once. Instead, it will most likely be looked back at as Romo's humble beginnings after a career of success.

A gaffe like that could have buried the undrafted rookie free agent now at the helm of America's Team. How was he supposed to come back from that? Parcells left following the season, and Romo managed to "pick up the pieces" en route to a 13-3 season in 2007. The record alone is impressive for a season-year starter (technically, his first full season, but really, it was Year #2 for Romo).

The fingerprints for Romo's comeback abilities trace to this season on a Monday night in Buffalo. Dallas trailed the Bills by 24-22 after a failed 2-point conversion with :20 to play in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind, Romo had already led Dallas on what could have been a game-tying drive in the 2-minute drill that would have forced overtime had T.O. not dropped the 2-point try. The Cowboys recovered an onside kick, and Romo completed two quick passes to set up a 53-yard field goal by Nick Folk. In fact, the only loss Dallas suffered that season prior to December came at the hands of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. (By the way, Stally, beating the Giants in the playoffs that year -- and Dallas would fail to do -- was not as easy as it seemed, would you agree?)

Stally: I don't think the Patriots played the Giants in the playoffs last year. I seem to remember Roger Goodell just calling off the Super Bowl since the Pats were 18-0 and it seemed like a waste of time...but go ahead.

Romo had another great comeback in 2008 in Arizona, only no one remembers the game for anything other than the blocked punt that ended it. The Cowboys trailed the Cardinals by 10 points with two minutes left in the game before Romo led a pair of scoring drives to tie the game and force overtime. On the first play from scrimmage in overtime, Romo was hit awkwardly and broke his finger. Three plays later, the game was over. To any Romo detractors, I ask you this: how did Dallas fair without Romo that season? It wasn't pretty. There was a loss to the St. Louis Rams mixed in there -- and they were worse then than they are now!

There are other examples of Romo's clutch performances leading up to this season (leading a game-winning drive at Washington in 2008, Miles Austin's breakout game at Kansas City in 2009 [someone was throwing the ball], comebacks against Philadelphia and Washington in 2009, plus ruining the Saints perfect season that same year). In an injury-shortened 2010 season, Romo had Dallas on the brink of another comeback win if not for Alex Barron's holding penalty on the final play of the season opener in Washington. Obviously, there are games during the last five years where Romo has faltered, but the point is he does have a healthy pattern of success as well.

Romo This Season: In the season-opening loss to the Jets, Romo did throw a poor interception, but his other 4th quarter turnover -- a fumble while diving for the goal line is exactly the type of play that demonstrates why a Cowboys quarterback is playing against a stacked deck when it comes to the judgment he'll receive. If he'd slid feet first inside the five yard line, everyone would challenge his heart for not pushing toward the end zone. His criticism in this game was results-based. The interception was bad, absolutely, but the fumble would be like criticizing John Elway had he fumbled on his helicopter run during Super Bowl XXXII.

The very next week in San Francisco -- keep in mind this wrapped up a grueling four-week travel schedule that included games in Miami, Minnesota, New York and now San Francisco (in other words, all edges of the country) -- Romo overcame some terrible play-calling (the Miles Austin run) and led the Cowboys on a game-tying drive before connecting with Jesse Holley in overtime for a long pass play to set up the game-winning field goal.

He did throw three second half picks against Detroit. How Bobby Carpenter returned one for a touchdown, it must have been Romo's present to a member of his wedding party. In that game, however, the Cowboys had not yet stumbled upon what they had in DeMarco Murray. It's easy to look back and say "they should have run the ball" but until that point, Murray hadn't had his breakout game against the Rams, and Felix Jones was running timid.

In fact, Romo has led potential game-winning or game-tying drives in each of the Cowboys last four games, seeing his efforts come to fruition against Washington and Miami with successful Dan Bailey field goals and watching the Cowboys crumble after Jason Garrett's timeout against the Giants and Jason Pierre-Paul's block against the Giants. To say he hasn't gotten it done in the fourth quarter is to only look at the final score, not at how the Cowboys arrived there.

His leadership skills aren't a problem. This "confidence" question is unfounded.

Austen, your point about the Cowboys problems being team problems is spot on. Check the defense and special teams in some of the Cowboys losses. Dallas has lost six games, and the first two (New York Jets and Detroit) can be put squarely on Romo's shoulders. However the losses in New England, Arizona and at home to New York could have all resulted in wins with better fourth quarter play from the defense and special teams (the loss to Philadelphia was a blowout, so a lot would have had to work out differently).

Tony Romo offers the Cowboys a chance to win more often than "any given Sunday." Romo is the reason the Cowboys are a favorite most weekends. And unless you have a team with a quarterback who already has hoisted the Lombardi Trophy, you don't have a quarterback better than him.

Stally: Wow! I told Josh we were looking for a few paragraphs, and we got a whole lot more! Thanks so much for weighing in from Texas (or Southern California, I guess, technically, since you live there), and setting the record straight on what will make Dallas tick. I think we can all agree on this: Romo's a franchise quarterback and all three of us expect that he should raise a Lombardi Trophy at some point.

Monday Night Misery

2011-12-12T13:47:00.000-08:00

Stally's Goal Line Stand

One flop on MNF was more than enough
from the Rams this season! (Getty)

I've managed to get a Goal Line Stand out each week so far, but this weekend it seemed too close to everything else we were putting out to force another article on everyone. Plus, I have something that really needs to addressed and directly relates to Monday, so I figured I'd roll it out at the appropriate time.

As hypocritical as it might sound after my stand last week that Andy Reid's tenure with the Eagles was about over (I never called for his head, merely conjectured an outcome), I don't usually find it fair to call for someone's job. Heck, even today, I found a post on the Facebook wall of NH Motor Speedway saying that the organization should investigate the social media person (me). The guy was mad that the Deal Share people for people to sign up for required an email. (Um, hello? That's how we contact you about cheaper tickets!) I disregarded it, but it's always offensive having someone saying you should be fired.

That said, whomever oversees the Monday Night Football schedule at ESPN, should...be...fired!

The games that this person approved for MNF are routinely some of the worst games of the week. Even before a team like the Colts or the Chiefs turned out to be far more inferior than expected, we had a terrible slate:

In Week 1, we got the Dolphins in one game, the Broncos and Raiders in another.
Week 2, the Rams.
Week 3, the Redskins.
Week 4, the Bucs (against the Colts, to make matters worse).
Week 5, the Lions and Bears turned out to be a watchable game.
Week 6 was the Dolphins...again (they lost 24-6 to fall to 0-6, two of which came on MNF).
Week 7, we were saw the Jaguars.
Week 8, the Chiefs (luckily, it was an exciting overtime game).
Week 9 was a good Bears and Eagles game (Hey, what do you know? Good things happen when you schedule a good team like Chicago!).
Week 10, we suffered through the Vikings 45-7 loss to the Packers.
Week 11, the Chiefs lost 34-3 to the Patriots.
Week 12 was the best Monday matchup of the season: the Giants at the Saints. Unforuntately, New York got blown out.
Week 13, we saw the Jags for the second time!
Week 14? We get the Rams for a second time...and they're in Seattle no less!
We'll close it out with decent games: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (Week 15) and Atlanta at New Orleans (Week 16).
Thankfully, there's no Week 17 game. I can only assume that since we only got treated to one Seahawks game that it would have been Seattle at Arizona, if the scheduler had his/her preference.

