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| In an effort to stick with tradition, the New England Patriots go first again! (Washington Post) |
It's Stally, and Austen and I are ready to kickoff Season 3 of the Stubborn OXen blog. The two of us haven't been very good at keeping score, but I can only assume that I've won both seasons. (It must be that Patriots dominate Jets confidence.) We have made a commitment to try and score the past two seasons when we take a week long vacation together to visit some fellow OXen in California and attend a few of our alma mater's games (which they probably won't win).
Austen and I did our season draft over the phone on Thursday night. It being Season 3 with both of us having had first overall picks the past two seasons, we decided to go with a coin flip, especially since we honestly can't really project who won last year (it had become apparent late in Season 1 that I had won, even once we stopped keeping score).
Being single, I selected "tails" on the coin flip. "I could use some tail," I joked with Austen in frat boy fashion. Winner! I select first.
Enjoy the season!
Stally (and Austen)
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New England Patriots
Stally: I don't mean to come off as this much of a homer. I realize that the Patriots aren't the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but they've gone first the past two seasons and I wanted to make sure the tradition continued.
In argument of the team, it does project to be one of those under-the-radar Patriots teams that took the league by storm about a decade ago. Sure, they've been favorited in recent years, but us New Englanders haven't seen any championship banners raised in that time. I'm ok with going back to the kind of workmanlike, no-namers that won three championships in four years from 2001-2004.
Austen: I was so happy because I probably have at least four to five teams slated ahead of the Pats this year. I took them first overall last year, so I am by no means a hater. However, this team has simply lost too much talent to be considered elite. This defense is hurting in a lot of spots and the offense is lacking playmakers. I love their running backs, but how often do they really want to take the ball out of the hands of Tom Brady? This team will win 10-12 games, but I do not see them lasting long in the playoffs, despite a very weak AFC.
Seattle Seahawks
Austen: Baring more injuries, I have a hard time seeing this team not winning the Super Bowl. The Seahawks can beat you in so many ways I do not see how you can possibly game plan for this team. Tarvaris Jackson could lead this team to double digit wins. I don't think I've ever seen a team this loaded. Usually when you see a team loaded with all stars, they lack depth, but this team has the best backups in the league at almost every position, especially on defense.
Russell Wilson doesn't get the credit he deserves. I wrote an article last year about why he should have been the Rookie of the Year over RG3. For the second half of the regular season, Wilson had a better quarterback rating of anyone in the NFL, and he had the best home quarterback rating of anyone in the history of the NFL. He has everything you want in a quarterback, except for height. He's only 24 but he has a higher football IQ than 95% of the guys in the NFL.
Basically I love everything about this football team.
Stally: I do like the Seahawks a lot but I can certainly see plenty of ways they won't win the Super Bowl. Put it this way, when I was drafting in a 14-team league for Austen, he said he had no interest in top WR Sidney Rice, and I have none in his counterpart, Golden Tate. I love Wilson as much as the next guy, as I have him in two fantasy leagues, but it's possible he has a sophomore regression, and last year was Marshawn Lynch's seventh in the NFL and the first he's ever been considered elite.
I can't argue that they should have a very good season, but I would temper expectations that they're a lock for the Super Bowl.
Austen: Golden Tate is that team's #1 receiver without Percy Harvin. Rice is a great player when healthy, but I think his injuries have slowed him down too much to be considered a top target on any team, even the Jets.
San Francisco 49ers
Stally: When we first started this blog, neither Austen nor I wanted to touch the NFC West with a 10-foot pole. (That was the season after the Seahawks won the division at 7-9). Now, we can't wait to get our hands on a few of these teams.
Sure, Seattle is great, but I'm with my former employer on this one. The 49ers won the division last year and really should have gone on to win the Super Bowl. I like them to win it all this year.
Austen: I want to see Colin Kaepernick for a full season before I throw out Super Bowl predictions for this team. This is not an offense loaded with weapons. Their starters at running back and wide receiver (Frank Gore and Anquan Boldin) are both past their prime and a steep decline could be right around the corner. Justin Smith, who still might be the best player on this defense, is turning 34 this season and losing safety Dashon Goldson to the Bucs is a huge loss for this team.
