Week 2: Readjusting Expectations

The Eagles offense took flight in Week 1. (Getty)

Week 1 Recap

We'll try to keep score as we go this year.  There wasn't a whole lot that we learned in Week 1.  It seemed like maybe the OXen were off on the NFC South, as Stally missed on his pick of Atlanta over New Orleans and Austen completely botched the Bucs over the Jets (his six point pick).

It's also likely that the football power has shifted sides in Pennsylvania.  Austen missed on a pick for Pittsburgh and a pick against Philadelphia.  The teams looked opposite of how they did last year with the Eagles looking like they could be in contention, and the Steelers looking like they might just stink.

On the week, Austen's missed picks cost him dearly as he gave Stally three upset wins worth 15 points, and Stally won the week 51-26.


Austen's Points (26)
Picks - New England (8), Indianapolis (7), Kansas City (3), Miami (2), San Francisco (1)
Upsets - New Orleans (4), St. Louis (1)

Thoughts: I did way better with my lower level games than the ones I put the most confidence in, which hurt me big time. The Jets beating the Bucs might have been the most surprising upset of the week for me because I know how bad the Jets are and really thought the Bucs would be making a push for a playoff spot this season. The Jets pass rush was surprisingly fierce considering they are down their sack leader from last season, Quinton Coples. This is a young defense with a lot of promise.

Now back to talking about teams who have a national importance. The Eagles offense was extremely impressive, but Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy will not hold up if they don't slow it down a bit. They also have to get better production out of Bryce Brown. Less than three yards a carry is not going to cut it. 

My best pick of the week was the Saints over the Falcons, even though Stally essentially made that one for me (that is the type of week I had). I was pretty confident they would win, but not by holding the Falcons to under 20 points. I am very interested to see if that was a fluke or if this defense is responding to Rob Ryan after being one of the most embarrassing defense in 2012. 

My worst picks were clearly the Bucs and Steelers. I was not high on the Steelers, but I was on the Bucs. I still need to reevaluate how I look at both of these teams because they are worse than I thought they would be. Maybe this was the wakeup call they needed to right the ship, or maybe it was just a taste of what we will see all season long.

Stally's Points (51)
Picks - Denver (8), Seattle (7), Houston (6), Chicago (5), Detroit (3), Dallas (2)
Upsets - New York Jets (6), Tennessee (5), Philadelphia (4)

Thoughts: My best pick was Tennessee to upset Pittsburgh.  I was fortunate Austen gave me that one for five points, but I did have the Titans.  I just had a feeling they'd have something for the Steelers and did.

My worst pick was probably the Saints-Falcons.  I think if I'd known how hurt Roddy White was for Atlanta, I would have shied away.

The biggest surprise was just how well Chip Kelly translated his Oregon offense to the NFL.  Like Austen, I picked the Redskins and that pick was clearly wrong.

Week 2 Picks

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over New York Jets

Stally: This is my favorite pick every season, and it seems like I always get to go first when it comes up.  New England at home against the Jets is about the surest thing out there, or so my overconfidence led me to believe.  The Pats indeed won on Thursday night, but the offense is the most miserable of any Tom Brady's played with and the team would be 0-2 if it hadn't kicked off against two of the worst teams in the league (Buffalo and the Jets).

Austen: I thought it would be a close game and I was right. Just thought Geno Smith would be more efficient than he was on Thursday night. At least the Jets made Stally sweat it out a bit.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Atlanta over St. Louis

Austen: The Rams are much better at home and Matt Ryan just does not lose at home. The Falcons are in Super Bowl or bust mode so I cannot see them bringing less than 100% after a tough loss to the Saints.

Stally: I have this ranked with 15 confidence points behind the Pats-Jets game.  Austen is in on the Rams being ok.  I'm not; I don't expect them to be very good.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Houston over Tennessee

Stally: The games are going to fall off pretty quickly, so this is really the last sure thing out there.  The Texans don't look as dominant as they were last year and barely beat the Chargers on Monday night, but home against one of the lesser teams in the league should yield a win.

Austen: Stally is always right when it comes to the Titans, and I am always wrong. This week we agree so we shall see how it goes. 

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
Denver over @New York Giants

Austen: This is how little faith I have in the rest of these games. I think this one will be close, since it is in New York, or New Jersey, or whatever, but Tony Romo tore up this defense last week. Peyton Manning is somewhere licking his chops.

Stally: I can't disagree with your logic, but even you seem to be admitting that this is an over-draft, Austen.  I just can't see putting so little confidence in the Giants at home, but I do expect the Broncos to win.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Philadelphia over San Diego

Stally: Not only is it nice that USC doesn't have to play against Chip Kelly's offense at Oregon any longer, but it's just as nice that I can now watch it with amazement as opposed to disgust.  As the Eagles offense gets acclimated to the tempo of play, it's going to get harder and harder for defenses to ever get comfortable against them.  I like the Eagles by two scores in this one.

Austen: The Eagles face a tougher crowd at home than away, so I don't feel like they have much of a home-field advantage. That being said, they are the slightly better team and as I always say, a cross country trip almost always means a loss for the away team. 

Austen's Six-Point Pick
@Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

Austen: The Steelers are in deep trouble. This is the least talented team Mike Tomlin has fielded in his career. This is also the best Bengals team in over a decade. This one could get ugly for Big Ben against this defensive line.

Stally: The AFC North games always seem to be relatively close.  I don't think the Bengals blow out the Steelers, but I do think they win comfortably by a touchdown.