This is terrible. We'll have to see Jacksonville, Miami and St. Louis twice. All in all, if my predictions are correct, we would have seen a total of 15 playoff appearances in 17 games (that would include counting the likes of New England, etc. twice for multiple appearances). That means that more than half of the appearances in a special, standalone night of primetime football will be made by teams that won't make the playoffs, and in many instances. In many cases, they were teams that weren't ever considered to be in playoff contention.

Go ahead. Find me even the most jaded Jaguars fan and have him tell me how his team was going to go 11-5 this year! I doubt that would have happened.

The slate has been so bad that I almost always flip over to Hawaii Five-O on CBS promptly at 10 to get away from the misery that is Monday Night Football. Hawaii Five-O isn't even that good this season, is readily available on Comcast's On-Demand and I've never been known as someone to turn off live sports for some TV show...until now.

Nobody wants to watch these games! Tonight, it'll be an easy choice as I have zero intention of watching the 2-10 Rams at the 5-7 Seahawks for longer than I must. It's become a travesty that Monday Night Football has been diminished to this and it's time for a change in the scheduler to ensure that us committed football fans never have to suffer through Monday nights like this again.

Please ESPN, is it Tuesday yet? Make it stop!

Week 14: Varying Opinions

2011-12-11T10:25:00.000-08:00

Ravens look to sack the Colts to leave them at lucky 0-13.

There's a lot disagreement with this week, with the OXen arguing over five different outcomes. Let's get right to it!

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @Baltimore over Indianapolis

Stally: We've both lost our top picks at some point this season. Something neither of us have lost: picking against Indy. It seems like the logical choice again this week.

Austen: Ditto. There is nothing to say here. The Ravens could win this game if they started Ray Rice at quarterback.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Pittsburgh over Cleveland

Austen: Well this game already happened and the Steelers almost fell to the Browns due to an injury to Ben Roethlisberger. Lucky for me, the Browns offense is terrible and the Steelers defense held strong. That's why I took this first overall because there was almost no scenario in which the Browns could have won this game.

Stally: I always fear those AFC North rivalry games, but agree that the Steelers were a heavy favorite and that this was a good choice.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - New England over @Washington

Stally: I always feel like picking the Patriots to early can jinx them, but this Washington team hasn't spent a lot of time winning this season. Somehow I just can't see a Rex Grossman led offense keeping up with that of Tom Brady.

Austen: Grossman could make this game a shootout, I know that sounds crazy, but considering how bad the Patriots defense is, it's possible. However, Grossman will make way more mistakes than Brady will in this contest and that will be the reason the Patriots win...again.

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - @Green Bay over Oakland

Austen: The Raiders have looked terrible as of late and I will keep betting on the Packers going undefeated this season. Carson Palmer has the potential to put up a lot of points in this game, but the one thing he struggles with is throwing interceptions, and the Packers have the most INTs in the NFL so far this season. Packers pull out another one.

Stally: Yep! Perhaps if this was in Oakland, the black-and-silver could dream of an upset, but if they can't put together a game in Miami, they're not going to do it in Green Bay.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - San Francisco over @Arizona

Stally: San Fran has basically run over their weak division this season. I don't see that changing anytime soon with the disparity in quality between the 49ers and the rest of the NFC West.

Austen: I think this could be a trap game for the Niners in Arizona. The Cardinals play much better at home and linebacker Patrick Willis and starting cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown are all questionable. With the division clinched, there is not much of a reason to rush their starting defensive players back to the field, all three of these guys should be held out of the game. That's a lot of playmakers missing on this defense, which has been the main reason for their success this season. I see an upset.

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - @New York-J over Kansas City

Austen: I said the same thing last week, if the Jets cannot win this game at home, I will be betting against them the rest of the season. All you need to know is that Tyler Palko is still the starting quarterback in KC and that should be reason enough the Jets win this game.

Stally: You said it. The Jets strength is their defense and Kansas City doesn't have an offense that can put up points against anyone right now!

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - Atlanta over @Carolina

Stally: Plain and simple. If the Falcons are worthy of going to the playoffs, like I think they are, they'll win this game. I just don't think Carolina's defense is good enough to give Cam Newton's offense a chance to steal this one.

Austen: Again, I see an upset. The Falcons are terrible on the road and Matt Ryan has struggled against the Panthers before. I think the Panthers come out hot and Matt Ryan will not be able to come back from a rough start.

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - @San Diego over Buffalo

Austen: The Chargers play their best football in the month of December. I don't know why, but they do. The Bills make it easy for the Chargers to follow that trend. The Bills are simply really bad.

Stally: Wow! Remember when we were talking about the Bills as a playoff contender? Then, Fred Jackson got hurt and they've returned to Earth as they don't have enough talent to be a good team. The Chargers have struggled, but they definitely have the talent.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - New Orleans over @Tennessee

Stally: I don't like this choice one bit, because I've been touting the Titans horn for halfway decency all season. The Saints also don't seem to be anything special on the road, but they're a very good team. This seemed like a better choice than any of the games that were left, although four points is more than I would have liked to risk to take it.

Austen: The Saints have to win this game to attempt to steal the first round bye from the 49ers and I think they will do just that. Brees has been unstoppable lately and I think that trend will continue. It could be close, but the Saints should win this one.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - @Seattle over St. Louis

Austen: I feel strange taking the Seahawks this high, but they are playing the Rams. The Rams have been awful on offense and their rush defense is the worst in the league. I think Marshawn Lynch will carry the Seahawks to a win in this game.

Stally: It's also a home game for Seattle, who plays notoriously well there. They beat the Rams last year in this situation to take the division and St. Louis is playing far worse than at that time.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - @Detroit over Minnesota

Stally: The Lions have looked very mortal recently, but Minnesota can't seem to figure out how to win games! Detroit at home makes sense.

Austen: This is definitely a game the Lions have to win. With Adrian Peterson out again, I do not think the Vikes have a shot in this one. Their defense will have to have their best game of the year to even keep this close. They cannot cover anyone, how are they going to cover Calvin Johnson?

