2017 NFL Mock Draft

The word around the horn is that there has never been this much uncertainty surrounding a draft in a long, long time. It is mostly because the 49ers are a total wild card sitting at the second pick. If they stay at two, they have so many needs that they really could take anyone. However, they are more likely to trade out of the pick, but who will move up? Will it be for a quarterback? Top defensive player? Or one of the top running backs?


ROUND 1
1. Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M

There is a lot of quarterback talk around this pick, but I really see no scenario in which the Browns pass on Garrett. He is the best player in the draft and plays a premier position (pass rusher). You simply don't pass on these types of players.

2. TRADE ALERT: Carolina Panthers (from San Francisco 49ers): Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Cam Newton is coming off his worst season as a pro and shoulder surgery. They need to protect him from taking a beating, especially in the red zone. In a weak offensive line class, the best way to do that is get a big, dynamic power running back. Everyone is mocking Christian McCaffrey to them with the eighth pick, but this is the team that gave Mike Tolbert a $10 million deal, aka they like power runners. The 49ers want out of this pick bad and I think the Panthers don't give up all that much to get here.

Super Bowl

It's Super Bowl Sunday and the Stubborn OXen have a split decision when it comes to who will win the the game.  Perfect!  We love a good disagreement, and there should be little surprise who is taking the Patriots.

Let us explain why our predicted team will win the game.

Austen on why the Falcons will win:

When the Broncos came into the Super Bowl with a record setting offense, I predicted they would lose by double-digit points. This Falcons' offense is worlds better than that one. This is the most balanced and versatile offense the league has seen in years, if not decades. The reason this offense has gone a bit under the radar is there is not one guy dominating the stat sheets. Matt Ryan just won the MVP, but Julio Jones (the Falcons' biggest star) had a down year, at least by his standard. Jones dropped drastically in targets and catches because the Falcons have an array of offensive weapons that would make any franchise jealous.

Ryan set an NFL record for throwing a touchdown to thirteen different players. That is astonishing. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are only the second running back duo in the history of the NFL to both have double-digit touchdowns, while Freeman has led the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons. Meanwhile this offensive line is a top-five unit in the league to boot. There is no weakness to this offense, so it is going to be fun to see the chess match between NFL Assistant Coach of the Year Kyle Shanahan's offense against Bill Belichick's bend-but-don't-break defense.

Speaking of the defense, the Falcons have seven firs-t or second-year players starters on defense. Yes, this defense was in the bottom of the league in a lot of categories, but they have gotten better every week, culminating two weeks ago shutting out the Packers' high flying offense until the game was way out of hand. They won't have the comfort of playing in the Georgia Dome, but there is a lot to like about this fast and aggressive defense, despite its lack of experience. Vic Beasley is one of those young and inexperienced guys, and he led the league in sacks. Dan Quinn has done an incredible job turning around this team in two years and I think he is going to put his name in the history books with the Falcon's first-ever Super Bowl win.

Score Prediction: Atlanta 30, New England 24

Stally on why the Patriots will win:

I'm not buying into Austen's "under the radar" claim about the Falcons offense.  That offense got plenty of props for scoring the most points in the league.  The unit that didn't get any credit is the Patriots defense, which gave up the fewest amount of points in the league at 15.6 points/game (more than two less than the closest team).

Defense wins championship and that's where this game will be decided.  Despite not having Tom Brady for four games (and getting shutout in one of those), the Patriots still finished third in the league in points scored, so the Falcons don't have as significant of an offensive advantage as Austen has hinted.  But the Patriots do have a significant advantage on defense, as the Falcons ranked 27th in points against and gave up 9.8 points more per game than the Patriots defense.  Good luck trying to stop the most experienced Super Bowl quarterback in history.

Which brings me to my final point: experience is a huge advantage for New England.  This will be the seventh, yes, seventh, Super Bowl appearance for the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.  Austen, for some reason, tried to liken the Broncos to the Falcons in a game that Denver lost 43-8.  I'll keep that comparison going with Atlanta, as both teams were making Super Bowl appearances for the first time in a generation.

The Broncos came back two years later to win the Super Bowl.  Why?  Because they were inexperienced and then gained that experience by getting their butts kicked.  I'm not saying that the Falcons will get beat that badly, but they will be more jittery and inexperienced when the Patriots.  When New England is starting to flex its muscle on both sides of the ball, Atlanta will struggle and the Patriots will take advantage.

Score Prediction: New England 34, Atlanta 27

Championship of Champions

Will Matty Ice send the Georgia Dome off on a high note?

