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| It's probably only a matter of time before Tom Brady wins another Lombardi Trophy. |
Of course, the two got busy with Stally managing to type up his thoughts two weeks later and Austen not getting to do his part until a return from Europe nearly a month after the draft. Even at that, Stally didn't get to responding until a while later, but we've kept the thoughts to Week 4 or earlier to avoid any time lapse.
1. New England Patriots (Austen, Pick 1)
Austen: The Pats are the best team in the league. Not sure weather or not they will be in the Super Bowl this year, but I think they have the best shot to get there out of any team in the league. They made the SB last season with an awful defense and their D should be significantly better with the additions of two all star rookies. Their offense has even more weapons and two developing running backs to help add balance. This team is scary good. Sometimes I really hate being a Jets fan.
Stally: But, I love being a Patriots fan! The team should be better than last year with a young defense that was greatly in need of experience last year.
2. Green Bay Packers (Stally, Pick 1)
Stally: With the Patriots off the board, the Packers made sense for two reasons. First of all, there's a large majority of experts predicting they'll go to the Super Bowl. Secondly, they're in the opposite conference as New England, so their path to the championship isn't blocked by a better team.
Austen: The Packers are the clear favorite in the NFC, but they will get some harsh competition from the Bears in their own division. I still think the Bears have a solid shot at taking the division this year, which is why I did not take them with the first pick, whereas the Pats have no competition in their own division.
3. Houston Texans (Austen, Pick 2)
Austen: I almost took the Texans with the first overall pick, but I knew Stally would take the Packers second and I could not wait on taking the Pats as Stally always thinks the Pats are the best team in the league (and unfortunately he is usually right). The Texans are the only team in the league without any real weaknesses. They are solid on all levels and have playmakers on both sides of the ball. They are also still a relatively young team so they will not wear down late in the season. I'd be surprised if anyone besides the Pats or Texans make it to the Super Bowl from the AFC, so I think I landed at least one Super Bowl team.
Stally: The Texans also will have little-to-no competition in the AFC South. It's probably the easiest division winner to pick, and I always like taking surefire division winners early before dabbling with possible Wild Card contenders.
4. Baltimore Ravens (Stally, Pick 2)
Stally: On their final drive of the season, the Ravens had two separate opportunities to be in a position to go to the Super Bowl and both fell through (pun intended, Lee Evans). If anything Joe Flacco has a year more of maturity and Ray Rice is very much in his prime. With the Steelers looking at a down season, this was a pretty sure bet to win the division and thus have a shot at winning the whole thing.
Austen: I cannot fault Stally for taking the Ravens here. The only real concern I have for this team is their pass rush. With Terrell Suggs out for the year, they might have some issues being as dominant of a defense as they have in the past. However, their offense should take some big steps with Torrey Smith being the game breaker that the Ravens have lacked for basically their entire existence.
5. San Francisco 49ers (Austen, Pick 3)
Austen: The 49ers might not go 13-3 again this season, but they still should win their division and that gives them a shot at going all the way to the Super Bowl. Their defense should be as good as last season and their offense can really take it to the next level with all the skill players they have added. They have the best running back group (they have four guys who could start for a lot of teams) and they have one of the best receiving corps in the league. Depth at those positions will be crucial to their success because of how often those players go down with injuries.
Stally: Let's not kid ourselves that Brandon Jacobs would be capable of starting for many teams. That said, I agree with your overall sentiment. I see them being more 11-5 than 13-3, but that will be good enough to win the NFC West and they have the make up of a team built to compete in the playoffs.
6. New Orleans Saints (Stally, Pick 3)
Stally: This pick looked much better before a dismal start. At the time, the Saints had just had their players reinstated, and I was more comfortable in a full New Orleans squad than an Atlanta team that always seemed to stumble at the wrong time. It appears that the loss of Head Coach Sean Payton will be a lot to overcome.
Austen: If Stally had waited to take the Saints, I would have nabed them with my next pick. I am glad he reached a bit for them so that I would not be staring at a 0-4 start for one of my top picks. I still think the Saints will turn it around after a rough start, but they already have almost no chance of winning the division over a Falcons team that's had such a hot start.
7. Chicago Bears (Austen, Pick 4)
Austen: The Bears just had their most impressive win in a year by knocking off the Cowboys in Dallas. Their defense is one of the best in the league and their offense continues to get better. Matt Forte and Michael Bush give them the best one-two punch at running back in the NFL. Brandon Marshall gives them the star receiver that they have been looking for and Cutler has been praying for. Oh yeah, and as I've said all along, Cutler is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league. They just might steal the division this year.