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - @Denver over Chicago

Austen: I took the Broncos here because I want my own personal jinx to put an end to this Tebow-mania. The Broncos should win this game with the way the Bears are playing, but this is exactly the type of game the Bears seem to win.

Stally: Agreed, and that's exactly why I'm taking the Bears. I think they have the defense to slow down Denver and that it's time the Broncos luck runs out. Funny that I jump off the bandwagon at the same time you climb on, but I feel like I had this Denver team pegged long before you did.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - @Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

Stally: When Jon Gruden (I think, maybe it was Jaws) says on the broadcast that there are rookies on the Jags that just shouldn't be on the field, I take note. The firing of Del Rio won't do any short term favors and Blaine Gabbert's prominence in Jacksonville might end up being a lot shorter than his hair. I'll take a bad Bucs team at home over a terrible Jags team on the road.

Austen: I thought the Bucs would be fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the season, but instead they are fighting to get out of the top-10 in the NFL draft. They have been really bad, but Josh Freeman seems to be healthy again so hopefully LeGarrette Blount gets back on track and the Bucs win this one.

Stally: I did not think the Bucs would be fighting for a playoff spot and can't help but notice they're right on track for the 6-10 finish I predicted for them

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - New York-G over @Dallas

Austen: I did not like taking any of these last three games, so I decided to have some faith in my second favorite New York team to take down the rival Cowboys in Dallas. I think they will win this game because the Cowboys have been barely scraping by against really terrible teams.

Stally: You knew I'd take the Cowboys! I'm not overly impressed by the way they've been playing, but I do think they'll pull this one out at home. They're still a good team, even if they play inconsistently.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - Houston over @Cincinnati

Stally: Too late now to change my pick, now that Andre Johnson has been ruled out for Houston, so let me try to talk myself into this one. The Texans proved against Atlanta last week that they are a still capable of beating decent teams, Cincy very much falls under the "decent" umbrella.

Austen: I think the Texans' defense continues to carry this team and makes life tough for rookie Andy Dalton. I see the Texans winning another close defensive battle. Who would have thought I'd be saying that a year ago?

Austen (One-Point Pick) - @Miami over Philadelphia

Austen: The Eagles have been awful and the Dolphins have been playing for their coach's job. I think the Dolphins will be more motivated than the Eagles, despite them getting Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin back, and they pull off a win (I almost called it an upset but they have the same record).

Stally: Philly has far more talent than an inspired Dolphins team. If the Eagles show up to play, they'll win (but who knows if that will happen). The Eagles have also had 10 days to regroup from an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks.

Pick 'Em

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Stally: Pittsburgh

Austen: Pittsburgh

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Stally: Baltimore

Austen: Baltimore

Atlanta @ Carolina

Stally: Atlanta

Austen: Carolina

Houston @ Cincinnati

Stally: Houston

Austen: Houston

Minnesota @ Detroit

Stally: Detroit

Austen: Detroit

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville

Stally: Tampa Bay

Austen: Tampa Bay

Philadelphia @ Miami

Stally: Philadelphia

Austen: Miami

Kansas City @ New York-J

Stally: New York-J

Austen: New York-J

New Orleans @ Tennessee

Stally: New Orleans

Austen: New Orleans

New England @ Washington

Stally: New England

Austen: New England

San Francisco @ Arizona

Stally: San Francisco

Austen: Arizona

Chicago @ Denver

Stally: Chicago

Austen: Denver

Oakland @ Green Bay

Stally: Green Bay

Austen: Green Bay

Buffalo @ San Diego

Stally: San Diego

Austen: San Diego

New York-G @ Dallas

Stally: Dallas

Austen: New York-G

St. Louis @ Seattle

Stally: Seattle

Austen: Seattle

Lots of disagreement this week means I might have a shot at making up some ground!

Week 14 Coin Toss

2011-12-10T08:44:00.000-08:00

I wonder if Ditka could even coach this
decimated Bears team into the playoffs...

Stally: Let's talk about daaaaa Bears! Each week, we seem to address the impact of injury. Thankfully for those of you down in Houston, for once, we're not discussing one of your players. (Although, for the record, I'm very worried about another possible Andre Johnson injury and how it will affect my fantasy team.)

The Bears lost Matt Forte with a sprained MCL, which is expected to keep him out 2-4 weeks. My honest opinion? I always find recovery from injuries like this take a little longer than expected. What do you think, Austen? As a cornerstone of Chicago's franchise, there's no way he gets rushed back, is there?

Or, is there? The Bears are precariously perched at 7-5, tied with the Falcons and Lions and just a game in front of the Giants for the two Wild Card spots in the NFC. The offense looked awful in a 10-3 home loss to Kansas City, in which it mustered just 181 yards. With Jay Cutler already out, what's the impact of Forte's injury on the Bears' season? Can they still make the playoffs with Caleb Hanie at QB and Marion Barber at RB, or is it time to fold up the flag on their season?

Also, just out of curiosity while we're on topic: Ditka or God?

Austen: Trick question, Ditka is God.

Moving on from Chris Farley, I really think the Bears are screwed. I would be shocked if Matt Forte was back for the regular season because he is in a contract year and I am sure he will not want to aggravate his injury going into the offseason and allowing teams to low ball him because of it. Because of this, let's take a look at the Bears' remaining schedule and see what they have in store.

@Broncos: I will be the first one to say that Tim Tebow played the best game of his career last week. The defense again made stops when they needed to in order to keep them in the game, especially a late interception that set up the game-winning field goal, but they also allowed Percey Harvin to have a career day on them (eight catches for 156 yards and two TDs, as well as 19 rushing yards) and allowed Toby Gerhart to have a very good day as well. Tebow actually threw the ball extremely well, and he was the reason they were able to keep up with the Vikings surprisingly high-powered offense. The Bears defense is good, but if the offense cannot manage to score double-digit points against the Chiefs, I cannot imagine them doing it against a tough Broncos' D. Let's chalk this up to a loss for the Bears.

Seahawks: The Seahawks are getting better every week and their defense has also been playing very well. Marshawn Lynch has been unstoppable. The Bears play better at home, but if Caleb Hanie does not start making significant strides, they will not have a chance in this game unless Hester has two returns for touchdowns. I'll give the Bears the benefit of the doubt and say they win this one at home.

@Packers: Obviously, no one is playing as well as the Packers are right now. Even if Matt Flynn starts most of this game as the Packers will have home-field advantage locked up by then, I think Fylnn will steal this one from the Bears. Remember Flynn almost beat the Patriots last season when Rodgers missed a game because of a concussion.

@Vikings: This is also a team that is making huge strides, mostly on offense. Their defense is still awful since the defensive backs cannot cover anyone, but their offense might give them enough to beat the Bears in a low-scoring game. Again, I will give the benefit of the doubt that the Bears will be able to pull of this win, especially if they have Cutler back by this game, which could be a real possibility.

