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| This might be the only scenario in which the Bills knock off the Patriots in Foxboro. |
I cannot remember the last time so many playoff spots were up in the air. The only team that is locked into their seeding is the Chiefs, getting the 5th seed in the AFC. Two of the games this week will decide who will win the division and who will be sitting at home next week. The Seahawks could still fall from the #1 seed to the 5th seed. In fact, every division in the NFC is on the line this week.
It should be a great day of football (every game this week will be played today) and just like every week, it should be a crazy ride. Here is how the SOBs think the games will shake out.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Buffalo
Austen: If the Broncos falter in Oakland, this win could give the Patriots the number one seed. Not bad for a highly mediocre team. Either way, the Pats will try their best to win this and when is the last time the Bills beat the Pats in New England? The 90s? I'll stick with the Pats.
Stally: There aren't many guarantees in life, but among them: death, taxes and Tom Brady beating the Bills. He's 21-2 lifetime against them.
Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New Orleans over Tampa Bay
Stally: The Saints are among just three teams that that can go a perfect 8-0 at home this season. (I bet you didn't immediately name the Patriots and the Bengals as the other two ... ) Yet, if they lose, then they're an Arizona win over San Fran away from skipping the playoffs. They need this!
Austen: I agree that this is a game that the Saints have to have, but they have not been great over the last month or so. Over the last six games, they beat the 49ers on a bogus penalty, barely sneaked past the terrible Falcons, got embarrassed by both the Seahawks and Rams, and went 1-1 against the Panthers. That's not playoff material. Their defense has not been as good as early in the season, so I think the Bucs will give this team a run for their money. I have the Saints in the close one, but it might, just might, fall in the Bucs' favor.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick
Denver over @Oakland
Austen: Like I said earlier, the Broncos have the Pats on their heels. They will give the Raiders everything they got, which is way more than Oakland can handle. It also helps that Terrelle Pryor will be starting for the Black and Silver.
Stally: When we discussed this on the phone, Austen was trying to make some cockamamy argument about how the Broncos need this game more than the Saints need theirs. That's ludicrous. If the Broncos lose, then they might fall to the second-seed (the Saints could miss the playoffs). Either way, they're still going on bye and Peyton Manning still has the the touchdown passing record. Denver probably has enough talent to win on talent alone against Oakland, but let's at least not make it seem like the Broncos are some how playing for all the marbles. They're really just shuffling around house money.
Austen: I never said the Broncos need this game more. I'd take the Broncos over the Saints because while the Bucs' are a pretty solid football team, the Raiders are a total mess. Take the matchup baby!
Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Pittsburgh over Cleveland
Stally: You know, at the beginning of the season I said the Steelers would go 8-8? Well, after a 0-4 start, they've bounced back to a 7-8 record and have gone 5-2 in their last seven. They're not great, but they have an outside shot at the playoffs if they win, and I see no reason why they'd lose to a Browns team that is 1-6 away from Cleveland.
Austen: I cannot argue this game, but this division has had a lot of head scratchers this season. Neither of these teams are very good, but the Browns are definitely way worse.
Austen's Six-Point Pick
@Seattle over St. Louis
Austen: If the 49ers beat the Cardinals and the Seahawks lose this matchup, Seattle not only loses the number one seed, but they lose the division. The Rams have been playing great as of late, but they will get a frustrated Seahawks team that just fell at home to the Cardinals (Russell Wilson's first loss in Seattle on his career). I'll take the best team in the league over a hot mediocre team any day.
Stally: I re-ranked some of my games after the phone call with Austen and put this one over my recent pick of Pittsburgh. I think when I first ranked it, I had thought Seattle had clinched the top seed in the conference. Without having done that, they'll be at full strength (well, almost, Brandon Browner's still suspended for an entire season), and they'll beat the Rams handily. But, if they falter and end up as the fifth-seed, Austen will need to stop referring to them as the "best team in the league."
Austen: They are going to win handily and I will not have to stop calling them the best team in the league for at least another two weeks!
Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Stally: I really tried to show some support for the Jags the past two weeks, but they suck. They've sucked all season, and I shouldn't have let a couple of wins over two-win Houston change that. They've lost back-to-back games at home to Buffalo and Tennessee; their season is done.
Austen: Stally pointed out to me that the Colts and the Bengals are fighting to not have to play the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs. There's a big difference between the Chiefs and whatever team makes it as the 6th seed, so there's still a lot on the line.
Austen's Five-Point Pick
Carolina over @Atlanta
Austen: The Panthers really want to win this division, and according to the SOB's predictions, they will need to win this game in order to do so. Atlanta has played improved football the last few weeks, but they are still one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Panthers are not.
Stally: I had a weird feeling about Houston and Denver last week and I have the same feeling about this one. In that game, the Texans hung around before the Broncos blew them out in the fourth. I wouldn't be surprised if this one is uncomfortably close for Carolina. I would be surprised if Atlanta could actually turn the game in its favor, though.
Stally's Five-Point Pick
Philadelphia over @Dallas
Stally: I've seen kitchen strainers retain more water than Monte Kiffin's defense contains wide receivers. As we learned at USC, Chip Kelly owns his sorry ass, and the Eagles will probably score 50 on him before he even wakes up from his hot dog-enduced nap. I didn't think the Cowboys would keep up with Tony Romo playing, and now that he's out, I'm not putting my money on Kyle Orton either.
