Week 12: All Over Underdogs

With highs in the 20s and winds in the 30s, it's going to be a
cold meeting between two of the best QBs in history. (Getty)

This is a tough week to pick teams, we both agree on that.  In the world of gambling, it's generally considered that the home team is gifted three points on the spread, just for being at home.  This means that if a home team is favored by three points, it would be considered a completely even matchup on a neutral field.

This week, there are four home teams favored by less than three points.  What does this mean?  It means Las Vegas is expecting them to win, but doesn't actually consider them to be the better team.  That makes it difficult for us to make predictions for the winner, because we can either go with the home team or the better team.

Here's who we went with:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
New Orleans over @Atlanta

Stally: This game had everything I don't like about a favorite: the Saints were going on the road on Thursday night against an underachieving division rival.  Something certainly could have gone wrong, but the Falcons were coming off a lambasting from the Bucs.  Sorry, but if you get blown out by the Bucs, you don't get any respect from me.  I was lucky that New Orleans toughed it out and avoided the upset.

Austen: I was surprised when Stally told me that was his first pick of the week. Then I took a look at what the other games were and ended up with this as my top pick of the week as well. 

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Detroit over Tampa Bay

Austen: The Bucs are finally playing solid football, but the Lions have been one of the better teams in the league all year. If it were not for Peyton Manning's possibly historic season, Reggie Bush would be a no brainer for the MVP. This offense is crazy dangerous and this defense comes at quarterbacks hard. This game might be closer than people think, but I would be pretty shocked if the Lions fall in this one.

Stally: Considering the other matchups this week, it doesn't surprise me that Austen took this one so early.  The Bucs might be playing better, sure, but they're still 2-8 this season.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
San Francisco over @Washington

Stally: The Redskins really don't matchup well against the 49ers.  San Francisco's stout defense will neutralize RG3's offense, while the 49ers's balanced attack has options to exploit a porous Redskins D.

Austen: Perfectly said. It doesn't help that Jordan Reed (the Redskins' all star tight end) is already ruled out for this one. 

Austen's Six-Point Pick
Carolina over @Miami

Austen: This could easily be a trap game for the Panthers after two huge wins against the 49ers and Patriots in back to back weeks. If the Panthers want to prove they are elite, they need to easily handle a struggling Dolphins team. I think they keep their momentum going. 

Stally: The Panthers have emerged as one of the better teams in the league, and while QB Cam Newton has played well, it's definitely been the defense that's powered them.  I'll take a team with a great defense any day, especially against Ryan Tannehill's passing attack (because let's be honest, RB Lamar Miller isn't going anywhere fast).

Stally's Five-Point Pick
@Kansas City over San Diego

Stally: My faith in San Diego has run out.  I said last week that if they were going to compete for the playoffs, they'd beat Miami; they didn't do that.  Kansas City's 9-1 record might be deceiving, but it's still the clear choice at home in this one.

Austen: The Chiefs had a rough loss last week against the Broncos, but they held their own for the most part in Denver, which is no easy feat. The Chargers are maddeningly inconsistent and they just love to find a way to lose. They might get beat up in this one.

Austen's Five-Point Pick
@Houston over Jacksonville

Austen: The Texans are a downright bad football team. However, the Jags are the worst football team I have seen in a long time. The Jags can't score points and they cannot stop anyone on defense. I still don't know how they won a game this year.

Stally: The fact that I thought Austen over picked this one is a sign of just how bad Houston is these days.  Heck, it lost at home to Oakland!  However, as Austen told me over the phone, "the Jags are the worst team in football.  If the Texans lose to them at home, that makes them the worst team in football."  Well put.  I don't think the Texans are that bad.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
Chicago over @St. Louis

Stally: The Bears are actually an underdog in this one, which should be a reflection more of St. Louis's legitimacy than the Chicago's lack thereof.  Still, I think the Bears are a good team, while the Rams are merely mediocre.  (St. Louis is favored by just one.)

Austen: Look for Rams's RB Zac Stacy to have a big game in this one. The Bears' cannot stop anyone on the ground and Stacy has been one of the best backs in the NFL this season. If the Rams' defense plays up to their potential, they will win this game. The problem is that is about a 50/50 shot, so I still have the Bears, but I would not be surprised if the Rams win, and even win big, in this one.