Kaepernick has had it pretty easy so far in his career. If his playmakers start breaking down and his defense puts him in a tough situation, how will he respond? We have yet to see him lead his team from behind for a win, and how he plays in that situation will tell you more about the longevity of his career than anything we have seen from him thus far.
All that being said, this is still one of the best teams in the league and they will be much better once they get Michael Crabtree back.
Green Bay Packers
Austen: This offensive line terrifies me, but I think the defense will make strides this year and Aaron Rodgers is still the best quarterback in the league. Also, I love Chicago but I really don't envision the Packers letting a division title slip out of their hands. Pencil these guys in for the second seed in the NFC.
Stally: I agree. It's hard to argue against a team led by Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are among the elite every season and that doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon.
Denver Broncos
Stally: The Broncos seemed like a favorite to win the Super Bowl last year before getting upset by the Baltimore Ravens on a garbage defensive play. Peyton Manning is as good as he's ever been and the addition of Wes Welker as a weapon could make this team deadly.
Austen: There is a lot to love about this team, but I just don't trust Manning in the playoffs. Also, from guys in their front office getting DUIs to Von Miller being suspended for four games to Elvis Dumervil being lost to the Ravens due to a late fax, the Broncos' offseason has just been pure chaos. That does not lead to long term success.
Atlanta Falcons
Austen: Mark me down as saying Steven Jackson is going to be the best free agent pickup of this offseason. He might be past his prime, but Jackson at 70% is better than the majority of starting running backs. He has been the focal point of the Rams offense for close to a decade and he pumps out 1,000-yard seasons behind a subpar offensive line. I cannot wait to see him as the third or fourth most dangerous weapon on the Falcons.
This defense has lost a ton of talent, but Mike Nolan might be the most under-appreciated defensive coordinator in the NFL. He gets the best out of his players and he knows how to get after quarterbacks, which they will do often this year since they should be playing with a lead for most of the season.
Stally: The Falcons still seem to get disrespected despite taking the top-seed in the NFC in two of the last three playoffs. This team has only lost four regular season home games in that time and blew a 17-point lead last year in the NFC Championship that would have sent them to the Super Bowl. I can't disagree with this pick. #Respect
Houston Texans
Stally: It's the time in the season draft when I start scooping up division winners. The Texans were a great team last year (yes, a great team), until the Patriots embarrassed them 42-14. They slipped to 12-4 after starting 11-1, but they still have big playmakers on both sides of the ball.
The AFC as a whole is down this season and the AFC South isn't very good. The Texans are a lock to win that division.
Austen: I think the Colts give this team a serious run for their money. Ed Reed needs to get back onto the field quickly to replace Glover Quin's production from last season (I cannot believe I just said that), who is now with the Lions. If Arian Foster struggles with injuries, this team will be exposed quickly.
New Orleans Saints
Austen: I know it is stupid to keep taking teams within the same division, but the Saints are the only team left on the board that I can really see making it to the Super Bowl. Sean Payton is back and this offense is going to kick it into high gear. I think 5,500 passing yards for Drew Brees isn't out of the question, and that is understanding that they are going to try to run the ball a lot more this year.
This is one of the worst defenses in the league, but all they have to do is not let up over 30 points a game and this team will have double digit wins.
Stally: I agree with Austen's assessment again. This is a great offense and that's enough to make it a contender, but the defense stops it from being elite. When you consider that this pick projects them as the eighth-best team in the league, I have to agree.
Chicago Bears
Stally: The Bears went 10-6 last season and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. All in all, I feel like they'll be better than worse this season as the Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall tandem continues to be one of the most potent (and underrated) connections in the league.
Do I think they'll go 11-5? I think they're more likely to do that than go 9-7, which is more than I can say about the remaining teams.
Austen: I'm always high on the Bears and they always disappoint me. This offense should be significantly better with all the upgrades along the offensive line, but the real question is how this team will function without Brian Urlacher. We just saw a Ravens defense without Ray Lewis, so have the Bears done a better job at replacing their Hall of Fame middle linebacker?