Stally: They're certainly not a sure bet to win the division, but they're a very good team. I can't argue with them being the first team selected for second place in their division, if that makes sense. To re-pharse: they're essentially the first team we've tabbed as a "Wild Card."
8. Dallas Cowboys (Stally, Pick 4)
Stally: Unlike Austen's last pick, I'm still in the business of drafting division winners. The Giants lucked their way past the Cowboys last year (the season would have been totally different if Miles Austin hadn't lost a Week 14 touchdown pass in the lights), the Eagles could be inconsistent and the Redskins are a work in progress. Dallas is always one of the most talented teams in the league, and I've made sure each year to secure a comfortable seat on the bandwagon should they put it all together.
Austen: I just don't trust Tony Romo to get it done in the playoffs, or even make it to the playoffs for that matter. Miles Austin gets inured too often. Dez Bryant is a total mess. Their defense has made a lot of progress, but they are still a wildcard. They should win around nine games, but that might not be good enough to even make the playoffs. Good team, but I don't think Jason Garrett is a quality coach.
9. Atlanta Falcons (Austen, Pick 5)
Austen: I was high on the Falcons this season, but even I did not think they were a 4-0 team. The move I liked the best this offseason was trading for Asante Samuel. A seventh-round pick for a Pro Bowl corner is an absolute steal in this pass-happy league. He is already paying off huge dividends for this team that has lost Brent Grimes, it's best defensive player, for the season. Matt Ryan has looked unstoppable this season and his offensive line seems much improved from last season. All signs are looking up for the Falcons.
Stally: If I'd known the disparity was going to be this great between the Saints and Falcons, I would have taken the Falcons first. I just didn't buy that they were going to put it all together, but they certainly have.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (Stally, Pick 5)
Stally: Perhaps I hedged a little after picking the Cowboys, but I felt the Eagles were the team we expected them to be in the last four games, when they went from a laughable 4-8 to finish the year at 8-8. If they carry that momentum into the season, they could live up to the hype they got before last season.
Austen: I hate the Eagles. I hate Michael Vick. I hate Andy Reid. Thank God Stally took them before I felt like I had to. They are 3-1, but have won by a combined four points. That is insane. The turnovers will catch up with them and Vick will get injured and their fast start will soon be a thing of the past. Still, this is around where they should be taken because of the insane amount of talent they have on both sides of the ball. I'm still glad I didn't get them.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (Austen, Pick 6)
Austen: This is not the Steelers of the past and that really showed up when they blew a lead to the Raiders last week. However, Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the league and Ben Roethlisberger is very capable of carrying this team on his back, especially if he is throwing to Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. If James Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall get healthy, this is a dangerous Wild Card team.
Stally: I think they're a Wild Card at best. The Steelers tend to be very consistent, but they seem to sprinkle a lackluster 8-8 into the mix every five years or so. Based on the make up of this team, I'd say it's about that time for them.
12. Detroit Lions (Stally, Pick 6)
Stally: The Lions have had an interesting ride on the media train. After last year, everyone was so impressed by the fantasy stars that the team got talked way up this offseason. Then, many experts pointed out that the Lions were probably being vastly overrated, and their stock plummeted to a point that was probably unfairly low. All in all, I'd say this team goes about 9-7, 10-6, optimistically, with the likelihood of being better than worse.
Austen: I've said all season, this team is one Matt Stafford or Calvin Johnson injury away from being one of the worst teams in the league. Considering they both have had injury concerns in the past, and the fact that their offensive line is still atrocious, that is really not that far fetched. Their defense made a lot of strides last season, but Eric Wright is gone and their entire secondary is a question mark. Throw in a group of weak linebackers and an aging Kyle Vanden Bosch, and you have a recipe for disaster.
13. New York Giants (Austen, Pick 7)
Austen: Getting the Super Bowl Champs in the middle of the pack is a steal. Stally holds resentment toward the Giants simply because Tom Brady cannot find a way to beat them. Eli Manning is one of the best in the league and has some of the best receivers in the league to throw to. They need some help in the secondary, but that defensive line makes up for a whole lot of weaknesses. They are still my favorite to win the division.
