Week 16: The Elf Has Judged You

Sorry, Elf, no Tim Tebow this week ...

In the NFL, the Elf on the Shelf has made its determination as to whether or not teams have been naughty or nice, and Christmas Week will be judgement week for most.

Before Sunday's publish time, we already know that the Eagles and Giants have been so naughty that they've given away the division to the now 8-7 Redskins.  Elsewhere in the NFC, the Falcons will need to reverse a 38-0 outcome against the undefeated Panthers just to keep their faint playoff hopes alive.  Oh, how naughty Atlanta has been since a 5-0 start!

In the AFC, the Jets and Colts will be fighting for their playoff chances in games that neither are favored to win.  A Jets loss could push the Steelers and Chiefs through to the playoffs should they take advantage of games in which both are favored by double-digit points.  And, in a game that can't be taken lightly, the Broncos and Bengals will send their backup quarterbacks at one another in a game that will likely be the difference between hosting either the Chiefs or Steelers in the Wild Card Round (ouch!) or earning a bye through to the Divisional Round.

Here's who we've picked for this week's games:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Kansas City over Cleveland

Stally: The Chiefs are on an eight-game winning streak and that hardly seems in jeopardy at home against a team that's one Titans win away from the first-overall pick in next year's draft.

Austen: Words cannot explain how bad the Browns are. They do not do anything well, and a road game against one of the hottest teams in the league all adds up to bad things for this franchise. 

Week 15: Consensus Week

After struggling early in the season, Russell Wilson
has the Seahawks flying high once again.

This is a week of agreement.  In fact, it took us until the 16th and final pick to disagree on a game.  We'll have to see if we're really that smart after having watched the previous 14 weeks, or if we're just equally ignorant toward some potential upsets.  In the interest of the blog, we'll argue a little bit about the confidence with which we each took these games.

Either way, here's who we (both) picked to win every game except for Buffalo at Washington:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Seattle over Cleveland

Austen: The Seahawks are the hottest team in the NFL not named the Panthers. The Browns are still the front runner for the first pick in the draft. This has to be the unquestioned top pick. 

Stally: Seattle doesn't have anyone prominent to carry the rock, but the way QB Russell Wilson is throwing the ball around the yard, it doesn't need one this week.  This is going to be a blowout.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Tennessee

Stally: There was small concern around Patriots Nation when QB Tom Brady was listed as questionable with an illness.  That concern was over blown.  He's healthy and playing and should torch a Titans team that can't defend the pass.

Austen: The Pats could probably beat the Titans without Tom Brady, as well as all their other injured players. 

Week 14: Our First Podcast

This week, Stally is visiting Austen in New York.  We've decided to try to do our first-ever podcast where we've recorded our picks.  Below, we've listed our picks and the confidence points behind them.

The week's picks:

Week 13: The Cream is Rising

It's unlikely that Austin Davis leads the
Browns to an upset over the Bengals.

After several weeks of being too reactionary about the recent success or failure of teams, the Stubborn OXen are finally gaining a grasp on which teams are great, which are ok, and which ones flat out suck (which includes the 33rd team in the league: the referees).

While there was some disagreement later on down the blog, the opening picks were more or less a complete agreement in terms of winner and confidence.  Here are the picks for Week 13:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
Cincinnati over @Cleveland

Austen: The Browns are vying for the top pick in the draft. The Bengals look like a team who could sneak into the Super Bowl. This will be a blowout no matter how you slice it. 

Stally: Cleveland will be staring Austin Davis at QB.  I mean, that's ... not good.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Philadelphia

Stally: Philadelphia has given up 45 points in each of its last two games to Tampa Bay and Detroit.  Tom Brady might be down many of his best pass-catchers, but he doesn't need them against this Swiss cheese defense.

Austen: The Pats are really badly banged up and are not the same team without Gronk. That being said, the Eagles are playing some of the worst football in the league as of late. A win here might be the only thing that could save Chip Kelly's job, but that's just not going to happen.

Week 12: Turkey Week

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson started off
the week with a Thanksgiving feast of the Eagles.

Happy Thanksgiving!

This is always a favorite holiday for us Stubborn OXen.  Along with getting to eat a lot, something at which we both excel, we also get to watch a lot of football, another thing we do very well.

From our families to yours, and from New Hampshire to West Bum-Eff New York, have a great Turkey Day!