Austen: I love Kyle Orton and I've been on his bandwagon for quite some time. He is the highest paid backup in the league and is better that probably 50% of the starting quarterbacks in the NFL. With him in the lineup, they will be forced to run the ball more, which is something they should have been doing all season long. I think offensively, the Cowboys play one of their better games on offense, but ultimately the defense let's them down and once again loses the game for them.
Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Tennessee over Houston
Austen: Well, the last two times Stally and I have disagreed on Titans' games, I have came out on top. Once again I will test my luck going against Stally and taking the Titans at home over the worst team in the NFL playing without their top two running backs. I like my odds for a hat trick.
Stally: I just haven't been impressed with the Titans. They lost to Jacksonville at home when we all thought the Jags were the worst team in the league. Now, along comes an embarrassing Texans team that was supposed to win the division and instead hasn't won since the last time they played the Titans ... in Week 2. I think Houston pulls this one out just because. I mean, what else do they have to play for, anyway?
Austen: They are playing for draft picks!
Stally's Four-Point Pick
@San Diego over Kansas City
Stally: The Chiefs will be the fifth seed in the AFC. Win, lose or tie, that's where the Chiefs will be, so they can rest up this week. The Chargers, on the other hand, need to win and get help from the (gulp!) Jets to make it into the postseason. They're the sixth-best team in the AFC, there's no argument from either of us. I think that they'll show that in this one, regardless of whether or not they make the playoffs.
Austen: I'm in total agreement. Phillip Rivers might be the second best quarterback in the AFC right now (Stally might freak out when he sees this). Keenan Allen is an absolute beast.
Austen's Three-Point Pick
@Cincinnati over Baltimore
Austen: Like I said earlier, both the Colts and Bengals are playing to not have to face the Chiefs in the first round of the playoffs. It helps that the Bengals probably also want to knock their divisional foes out of playoff contention. Baltimore is not very good and they do not play very well on the road, so I think this will be a tough game for them to find a way to win.
Stally: Balitmore is not very good and they do not play very well on the road ... oh wait, Austen already said that ... As I mentioned before, I was as surprised as anyone to find out the the Bengals are 7-0 at home. This won't be their first loss in Cincy, not to a team that lost 41-7 at home last week!
Stally's Three-Point Pick
@New York Giants over Washington
Stally: It's not that the Giants are any good, it's just that the Redskins are this bad. I'm sure Austen is going to go on some ridiculous rant about how good Kirk Cousins is (4 TDs, 5 INTs, 58.5% completion, 70.7 QB Rating in 2013), but the stats speak for themselves. He's a backup because he's not good enough to be a starter. He doesn't help the Redskins win games (they're 2-6 lifetime in games in which he's appeared), and they won't win this one either.
Austen: Kirk Cousins is still my boy, stats or no stats. They aren't that different from the start of Nick Foles' stats to start his career. Both were guys I really liked as developmental quarterbacks in the draft. Obviously Foles has shown he can play with the big boys, Cousins will too before the end of his career. Unfortunately, he is still on the Redskins and they still have the worst defense in the league. I've got the Giants, but not with very much confidence.
Austen's Two-Point Pick
@Chicago over Green Bay
Austen: Aaron Rodgers is back! And Clay Matthews is out again. The Packers cannot get healthy and I think Rodgers will have to knock off some rust in this one. If the Packers win this game, it will be because of the run game, not because Rodgers has a huge day. I like the Bears in a close one.
Stally: False. Aaron Rodgers has been very patient in making sure he's fully recovered. He's back, and he's Aaron Rodgers; he will win this game for the Packers.
Stally's Two-Point Pick
Detroit over @Minnesota
Stally: The Lions should be ashamed that this season has slipped away from them and that the division winner might have a record of 8-7-1. How they managed to go from 6-3 to not even being able to put their hat in the ring for the NFC North in Week 17 is embarrassing. It really is. I don't like calling for people's jobs, but let me state a simple fact: this is Jim Schwartz's last game as the Head Coach of the Detroit Lions. "Point blank, period." (As Takeo Spikes used to say.) The least they could do is beat the stinkin' Vikings.
Austen: Schwartz has lost this team and they know they will not be playing for him next season. That sounds like a team that will phone in their last game and let the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings beat them on the road. I like the Vikings.
Austen's One-Point Pick
San Francisco over @Arizona
Austen: The 49ers are clearly the better team, but Arizona has been unstoppable at home and just knocked off the Seahawks in Seattle. That is something no one has done since 2011. That being said, Carson Palmer threw four picks on a way to a win in Seattle. That will not happen against the 49ers. I think the Cards's offense keeps them out of the playoffs once again.
Stally: I like the Cardinals at home. I really do. They're 7-1 in their last eight on the season and 6-1 at home on the year. I don't necessarily think they're the better team, but I do think they win this game. They've played too well down the stretch to not at least give themselves a chance.
Stally's One-Point Pick
New York Jets over @Miami
Stally: Any team that gets shutout by the Buffalo Bills loses my faith. There's also a part of me that feels awful that the Patriots inability to beat the Dolphins in Week 15 would result in such a subpar team sneaking into the playoffs. I'll put a little faith in Sexy Rexy to get his Jets amped up to mess up Miami's seasons. That seems like something that would get him excited. That and feet ...
Austen: Well I hate the Dolphins more than the Patriots so I sure as heck hope that they can at least beat Miami once this year. I've been looking at this game all season as our opportunity to knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs, and I think the Jets get it done in Miami. The Dolphins run defense is one of the worst in the league and the Jets tend to have success against teams they can run against.
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