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Green Bay over Minnesota

Austen: I know Aaron Rodgers is still not playing, but their run game is going to have to carry the team until he gets back. That job gets a lot easier when you are facing the worst scoring defense in the league. I think the Packers get all three of their young running backs involved and eek out a win.

Stally: I don't like the Minnesota Vikings, but I really don't like the Scott Tolzien-led Packers.  The lesser of two losers in this one?  The Vikings win, barely.

Stally's Three-Point Pick
Indianapolis over @Arizona

Stally: Arizona is a surprising 6-4, which explains why they're the 2.5-point favorite to win at home.  But, like the Chicago-St. Louis matchup, I see a good team (Indy) vs. a mediocre one (Arizona).  Game location be damned, I'm sticking with the better teams!

Austen: I've been hailing the Colts as the cream of the crop in the AFC, and they still might be, but since their big win over Denver, they have beat the Texans and the Titans, both by three points, and got totally thrashed by the Rams. I too have to side with the better team, but don't be surprised to see Arizona knock off the Colts.

Austen's Three-Point Pick
Dallas over @New York Giants

Austen: I took this game just to piss off Stally. He loves betting for the Cowboys and against the Giants, so I got to deny him both in one fell swoop. I do hate betting against the Giants, but despite their winning streak, they have not proved much to me. They are still exceptionally mediocre and the Cowboys are a decent football team. I'll take my chances with Dallas.

Stally: You know why they put a hole in the top of Cowboys Stadium?  To allow God to watch the team play (allegedly).  With that said, Austen has also seen the light: Cowboys > Giants.  Welcome to the bandwagon, buddy!

Stally's Two-Point Pick
Pittsburgh over @Cleveland

Stally: This is the third straight game in which I've taken the road underdog, but in all three, the team is less than a three-point underdog (1.5 in this one).  As stated in the intro, the home team should be favored by three if it's as good as its road opponent.  In none of the three games is that the case, I'm continuing to take the better team.

Austen: The better team in this one is the home team. Don't let the Steelers fool you into thinking they are good again, because they are not. The Browns are consistently decent, whereas the Steelers seem to be a different team every time they step on the field. I like the Browns in this one.

Austen's Two-Point Pick
Denver over @New England

Austen: Have you watched Peyton Manning this year? I feel like his season is almost getting overlooked because it is just more of what we expect out of him, but this is the best season of his career. The Chiefs game was one of the best quarterback performances I have seen in quite some time. Did he put up 50 points? No, but what he did is only get hit three times for zero sacks against the best pass rush in the NFL, and he won the game. I've never seen a quarterback get the ball out as quickly as he did that night. Bum ankle? No problem. Peyton could have had no legs and played the same game.

So that's pretty much the only time you will hear me rant in favor of Peyton Manning, but he is doing some special things this season and I think that will include beating the worst Patriots team he has played since Tom Brady became their quarterback. 

Stally: Expected temperature at kickoff will be 21 degrees with a wind chill that makes it feel like 5.  Winds are expected to blow over 20 mph throughout with gusts higher than that.  Simply put: Austen just spent two paragraphs talking about Peyton Manning, but this game is going to come down to the running attack.  Last year, the Patriots won this game 31-21 thanks to a 251-70 advantage in rushing yards.  I like that recipe to repeat for the home team.

Stally's One-Point Pick
New York Jets over @Baltimore

Stally: Ok, four games in a row that I've taken the road underdog.  In this case, however, the Jets truly are the underdog (by 3.5 points).  They've swapped wins and losses all season on the way to a 5-5 record, and they were embarrassed last week in Buffalo.  This week should be a surprising win at Baltimore, although I can't give many reasons why.  I'm assuming Austen will ...

Austen: The Jets have the best run defense in the NFL. That's about all I can say good about either of these teams, so I'll take my Jets in this one as well. 

Austen's One-Point Pick
@Oakland over Tennessee

Austen: The Raiders are at home? I got nothing on this one, and since it is the Titans game, I'm sure I will get it wrong.

Stally: Yep, I agree, you will get it wrong.  When it comes to backup QBs, I'll take Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titans over ... what's his name? ... (Matt McGloin?) and the Raiders.