Stally: Yes, but I don't let my resentment ruin my objectivity. I realize you live in New York and get served a healthy serving of Kool Aid every January, whether you want to or not, but the objective truth is that this team is not that good over the course of a 16-game slate. They were lucky to make the playoffs in either of the two years they won the Super Bowl, sneaking in and then going on a run. As I said before, if Miles Austin doesn't lose a Week 14 pass in the lights against this team, it's never even in the talk for the playoffs. This is a mediocre team and it will finish as such.
14. San Diego Chargers (Stally, Pick 7)
Stally: At some point, we needed to break into the AFC West, as we theoretically should have run out of playoff teams with Pick 12. The division isn't lacking in depth, but it is lacking in terms of wealth. Three teams tied for this division at 8-8 last year with the Chiefs closely behind at 7-9. Like most of the teams I've taken recently (Dallas, Philly, Detroit), I'm picking the team that I think has the most overall talent on the assumption that they'll be the best team when they put it together.
Austen: I really do like the Chargers this year (I drafted Phillip Rivers for three of my five fantasy teams), but their mediocre play over the last two seasons is why they fell this far. They should win the division, but who knows with Peyton Manning joining the party. Their defense should be better than last season, but this team loves to disappoint.
15. Cincinnati Bengals (Austen, Pick 8)
Austen: For all of you classic rock fans, A.J. Green is Mick Jagger and Andy Dalton is Keith Richards. In other words, Green is a freaking rock star and Dalton might not make it look pretty, but he is much better than advertised. They make this offense rock and roll. Enough of the puns, but I'm a big fan of both of these guys. They have a solid offensive line and BenJarvus Green-Ellis gives them a physical presence in the run game. Their defense is highly underrated and has a great defensive line rotation. They might not win the division, but they definitely have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs again.
Stally: I'd agree. This team's upside is slightly better than average. I can't fault you for taking them here and I do think that A.J. Green is all world.
16. Denver Broncos (Stally, Pick 8)
Stally: Again, like I did with the NFC East, I've basically hedged. If the Chargers flop, which they have a tendency to do, I have to assume the Broncos pick up the slack. The big question is whether Peyton Manning stays healthy all season, that could legitimately mean a swing from about 11-5 to 5-11 (just ask the Colts).
Austen: I agree with Stally's logic, but I stand by my feelings that Peyton will not make it through the entire year. He is simply not his old self and he will not be able to beat the better teams in the league without throwing the ball downfield. Also, I don't trust this defense to be as good as it was last season.
17. Seattle Seahawks (Austen, Pick 9)
Austen: The Seahawks have had a great start to the season, despite falling the to Rams on the road. They might have lucked into a win against the Packers, but they still held that offense to 13 points, which is damn impressive. They have a great defensive line, their linebackers are highly underrated, they have two Pro Bowl safeties, and their starting corners have an average height of 6'3". This defense is playing out of their minds and Pete Carroll's questionable draft decisions are looking better and better. Russell Wilson is still a question mark for me despite his potential, but he is a great leader and he should be able to lean on Marshawn Lynch for most of the season.
Stally: It was actually 12 points that the Packers scored, so even better. I certainly underrated how much the defense could carry this team, as I had thought people were kidding themselves in suggesting this team could sniff the playoffs. I still think Russell Wilson could hold this team back, but they're looking like a pretty good pick at this point.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Stally, Pick 9)
Stally: I'll be honest. Of the teams left on the board, the Bucs are probably the only one I think could realistically have a shot at the playoffs. This is a team that went 10-6 in 2010 and started 2011 at 4-2, before losing 10 straight. I like Greg Schiano a lot as a coach and think that this team will play for him. That could end up with them going somewhere between 8-8 to 10-6, and I don't think they'll finish under .500 despite being drafted in the second half of our draft.
Austen: I really like this young Bucs team (again, no pun intended), but I am still concerned about their defense. It was horrendous last season and while it has been better this season, blowing that huge lead over the Giants did not inspire a whole lot of confidence. Josh Freeman needs to cut down on his turnovers, but with a much improved receiving corps and the addition of Doug Martin, who I think will be an All Pro running back one day, he should have a much easier time this season. Still, playing in possibly the toughest division in the league should keep them out of the playoffs yet again.
19. Tennessee Titans (Austen, Pick 10)
Austen: I really thought Jake Locker could rejuvenate Chris Johnson. Apparently, what CJ2K needed was a veteran quarterback. With Locker out of the game and Matt Hasselbeck leading the team, Johnson had by far his best day of the year. I cannot tell what the future holds for this team, but they still have a chance to be in the playoff hunt. They always seem to improve in the second half of the season and get into the playoff race.