Indianapolis Colts
Austen: In five years, Andrew Luck will be the best quarterback in the NFL. He is a bigger Aaron Rodgers. His turnovers are worrisome, but he was a rookie who was deep bombing the ball more than any quarterback in the league last year. Also, he played behind a patchwork offensive line and consistently needed to get his team back into games due to their lack of defensive talent. They signed a bunch of free agents to help both of those issues, and this is a young team that is only improving. They might steal the division from the Texans if Arian Foster struggles with injuries.
Stally: I see the glass as half empty. Everything went right for the Colts last year and they really rallied around the Chuck Strong concept to support their ailing coach. I think they'll take a few steps back this year and be on the playoff bubble.
Dallas Cowboys
Stally: Here's another division winner. The NFC East, like last season, might have one of the worst division winner's records in the NFL, but it will be highly contested between average teams. I think the Cowboys are slightly above average with talent at almost every position, and I think they'll win the division. Tony Romo or bust!
Austen: Stally picks the Cowboys too high every season. In a loaded NFC, the Cowboys will get lost. After watching him at USC, I have a hard time believing Monte Kiffin can still even be an average defensive coordinator in the NFL, considering he was one of the worst in college football.
Cincinnati Bengals
Austen: The Bengals are the only team left on the board that I am confident will win their division. The Steelers have questions all over their roster and the Ravens looked as bad as I thought they would be against a Broncos team that was playing without their three best defensive players from last season and with a third string center. And don't even get me started on the Browns.
The Bengals have the second best wide receiver in the league, one of the best offensive lines in football, and the best defensive line in the universe. Seriously, the Bengals backup D-lineman could start for just about every team in the NFL. Geno Atkins is the best defensive tackle in the game and he deserves every cent of that $50 million contract.
Stally: I agree that this is a division winner, but there's a reason that it took us 12 picks to dip into the AFC North. This is a lousy division, as Austen said, and I think the Bengals could win it at 9-7. They do have the most intrigue and talent of any of the four teams, and they went 10-6 last season.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Stally: The Steelers were a disappointment last year at 8-8. I think they'll be better this season and considering I just said I thought the Bengals could win the division at 9-7, that means I'm lumping the Steelers right in there with them. I do think Cincy is the better team, but I think the two will be very close to one another in the final standings. I'll take a chance that Pittsburgh picks up another win or two and claims the AFC North.
Austen: With Heath Miller on the mend, Mike Wallace in South Beach, and their top offensive rookie out for probably the first month of the season, I have a hard time seeing where the production is going to come from. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but this is the least talented team he has played with, on both sides of the ball, in his career. The Browns might not be far behind them this year.
Washington Redskins
Austen: If the Redskins can stay relatively healthy, they win this division no problem. They won the division last year without their best defensive player, Brian Orakpo, who is now in a contract year. Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are the best outside linebacker duo in the NFL, but they have only played one season together (Kerrigan's rookie year). The Redskins secondary is atrocious, but that doesn't really matter if you can get to the quarterback before he can make his reads. Oh yea, and the Redskins have this guy called R2D2 or something? I heard he was kinda good ...
Stally: RG3! I love what that guy has to offer, but I worry about the knee injury. I have nothing to base my Sophomore Slump theory on for Russell Wilson (Seahawks) and Andrew Luck (Colts), but I do have something tangible to grasp with RG3: the knee surgery and a lesser mobility as a result.
Like those other two teams, the Redskins flew under the radar for much of the season and a lack of knowledge about the rookie QBs helped them excel. I do think that their weaknesses will be more exposed, and I don't buy the Redskins backfield. As I said with the Cowboys, the NFC East is comprised of average teams and the 'Skins will be just that this season.
New York Giants
Stally: It pains me so much to take this team, as I can't stand them and I think they're overrated every season. However, that's not really the case this year. No one is talking about the Giants and they've proven in their two Super Bowl runs in recent memory that they are capable of piecing together their hodge podge of blue collar players and doing enough to make the playoffs. With the 15th overall pick, I have to take a team that I think has a realistic shot at the postseason.