All in all, the best I think the Bears will be able to finish is 9-7, which I do not think will be enough to get them into the playoffs. There is also a real possibility that they do not get Cutler or Forte back at all this season and that could lead them to losing all four of their last games. I will be rooting for the Bears for the rest of the season, but I would not hold out much hope for their playoff chances.

Stally: I agree on your projections, but not the synopsis. I think that, aside from the Packers, there are three "win-able" games on the table, but "win-able," doesn't mean they'll actually pull them off. I like the Bears against the Broncos and the Vikings, but those are on the road, which balances it out in my mind. I'll say what you did, win over Seattle and Minni, losses against Denver and Green Bay that leaves them at 9-7.

I still think 9-7 might do the trick via tiebreaker, where they're currently 6-3 in conference. I projected out that the Lions go 1-3 and finish at 8-8, so they're out. The Falcons go 3-1 and finish 10-6, so they're in. The Giants go 3-1 and finish 9-7, the Cowboys go 2-2 and finish at 9-7. The Giants 3-6 conference record is a big detriment to them; they're also 1-2 in the division. In this case, the NFC looks like this: Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago.

The Bears are still on the inside track right now, thanks to having the best conference record of any team they're currently fighting with for a spot.

Austen: With the Dolphins winning four out of their last five games, only losing in the last second to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, what do you think of them and Matt Moore? This is the team that I expected to see when I predicted they would go 7-9. Their defense is finally getting it together and Matt Moore has been fantastic.

Does this team have a bright future ahead of them? Should the Dolphins give Moore a chance to be their starter in 2012 or should they draft one of the highly touted quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft? What has made the difference for this team in the second half of the year and can they keep it going?

Buy or sell this Dolphins team?

Stally: We must vary in our definitions of the word "fantastic." Matt Moore has a completion percentage of 61.9 (11th in the NFL), a QB rating of 87.6 (10th) and 197 yards/game (28th). Has he been good? Yes. Has he been better than we expected? Definitely. Has he been fantastic? Absolutely not.

He's a serviceable quarterback, but by no means is he elite, nor will he become elite. Go ahead and make a list of ranking the best quarterbacks. You're not even going to start considering Matt Moore until you get about halfway through the league. He gives the Dolphins flexibility in the draft as they don't have to use a first-round pick to take a quarterback.

That said, if the price is right and it makes sense, Moore's not so "fantastic" (as you would say) that Miami shouldn't have the possibility of drafting a quarterback in the first round. Imagine it like a quarterback trying to throw a ball. There's no need for Miami to force a play and make a bad decision, but if the opportunity is there, they should still take it.

As far as whether to buy or sell this year's team, I'd recommend neither and will be maintaining the small stock I currently have invested in them. At the beginning of the year, their over/under win total was seven. I thought for sure they'd win less and was laughing at the thought it was so ridiculously high when they started 0-7.

My laughter's stopped now and it's just a striking reminder that often times Las Vegas seems to know something the rest of us don't. If they beat the struggling Eagles at home and can upset either the Patriots or Jets later in the year, they'll be looking at a 7-9 record.

Then again, with a December game at Buffalo and the other three games remaining against talented teams (even if Phillly doesn't play like it), they could also struggle to a 4-12 finish. They have played very well lately, but they haven't been playing any team that's considered very good. So, my take: they're playing at about a 6-10 kind of quality and that's probably about where they'll finish.

Just a question for you to address in your answer. Nate Neroni and I got in a debate last night. He doesn't know much about Daniel Thomas and doesn't want to. I'm convinced Thomas is the future in the backfield for Miami and that his Round 12 value in our keeper league is definitely a great value. Neroni says his strategy is to never keep a player that will be perform worse than round 5 player and that Thomas won't be have that value in 2012. What are your thoughts on that? By the end of 2012, will D.T. be someone that fantasy owners look back at and think should have been drafted in the first five rounds?

Austen: I think you have to say that for the situation Moore was put into, he has been fantastic. He will never be Tom Brady, but the likelihood of them drafting a top-10 quarterback in the 2012 draft is very unlikely, unless they trade away their entire draft to get Andrew Luck. However, Moore has probably played better than any quarterback wearing a Dolphins jersey since Dan Marino.

Since his first start in which he got blown out by the Jets, the Dolphins are 4-3 and they have not lost by more than three points, all of which were caused by blown leads by the defense. He has also made a very mediocre offense look explosive at times, putting up over 30 points in three different games. That's incredible for a team that has really struggled scoring touchdowns over the last 2-3 seasons.

Brandon Marshall looks way more focused with Moore at the helm and is averaging more yards per catch this season than he has since his rookie year, in which he only caught 20 passes. He is still struggling with drops, but that is not Moore's fault and Moore has clearly been beneficial to Marshall's production.

Reggie Bush was atrocious during the beginning of the year with Chad Henne at quarterback, but he is now having probably the best season of his career. Maybe he is helping out Moore more than we think, but Moore seems to be the motivating catalyst to this entire offense.

The Dolphins' defense was downright awful for the first half of the season, but they too have made a huge turn around. They have a lot of talent on all three levels of the defense and it seems like they are finally putting it together. Whether that is due to coaching or Moore giving this team a reason to fight for a win, I cannot tell you, but it seems too coincidental that this entire team made huge strides once Moore settled into his starting role, especially since he did the same exact thing with a struggling Panthers team two years ago.

I think Henne is gone after this season and most likely Moore will be the Fins' starting quarterback in 2012 because they will play their way out of the top-10 in the draft and will not be able to nab one of the top tier quarterbacks. The 2012 year will be a make or break season for Moore's career to see whether or not he is starting caliber or just a very solid backup quarterback. I like his odds though, due to his leadership and decision making skills.

On to Daniel Thomas, I don't like him. He has shown some flashes at times, but so have a lot of running backs. I mean Steve Slaton put together a 1600-yard season before being revealed as a subpar running back. He needs to show some sort of consistency before fantasy owners can trust him at all.

Considering the Dolphins' coaching staff have given all the goal line touches to can't-break-a-tackle Reggie Bush instead of the 230-pound Thomas, it does not look like he is getting much support even from within his own team. That's not a guy I would be going after in any round unless he shows something more in the rest of 2011.

Sorry to burst your Thomas bubble, since I know you are trying to trade him. But, unless you have an absolutely awful fantasy team, I cannot imagine anyone wasting a keeper spot for Thomas, especially since you might be able to draft him in the last round of next year's draft.

Week 13 Final Score

2011-12-09T14:08:00.000-08:00

Arizona's upset helped Stally pile on the points. (AP)

For the second time this season, Arizona went to overtime tied 13-13 at home. And, for the second time, they delighted fans with a long touchdown score.

