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| Seattle has not been hospitable to Drew Brees when he's come to visit. (Getty) |
The OXen had split opinions on all three of those games, and it was Austen that got all three correct, albeit by a combined six points. Interestingly enough, the only game on which they agreed was that Cincinnati would beat San Diego, and the Chargers ended up winning by a laughable 17 points.
This week, there's again a mutual agreement on the first game selected with the other three being split-decisions, so it's likely that we're in for some good games that won't be decided until late.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
1. @Seattle over 6. New Orleans
Austen: The Seahawks have lost one game in Seattle over the last two years. I think it will stay that way for at least another week. Last time the Saints were in Seattle, they got creamed 34-7. I do not think they will get blown out again, but they should definitely struggle in the Seattle rain this Saturday. The Saints barely beat a very mediocre Eagles team on the road, so they are going to have to really bring their A-game just to stay in this one.
Score Prediction: Seattle 31, New Orleans 21
Stally: I was surprised the Saints even managed to beat the Eagles on the road, as I had gone with Philadelphia and was a defensive stop away from being correct. The last time New Orleans went on the road for a playoff game in Seattle (three years ago), it lost to a team that had gone 7-9 in the regular season. And, as Austen mentioned, the Saints got battered here this season as well.
This is the only one of the four games that I think is no-brainer.
Score Prediction: Seattle 34, New Orleans 14
Stally's Eight-Point Pick
2. @New England over 4. Indianapolis
Stally: After last week's 0-4 debacle in which I lost three games by a total of six points, I'm just going to pick the teams that I plan on cheering for this week. I don't have much else to lose ...
What do Cincinnati, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas, Chicago and Detroit all have common? They all had rosters in the second half of the season with more healthy talent than the New England Patriots. But, at 12-4, the Pats finished better than all of them, and they're the only ones in the group that's still in contention for the title.
That's due to two people: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and in their respective roles, they're also two of the best ever in the postseason. Andrew Luck might have all the glamour surrounding him, but New England managed to go 8-0 at home this season. When you consider all they've been through, it's almost mind-boggling that this team still believes it will win the Super Bowl.
But, you know what? They just might be naive enough to do it.
Score Prediction: New England 30, Indianapolis 16
Austen: Let's cool our jets here a little bit (no pun intended). The Patriots might be the most banged up team left in the playoffs. The left side of the offensive line is injured (not great when they have to face this season's sack-leader in Robert Mathis) and their defense is being held together by string. The fact that they are 12-4 is a testament to Bill Belichick's utter dominance as a head coach, although Brady certainly helps his cause.
Both of these teams are second half teams and both have quarterbacks who are phenomenal in the clutch. This is going to be one to watch for sure. I have the Colts eking out another close win, but nothing would surprise me in this one.
Score Prediction: Indianapolis 35, New England 34
Austen's Four-Point Pick
1. @Denver over 6. San Diego
Austen: Yes, the Chargers have already beaten the Broncos in Denver this year. That just makes me believe even more in the fact that they will not be able to do it again. When division rivals play each other in the playoffs, it is usually the last team to lose to the other one who finds a way to win. That should not be that hard for the Broncos since they are the far superior team.
Phillip River has been playing the best football of his career this season, but the health of a blossoming Ryan Matthews is a big cause for concern. If he misses this game, it could turn into a blowout quick, because the Chargers have relied so heavily on the run game to control the ball and balance their offensive attack. If San Diego cannot win the time of possession battle, they are going to be in for a long day against Peyton Manning and all those weapons.
Score Prediction: Denver 30, San Diego 27
Stally: As I said, I'm taking the teams I want to see win. For me, that's the Chargers. I put all odds against them to win the Thursday night game in Denver last month, but they won in a respectable 27-20 fashion. It was the second win in a streak that's now been extended to five.
I'm not sure why Austen just assumes that writing Denver as a "far superior team" is a consensus fact. Teams don't win championships (or rarely even playoff games) without competent defenses, and Denver doesn't have that. Its D ranked 22nd in scoring defense and 19th in total (yardage).
Yes, the Broncos have one of the best offenses in the league, but Peyton Manning has a long history of coming up short in the playoffs. Here's the number of points his teams have scored in playoff losses over the years: 16, 17, 0, 14, 3, 18, 24, 17, 17, 16, 35. I assume you need at least 20 points to win a game, so Manning's offense has come up short in nine of 11 career postseason losses.
Combine his playoff shortcomings with a bad defense, and I'm comfortable predicting this team loses in the playoffs. It's just a matter of when, and I think it will be this Sunday.
Score Prediction: San Diego 30, Denver 24
Stally's Four-Point Pick
5. San Francisco over 2. @Carolina
Stally: Who would have thought that the Panthers ugly 10-9 win in San Francisco was the difference between the Niners having the one-seed and having the five-seed?
Carolina had a great season. They certainly impressed me a lot more than expected, but they also have the makings of a one-and-done in the postseason. Most of the squad, including QB Cam Newton, haven't played in the playoffs, or at least not recently. They go up against a San Francisco team that made last year's Super Bowl and battled through the elements last week to beat one of the better QBs in the history of the NFL on the road. And, it's always hard to beat a good team twice in a season. I'm sure Jim Harbaugh has put a bee in the bonnet of his players to improve from the last time they played this team.
It was nice while it lasted for the Panthers, but the 49ers experience should win this one.
Score Prediction: San Francisco 23, Carolina 17
Austen: I had the Panthers until I heard that Steve Smith is 50/50 to play this week. If he cannot line up, the Panthers are going to have a very hard time winning this game because they really do not have another reliable receiving threat (Greg Olson is great but he is still a tight end and is not a deep threat).
As of now I am going to stick with the Panthers simply because I do not think that Colin Kaepernick has proven himself against the elite defenses in the NFL. He is still very young and unpolished as a quarterback and I simply do not trust him against such a stout defense as the Panthers. He can too often rely on his legs to make plays and he will have trouble finding much room against possibly the best front seven in the NFL. This defensive line is just beastly and Luke Kuechly has established himself as the best middle linebacker in the NFL. Also, how could Thomas Davis (Panthers' outside linebacker) not make the Pro Bowl?
This might not be such a bold prediction, but whichever quarterback wins the turnover battle, will win the game. Both would be wise to lean on the run game and their defenses. I like the Panthers's defense to win this one for Carolina.
Score Prediction: Carolina 24, San Francisco 16
Super Bowl Crystal Ball
Stally:
Championship Round
(2) New England 31, (6) San Diego 17
(1) Seattle 23, (5) San Francisco 20 OT
Super Bowl
New England 20, Seattle 17
Austen:
Championship Round
(4) Indianapolis 41, (1) Denver 38
(1) Seattle 24, (2) Carolina 13
Super Bowl
Seattle 34, Indianapolis 28
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