Austen: The Giants always find guys to step up when they need them most. I love them and I'd never bet against them, but this is really just about where they should be going in the draft. I just wish they had lasted one more pick.
Baltimore Ravens
Austen: Boy oh boy did the Ravens look bad on Thursday night. I feel like the Ravens are simply a much better version of the Jets. They are always a tough team to play, but when they lose, they love to lose in exceptional fashion. I definitely should have taken the Bucs here, but the Bengals love to disappoint me, and the Ravens are still the second best team in that division by a wide margin. Maybe the Ravens thought this was still the preseason?
Stally: Nope, they just suck. They have a bad quarterback that's way overpaid and without Ray Lewis, this team lacks the thing that always made them so good: a nasty attitude. I don't see them even finishing close to .500. You can have 'em.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Stally: Are the Buccaneers playoff bound? No, probably not. But, the offense has plenty of weapons and one of the best young running backs in the league (Doug Martin). I also think the defense will be ok, while not great. At this point, I'm excited to get a team that is capable of finishing above .500.
Austen: Josh Freeman is not a captain of this team for the first time in his career. That sort of tells you where this team is at right now. Uncertainty at quarterback leads to very bad things. The fate of this team comes down to Freeman, and I am running out of confidence in the kid.
Kansas City Chiefs
Austen: I almost took the Chiefs with my last pick, but I just couldn't take the team with the worst record from last season over the Super Bowl Champions. I also thought that Stally wouldn't be this high on the Chiefs either, and I was right. Andy Reid is going to have Alex Smith air the ball out this year and I cannot wait to see how he uses Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs might have the best bookend tackles in the NFL with Branden Albert and Eric Fisher.
The Chiefs defense will be the most improved defense in the NFL and I just love its potential. They have stars at every level of that defense and have one of the best cornerback rotations in the NFL. We are starting to scrape the barrel here a bit but the Chiefs could have double-digit wins this year and make the playoffs. They will have at least four divisional wins. Gotta love the AFC West.
Stally: Well, they won't win many divisional games against the AFC South, considering they play in the AFC West...and they won't win many games in general regardless. I was a part of a season when Alex Smith was the starting QB for the 49ers. It wasn't pretty.
And, you can say what you want about the defense being really good because they sent four players to last year's Pro Bowl, but it's not about Pro Bowl players, it's about wins. In 2012, the Chiefs sent twice as many defensive players to the Pro Bowl as they won games (two). The notion they win 10 or 11 is preposterous.
San Diego Chargers
Stally: Austen can beat the Chiefs drum as long as he wants, but the Chargers are the second place team in the AFC West. It's not like they stunk last year; they went 7-9. I don't think they'll be a whole lot better, but I also can't see them being a whole lot worse. There's enough talent to be mediocre.
Austen: Philip Rivers is done. He just seems like a crappy person and his team does not respond to him. Oh and this offensive line is probably the worst in the NFL. A team with no talent and a quarterback who has lost his way is a very, very bad combination.
Detroit Lions
Austen: Will the Lions get back to the playoffs? Probably not, but they will be a whole heck of a lot better this year. If Reggie Bush can find a way to stay healthy for a full year, this might be the best offense in the league this season. Their offensive line had to find a couple of new starters, which usually is not a good thing. Also, I think they are still fielding cardboard cutouts of players at cornerback.
Stally: You've probably hurt the feelings of cardboard cutouts across America by saying something like that. Still, I can't disagree that the Lions offense could be a monster. This was a steal this late in the draft, as the team is only one year removed from a breakout that took them to the postseason.
Arizona Cardinals
Stally: I'm high on the Cardinals this year. Carson Palmer might not be Kurt Warner, but Larry Fitzgerald finally has someone that can get him the ball, and I'm not totally out on Rashard Mendenhall still having something left to offer at running back. The defense should also be formidable, so I like the upside this team has to offer.
Austen: I love me some Carson Palmer, but he will not fare much better in Arizona than he did in the Black Hole. Yes, he has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, but he still has no run game to lean on and an offensive line that is a total mess. This defense could be great, but I fear for Palmer's health this season.