The game put Austen on the wrong side of the big upset over Dallas and capped off a week in which he saw his seven, five, four, three and two picks all go in the wrong direction. All in all, it led to a lopsided win for Stally, as he set a SOB record high for points, and opened up a large lead with just four weeks left in the regular season.

At this point, it looks like the race to keep an eye on will be the Pick 'Em race. Stally closed in two games and Austen now holds a four game lead.

Week 13

Draft Picks

Stally 54

7 Draft Wins - San Francisco (8), Baltimore (7), New Orleans (6), Pittsburgh (5), Green Bay (4), Tennessee (2), Denver (1)

5 Upset Wins - Arizona (7), Kansas City (5), Seattle (4), Houston (3), Carolina (2)

Austen 18

3 Draft Wins - New England (8), New York-J (6), San Diego (1)

1 Upset Win - Miami (3)

Pick 'Em

Stally 11-5

Austen 9-7

Season Teams

Stally 8 (16 points)

Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tennessee

Austen 8 (16 points)

Arizona, Carolina, Green Bay, Miami, New Orleans, New York-J, San Diego, Seattle

Week 13 Final Score

Stally 81 (SOB Season High)

Austen 43

Season Totals

Draft Picks

Stally 481

Austen 355

Pick 'Em

Austen 125-67

Stally 121-71

Season Teams

Stally 104 (208 points)

Austen 88 (176 points)

Current Score

Stally 810

Austen 656

Week 13: Rivalry Re-rout-ed

2011-12-04T22:20:00.000-08:00

Orlovsky is no Peyton Manning. (Getty)

The Patriots versus the Colts.

Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning.

It's one of the biggest rivalries of the past decade in the NFL. One that's ironically played out every single season with the exception of 2002 and often flares up in the playoffs.

Except this season. This year, it's Tom Brady versus Dan Orlovsky. Brady's the best quarterback of all-time, Orlovsky is appearing in just his 16th game in a seven-year career and has never won a start.

This rivalry definitely won't be the same this year. It projects to be one of the most uneven matchups of the season and should be a rout. It's where we start this week's picks.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @New England over Indianapolis

Austen: Considering I wrote my Goal Line Stand this week on how the Colts will be the first team ever to go 0-16, I am not going to waste your time talking about this matchup. A 21-point spread is all that needs to be said.

Stally: Let's repeat that: a 21-point spread! That's basically unheard of in the NFL. This was once a high profile rivalry and was originally the Sunday night game this week. Now, it's been flexed out and is probably the most lopsided game (on paper) we'll see all season.

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @San Francisco over St. Louis

Stally: I'm hesitant on this one, just because I feel like the 49ers have played over their heads. The Rams are awful, but did upset the Saints (given it was at home) and have nothing to lose. This was clearly a top choice this week, but I'm putting San Fran on upset alert if they don't show up.

Austen: Unless Frank Gore goes down with an injury, I do not see this game being close. The Rams defense has been terrible and Sam Bradford is adding nothing to this offense right now. I see another blowout.

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - Dallas over @Arizona

Austen: The Cards usually play well at home and the Cowboys tend to struggle on the road, but I just really think the Cowboys will dominate this game. With Kevin Kolb looking to make his first start in awhile, I see this team falling short the way they did basically every game Kolb was at the helm.

Stally: I've said for much of the season that I think the Cowboys are winning the NFC East. I think they're a dangerous team to someone like the Packers in the playoffs. I don't care where this game is being played: Dallas is one of the better teams in the NFL, the Cardinals are one of the worst.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - Baltimore over @Cleveland

Stally: Another pick I'm not that excited about. Baltimore is clearly the better team, but they've had a knack for losing to bad teams on the road. The fact the Browns are a division rival that's familiar with them doesn't boost my confidence.

Austen: This is yet another case of one team that definitely should win, but who the heck knows in the NFL, especially this season. The Browns are finally getting healthy on offense, so maybe they surprise the Ravens who tend to be over confident in games like this.

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - New York-J over @Washington

Austen: If the Jets cannot beat the Redskins, I am picking against them for the rest of the year. The Redskins are playing better as of late, but that still is not saying much. The Jets have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Stally: I do think this will be a challenge for the Jets as the Redskins do seem to have turned a corner. Rex Grossman is playing ok and Roy Helu is emerging (a prediction I made before the season started). That said, the Jets should win or they're not the contender we think they are.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Detroit

Stally: This is a more evenly matched game on paper than any of the above, but I'm willing to put this one down as almost a lock. The Saints are undefeated in the Superdome and, last week, torched a Giants team I classify in a similar group to Detroit. The Lions only chance is if their high-octane air attack can exploit the league's 27th-ranked pass defense to outpace Drew Brees and Co.

Austen: Like I said earlier in this season, I saw the Lions as a team that would win 8-9 games and fall short of the playoffs because of injuries and poor offensive line play. Jahvid Best has been out most of the year and the team has struggled to find a replacement for him. With Ndamukong Suh out for the next two weeks, I think this team will really put up some poor performances without probably their best player on the field.

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - @Chicago over Kansas City

Austen: The Chiefs are so bad and the Bears usually play very well at home. Caleb Hanie has not looked great, but the Bears might be able to win this game by just reaching double-digit points. Matt Forte and Marion Barber should dominate this game.

Stally: Kansas City hasn't scored a touchdown in about a month! Tyler Palko vs. Caleb Hanie? Bears win easy.

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - @Pittsburgh over Cincinnati

Stally: Austen's probably going to give some explanation about how he thought Cincy would beat Pittsburgh in one of their meeting this year. Look! This game is in Pittsburgh and the Bengals were a late field goal at home against the Browns away from possibly being on a three-game losing streak. This is clearly a smart choice!

Austen: Taking the Steelers is clearly the smart choice here, but these two teams really hate each other and that usually leads to strange results. I think the Bengals will fall just short, the way they have against the Steelers and Ravens in their first matchups this season. However, in a low scoring game, one play could completely alter the outcome of this matchup.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - Philadelphia over @Seattle

Austen: Well I am very happy to lose this pick. I clearly took the Eagles too high because I thought they might play like they wanted to win this week. Why I thought that, I will never know. Either way, the Eagles' season is over and Stally must be kicking himself for taking this team with his second pick in the season draft.

Stally: Hey man, I'm not that one that took the Colts over the Texans, which was something I told you all along was a dumb choice...I wanted nothing to do with this game, as I could easily see Philly losing like they did. I'm glad you took it. I probably would have let it fall until a one-pointer if you didn't act on it.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - Green Bay over @New York-G

Stally: I still don't think the Packers are so dominant that they'll go undefeated. I also think that a tough Giants team at home could be a big challenge for them. However, of the games remaining, taking the team that's 11-0 makes a lot of sense.