Stally: I'm just not sold on Jake Locker. I like what he did at Washington, but I'm not sure he's a QB that's ever going to serve as the cornerstone of a franchise. Hasselbeck might be old, but he did serve as the cornerstone for the Seahawks for a decade, so it seems to be one of those cases where the Titans feel obligated to start Locker, as opposed to thinking it's really in their best, immediate interest.
20. New York Jets (Stally, Pick 10)
Stally: Look, this is ridiculous. Everyone was down on the Jets before the season, but I feel like Austen just assumed I wasn't going to take them and left them sitting there. He must have forgotten that I'm the kind of guy that would spite him for taking the Patriots by taking his team. The Jets have some talent, but the offense probably isn't good enough to take them to the playoffs. Still, there's enough there that they have more of a chance than the remaining teams.
Austen: Spite might have blinded you. Also, the Jets have now lost their best defensive player (Darrelle Revis) and their two best offensive players (Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller). For a team that already has very little talent on either side of the ball, these were hits they simply cannot overcome. Not many teams could take a hit like that. Mark Sanchez has been taking a beating and Tim Tebow looks as bad as I always thought he was. I love my Jets, but they are a total mess right now and they will be the underdog in every game for the rest of the season.
Stally: Nothing you just said is in anyway relevant to my pick. We did the draft before the season, not four weeks into it. Hindsight might be 20-20, but you can't hold future injuries against me as we write this up a month later. I'm going to take your lack of addressing my actual logic for the pick as a sign that you agree with me taking them here.
21. Kansas City Chiefs (Austen, Pick 11)
Austen: The Chiefs are improved on both sides of the ball. They got back all those all stars who were injured all of last season (Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, and Eric Berry). The addition of Peyton Hillis has not paid off yet this season, but I think he can really help this offense if he can get healthy. Their front seven is very young and constantly improving. They could be the ones to win the division if the Chargers disappoint and Peyton Manning falls to injury. It is not likely, but its still better than the alternatives left.
Stally: At what point are you going to give up the Peyton Hillis dream? He had one great season in Cleveland and that was it. He's had a mediocre career as a backup otherwise and, like the WNBA, everyone needs to move on from "expecting great." This team is coached by Romeo Crennel, who, despite being a Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator, didn't make a very good head coach the first time around.
22. Carolina Panthers (Stally, Pick 11)
Stally: This is the first team I've selected for whom I won't be making a case they'll make the playoffs. I expect Cam Newton to regress some, but I do expect the Panthers to be a respectable team. I took them because they have more upside than anyone remaining.
Austen: I don't like this defense. I don't like all the injuries to their running backs. I don't like Cam Newton's attitude this season. The attitude is a recent development, but it is not that unexpected. After a season in which Newton did everything right both on and off the field, you had to know there would be some problems in Year Two. Either way, they are a good team with a lot of potential. They would have been my pick had Stally not taken them.
23. Buffalo Bills (Austen, Pick 12)
Austen: I really thought this defense would make some big steps this year, but so far that has not even been close to the case. They have allowed 100 points in two division games (the Jets and Pats). Not a great start to the season. Considering the Bills usually start hot and fade at the end of the year, this is even more concerning. This is also a highly unproductive offense.
Stally: The addition of Mario Williams showed this team was willing to try to do what it takes to win. I certainly think the Bills will be less of the laughing stock than they've been in the past, but I can't say I expect them to finish any better than 8-8 if all goes well.
24. Washington Redskins (Stally, Pick 12)
Stally: The first couple weeks have already proven this: there's something special about Robert Griffin III. The Redskins likely won't contend for the playoffs, but they'll be improved over recent years and more importantly, they finally seem to be headed in the right direction.
Austen: I love RG3, but I did not trust this defense. The defense is the best run D in the league after four weeks. I did not see that defense coming and I did not see rookie sixth-round pick Alfred Morris helping this team lead the league in rushing (he also leads the NFL with four rushing touchdowns). Two all star rookies in one draft. Bravo Redskins, bravo.
25. Arizona Cardinals (Austen, Pick 13)
Austen: Stally was shocked when I did not take the Raiders as he thought they were the only good team left on the board. The Raiders have looked anything but, and the Cardinals are 4-0. I don't care how they are 4-0, they are still tops in the division. I love this defense at all levels. They have the best 3-4 defensive line in the NFL. They have two young pass rushers who have been a serious force so far this season. Their safeties are some of the best in the league. And Patrick Peterson is already one of the most dangerous defensive backs in the league. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best in the league, but the quarterback and the run game have to improve so that the defense does not have to entirely carry the load.