St. Louis Rams
Austen: I was debating Cards or Rams, so I'm glad Stally made the choice for me. I probably would have taken the Rams either way because they have so much more potential than the Cardinals. That mostly comes down to the offensive line play. The Rams have a solid offensive line, the Cardinals do not. I really do not see Carson Palmer making it through a 16-game season.
The Rams have three intriguing running backs who will attempt to replace Steven Jackson's production. At wide receiver, Tavon Austin should be the most exciting rookie to watch this season, and I expect Chris Givens to make a big jump in his second season. Jeff Fisher went all in on his old Titan buddy Jared Cook, who has been one of the most disappointing tight ends over the last few years, that is if you can be disappointed by a tight end. He has so much potential but that never seems to lead to production.
And that is just the offense, which is significantly less talented than the St. Louis defense. When the Rams get a lead, watch out because they have two great, young defensive ends (Chris Long and Robert Quinn) and two exceptional corners (Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins).
Stally: Chris Long is young? He's 28 and in his sixth season, I think he's as good as he's going to get. I'll say the same about Sam Bradford, who's never going to be an elite QB in the NFL.
The bottom line is that Austen just spent about three paragraphs trying to explain why the St. Louis Rams might have a better season than the Arizona Cardinals. Does it really matter which team goes 6-10 and which goes 5-11?
Philadelphia Eagles
Stally: This is a steal here, to be honest. This team lost its way in finishing the season on a 1-11 run and there's enough talent across the board for them to be competitive. I have a lot of respect for Chip Kelly and I do think the Eagles are capable of pushing the rest of the NFC East for the division.
Austen: Michael Vick will get injured, Nick Foles will have to start and this will be a rebuilding year once again for this team. Jeremy Maclin's injury might have been the most damaging offseason injury in the NFL. And I almost forgot, this defense is terrible.
Miami Dolphins
Austen: My hatred for sports franchises goes like this: 1) The Heat, 2) The Dolphins, 3) The Patriots. I needed to do that just to make it clear how much I hate taking the Dolphins right now. Either way, it had to be done.
With the Patriots reeling from one of the worst offseasons I have ever seen (everything from murders to Tim Tebow), the Dolphins have to like their odds of winning the division this year. I don't like their odds, but I'm sure they do. Either way, they have the talent to sneak into a Wild Card spot.
People deem Mike Wallace a one-trick pony, but he is way better than that. He is an all-around great receiver with once in a generation speed and is sneaky good in the red zone. If I had the choice between Wallace and Percy Harvin, injury questions aside, I'd take Wallace every time.
While the Dolphins added a lot of talent in free agency, they actually lost almost as much. Jake Long's production simply will not be replaced by anyone on the roster right now. This could be the biggest hindering of Ryan Tannehill's progression in his sophomore season. The loss of corner Sean Smith (who is now part of that Chiefs rotation I'm so fond of) is slightly offset by the signing of Brent Grimes, but if he struggles with injuries again, the Dolphins will have the worst group of cornerbacks in the league. Since the left tackle and corner positions have only grown in importance, I am some what confused by their strategy.
Stally: I don't really get where Austen went right there. He went from talking about a Wild Card to complimenting Mike Wallace to questioning what the heck they did during free agency. I think they're mediocre and I think Austen might have been saying that as well. Either way, this was a good pick at this point.
Tennessee Titans
Stally: I'm not totally out on the Titans. I own Chris Johnson is basically every fantasy league, so I'm of the mindset that he stops being a baby and starts running like he still can. Jake Locker is not a phenomenal quarterback, but he is deserving of a starting position and Kenny Britt is another player, like CJ2K, that's capable, if he gets his act together.
Austen: Jake Locker is a less religious Tim Tebow. He will never be a solid starting quarterback in this league. Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the best quarterback on this team, which is never a good thing.