Austen: This has all the elements of a trap game for the Packers, especially if running back Ahmad Bradshaw is back for the Giants. The Giants have been completely lost without Bradshaw on offense and have failed to generate any sort of a run game without him. With all that said, I cannot see the Giants' banged up defense containing Aaron Rodgers for very long and I doubt their offense will be able to keep up.

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - Atlanta over @Houston

Austen: I cannot see the Texans beating such a talented team as the Falcons with so many of their top players out or banged up. The Texans might have trouble generating very much offense with T.J. Yates leading this team. Since Matt Ryan has been on fire recently, I don't think the Texans have much of a shot.

Stally: The Texans are 8-3! They have a shot. Unlike the hapless Colts, whom you drafted over the Texans in the Season Draft, Houston has a complete team that's won more games without their starter (one in one try than the Colts zero in eleven tries). I agree Atlanta is the favorite, but I'm not going to completely write off an 8-3 team at home, no matter the injuries.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - Oakland over @Miami

Stally: Miami's better than their 3-8 record shows and I'm still not that hot on Oakland, despite the 7-4 record. One interesting fact is that the Dolphins are +6 in point differential while the Raiders are -14. All that said, if this Oakland team expects to be a legitimate playoff team, it wins a game like this one.

Austen: I have been a firm believer in this Raiders team all year long, but this game could spell trouble with Darren McFadden, Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore all set to miss this week's game. That is a lot of offensive fire power to make up for and they probably won't beat Miami by kicking six field goals again.

Stally: They could. I'd peg the Dolphins at about 14-17 points, so six field goals would win.

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - @Tampa Bay over Carolina

Austen: LeGarrette Blount has been on fire as of recently and the Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. I think he dominates this game and Cam Newton continues to turn the ball over and cost his team the win.

Stally: The Bucs also have a terrible defense. I think the Panthers have more offensive talent across the board, especially with Josh Freeman out at QB for Tampa. I'm taking Carolina in a close one that won't feature too much defensive skill.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - Tennessee over @Buffalo

Stally: Austen, I know you're as confused about my assertion that the Titans are decent team as I am about your talk about the Bucs. However, when Chris Johnson shows up, which has gone from never to at least bi-weekly at this point, Tennessee is a multi-threat offense with a defense that ranks seventh in points against. That's a lot better than a Buffalo team with no run game, hand-less wide receivers and a defense that's 28th in points against.

Austen: Matt Hasselbeck is banged up and it clearly showed last week against the Bucs. They needed CJ to run for almost 200 yards in order for them to squeak out a close win over my Bucs. They also turned the ball over four times last week and the one thing the Bills' defense does well is cause turnovers. That being said, I think the Titans pull off another close win thanks to an anemic Bills' offense.

Austen (One-Point Pick) - San Diego over @Jacksonville

Austen: As bad as the Chargers have been since their bye week (they have lost all six games since their bye), they have to beat a Jacksonville team that just fired their head coach. Right?

Stally: I guess. The Jack Del Rio firing in Jacksovnille is the only reason I'm taking San Diego in this one. I gotta hope that Hawaii Five-O has a new episode tomorrow so I don't have to watch the Jaguars for a second time on Monday Night Football.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - Denver over @Minnesota

Stally: When in doubt, pick Tim Tebow. As I said in my goal line stand last week, he's not good, but he wins games! Plus, at 2-9, Minnesota doesn't win games.

Austen: The only hope for Minnesota is Jared Allen to have a big day. He could definitely force Tebow into some uncharacteristic mistakes, but will it be enough to overcome the loss of Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin's "illness"?

Pick 'Em

Philadelphia @ Seattle - Thurs

Stally: Philadelphia

Austen: Philadelphia

Tennessee @ Buffalo - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Tennessee

Austen: Tennessee

Kansas City @ Chicago - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Chicago

Austen: Chicago

Oakland @ Miami - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Oakland

Austen: Oakland

Denver @ Minnesota - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Denver

Austen: Minnesota

Indianapolis @ New England - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: New England

Austen: New England

Peyton Manning: New England

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Pittsburgh

Austen: Pittsburgh

Carolina @ Tampa Bay - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Carolina

Austen: Tampa Bay

New York-J @ Washington - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: New York-J

Austen: New York-J

Atlanta @ Houston - Sun, 1 p.m.

Stally: Atlanta

Austen: Atlanta

Baltimore @ Cleveland - Sun, 4:05 p.m.

Stally: Baltimore

Austen: Baltimore

Green Bay @ New York-G - Sun, 4:15 p.m.

Stally: Green Bay

Austen: Green Bay

Dallas @ Arizona - Sun, 4:15 p.m.

Stally: Dallas

Austen: Dallas

St. Louis @ San Francisco - Sun, 4:15 p.m.

Stally: San Francisco

Austen: San Francisco

Detroit @ New Orleans - Sun, 8:20 p.m.

Stally: New Orleans

Austen: New Orleans

San Diego @ Jacksonville - Mon, 8:30 p.m.

Stally: San Diego

Austen: San Diego

Week 13 Coin Toss

2011-12-04T13:35:00.000-08:00

There's plenty of blame to go
around in San Diego. (Getty)

Stally: I don't follow the draft that closely, especially as we get deeper and deeper into the rounds. However, I do follow college football some, so I'd obviously heard of University of North Carolina quarterback T.J. Yates, who's now with the Houston Texans.

He played for a perennial bowl contender in the ACC (never finishing in the Top-25) and threw to targets like Hakeem Nicks, Greg Little and Brandon Tate. His stats in college were good, not great, and he was drafted in the fifth round this past spring (152nd, or 47 spots earlier than Tom Brady was once taken).

The Tennessee Titans are two games (three, when you factor in probable tiebreakers) behind the Texans. I think we can both agree that Houston should win the AFC South, but what's the prognosis on Yates?

With Matt Leinart at the helm (for less than two quarters), we debated the liklihood that the Texans might make it out of the first round. With Yates, we'll probably both side with them being an underdog in the Wild Card round. Are there any teams that could be susceptible to a team quarterbacked by Yates? If you were Gary Kubiak, what skills does the QB have that you would best use to win?

Austen: I follow the draft very closely and Yates just barely made it onto my radar. For a quarterback, he has the NFL size (6'3", 220 lbs), which means hopefully he should at least stay healthy for the Texans if nothing else. However, the biggest compliment I have heard about him is that he has "starter potential." To me that means scouts like the way he played in college, but really have no freaking clue whether or not that will translate to the NFL.

