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| A.J. Green's 11 TDs this season were a big reason the Bengals scored at least 34 points in their final five home games. (Getty) |
All eight teams are good, but they all have their flaws. Some have struggled in games they shouldn't have, some are turnover prone, others struggle to win on the road. It's possible that the OXen run the table, and it's just as possible that not one of the games is picked correctly.
Both of us will be skiing at Stratton Mountain this weekend, so let's get these picks done so we can go hit the slopes!
Stally's Eight-Point Pick
(3) @Cincinnati over (6) San Diego
Stally: As the preview said, there's no sure thing this weekend, but the Bengals seem to be the closest to it. For starters, they went 8-0 at home this season, and their 11-5 record suggests they were clearly more consistent than the 9-7 Chargers. Secondly, they've scored at least 34 points in six of eight home games, including their last five. That's dominant.
On the other hand, after losing at home to the Bengals, San Diego needed to close the season with four wins just to sneak into the final playoff spot. I considered the Chargers to be the sixth-best team in the AFC, but that's not a huge honor as the conference had a lot of dredges. They barely edged teams like Miami, Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the final spot, and when you're fighting with that pile of mediocrity, it's hard to consider you a team capable of going on the road for a playoff win.
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 34, San Diego 24
Austen: I was very close to sticking with the Chargers in this one, but I just have to go with the Bengals. They are at least solid on every level on both offense and defense, and that is something that definitely cannot be said about the Chargers. Ryan Matthews has been a beast as of late (and helped me win a fantasy championship in a league I am in with Stally), but the Bengals can beat this Chargers team in so many different ways I have to side with Stally in this one.
I really think this will be a very close game, but I'm sticking with the Bengals staying unbeaten at home this year.
Score Prediction: Cincinnati 30, San Diego 27
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
(6) New Orleans over (3) @Philadelphia
Austen: Say what you want about the Saints road record, but they are one of the better teams in the league right now. Their offense is as dangerous as they come and their defense has been massively improved. They have one of the best young pass rushers in the NFL in Cam Jordan and Rob Ryan has this defense running on all cylinders.
The Eagles on the other hand have been highly mediocre. They have shown flashes of brilliance, but only on offense. Their defense has been mediocre at best. This team has only beaten two teams with winning records all year long, and one of those teams was a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers. Remember those dark Scott Tolzien days in Green Bay? Well that equates to half of the Eagles' wins against "good" teams.
This should be one hell of a game with a whole lot of points scored. I love Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy, but I'll take Drew Brees over them any day.
Score Prediction: New Orleans 45, Philadelphia 31
Stally: I was actually hoping Austen would pick one of the two 4 vs. 5 match ups, because I wanted to take the Eagles with my four-point pick. I suppose I can't complain about getting them for a free eight points, but I really don't want to have to pick a winner of either of the 4 vs. 5 games, so I'm not totally ecstatic.
It's worth noting that I'm typing this before Austen writes his part, but I bet he made this pick based on the names of the New Orleans Saints and a certain biased he has against the enigmatic Eagles. Here's the problem: Drew Brees and the Saints don't win road games. They finished 11-5 this year by going 8-0 at home, and 3-5 on the road. Since Brees joined the Saints in 2006, he's gone 4-0 in home playoff games, 1-0 at a neutral site Super Bowl and 0-3 on the road, complete with a loss against the worst team to ever make the playoffs (the 2010, 7-9 Seahawks).
Austen's going to give the Saints the benefit of the doubt because the Eagles are inconsistent. Fine, but I'm not. The game kicks off at 8:10 p.m. on a January Saturday night in Philadelphia and the temperature is expected to be 26 degrees. That's not Drew Brees weather.
Score Prediction: Philadelphia 31, New Orleans 14
Stally's Four-Point Pick
(5) Kansas City over (4) @Indianapolis
Stally: This is such a tough pick, and I don't really feel good about it. Indianapolis has beat all the good teams this season: San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, and they even won at Kansas City two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Chiefs went 1-5 against playoff bound teams. That all points to an Indy win, and the identical 11-5 records really don't do anything to sway me for one team or another.
All that said, I think the Chiefs have the more talented core of players, and I think that will matter on the big stage. Andy Reid's team got embarrassed at home in the 23-7 loss two weeks ago. He should have made some big revisions to the game plan, and the team certainly won't take the Colts lightly.
Either way, I think this will be a great game that comes down to a slim margin of victory.
Score Prediction: Kansas City 23, Indianapolis 20
Austen: I've been high on the Chiefs all year long, but I just cannot take them over the Colts. Indi has the better quarterback and the better coach, and they are at home. Throw in the fact that the Colts rocked the Chiefs at their own home gives me plenty of confidence. Andrew Luck is still one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL and he makes plays at the end of games that almost no one else can do. He knows how to win in a lot of different ways and I don't plan on betting against him.
Score Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Kansas City 24
Austen's Four-Point Pick
(5) San Francisco over (4) @Green Bay
Austen: When I look at these two team, I look at what they do well. The 49ers run the ball well, play great defense, and have a great offensive line. The Packers pretty much only throw the ball well when Aaron Rodgers has time in the pocket. Eddie Lacy has been great this year, but he has to face probably the best front seven in the NFL.
The Packers' offensive line cannot like their chances against the 49ers pass rushers, since they have been dominated most of the year by significantly worse teams. The Packers have struggled all year long at stopping about any offense, and the 49ers are just hitting stride with Michael Crabtree's return.
I think the 49ers are going to dominate this game in pretty much every faze of the game. Rodgers did not look very good last week against a terrible Bears' defense and things are only going to get tougher.
Score Prediction: San Francisco 30, Green Bay 17
Stally: I forced myself to flip the coin on KC-Indy because I wanted the Packers in this one and knew that Austen would pick against them. I can't fault him for not wanting any part of the 8-7-1 Cheeseheads, but I personally would take Aaron Rodgers against most anyone, especially at home.
The game will kickoff at 3:40 (Central Time) on Sunday, and the predicted high for the day is just three degrees. Of all the non-cold weather teams, I would think that San Francisco's smash mouth style would be most conducive to a strong performance in cold weather, but I'm not going to grant them the win.
The Packers take a lot of pride in dominating teams on the frozen tundra of Wisconsin. While they won't dominate per say, the weather and the fans will still be enough to shock last year's Super Bowl rep from the NFC.
Score Prediction: Green Bay 21, San Francisco 13
Super Bowl Crystal Ball
Stally:
Divisional Round
(1) Denver 38, (5) Kansas City 20
(2) New England 31, (3) Cincinnati 24
(1) Seattle 41, (4) Green Bay 17
(3) Philadelphia 24, (2) Carolina 20
Championship Round
(2) New England 34, (1) Denver 28
(1) Seattle 30, (3) Philadelphia 16
Super Bowl
New England 20, Seattle 17
Austen:
Divisional Round
(4) Indianapolis 41, (1) Denver 38
(2) New England 38, (3) Cincinnati 28
(1) Seattle 34, (6) New Orleans 27
(2) Carolina 24, (5) San Francisco 20
Championship Round
(4) Indianapolis 24, (2) New England 21
(1) Seattle 24, (2) Carolina 13
Super Bowl
(1) Seattle 34, (4) Indianapolis 28
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