Stally: They were an easy field goal away from losing at New England and their other three wins came at home against less than special teams. The Cardinals will be a flash in the pan this season. Sure, they're on the fast track to a .500 record or better, but they'll fade as the pressure turns up.
26. Oakland Raiders (Stally, Pick 13)
Stally: Noboby's ever excited about picking the Raiders, but let's be honest, there's not a lot left. I have trouble making a case for how any of the other teams avoid losing at least 10 games, and I could at least see the Raiders being as good as last year. That means there's a possibility they could go 8-8.
Austen: I really like what the Raiders have on offense. However, that defense is one of the worst in the league, and they always seem to be that bad. Carson Palmer cannot stop turning the ball over. I hope they can get something going, but I'm not holding my breath.
27. Indianapolis Colts (Austen, Pick 14)
Austen: I love Andrew Luck and what he can do with both his arm and his feet. He might be a top-10 quarterback in the league after this season. With Reggie Wayne adding a veteran presence and Donald Brown adding a much needed force in the run game, this offense will only get better as the season goes along. A loss to the Jags really concerns me, but the real issue is head coach Chuck Pagano just got diagnosed with leukemia. He has a tough road ahead of him and the Colts will have trouble replacing him as his team has really taken on his personality in such a short time.
Stally: The future of the Colts depends on Luck's development as a quarterback. The faster he comes along, the more improved this team will be. I still don't think they have enough around him to be great this year, but they'll be far more respectable than last year's circus.
28. St. Louis Rams (Stally, Pick 14)
Stally: Here's an irony for you. Last year, Austen picked (in order) the 2-14 Rams, 7-9 Seahawks, and 8-8 Cardinals before I selected the 13-3 49ers with, interestingly enough, my 14th pick. Somehow, I doubt that history repeats itself in this case, but it is interesting that I got just one NFC West team again and it was with my 14th pick. In the Rams defense, everyone was high on them last season and they are still young, so they shouldn't be as terrible (which isn't saying much).
Austen: I actually like the Rams this year, but obviously not that much. Also, I hesitate on taking the entire NFC West. Stally made the right pick, but there is a reason they are still on the board.
29. Minnesota Vikings (Austen, Pick 15)
Austen: I took the Vikes here because I love Christen Ponder. I had him ranked as my top quarterback in the 2011 draft. Obviously Cam Newton blew up last year, but I still stand by Ponder. He is very smart and accurate. This is his first year with an offseason to really establish himself as the team leader, and his teammates love him. Special teams have been a big reason they are 3-1, but considering they were 3-13 last season, I am sure everyone in Minnesota is very pleased with this start.
Stally: I didn't know what to expect from Adrian Peterson. I could have seen taking the Purple People Eaters a little higher if I had remembered that he's a beast that looks 100% whether he is or not. I don't expect the Vikings to keep it up, but they're certainly looking like a value pick here.
30. Jacksonville Jaguars (Stally, Pick 15)
Stally: There's not a lot to say on this pick other than that I think they have more depth than either the Browns or Dolphins. I'd still be surprised if this team did any better than 5-11, and even that is an optimistic pick.
Austen: I have no faith in this team to be as good as it was on defense last year, which helped them be the seventh worst team in the NFL. They will be better on offense than they were last season, but they really could not be much worse than they were in 2011.
31. Cleveland Browns (Austen, Pick 16)
Austen: Two young rookies lead one of the worst offenses in the league, but at least they give them some hope. I see no hope in Miami so I'll stick with the Browns. Losing their best player, Joe Haden, to suspension really hurt this team.
Stally: I agree, I'd rather have them than Miami, for what that's worth.
32. UNSELECTED (Stally, Pick 16)
Stally: I'd rather not take anyone than take the Dolphins.
33. UNSELECED (Austen, Pick 17)
Austen: Ditto.
34. Miami Dolphins (Stally, Pick 17)
Stally: Fine, I'll take the Dolphins and their rookie quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) who likely will never be a better QB than his now-backup Matt Moore. Each year there seems to be a 2-14 team, and this is the one. Heck, they're not many years removed (2007) from being 1-15!
Austen: Cameron Wake. That's the only good thing I can say about the Dolphins.
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