The 2016 NFL season started unpredictably.  The two of us missed handfuls of games that we thought were obvious wins for the eventual loser, and it took us quite sometime to get accustomed to the state of the NFL this year.

Parity seemed to reign supreme.  Following the Week 13 slate of games, three divisions were led by teams that were within two games of the .500 mark.  (Two at 7-5 and one at 6-6.)

The NFL appeared to be a mess of mediocre teams all vying for a spot in the playoffs.

And then those playoffs arrived, and the cream rose to the top like it always does.  The big dogs in the yard barked the loudest, and here we are at the final four: New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Atlanta.

The Falcons are the only outlier in the bunch.  New England with QB Tom Brady have won four Super Bowls, Pittsburgh with QB Ben Roethlisberger have won two, and Green Bay with QB Aaron Rodgers have won one.  All three of the those teams are perennial contenders with those QBs at the helm, and it will be up to Matt Ryan and his Falcons to knock off the NFL's equilibrium this season.

Here are our picks for the Conference Championships:

The Literal Divisional Round

Chiefs fans at Arrowhead Stadium could be a difference maker.

There are eight teams remaining in the NFL Playoffs, and fittingly it's all eight divisional champions that will be meeting in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  The Wild Cards are gone after all four home teams won last weekend, so there will be no Cinderella story this year ... unless the Texans win, they'll need a glass slipper to win the Super Bowl, probably two and a pumpkin to turn into their chariot.

Here's a look at who Austen and I are picking this weekend:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Houston

Austen: My head literally might explode if the Texans win this game. While they have one of the best defenses in the league, they also have an offense that got shut out the last time these two teams played. You don't win a lot (/any) games scoring zero points. When was the last time the worst quarterback in the league beat an MVP candidate in the playoffs? I don't know but I'd have to guess never. 

Score: New England 41, Houston 13

Stally: I hate to be an over confident Patriots fan, but I can't see a way the Texans win this game.  As The Pats destroyed the Texans with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, just wait until Tom Brady gets to lead this weekend.

Score: New England 31, Houston 13

The Wild Wild Card

Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning both have aspirations for
another Super Bowl ring, but only one can win this weekend.

It's playoff season, and that means that Austen is back for the stretch run.  Happy 2017, blog readers!

Let's get into our playoff breakdown:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Pittsburgh over Miami

Stally: This is the only game of the four that I find easy to pick.  The Pittsburgh Steelers are a good football team with a ridiculous amount of offensive talent, and Miami is headed on the road with a backup QB.  I just don't see the Dolphins winning this game.

Austen: No argument here. Matt Moore is more than serviceable (I would have Miami favored over both the Texans and Raiders), but they got a road game with the most dangerous offense in the league. Tough draw for a Fins team that has not made the playoffs in almost a decade and has only won one playoff game this millennium.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Seattle over Detroit

Week 17: Games Worth Watching

The Lions and Packers are neck-and-neck
in the race for the NFC North.

Stally: Week 17 is usually skipped in most fantasy football circles.  This year, more than most, it might be skipped by many of the NFL teams as well.  The AFC has its six teams with only some seeding scenarios on the line.  The NFC still has a division up for grabs (the NFC North) as well as a Wild Card spot that could, but might not, involve the NFC North loser.

Instead of ranking games by confidence like usual, I'll clump together the games worth watching, and the games not worth watching.  There's no need waste type on some of these irrelevant games, and the draft order really isn't something with which I'm going to concern myself at this time.

If Austen returns to the blog at some point, he's more into the draft than I am, so I'll leave that for him.

Must Watch Games

Green Bay @ Detroit (8:30 p.m. NBC)

This is the one game of the day in which there's an opportunity for either team to win and make an impact on their playoff situation.  The winner of this game wins the NFC North and goes to the playoffs.  These teams will know by kickoff if the loser can make it as a Wild Card or not (see the Redskins game below), which could further add to the intrigue.

The Lions have impressed this season.  The Packers have impressed as of late.  I'm going to give the edge to Detroit at home in this one, as I don't think this is the same old lame Lions team we've seen in the past.

My pick: Detroit (3 confidence points)

Week 16: Santa Claus is Coming to Town

Stally: Who's been naughty and who's been nice?  In the NFL, we're about to find out.  There are several clinching scenarios for the playoffs this weekend, and a lot more elimination scenarios.

