Sunday, February 7, 2016

Super Bowl 50: Out with the Old, In with the New

SPOILER ALERT, Stally and I are both taking the Panthers. The season of Cam Newton rolls on, as he just won both the league MVP and the Offensive Player of the Year award.

This is the second year in a row that we get to see the two top teams in the AFC and NFC battle it out in the Super Bowl. This year, we get a historically great defense matched up against the highest scoring offense in the league, highlighted by a revolutionary offense schemed up by Panthers' offensive coordinator Mike Shula. This is strength vs. strength.

Peyton Manning gets his last shot at that elusive second Super Bowl victory. Cam Newton gets to put his MVP skills on display to over 100 million people, instead of being hidden in the small market of Charlotte. Who will win out? Here is how the SOBs see it playing out:

Austen: 

Why the Panthers will win:

While watching the Panthers play, it is hard to find any weakness with this team. They can beat you about 1,000 different ways with the most complex run game in the NFL. They love taking shots down the field with their fast receivers. And Greg Olsen is a game wrecker over the middle of the field and is the best tight end in the league not named Gronkowski. 

There is a lot of focus on the Panthers top-rated offense, but their defense is no slouch either. They have the best and most athletic linebacker corps in the NFL. Defensive tackles Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei are a force to be reckoned with in the middle of that defensive line. Oh, and there's this guy Josh Norman who is playing the best football of any cornerback in the league. Not sure if you have heard about him... (Stally: Odell Beckham, Jr. has...)

This is the most complete team the NFL has seen in years. I cannot fathom a way in which the Panthers lose this game. But just for the fun of it:

How the Broncos can pull off the upset:

The only way the Broncos win this game is if Von Miller is the best player on the field today. The combination of DeMarcus Ware and Miller is the Broncos only hope of slowing down the Panthers' offense. If they can keep the run plays from breaking to the outside for chunk yards and make Cam Newton play from inside the pocket, they have a chance. 

Peyton Manning might be a shell of his former self, but he is still capable of making 2-4 game changing plays for this team. If they ask him to do much more than that, they are going to lose. Manning had a great start to the AFC Championship game, but did basically nothing for the rest of the game. He only has about 1-2 quarters worth of slinging the ball around, so they have to make the most of those throws, especially once they get into the red zone. If the Broncos come out kicking field goals, they are going to lose this game. 

The Broncos can only win this game in a tight defensive struggle, and you do not win those types of games without a strong showing from your run game. We all know what we are going to get from Ronnie Hillman (plenty of unspectacular running plays mixed in with one or two splash plays), but CJ Anderson was supposed to be their breakout star at running back this season. While things did not work out that way, a big performance in the Super Bowl could go a long way for this NFL future. If the Broncos are to maintain a lead for any portion of this game, Anderson is going to have to be their battering ram in between the tackles to wear out the Panthers' defense and keep Cam Newton off the field. 

A lot needs to go right for these Broncos, but they definitely have what it takes to knock off the Panthers this week. 

Score Prediction:
Carolina 23, Broncos 13

Stally:

I'll keep it a little shorter because I agree with most of what Austen said.

Why the Panthers will win, because ...

They have the league MVP and Offensive Player of the Year in Cam Newton, the Coach of the Year (two of the last three years) in Ron Rivera, and a defense highlighted by the likes of Luke Kuechly.

I was a doubter earlier in the season, but the Panthers fully won me over.  They've crushed two teams in the playoffs that I thought were Super Bowl contenders (Seattle and Arizona).  I'd be shocked if Denver was able to punch enough holes in them on either side of the ball to pull off the upset.

But,

The Broncos will pull off the upset, if ...

The defense plays better than it did against New England.  I strongly believe Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in the history of the league.  I don't want to sound like a Patriots apologist with my analysis because Denver's defense played out of its mind against New England, but the Broncos had a favorable matchup to put Brady on the ground.  New England had no one that could run the ball and no one that could block, and Denver dialed up a blitz snap-after-snap that put pressure on Brady ... and that was barely enough to win.

Cam Newton is a different beast.  He can take off running, and he also has a much more solid running back than Brady had (in the form of Jonathan Stewart [great first name]).  It will be much tougher for Denver to knock Newton out of his rhythm, because he's such a big, strong, and mobile player.  If the secondary can lock down the receivers, it could allow the linebackers to stack the box and focus more on containing Stewart and pressuring Newton.

I might not sound convincing, but I had the same doubts Denver could beat New England and highlighted the same path to victory, a strong defense.  It could happen, but it would be a surprising upset.

Score Prediction:
Carolina 38, Denver 16