From watching what little tape I can find on Yates online, he seems to be a bit of an erratic passer and tends to struggle with his accuracy at times, despite completing over 60% of his passes in almost all four years as a starter at UNC. This definitely could be what breaks the Texans' season since they cannot afford to have a quarterback who throws picks on what should be easy completions.

Yates has improved dramatically each of his seasons at UNC and he probably has yet to play his best football. However, right now for the Texans, he is at best a game manager who may be able to make some big plays here and there, but will most likely also make some costly mistakes. He is one of those quarterbacks who is solid in all areas of his game, but not great in any particular area, which makes him easier to defend.

While Yates definitely benefited from playing in college with some great receivers, he will get to throw to Texans' receiver Andre Johnson, so it is not like he will be throwing to scrubs out there. The Texans also have very talented pass catching tight ends and they will have to get their them involved into the passing game more to give Yates some short and intermediate throws to keep the chains moving.

The main trait Yates possess that will benefit the Texans is that he is an intelligent kid and according to many sources has a strong understanding of the Texans' offense, which is one of the simpler offenses in the NFL to run. He has good pocket awareness and makes quick decisions, which could make teams pay for sending a lot of blitzes his way.

Overall, I think Yates will play decently, but he might not be the starter long if Jake Delhomme can learn the offense quickly and prove that he has just a shred of the talent he used to possess in Carolina. Donovan McNabb might also get strong consideration for the starting role, despite his recent struggles.

Yates is probably a year or two away from being a guy you can rely on to win you some big games, so I really do not think he will be the starter for long in Houston.

Stally: Here's the thing though: T.J. Yates or Curtis Painter? I'd say that since Yates has "starter potential" and Painter clearly doesn't, that the Texans have at least put some stock in building a back up quarterback. I would imagine that Yates projects to a high end back up that could come in and start some games. He'll probably never be anything special, but he could ultimately be someone the fans rely on to at least keep his team in the game.

I certainly don't like the prognosis for the team in the playoffs with him under center. However, as I said in the question, the Texans are in a great position to cruise to the playoffs and I think Yates can do that. My game plan if I'm Kubiak: maximize the running attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate and get Andre Johnson on the field to catch passes and boost this kids confidence.

Austen: I am shocked, like all NFL fans, at how poorly the Chargers have been this season. They were expected to be one of the best teams in the AFC, and even possibly compete for a Super Bowl. At 4-7, the Chargers have almost no shot at the playoffs and have often looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Chargers started off hot at 4-1, which was atypical for this team which usually gets off to a slow start. However, the only teams they beat were the Vikings, the Chiefs, the Dolphins and the Tebow-less Broncos. Those are some pretty terrible teams and a lot of those were close games.

What is it about this team that has made them completely fall apart this season? Is Norv Turner that terrible of a coach? Did general manager AJ Smith really drop the ball this offseason by not adding the appropriate talent to this team to allow it to succeed? Why has Phillip Rivers been so off this season and throwing picks like its his job? Is there anything they can do to right the ship before this team falls off the deep end or will they have to start rebuilding with a new head coach and general manager?

Please tell me what to think of this team!

Stally: Honestly!? I don't know what to think of this team.

Offensively, they seem to have the same talent that's made them a perennial playoff team in the last several seasons. Defensively, they brought in my buddy from the 49ers, Greg Manusky, and they're not bad in total (yardage) defense, but give up a ton of points! They're basically like the anti-Patriots in terms of yards given up and points yielded.

I've always thought of Phillip Rivers as a great talent but also quite arrogant. I think his overall arrogance makes him a tough guy to have at the helm of a struggling team because he's doesn't adapt his game well when it's not working. It was very underrated, but the loss of Darren Sproles (a year after losing LaDainian Tomlinson) affected this offense. Ryan Mathews hasn't developed as expected and Mike Tolbert is nothing great. Sproles was always that safety valve for Rivers. Without him, he's forcing throws (again, out of arrogance) and making poor decisions because he thinks he's good enough to get it done.

I see a big turnover in the front office. The defense doesn't have many standout players at all and it's gone from being one of the league's best to what I would classify as below average. Turner will most definitely be out after the season. It's one thing to go 14-2 and get fired for losing by a field goal to the Patriots in the playoffs and get fired like Marty Schottenheimer was in 2006, it's totally different to have a somewhat similar cast of characters, sneak by against a lousy schedule and then drop six in a row to a cast of characters that's not particularly better.

You look at starters like Rivers, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates and none really seems to be that into winning right now. Turner doesn't seem to be giving them the kick in the butt they need. The Chargers need a coach that is tougher on these talented players, someone like, oh, I don't know, Schottenheimer!, who I never thought should have been fired in the first place!

Austen: I agree with everything Stally says, and I particularly like the part about Rivers' arrogance getting the better of him. To add to that point, I just do not think Rivers is a great leader or really has the ability to get his team to rally around him because he simply seems like a jerk. It is hard to play for a quarterback who you just don't like because football is such a physical game and you really risk your physical health every time you go out on the field. Who wants to risk an injury to make a guy you don't like look better? Maybe I am reading too much into Rivers' character, but this certainly does not help a team that really lacks any sort of team chemistry.

While Rivers and the offense has certainly struggled, the Chargers defense has failed to do much of anything this season. This was a defense that allowed the fewest yards per game last season so this is a bit of a surprise. However, over the last few years, they have lost a lot of long time starters who had made this a strong defense for years. Their young players have not developed like they had hoped and that leaves the team with a very mediocre defense. The defense also seems to lack a leader, which again causes them to falter in critical moments.

Basically everything Stally and I have said shows why this team should be mediocre, but doesn't explain why the are awful. What makes this team awful is clearly something inside the locker room that as an outsider we will not really be able to put a finger on it. However, it definitely has something to do with a team that lacks leadership on offense, defense, and the coaching staff. The Chargers are officially rebuilding and do not be surprised if Vincent Jackson is not back next season.

The Flight of an Eagle

2011-12-02T14:21:00.000-08:00

Stally's Goal Line Stand

The Eagles are no longer responding to Reid.

There's a simple theory of gravity that states: what goes up must come down. In sports, there are very few that ever defy the laws of gravity.

Tom Brady, the best quarterback of all-time, led his team to an 18-0 season, but landed with a thunk in a Super Bowl loss to the mediocre Giants.

Wayne Gretzky is the best hockey player to ever play the game, and remembered as such, but he put up some forgettable years as a head coach and, while he avoided any sort of charges, he was loosely affiliated with a (post-career) sports betting ring.

Andy Reid has brought the Philadelphia Eagles to nine playoff appearances in 12 seasons as the Head Coach. His resume includes five trips to the NFC Championship games (unfortunately, he only won once and then lost to Brady's Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX). But, he's returning to the ground at an alarming rate.