Santa came early on Thursday for the Dallas Cowboys, who clinched the division and NFC's best record by virtue of a Philadelphia upset over the New York Giants.  Additionally, the Patriots (division and first-round bye), Seattle Seahawks (division) and Oakland Raiders (playoff berth) can all put an extra log on the fire and relax this holiday weekend, as they'll all be playing football past New Year's Day.

As per usual, Austen isn't going to have time to weigh in this week, so Elf Stally will take care of the write-up. Here's a look at the rest of the league and what I expect to unfold in Week 16 in order of confidence points:

16 - @New England over New York Jets

In Week 16 last year, the Patriots literally kicked away the conference's best record by electing to kick in overtime to the Jets, who promptly scored a game-winning touchdown.  That was last year's Jets, this is this year's Jets, whose poor coach was in the hospital on the night before game day.  That was also in New York, and this one is in New England.  The Jets will be delivering the gifts this year.

15 - @Green Bay over Minnesota

The Packers are back to playing good football, and the Vikings (?!) ... yuck!  Talk about being naughty, the Elf on the Shelf is not giving good reports on the Vikings right now.

Week 15: Two-Minute Drill

Despite a slow start, Aaron Rodgers and
the Packers are gaining confidence each week.

Stally: I've missed kickoff, so it's time to run a two-minute drill.  One sentence maximum per game.

Here are my picks in order of confidence points:

16 - @Atlanta over San Francisco

Stally: The Niners are playing some truly awful football, if you even want to call it that.

15 - @Seattle over Los Angeles

Stally: The Rams have looked terrible for several weeks, so I got this one right on Thursday.

14 - Green Bay over @Chicago

Stally: The Packers are a very confident group despite early season struggles.

13 - @Houston over Jacksonville

Stally: At 2-11, the Jaguars have become an easy team to pick against on a weekly basis.

Week 14: Bye-Bye, Byes

Before we begin, let me just take a minute to play this tribute video to one of the greatest bands to have ever walked this Earth ... and if you haven't listened to their Christmas album yet, then your heart is two sizes too small ...

Now let's get back to football, where we finally get to say "bye-bye" to bye weeks.  There are four weeks left in the NFL and every team is now through its bye, even Cleveland and Tennessee, whom I know we all missed seeing on the field last week.

Matthew Stafford and the Lions take the top pick this week,
which surely is a Stubborn OXen Blog first for Detroit.

There is one bye that continues, as Austen is on an indefinite bye from the blog.  I'll keep plugging along with my own picks, which probably are going to end up a game or two worse than your own (so take them with a grain of salt).  Without the safety net of Austen picking the favorite and letting me hide behind my underdog pick, I tend to get exposed every time I pick the 49ers to win for the first time since early September (which will happen again later in this blog).

Here are my picks in order of confidence points:

16 - @Detroit over Chicago

Stally: The Lions offense is good, we all knew that, but the defense?!  It just shut down Drew Brees in New Orleans, that's far more impressive than most of us thought it would be.  Detroit is shaping up to be a top contender in the NFC, and it's hard to imagine a lowly Bears team picking up this win on the road.

Week 13: Challenging the Bookies

Keep an eye on Jamies Winston and the Bucs as
they head to San Diego with playoff hopes alive.

Stally: Austen is out again this week, so it's just my picks for this one.  I'm taking seven underdogs according the book used on Yahoo! Fantasy, so we'll see how this turns out.  I have a feeling not well, but I'm sticking to my guns.

Here are my picks in order of confidence points:

15. @New England over Los Angeles

Stally: The Rams could frustrate Tom Brady and the Patriots (maybe, they gave up 49 points last week after having gone four straight without giving up more than 17), but their offense isn't going to score enough points to make it competitive on the road.

14. @Oakland over Buffalo

Stally: The Raiders prove each week that they're worthy of being talked about as a Super Bowl contender.  The Bills seem to be having a good season but at 6-5, they're far from elite.

13. Denver over @Jacksonville

Stally: The clock has struck midnight for Cinderella, as the Broncos aren't winning the games they managed to pull out last year.  But, they'll still roll over a hapless Jaguars team.

Week 12: Stuffed on Turkey

The Cowboys' star rookies might dress like ragamuffins,
but they look pretty good on the field!

Stally: Austen travelled to upstate New York this weekend to get loaded up on turkey, so we missed our traditional Thanksgiving Day post.  I've already had two turkey dinners myself, but am slowly waking up in enough time for some NFL football.

Here are my picks for the week in terms of confidence points, as Austen will spend the entire day driving along I-90 (or something like that) ... fun ...

