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| If you need three reasons to watch Jacksonville, here you go ... too bad they're on the road this weekend. (Getty) |
It might not be the best week for the NFL, but it's certainly not a snoozer week. We know enough about how each team is doing to understand which of these games will have playoff implications and which clunkers we can skip.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @Houston over Jacksonville
Stally: Houston is a 15.5-point favorite. I believe that's the highest spread of the season and it makes sense as there's an 8-1 team hosting a 1-8 team. This was a no brainer.
Austen: Nothing more that needs to be said.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @New England over Indianapolis
Austen: This could be a lot closer than people expect, but the Pats have been finding a way to close out as of late and I think it will be the Pats run game, not Tom Brady, that wins this one for New England.
Stally: Hmm, I disagree on a few levels. First of all, you seem very confident about this game, so I'd have to lump you into the group of people that aren't thinking it will be close. I also question how intercepting Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone to stave off the Bills at home shows a prowess for "closing out games." Whatever. We both agree the Patriots will win.
Stally's Six-Point Pick - @Dallas over Cleveland
Stally: I can't see the Browns going on the road and beating the Cowboys. Dallas certainly isn't sliced bread-great but they're far better than 2-7 Cleveland.
Austen: I could absolutely see the Cowboys falling to the Browns, but in a week with a lot of close matchups, this is the right pick. With Joe Haden out of this game, but Browns defense does not have much of shot at stopping this offense. Tony Romo should have a great day.
Austen's Six-Point Pick - @Atlanta over Arizona
Austen: I just cannot see the Falcons losing two in a row. Matt Ryan has been almost unbeatable at home throughout his entire career, so falling to a Cardinals team that has really struggled to get much of anything going since their 4-0 start would be one of the bigger upsets of the week.
Stally: The Cardinals are just 1-3 on the road and the win was in Week 2. The Falcons, meanwhile, are notoriously strong in the Georgia Dome. Good pick.
Stally's Five-Point Pick - Green Bay over @Detroit
Stally: On The B.S. Report, host Bill Simmons made a great point: everyone is asking what's wrong with the Lions like we've all forgotten they stunk for 20 years. It's possible that last year was the anomaly, not this year. After a rocky start, the Packers have won four straight and have returned to being one of the NFL's premiere teams.
Austen: This will be a classic shootout, but Calvin Johnson's struggle to get into the endzone this season will come to bite the Lions in the butt once again. A healthy Jordy Nelson makes this offense too hard to defend.
Austen's Five-Point Pick - New Orleans over @Oakland
Austen: The Saints are on a tear and the Raiders always seem to come up just short. This will be another shootout that will be fun to watch, but Carson Palmer will make enough mistakes and Drew Brees will make enough spectacular plays for the Saints to come out on top in this one.
Stally: This seems like a lot of confidence to put on a 4-5 dome team going on the road in the elements, but the disparity between the way these two teams have been playing lately makes this a sensical pick.
Stally's Four-Point Pick - @Denver over San Diego
Stally: The Broncos are running away with this division, as the Chargers have proven to be less mediocre than we thought they'd be. San Diego winning this road game could turn the tide of the NFC West and life on Mars could change our perspective on the solar system, but I don't think either of those will come to fruition, do you?
Austen: The Chargers started the first matchup by going up 24-0 in the first half and still got blown out. It was the worst second half collapse in NFL history. I think that will add a lot of fuel to the Chargers' fire and help them play their best game of the year. However, their best still might not be enough to beat the Broncos.
Austen's Four-Point Pick - Tampa Bay over @Carolina
Austen: The Bucs' defense has not been great this year, but the one thing they have been able to do is make opposing teams pay for turning the ball over. Cam Newton should have around three turnovers in this game which will be enough to help the Bucs run away with this one. I really do not see the Bucs' letting this one slip away since they know that they have an uphill battle to get into the playoffs.
Stally: After last week's "experiment," let's call it, of picking the Panthers over the Broncos, I've had the opportunity to learn just how bad this Carolina team is. I was hoping Austen took any other game than this one, because this was clearly the best choice left on the board.
Stally's Three-Point Pick - @San Francisco over Chicago
Stally: The Bears were no good at all when Jay Cutler went out last week and Jason Campbell replaced him. Campbell will have a week and an extra day of work with the first-team offense, but he'll need more than that to beat the Niners air-tight defense.
Austen: The 49ers' defense has been a shell of itself as of late. They let Sam Bradford pass for almost 300 yards and Steven Jackson run wild all over them last week. They were lucky to have tied against the Rams so anything is possible, but the Bears' defense will have to score the majority of the Bears' points for Chicago to walk out of San Francisco with a win.
Austen's Three-Point Pick - Cincinnati over @Kansas City
Austen: This is simple, the Bengals are good and the Chiefs are the worst team in the NFL. The Chiefs are a different team at home, but they are still not good at home. The Chiefs have not had an in-game lead all season (their one win came in OT after trailing all game). The Bengals have the most underrated defensive line in the league, and that will force Matt Cassel into enough mistakes to give this game away.
Stally: The Chiefs are consistently bad, and the Bengals are maddeningly inconsistent. I'm not sure what happened to Kansas City, as their team really isn't that different than the one that went to the playoffs two years ago, I think a lot of it has to do with coaching. Even so, I'm going to give them the upset nod this week.
Stally's Two-Point Pick - @Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Stally: I forgot that Big Ben has a dislocated rib that is threatening to puncture his heart. Ouch. I'm not a Big Ben fan or anything, but get well, man. If I'd remembered that, I might have taken this game a little later, but I still think that the home-field is the difference when these two bitter rivals meet. Joe Flacco is horrendous on the road.
Austen: I have the Steelers, but with very little confidence. Big Ben was putting up MVP-type numbers on an offense that has been decimated by injuries, so his loss to this team is immeasurable. That being said, the Steelers offense is getting Rashard Mendenhall back so they should ride their three running backs against a surprisingly awful Ravens' run D.
Austen's Two-Point Pick - @Washington over Philadelphia
Austen: The Eagles are done. They cannot get anything out of their all-star players. They don't play as a unit. I really like Nick Foles' potential, but he needs a lot more time and experience before he is a legit NFL starting quarterback. RG3 is coming off a bye and has Pierre Garcon back. Even if he does not catch a ball, he commands more defensive attention than anyone else in that passing game. All signs point Redskins.
Stally: I agree. The Redskins aren't that good, but the Eagles are that bad.
Stally's One-Point Pick - @Buffalo over Miami
Stally: I got this Thursday night game correct. I went back to the time-tested theory of taking the home team on Thursday when in doubt. Neither of these teams are very good and the Dolphins were coming off a 37-3 home loss, while Buffalo nearly beat the Patriots in New England. All those things considered and the Bills made sense in this coin flip.
Austen: I had the Dolphins because I thought they would respond after an ugly loss to the Titans. They did not and showed that they are really as mediocre as we thought they would be. Ryan Tannehill had an awful day, and we will see plenty more of that in Miami.
Austen's One-Point Pick - @St. Louis over New York Jets
Austen: This kills me to say, but the Rams are a better team than the Jets. Better quarterback, better running backs, better receivers, better pass rush. Add in the fact that the Rams have been playing lights out at home this year and the Jets have a surprisingly tough matchup. Shonn Greene will need to run the ball over 30 times for over 100 yards for the Jets to even have a hope of winning this one.
Stally: I love to see the Jets play poorly, but I don't have as much invested in them and tend to stay a little more level-headed when it comes to assessing their paltry play. Are they bad? Yes, very much so. But, I still think they're capable of beating a Rams team coming off their season's Super Bowl against the 49ers last week.
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