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| Remember when Peyton Manning almost went to the Titans? This week he will be tearing them up, just like he did in Indy for years. |
The two of us play in three leagues together, including a prestigious keeper league. This will be the first time we've met in the playoffs of that league since Austen joined in 2011.
Austen has won the championship both seasons he's played, but his team has been having a down year. He enters the playoffs at 7-6 as the fourth seed. Meanwhile, Stally completely blew up his team after a 1-5 start and had an impressive second half, ending at 6-7 as the fifth seed. He's made it to five championships in the eight-year history of the league, but none since Austen joined.
Elsewhere, Stally snuck into the Theta Chi playoffs as the sixth seed at 6-7, while Austen missed with a 5-8 record (eighth seed). Conversely, Austen will try to lock up the top seed in the nicknamed "NYC League" in the final week of the regular season, while Stally will play in a win-or-go-home game as the fourth vs. fifth seed (it's a four-team playoff).
Oh yeah, and for all this to happen, there needs to be some real football played. That's going to be hard to predict this week, but we'll do our best.
Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Denver over Tennessee
Stally: The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season and average over 10 points more per game than any other offense in the league. The Titans subpar offense simply won't keep up.
Austen: I'm terrible at picking Titans's games, but this one seem to be a lock for the Broncos unless something catastrophic happens.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Cleveland
Austen: My boss is a long suffering Browns fan and he showed me an article that said if the Browns win this game, the league should be investigated. And that is coming from Cleveland writers. The same article had another interesting tidbit, the fact that the Patriots have not lost at home to a sub .500 team since 1990. This is about as big of a mismatch as I can imagine.
Stally: Since losing to the Saints 38-17 in December of 2009, the Patriots most lopsided defeat was a 34-14 loss at Cleveland in 2010 (the last time these two teams met). That's inexplicable. The Patriots have been limping to wins this season and they've gone 9-3, but they haven't looked good doing it. I have no doubt they'll win this one, but don't be surprised if it's frustratingly close for New England fans, like myself.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick
Kansas City over @Washington
Stally: Yes, Washington got screwed on a horrible officiating job, but they were still over 50 yards from tying the game and considering it was third down (not first down like they'd thought) and they didn't convert for a first down on two consecutive plays, do they really have a case that it cost them the win? Probably not, they're 3-9 for a reason. The Chiefs are 9-3 and something would need to go wrong for them to lose this one.
Austen: The Redskins are a total mess. They would have a hard time beating anyone right now. While the Chiefs' defense has been skidding, the offense has been finding its rhythm. This rough patch might have ended their chances to win the division, but they really needed a reality check on who they are as a football team, which is hard to figure out when you consistently play inferior teams. By the time the playoffs roll around, the Chiefs are going to be a tough matchup for any team, especially in the terrible AFC. All that being said, I think the Chiefs win easily.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Baltimore over Minnesota
Austen: I hate this pick this high. I don't really like this pick anywhere, but it is that type of a week. The Vikings are terrible, and while the Ravens might not be very good either, they are so much better at home. I think Ray Rice has one of his best games of the year for the Ravens win, and hopefully for a fantasy win against Stally.
Stally: I agree with Austen when he says he doesn't like this pick anywhere, because I'm going against it. Snowy and wet? I like Adrian Peterson in a game where both pass offenses will be grounded. That and the Vikings are 1-0-1 in their last two games, so they're not getting beat up anymore.
Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Pittsburgh over Miami
Stally: It's a sign of just how hard it is to pick the games this week that I'm so heavily favoring a 5-7 team against a 6-6 one. However, as the weather shapes up to be cold and miserable, I'm feeling better and better about my pick that Miami won't win in Pittsburgh.
Austen: Mike Wallace has been coming on as of late and his play might be the difference in this one. Antonio Brown has been one of the best receivers in the NFL this season (who the Steelers resigned instead of Wallace), but the Steelers still miss that big play ability. I'd give Pittsburgh the slight edge, but very slight.
Austen's Six-Point Pick
@New Orleans over Carolina
Austen: This is going to be one of the best football games of the year. These two teams are built so differently that they might as well be playing different sports. Finesse vs. old school power football. The Saints are real tough to beat at home and are coming off an embarrassing loss in Seattle. I think the Panthers get 100% of the Saints, which should be too much for them to handle.
Stally: I have been very impressed by the Panthers, but they still have a ways to go before I expect them to win in New Orleans. I agree with Austen's assessment.
Stally's Five-Point Pick
@Cincinnati over Indianapolis
Stally: Since upsetting the Broncos, the Colts won in Houston (2-11) by three, lost at home to St. Louis (5-7) by 30, won in Tennessee (5-7) by three, lost at Arizona by 29, and won at home against Tennessee by eight. They're certainly not among the elite, and I think Cincinnati is clearly the better 8-4 team in the AFC.