Here are our picks for the week.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
Arizona over @San Francisco

Stally: The Cardinals proved last week by outlasting the Bengals that they're indeed one of the best teams in the league.  The 49ers, meanwhile, continued to prove that they can't score enough points to compete.  Last Sunday's home loss was San Francisco's fourth consecutive game with 17 points or less. This one might be closer than the last time they met, when Arizona won 47-7, but that's about the only thing to look forward to if you're a San Francisco fan.

Austen: Blaine Gabbert has been a nice surprise for the 49ers at QB, but he has still been one of the top-five worst starting quarterbacks this year. The Cardinals are looking to bury the Seahawks in the division race and try to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. This game will help them with both those causes.

Week 11: The Undefeated and Undisputed

Cam Newton said that if people don't like his dancing in the end
zone, they just need to stop him from scoring ... easier said than done.

See ya, Cincinnati!

The Bengals unexpectedly fell from the ranks of the undefeated in an ugly 10-6 home loss to Houston last Monday night.  That leaves just two undefeateds: New England and Carolina.  The two teams are vastly different in terms of their build and their (preseason) expectations, but at this point, both look like they could make for a very fun-to-watch Super Bowl of juxtaposing strengths if they stay on the collision course.

Not surprisingly, these two teams top this week's picks.  Here's who we've got along with the Patriots and Panthers:

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@New England over Buffalo

Austen: Best team in the league at home against a rival they always dominate. The score of round one against the Bills this season looked closer than it was. The Pats dominated them. Might be an even bigger blowout this time around. 

Stally: The Bills won at New England last year for the first time since 2000 (the year before Tom Brady started playing).  It was a Week 17 game that meant nothing to the Patriots, and Brady only played half of the game.  That won't happen again this year, and it's still fair to say that New England doesn't lose at home to the Bills.

Week 10: Miracle at MetLife 2.0?

It has been a long time since David Tyree has been
relevant in the NFL, but the Giants will need some of his
magic to once again upset an undefeated Patriots team.

Every team in the league is at least half way through their season, yet we have more questions than answers when it comes to who are the legit contenders and who are the pretenders.

The Patriots, Panthers, and Bengals are leading the pack with their undefeated records. However, every other team leaves more questions than answers. Can Peyton Manning be good enough to keep a struggling offense afloat to help out the best defense in football? Will anyone emerge in the AFC Wild Card Race? Was the Falcons' early season success a mirage or can they bounce back after struggling heavily the last few weeks.

Some of these questions might be answered this week, but most might linger on for the rest of the season. Here is how the SOBs think the week will shake out:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Green Bay over Detroit

Stally: The Lions have become one of the most abysmal teams in the league.  They're just terrible.  The Packers need a rebound game after two ugly road losses (their only two defeats of the season) and this trip back to Lambeau will be just what they need.

Austen: Let's get one thing straight, there is nothing wrong with Aaron Rodgers. He is going to have one hell of a game this week and keep the Lions in contention for the first overall pick. 

Week 9: We Don't Like That

Kirk Cousin might have his own T-shirt, but even that
sweet T will not be enough to knock off the Pats.W

Week 9, really? Where does the time go.

This has been a wacky year so far to almost ludicrous proportions. Devonta Freeman leads the league in rush yards, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns. Chip Kelly's revolutionary offense looks like a bunch of high schoolers running around confused. Andy Dalton is the best quarterback in the league not named Tom Brady.

We have another fun slate of game this week. Watch and enjoy, after you read our weekly breakdowns of course.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@New England over Washington

Austen: Pats do not lose at home, especially to the Redskins. 

Stally: This was a pretty obvious pick.  The best team in the league at home against one of the worst teams in the league.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@New Orleans over Tennessee

Stally: The Saints defense didn't do Drew Brees any favors in his historic seven touchdown day, but the quarterback would not be denied.  The win gave New Orleans three straight against the Falcons, Colts, and Giants, all of whom are competitive.  It should continue to roll at home against an uncompetitive Titans team. 

Austen: Read between the lines of what Stally said above: the Saints defense is terrible. It took Brees seven touchdowns to knock off the Giants. This game should not be this high, despite the horrendous Titans coming to town. 

Week 8: Good vs. Bad & Bad vs. Bad

Get excited for games like Brian Hoyer
and the Texans versus the Titans!

We're on the road in San Francisco this weekend, fresh off having watched USC pull out a close one at Cal.  It's always nice to get together and do these in person.