16. New England over @New York Jets

Stally: This is the one game of the week that I really just can't find a way that the underdog wins.  I mean, even if Tom Brady, who is questionable, shockingly misses the game, I still go advantage Patriots.

15. New York Giants over @Cleveland

Stally: Every week I point out that the Browns are still winless, and every week they lose again by a sizable margin.  That won't change against a 7-3 Giants team exceeding expectations.

14. Seattle over @Tampa Bay

Stally: Seattle is hitting its stride, and that's bad news for anyone in its way.

Week 11: This is the World that We Live In

Tom Brady good. Colin Kaepernick bad. That is the boys'
detailed analysis of the Pats-49ers Week 11 matchup.

With the landscape of the NFL changing, the game projections become all the more complicated. The Chiefs and Raiders are two of the best teams in the AFC. The Lions are outclassing the Packers and Vikings. And the Titans are in prime position to win a terrible AFC South.

This is the world that we live in. Here we go.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
New England over @San Francisco

Stally: The Patriots struggled against the Seahawks, but are still one of the Super Bowl front runners. There's no way they lose to 1-8 San Francisco.

Austen: My head will explode if the 49ers beat the Patriots. The Pats might have to lose 2-3 quarterbacks to injuries for the 49ers to even have a shot. 

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
Pittsburgh over @Cleveland

Austen: The Steelers have been playing well below where they need to be playing if they are going to make the playoffs, but the Browns are no match to the Steelers, no matter how poorly they play. 

Stally: The Browns aren't going to win a game this season, so keep picking against them with full confidence.

Week 10: Week in Review

The SOB boys made some glaring errors in their predictions
this week, but that's why they say Any Given Sunday.

Well Stally got to the pick this week, so here is his pre-game analysis along side my post-game analysis. Here we go:

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Arizona over San Francisco

Stally: Definitely one of the easiest picks of the year.

Austen: Well it was an easy pick for me to make, but it was not so easy for the Cardinals to win. It took a last second field goal in order for the once dominant Cardinal to knock off possibly the worst team in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick has given life to the 49ers, but that is still no excuse for an Arizona team fighting for their playoff lives. 

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Baltimore over Cleveland

Stally: There's nothing easier than picking against the Browns on Thursday night to bank a 1-0 start to the week.

Austen: After looking about as good as a team can look without winning a game in the first half of the season, the Browns have headed towards full blown dumpster fire status. They will always be the least talented team on the field, but at least they were fighting earlier in the season. This is going to be the second ever 0-16 team in NFL history. 

Week 9: The Boys Are Back!

Dak Prescott has the Cowboys looking up.

The boys are back!

No, not the Cowboys, although they're back too.  But after a hiatus for Austen's move to a new apartment and Stally's trip football trip to Carolina (Gamecocks and Panthers), the Stubborn OXen boys are back for Week 9.

Oh yeah, and we have Round 2 of our fantasy head-to-head in our famous keeper league too, so that should be interesting.

Here are our picks:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Green Bay over Indianapolis

Stally: I'm not ready to tout the Packers as one of the league's best.  There are flaws, and there are no running backs in Green Bay.  However, the Colts are a mess right now, and the Pack is good enough to win this one easily at home.

Austen: The Colts' defense is non-existent and Aaron Rodgers is back to looking like, well, Aaron Rodgers. This should be a blowout.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Kansas City over Jacksonville

Week 7: Stally Goes Solo

After a no-call last week, the Seahawks are sitting pretty,
and the Falcons are looking to bounce back.

Stally: Austen is still in the moving-in process with Emily.  This means that not only has she ruined our fantasy football league with her ridiculously good team, but now she's going after the blog.  Although with the way Austen and I haven't been able to pick games, we might want to cede power to her on this one anyway.

Here are my picks for the week:

@Cincinnati over Cleveland (15 confidence points)

The Bengals aren't very good at 2-4, but they've had one of the toughest strengths of schedules and have at least managed a couple of wins.  The Browns have managed a single win and might not at any point.

Austen: Cincinnati (13)

@Atlanta over San Diego (14 confidence points)

The Falcons lost in Seattle on a tough call.  That win would have made them 5-1, and one of the best teams in the league.  This week, they should pick up that fifth win and reassert themselves as one of the league's best.

Austen: Atlanta (10)

Week 6: Stally's Thoughts

The Patriots are on to Cincinnati, and we all know how that goes.