Stally's Five-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over Miami

Stally: Somehow I overlooked that I'd ranked Chicago over Minnesota with 12 confidence points and that the game was still on the board (it will fall for a lot longer).  I don't like this pick, as the Colts barely beat the Raiders at home and the Dolphins are halfway decent and usually play better on the road.  However, I do still think Indy is the clear favorite.

Austen: The Colts are much better at home. That's the only reason I like them in this game. These teams are pretty evenly matched.

Austen's Five-Point Pick
@Green Bay over Washington

Austen: The Redskins defense is just too bad to keep up with all the offensive weapons at Aaron Rodgers's disposal. He might take a lot of sacks in this game, but he should still be able to hit on a ton of big plays. 

Stally: Everyone seems out on the Redskins.  I'm not going to go as far as say they win at Lambeau, but RG3 and Co. deserve a little more respect than anyone's giving them.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
New Orleans over @Tampa Bay

Stally: There's a disparity in talent here.  New Orleans is a better team than Tampa Bay, which just lost to the Jets.  I am a little wary when a team goes on the road to a division rival, but I do think there's a big difference between these two teams.

Austen: I have this game a lot lower because Josh Freeman is one of those guys who can take full advantage of a bad defense, but will struggle to do much of anything against the tougher defenses in the league. The Jets rattled him early, but I do not think the Saints will be able to do the same. This should be a close one, but I do have the Saints.

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Baltimore over Cleveland

Austen: The Ravens got embarrassed last week so the Browns will get a very motivated team this week. That is not a good thing for a team that lost at home to a team they held to 20 rushing yards. The Ravens are just a much better team and they are at home. They could win big.

Stally: I almost took the Browns and then realized that I was pretty delusional in thinking Baltimore could be that bad.  Perhaps if this game was in Cleveland against a fan base that will forever hate the Ravens, I could rationalize an upset, but I can't here.

Stally's Three-Point Pick
@Oakland over Jacksonville

Stally: There's no way Jacksonville goes on the road and wins this game.  They need to score points to have a chance to win and the two-point safety the defense put up last week in a 28-2 homeless to the mediocre Chiefs isn't gonna get it done.  I'm gonna go on record and proclaim right now that the Jags are the worst team in the league and that they go 2-14 this season.  (I counted out those games for Austen on the phone this week, not that he disagreed with me.)

Austen: Since starting this blog, I have probably taken the Jags to win a game once. Obviously they have won more games than that, but not by much. They are always a safe bet to lose, but the Raiders aren't exactly a powerhouse. The Raiders should win this one, but they are still the Raiders.

Austen's Three-Point Pick
@Chicago over Minnesota

Austen: I lucked out and Stally totally forgot this matchup was left on the board. The Bears won a close one over a very talented Bengals team last week. Also, I'm pretty sure this team is still mad that the Vikings beat them out for a playoff spot last season, so they will be coming at this team hard.

Stally: I would have taken this five picks ago if I hadn't somehow skipped over it on my list.  The Bears will win this one handily.  The Vikings offense was miserable against the Lions, barring one big Adrian Peterson run, and the Bears defense is much better.

Stally's Two-Point Pick
Detroit over @Arizona

Stally: I love this Lions offense, and I think it will thrive in Arizona's indoor stadium.  I just don't see Carson Palmer and his Cardinals doing enough damage to keep up on the scoreboard.

Austen: I have the Cards in this one, but Larry Fitzgerald's injury scares me. I think this will turn into a shootout in the fourth quarter and I think it will come down to corner Patrick Peterson making a play, either on defense or offense, that will win it for his team. This guy is going to be the second coming of Deion Sanders. 

Austen's Two-Point Pick
@Seattle over San Francisco

Austen: Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL. That's the only reason I am taking them right now. It took Anquan Boldin gaining over 200 yards for the 49ers to beat the Packers last week. That is not going to happen this week against the most talented defensive backfield in the league. This will be a nail biter but some Russell Wilson magic will give the Seahawks the win.

Stally: I'm sticking with my preseason assertion that the 49ers are the better team.  This will be a great game, I won't argue with that, but I do think that the Niners have a little more offensive diversity and their defense is just as tough as the Seahawks.

Stally's One-Point Pick
Dallas over @Kansas City

Stally: I had more confidence in this one than the Lions, but had hoped Austen would take Kansas City with his two-point pick since I know that Alex Smith is his buddy.  Alas, that didn't work out, so I'm taking Dallas now.  Arrowhead Stadium isn't an easy place to play, but I'm not immediately sold on the Chiefs being great just because they lambasted the Jags; a lot of teams will do the same this season.

Austen: The Chiefs are not great, but neither are the Cowboys. They let the Giants hang around all game despite six turnovers! That is simply unacceptable. This is the exact type of game the Chiefs usually steal from a superior team. Tony Romo is not known for dealing well with harsh crowds and the Chiefs D will be gunning for him all game. I don't think his offensive line will hold up.

Austen's One-Point Pick
Carolina over @Buffalo

Austen: This might be the most games Stally and I have ever disagreed on in one week. Stally still hates Cam Newton, but you have to give credit where credit is due. He is a very good quarterback and leads a team that is vastly more talented than the Bills. The Bills looked good against the Pats, but so did the Jets. Neither team is in the same class as the Panthers when it comes to talent. The Bills are also still down their top corner, so I think Steve Smith will have a day and a half.

Stally: I watched the Bills play for fourth quarters in Week 1 and I don't think Austen saw a snap, so don't put too much weight on his comparisons between the Patriots games against the Bills and Jets.  Buffalo put up a good fight and seemed to believe in their new coach, and more importantly, their new quarterback.  I don't really think Cam Newton is a whole lot better than EJ Manuel, who seems to be far more competent than any of the critics gave him credit for.