There are two types of games this week: blowouts of good teams vs. bad teams and coin flips between mediocre or bad teams.  It's probably not going to be the most exciting NFL slate.

Here are our NFL picks for Week 8:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Atlanta over Tampa Bay

Stally: One of the best teams in the league at home against one of the worst teams in the league.  Um ... yeah.

Austen: No faults on this one. One team is good and the other is not. Tampa has some good pieces offensively for the future, but for now they are terrible.

Week 7: More Backups

The Titans will be one of the many teams starting a backup
quarterback this week. Is this the face of a winner?

Zach Mettenberger, Landry Jones, and Matt Cassel all will get their first start of the season this week. There have been an astonishing amount of quarterback carrousels going on this season due to injuries and this adds an even bigger wild card aspect to these matchups. Here is how we see these games shaking out.

Austen's Seven-Poin Pick
Atlanta over @Tennessee

Austen: Coming off of a crushing loss to the Saints, it would be unfathomable that a team that started 5-0 would lose against a Zach Mettenberger lead Titans team. The Titans lack any sort of identity even with Marcus Mariota, so it would take quiet the effort to knock off one of the most talented teams in the league.

Stally: I agree.  The only thing Tennessee has going for it is that Atlanta plays better indoors, but I'm grasping at straws on that one.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@New England over New York Jets

Stally: There are a couple Patriots traditions in the five years of this blog: 1) New England gets drafted in the first round of the season-long draft, 2) New England gets picked with max confidence points at home against the Jets.  Sure, it's a lot of point to put against a Jets team that's looking quite strong, but I'm picking the winning team, so who really cares how much spreads, lines, and confidence points?  New England will win.

Austen: I do not have a ton of confidence in the pick, but I am putting my faith in the Jets this week. They have been one of the most efficient teams in the league on both sides of the ball. After being plagued by poor offensive line play, their OL has allowed just two sacks all season, which is four less than the next best team. Chris Ivory has been the best running back in the league so far this season. Branon Marshall has had over 100 yards or a touchdown in every game this season. Eric Decker has scored a touchdown in every game he has played in this season. After rolling out one of the worst offenses in the league for years, the Jets finally have the pieces on offense to keep up with the Patriots. 

Week 6: Blowouts and Coin Flips

Don't make Tom Brady angry ...
you wouldn't like him when he's angry.

Austen is headed to Green Bay to watch a potential blowout, while Stally will be sitting at home on the couch, hoping to see the same out of the Patriots in a big revenge game.  However, when it comes down to the nitty-gritty of this weekend's slate, there are also a lot of games that are tough to call.  Even the Thursday night game was a big miss for the OXen.  After all, this is the NFL.

Here are our picks for the weekend.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
New England over @Indianapolis

Stally: The Colts aren't a bad team, but the Patriots seem to own them.  I wouldn't be a true fan if I didn't take them in the Deflategate Revenge Game.

Austen: Let's simply this. The Patriots might be the best team in the NFL. The Colts might be the best team in the AFC South. There's a big gap between those two designations. If the Pats don't win by double digits, it will be surprising. 

Week 5: The (Quarter) Year of Freeman

This little known running back leads the NFL in
touchdowns through four weeks of the season.

It is hard to believe that we are already a quarter of the way through the 2015 season. It always goes too fast! Lots of surprises so far this year. I mean who saw Devonta Freeman leading the league in touchdowns after four weeks!

As always, the SOBs are here to give you our expectations for the week. Let's see how we do.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick

New England over @Dallas

Austen: It makes no difference that this is a road game for the Patriots. The Cowboys just lost to a horribly banged up Saints team that had yet to win a game. This should be an insane blowout. 

Stally: I'm all for picking my Patriots and coming off a bye, it's hard to see them not being ready for Brandon Weeden's Cowboys.  That said, this game is in Dallas, so I wouldn't have taken it first because of that reason.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick

@Atlanta over Washington

Stally: Good team at home versus bad team on the road.  It's hard to see the Redskins challenging the Falcons in this one.

Austen: The Redskins have put some good game tape together, at least compared to what everyone thought they could bring to the table. Still, the Falcons are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and Matt Ryan always brings his A game in Atlanta. Good bet this game does not stay close for long.

Week 4: The Gimpy Quarterbacks

With no Andrew Luck, Stally still has the Colts
trampling the Jaguars in Indianapolis.