Austen and I had time to make our picks, but with Austen and Emily getting ready to move and a lack of internet at the new apartment, it's all me this week on the thoughts.  -Stally

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Arizona over New York Jets

Stally: Ouch.  It's bad when Austen picks against his beloved Jets with the first pick, but there's just not a lot going right for that team right now.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Cincinnati

Stally: "We're on to Cincinnati," Bill Belichick.  #NuffSaid

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
Pittsburgh over @Miami

Stally: There's a huge disparity between these two teams, and I would be shocked if the Dolphins won.  Not to mention that home-field advantage doesn't often seem to help Miami.

Week 5: Brady's Back

This guys is back. Ugh.

Tom Brady is back.  Deflategate is officially over.  All is right in the world.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
New England over @Cleveland

Stally: There is very little chance that the worst of 32 teams in the NFL finds a way to beat Tom Brady in his return to the NFL.  He's been known to lay a whooping on this league when he has something to prove, which has seemed like pretty much every game since he was drafted 199th in the 2000 draft.

Austen: Brady will put on a show and play angry. Browns have no chance.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Minnesota over Houston

Austen: No team has played better the first quarter of the season than the Vikings. I will stick with them at home against any team, let alone a Texans team that has yet to find any consistency on offense or defense. 

Stally:  Despite having lost both their franchise QB and franchise RB, the Vikings are shaping up to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.  I can't disagree with this pick at all.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Green Bay over New York Giants

Stally:  The Giants have failed to impress, and the Packers are at home and coming off a bye week, so they should be rested and ready to dominate.

Austen: The Packers do not lose coming off a bye, and they rarely lose at home. Don't need to think twice about this game. 

Week 4: No Faith in LA

Who are these LA Rams?

Two weeks ago, both Stally and I had all our eggs in the basket of the Seahawks crushing the Rams. That did not work out so well for us. Call us stubborn if you will, but we are sticking with putting it all on the Rams being a very bad football team.

With injuries all over the NFL, it becomes ever increasingly difficult to predict. However, here are our picks for the week.


Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Arizona over Los Angeles

Austen: I do not care that the Rams have won two in a row. I do not care that the Cardinals just got their butts handed to them by the floundering Bills. This is going to be a blow out. Talent always wins out. 

Stally: It's hard to believe that the Rams (2-1), who were shutout 28-0 to open the season in San Francisco, are somehow doing better in the standings than the Cardinals (1-2), who made it to the NFC Championship Game last year.  That just needs to change!

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Buffalo

Stally: It doesn't matter who starts at QB for the Patriots.  Bill Belichick's teams never lose at home to the Bills.

Austen: This is a crazy amount of confidence to put into a team who really has no idea who their starting quarterback is going to be. If Rex Ryan loses this game in spectacular fashion, he might not have a job on Monday. 

Week 2: Football Returns to LA (Kind Of)

Los Angeles has been known for a lot of things, but football has
not been one of those things for a long time. LA will have to
wait a little longer to add that to their resume.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
Seattle over @Los Angeles

Stally: Woof!  The Rams are far worse than any of us expected.  I mean, we thought they wouldn't be great, but a 28-0 loss to a lowly 49ers team?!  The Rams.  Are.  Terrible!

Austen: Nuff said. 

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Carolina over San Francisco

Austen: The Panthers might be 0-1 but the 49ers are one of the worst teams in the league. Do not let the 49ers romping of the Rams confuse you. They are a very bad football team. Carolina will be angry after last week's loss. This will be a blowout. 

Stally: I agree with this pick completely.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@New England over Miami

Stally: Jimmy G looked very comfortable in Week 1.  Miami puts up a good fight at home in this matchup each year, but usually gets runs over in New England.

Austen: This is a little too much confidence in the Pats, but I do not disagree with the outcome. The Dolphins fought hard against the Seahawks, but came up short. They will come up short again.

Week 1: NFL 2016 Kicks Off

Jimmy Garoppolo has a lot of ground to make up
to get the Patriots performing like Tom Brady did.

It's football season!  Let's get to our picks ...

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Seattle over Miami

Austen: Jay Ajayi was supposed to be the Dolphins' starting running back. He is a healthy scratch. DeVante Parker was supposed to be their big downfield threat that helped Ryan Tannehill take the next step in his career. He is injured and will miss this game. So far so bad for the Dolphins. Does not help they have to go to the hardest place to win in the NFL (Seattle). They will lose big. 

Stally: Agreed.  This was an easy pick.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over Detroit

Stally: I think we'll see a strong resurgence from the Colts this season, and I don't see a lot I like about the Lions.

Austen: The Colts defense is is absolute shambles. This is way too high to take a team that has a lot to prove, even if the Lions are also a work in progress. 

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
Carolina over @Denver