His past success (and failure, for that matter) is of little consequence right now. He's currently coaching the Nightmare Team, which is probably one of the most talented 4-8 teams in the history of the NFL. (Who would have thought Nnamdi Asomugha would jump the Raiders sinking ship to fly with the Eagles and it'd be the black-and-silver in playoff position?)

I've always defended Reid as a person that has made the Eagles a better organization; he also serves as the Executive VP of Football Operations. I think Reid is a strong coach and a good mentor. Sure, he might have some trouble with clock management, but he's always found ways to win a lot of games.

Until this season.

Last night's ugly 31-14 drubbing by the less-than-average Seattle Seahawks was likely the final thread in Reid's tenure with the team. The team is clearly no longer playing for him. I saw them get run over by New England last week and this game appeared just as ugly. Austen said recently about Indianapolis that it's one thing to lose close, it's another to get blown out (like the Colts) and look like you just don't care. The Eagles, clearly, don't care to win a game right now.

Philadelphia fans can say whatever they want about Michael Vick being out or it being a cross-country travel for a Thursday game. I see that as an impulse buy at the checkout counter, and I'm not purchasing it! This team has put up pathetic performance after pathetic performance. They were a team I (and many others) predicted would go 13-3, they're on track to finish with double-digit losses.

It's time for Reid to go. Despite a lot of success, the Washington Capitals fired Bruce Boudreau on Monday because the team was no longer responding to him. I liked Boudreau a lot and just three days later (yesterday), he was hired by the Anaheim Ducks as their new Head Coach. I like Reid as well. He deserves to coach in the NFL and he'll surely be offered a job this offseason.

He's had a long flight as an Eagle, but what goes up must come down and Reid's flight is over. He'll be returning to the ground shortly. Surely, Reid will be found by some other team, but he no longer seems to have much baring for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Week 12 Final Score

2011-12-01T14:46:00.000-08:00

Stevie Johnson's drops gave the Jets a win.
Austen was happy; Stally won his pick. (Getty)

The Stubborn OXen are starting to pull the plow evenly this time of year. Neither one lost a weekly draft pick until getting down to Austen's three-point pick. His stubborness to accept the holiness of Tim Tebow seems to have him surrendering the Denver win to Stally on a weekly basis.

The two combined to go 23-9 in Pick 'Em, with Austen picking up the win in that category (a usual occurrence). Meanwhile, Stally won in both the weekly and seasonal draft categories (also a usual occurrence).

Week 12

Draft Picks

Stally 37
6 Draft Wins - Pittsburgh (8), Dallas (7), New York-J (6), Green Bay (5), Tennessee (4), Baltimore (3)
2 Upset Wins - Denver (3), Arizona (1)

Austen 35
6 Draft Wins - Atlanta (8), Houston (7), Cincinnati (6), New England (5), Carolina (4), New Orleans (2)
2 Upset Win - Washington (2), Oakland (1)

Pick 'Em

Austen 12-4
Stally 11-5

Season Teams

Stally 9 (18 points)
Atlanta, Baltimore, Dallas, Denver, Houston, New England, Pittsburgh, San Francisco,Washington

Austen 7 (14 points)
Arizona, Carolina, Cincinnati, Green Bay, New Orleans, New York-J, Oakland

Week 12 Final Score

Stally 66

Austen 61

Season Totals

Draft Picks

Stally 427
Austen 337

Pick 'Em

Austen 116-60
Stally 110-66

Season Teams

Stally 96 (192 points)
Austen 80 (160 points)

Current Score

Stally 729
Austen 613

The Colts are Going 0-16

2011-11-30T09:51:00.001-08:00

Austen's Goal Line Stand

The Colts really dropped the ball on finding a decent
backup quarterback for Peyton Manning for 2011.

I do not even know how to put in words how bad this Colts team is this season. The best way for me to describe them is that they are even worse than the Detroit Lions team that went 0-16 a few years ago. With the Patriots, Ravens, Titans, and Texans still left on their schedule, it looks like their only shot at winning a game might be a road game to Jacksonville in the last week of the season. However, this team has shown no pride all season long and I cannot imagine them putting up a good game the last week of the season on the road just so that they can win one game.

To give you a clue at how bad this team is, they are 30th in scoring offense and 32nd in scoring defense. This totals up to them being outscored by 177 points this season, for an average of losing by over 16 points a game. That goes to show how far away this team is away from winning a game.

Earlier this season, when the Dolphins did not have a win, at least they were losing close games and fighting hard. They then went on a three game winning streak before falling on Thanksgiving to the Cowboys on a last second field goal. The Chiefs were being massively outscored early in the season, but they went on a winning streak of their own after they beat the Colts, before losing Matt Cassel for the year (after already losing three other big time playmakers earlier in the season). The Rams are the only other team that is even in contention for being as bad as the Colts and they have even managed to win two games.

People make the argument that the Colts playing this poorly goes to show that Peyton Manning has to be the greatest quarterback ever, mentioning that the Patriots still won 11 games without Tom Brady. I disagree. This fact should not be a comparison between Manning and Brady, but between Curtis Painter and Matt Cassel.

Cassel went to the Pro Bowl last season by guiding an extremely untalented Chiefs team to a division title. Painter, on the other hand, has shown us he is a completely inept quarterback who is clearly dreaming of days in which he gets paid millions of dollars to sit behind Manning once again. You cannot state that Manning is better than Brady because Brady had a better backup. There is no logic to that argument.

Whether or not Manning is better than Brady, his team is clearly hopeless without him. That falls entirely on the coaching staff. This team clearly had given up before the season even started. Manning is an incredible leader and apparently there is not another leader in the Colts' locker room because they continuously put up uninspired performances.

The Colts play as if they do not care whether they win or lose because everyone expects them to lose without Manning. It is the coaches' jobs to snuff out that type of attitude and get their team prepared for their games each and every week. I would be shocked if numerous coaches in Indianapolis did not lose their jobs over this season, and they would be well deserved firings.

It is shocking to me, and to mostly everyone that watches football, that the Colts had not even thought about finding a decent backup quarterback for Manning, especially considering the media has been mocking the Colts for years now for consistently having the worst backup quarterback in the league. They have gotten away with it for a long time, but this season is a perfect portrayal of their negligence.

Considering how little we have heard from Manning since the start of the season, I really think his injury is much worse than anyone is reporting. Despite my strong dislike of Peyton, it would be a shame for the entire NFL if this was the end of his career. However, I still strongly believe that the Colts will draft Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck regardless and start planning on their future, so to avoid a season like this again. Whether or not Peyton stays with the Colts, so long as he is healthy, may come down to financial issues as well as Peyton's willingness to groom his ultimate successor.

This will be one of the most heated offseason topics and it certainly would be interesting to see Peyton in a different uniform in 2012.