Minnesota Vikings
Austen: How the heck did the Titans go before a team that went to the playoffs last season and have only gotten better? If I hadn't been drafting at a bar, I would have taken them earlier. Adrian Peterson is a total beast. I fully expect Greg Jennings to have a bounce back season, similar to Reggie Wayne last year. I'm still standing firm on the Christian Ponder bandwagon, although he now has everything he needs to take the next step in his career. Cornerback is still an issue for them, but the defense has talent on all levels. So far, this is the steal of the draft.
Stally: I'm not sure if I'd single out the Titans as the only lesser team to go in front of the Vikings, but I do agree they were a steal. It's easy to forget the Vikes made the playoffs last year (I did), but they needed to end the year on a four-game winning streak just to sneak in. I'd be surprised if they were over .500 this year, but I do think this is a great pick this late.
Cleveland Browns
Stally: The Browns went 5-11 last year with a rookie QB and RB. They're capable of improvement, so given the choices left, I'll take a team that I think will go about 6-10.
Austen: This might be the most talented Browns team since the team rebooted in 1999. Unfortunately, that only means they have the chance to be mediocre. They do have a solid shot at going .500 in the division, but I think they are a year away from actually making waves in the NFL.
Carolina Panthers
Austen: Cam Newton is going to take his game to the next level: winning. That being said, this is at best an eight or nine-win team, although I expect them to win more like seven. This defense is going to be so much better this season, although it couldn't really be that much worse. They one year away from being a playoff team, which is way more than I can say about any of these other teams.
Stally: They're not gonna win eight or nine games. The NFC South is a tough division and while I think they could go 6-10 like the Browns that I just took, I'm not excited about the Panthers this season.
Oakland Raiders
Stally: We're in the dredges now. I can't see a team winning more than four games with Terrelle Pryor at the helm, but the Raiders as a whole have more talent than any of the other three remaining.
Austen: This might be the least talented team in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Austen: This came down to the Jags or the Bills because I knew that the Jets would be there for me last. I have more faith in Blaine Gabbert than EJ Manuel, which is saying a lot.
Stally: I have nothing to add. That would have been my reasoning as well.
Buffalo Bills
Stally: I could careless at this point. I just wanted to see the Jets go last!
Austen: The Bills have some upside, the Jets really do not. This was the right call.
New York Jets
Austen: This is going to be a very long season. At least Tim Tebow isn't starting at quarterback.
Stally: Tim Tebow won the division two years ago as a quarterback. This team would be lucky to have him as their starter, although that certainly wouldn't get them too much closer to winning the division.
Austen: I'd rather start a one legged Geno Smith than Tim Tebow at quarterback.
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With that done, let's take a look at the projections for the season. (Austen's will be posted later.)
Stally's Projections
AFC East
3. New England (11-5)
Miami (7-9)
Buffalo (4-12)
NY Jets (3-13)
AFC North
4. Cincinnati (9-7)
6. Pittsburgh (8-8)
Cleveland (6-10)
Baltimore (5-11)
AFC South
2. Houston (11-5)
5. Indianapolis (10-6)
Tennessee (7-9)
Jacksonville (4-12)
AFC West
1. Denver (13-3)
San Diego (7-9)
Kansas City (6-10)
Oakland (5-11)
NFC East
4. Dallas (9-7)
Washington (9-7)
NY Giants (8-8)
Philadelphia (6-10)
NFC North
1. Green Bay (13-3)
Chicago (10-6)
Detroit (7-9)
Minnesota (7-9)
NFC South
3. Atlanta (12-4)
6. New Orleans (11-5)
Tampa Bay (7-9)
Carolina (5-11)
NFC West
2. San Francisco (13-3)
5. Seattle (11-5)
Arizona (7-9)
St. Louis (5-11)
Playoff Projections
Wild Card
New England 34, Pittsburgh 13
Cincinnati 27, Indianapolis 20
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Seattle 31, Dallas 20
New Orleans 37, Atlanta 34 (OT)
Divisional
Denver 30, Cincinnati 13
New England 31, Houston 24
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Green Bay 45, New Orleans 31
San Francisco 13, Seattle 10 (OT)
Conf. Championship
Denver 34, New England 24
San Francisco 24, Green Bay 20
Super Bowl
San Francisco 31, Denver 27
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