I simply cannot remember the last time there were so many injured quarterbacks to start out the year. Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, and now Andrew Luck will all have missed games due to injury in the first quarter of the season. That is crazy.

With so many injuries, it is hard to predict what will actually happen in these matchup but here we go!

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over Jacksonville

Stally: The Colts are at home.  The Jags are terrible.  This is a blowout waiting to happen.

Austen: Andrew Luck is out. Matt Hasselbeck is in. That is no bueno. Stally will regret this one when the Jags knock off the Colts..... maybe. 

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
Green Bay over @San Francisco

Austen: Did anyone watch Colin Kaepernick last week? It was one of the worst quarterback performances of all time. That will not change trying to play catchup against an improved Green Bay defense. Did I mention that Aaron Rodgers is good? 

Stally: I don't know if I agree with taking a road team this high, but especially since San Francisco only gave up three points in its only home game.  But, I can't disagree that the Packers are a clear favorite.

Week 3: The Week of the McCowns

We agree Brandon Weeden: "Yikes! You're starting this week."

I have not had a great start to the year picking games, but hopefully this is the week I bounce back. Let's see if it is Stally or I who come out on top this week.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Jacksonville

Austen: The Jags are going to put up a lot of points in this game, but most of it will be in garbage time. The Pats are going to jump out to a fast lead and they will not stop scoring points all day. If you are playing against Gronk in fantasy this week, don't watch ESPN this week. Its not going to be pretty.

Stally: There's no way you can convince me that the Super Bowl champs will be challenged at home against the Jags.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Seattle over Chicago

Stally: The only reason this game didn't go first is because the Patriots were hosting Jacksonville.  Seattle has suffered two tough losses, but they'll destroy the Jimmy Clausen led Bears in the home opener for the 12th Man, or apparently, the now more too-policitcally correct "12th Human Being" (thanks Mr./Ms. Jenner).

Austen: This is the biggest mismatch of the week, but the Patriots got the edge since they are 2-0 and have looked marvelous through two weeks. The Seahawks have not looked impressive and now Marshawn Lynch is banged up. If the Seahawks lose this one, they are in way bigger trouble than anyone could have imagined.

Week 2: Who is Who?

Can Ryan Fitzpatrick out duel Andrew Luck? Stally certainly does 
not think so as he picks the Colts as the blowout of the week.

After a week one that saw some big upsets (that Stally saw coming, and I was blindsided by), we will see what was just Week 1 hiccups and what these teams are actually made of. Should be another exciting week of football.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over New York Jets

Stally: While I did predict it, the Colts took suffered what some might call a "deflating" loss to Buffalo last week.  They won't lose this home opener.  No way.  No how.

Austen: Andrew Luck is a different quarterback at home. I like the way my Jets played last week, but the Colts have to be angry coming off of brutal loss to the Bills last week. I think the Colts will be merciless in their attempt to put up a huge amount of points on a fierce Jets D, which could lead to a lot of points or a lot of turn overs, or both. Either way, I do not give my Jets much of a chance in this one.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
Arizona over @Chicago

Austen: The Bears put up a good fight against the Packers, but that was against a rival. The Cards are one of the best teams in the entire league, while the Bears might be one of the worst. And the Bears will be without Alshon Jeffery. There is too much going in the Cards favor for this one.

Stally: Wow.  We disagree here.  The Cardinals are a solid team all around, but the Bears were more competent than expected last week against Green Bay.  I have the home team (da Bears!) in this one.

Week 1: Let's Kick Off 2015

Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots spiked
spiked away the offseason with an
opening night win on Thursday. (AP)

It's time for the 2015 NFL season and the Stubborn OXen are back for another a fifth season.  Here are our picks for the week:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Dallas over New York Giants

Austen: The only way the Giants can stay in this game if they find a way to run the ball incredibly efficiently. Teams that have a three running back committee typically refer to this as having a “three headed monster.” The Giants have more of a three headed kitten. Dallas is going to score in bunches on this Swiss cheese defense that is riddled with injuries and it will be too much for the Giants to keep up with.

Stally: Welcome to the Cowboys bandwagon, Austen! Once and for all we can close out our longtime debate: Tony Romo is a better quarterback than Eli Manning.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Pittsburgh

Stally: There was no way the Patriots lost the first game of the Revenge Tour at home, and they didn't. The 28-21 final score was far closer than the game itself, thanks to a Steelers touchdown with two seconds left.