Austen: These two teams are two of the best four teams in the AFC. That's not a question, that's a fact. That's terrifying. They are both shockingly mediocre. I put no faith in either of these teams. Cincy gets the nod simply because they are at home.
Austen's Five-Point Pick
@San Diego over New York Giants
Austen: Both of these teams love to find creative ways to lose games. Neither are very good (are there any good teams left in the NFL?), but Philip Rivers has been on a tear this year in reestablishing himself as an elite quarterback, while Eli Manning's rep has taken quite a hit. I'm sure Rivers still has a chip on his shoulder about the Giants's draft day trade and then watching Eli win two Super Bowls, so there will be a bit of extra motivation on Rivers's part.
Stally: A normal person would bury the hatchet on that one at some point (it was the 2004 draft), but Rivers does seem like the guy to hold a long-term grudge. In terms of Eli's rep, I already knew he wasn't good, so he hasn't lost many points with me, he's just proven me right. (Thanks, I guess.) ... Chargers win.
Stally's Four-Point Pick
Dallas over @Chicago
Stally: The Bears have lost to the Rams and Vikings in back-to-back weeks. They'll benefit from being at home, but the Cowboys are clearly the better team.
Austen: Both teams have good offenses, but the Bears's run defense is terrible and the Cowboys's pass defense is one of the worst in the history of the NFL. While the Bears have lost to the Rams and Vikings, the Cowboys have only beaten one team with a winning record, the Eagles, all year. And the Eagles were still terrible when they beat them. I think the Bears win this one and keep their playoff hopes alive.
Austen's Four-Point Pick
Seattle over @San Francisco
Austen: When there is a week that has this many close games, sometimes you just have to reach for a matchup. I love the way the Seahawks are playing and Pete Carroll always gets his team to play their best against top competition, even on the road.
Stally: I think this is a coin flip for sure, but do agree that the Seahawks are the better team and do expect them to win.
Stally's Three-Point Pick
@Arizona over St. Louis
Stally: The Cardinals are 5-1 at home and very much in the hunt for the NFC's sixth seed if San Francisco or Carolina choke down the stretch. The Rams, on the other hand, are maddeningly inconsistent. In the last 10 games they've played, only two have been decided by a single-point margin. That probably doesn't bode well on the road in Arizona.
Austen: Carson Palmer is injured. That is not a good thing from a team that is surging due to finally getting good play out of their aging quarterback. I have the Cardinals, but Palmer's injury concerns me.
Austen's Three-Point Pick
@Tampa Bay over Buffalo
Austen: Mike Glennon has a quarterback rating over 90. That is amazing. If Vincent Jackson misses this game (he is questionable), I like this pick a lot less, but I still like the Bucs' chances with or without Jackson.
Stally: I'd take Tampa Bay at home over Buffalo on the road any day.
Stally's Two-Point Pick
Detroit over @Philadelphia
Stally: Both teams are deservedly 7-5, just above average. The Eagles have been playing some good football, but I like the Lions explosive offense to win this one on the road. They had three extra days of rest and preparation after winning 40-10 on Thanksgiving.
Austen: If the Eagles win this one, it will be because they won the turnover battle. Nick Foles has thrown 19 touchdowns to zero interceptions. The only quarterback to hit 20 TDs without an interception was Peyton Manning earlier this season. I think Foles breaks Manning's record and helps his Eagles stay on a roll.
Austen's Two-Point Pick
@Green Bay over Atlanta
Austen: With all the injuries to both of these teams, I barely even know who these teams are. From what I have seen, the Falcons are terrible without any real weapons on either side of the ball. The Falcons still have weapons on offense and defense, so I'm taking the home team.
Stally: I'm actually taking Atlanta in the upset. This Packers offense is anemic under Matt Flynn and his swiss cheese offensive line. The only touchdown scored against the Lions mediocre defense on Thanksgiving was a defensive one.
Stally's One-Point Pick
Houston over @Jacksonville
Stally: Whoops. I had Oakland ranked higher in confidence than Houston, but had figured Austen would give me the Raiders with his next pick. Unfortunately, I would have been better off taking Oakland and left Austen to pick the losing Texans. I don't usually like the a bad team on the road on Thursday night, but I was impressed by Houston's play against New England. That was probably a fluke, as they lost to 4-9 Jacksonville for the second time this season and Head Coach Gary Kubiak was axed for the loss.
Austen: I cannot remember the last time the Jags beat a team twice. I had the Texans because I thought maybe they were putting it together after a close loss to the Pats, but obviously they are just wasting their talented roster. 2014 will be an interesting year for the Texans.
Austen's One-Point Pick
@New York Jets over Oakland
Austen: This might be the only game this year that the Jets are actually the more talented team, especially since the Raiders are down their top two running backs. I will hold out some hope that they can get the offense at least somewhat back on track against a porous Raiders' D.
Stally: The Jets have scored three points in each of the last two games. I'll take whomever they're playing, thank you very much.
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