Austen: Well this game already happened. I had a lot of confidence in the Pats winning this one, as the Pats always play the best with their backs against the wall. All the offseason controversy has only fuel Tom Brady. Despite losing their top four, yes four, cornerbacks from last season, the Patriots will be one of the best, if not the best, in the AFC once again this year. The Steelers look like they will have an uphill battle starting the season with two of their top three offensive players missing due to suspension and their offense getting no help from a young and not very talented defense.

A Super Super Bowl

Super Bowl XLIX Predictions

The two best minds in football will meet in Super Bowl XLIX.

Well this is the game we have been waiting for all year long. We aren't getting some hot wild card team. We aren't seeing a team that limped through the playoffs due to injury. We are getting to watch the two most complete football teams in the NFL face off against each other. It does not get any better than this.

While these two squads are evenly matched, we could not have two more different teams. Bill Belichick is a master schemer who makes his players fit into his system or be replaced, which he does better than possibly anyone in the history of the league. Pete Carroll is the epitome of a players' coach. He views his players as living, breathing humans and wants to bring out the best in all of them in order to utilize their unique skills.

Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson is a matchup of the old ushering in the new. This very well could be Brady's final trip to a Super Bowl, but I would be surprised if we did not see Wilson numerous more times in the big game. While Wilson might be looked at as the athletic "running quarterback," even Brady has to be humbled by Wilson's football IQ and moxie in critical situations.

Many will view this game as an offensive team vs. a defensive team, but both the Pats and Seahawks are capable of being dominant on either side of the ball. They both can beat you in so many ways it would be a fools errand to try to guess how this one will turn out. That being said, the SOBs are going to give it a shot!

NFL Conference Championship Preview

Tom Brady is a win away from making an
unprecedented sixth Super Bowl start. (Getty)

It's Conference Championship time, and the OXen will be watching the games together at Austen's NYC apartment.  That will be glorious for one and miserable for the other, as the Patriots will either win to bring out Stally's inner-New England arrogance, or they will lose and make for a long, gloomy evening in a cold, wet, foggy New York.

What's more: the two don't even agree on which team will win that game.  Here's a look at the picks for the Conference Championships:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Indianapolis

Stally: It's far too late to bail on my favorite team now!

The Patriots have been dominant at home this season.  They've also owned Andrew Luck and the Colts since the star QB broke into the league, having beat them by at least 20 points in three meetings over the last three years, including last year's playoffs and in Indianapolis in November.

With that said, you'd think there's a time that the talented young QB will breakthrough against the mastermind of Bill Belichick, but it's a lot of points to make up.  There's a difference between playing better and playing well enough to reverse a series of three-touchdown losses into a win.

The key for Indy, however, will actually be the defense.  In the three recent losses to the Patriots, the Colts have given up at least 42 points in each of the games.  That won't cut it.  Tom Brady and the offense is too dialed in right now to expect that Indy's defense can keep this game competitive.

Score Prediction: New England 35, Indianapolis 24

NFL Divisional Round Preview

There are three quarterbacks left in the playoffs that are
still on their rookie contracts. How will they fair?

I simply cannot remember the last time I was this excited for a week of football (probably since the Jets were in the playoffs). There are great matchups all over the field in all of these games, but just looking at the quarterback battles should make the most average football fan excited.

Tom Brady and Joe Flacco have each defeated each other in the playoffs numerous times. They each lead teams with completely different styles, yet they always leave us with an exciting game till the end.

Cam Newton and Russell Wilson are both grouped in as the new age of "running quarterbacks," but these two guys could not be more different. Newton uses his size and athleticism to make plays, while Wilson uses his football IQ to dissect defenses with his arm and his legs. This will be a very telling game to see the progress of these two young quarterbacks.

While Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo are on the wrong side of 30, they are both playing the best football of their careers. Rodgers gets plenty of attention (which is very well deserved), but Romo has been a huge reason this team is still in the playoffs despite many expecting the Cowboys to be one of the worst teams in the NFL (I always admit when I am wrong).

The game in Denver show cases the new vs. the old. Andrew Luck was spectacular this year, but the Colts simply have not been able to put away the better teams in the league. Peyton Manning seemingly has lost a step a bit towards the end of the season, but he still has more than enough left in the tank to rip apart any defense in the league. This is a defining game for both of these quarterbacks, for very different reasons.

Basically, I'm saying watch carefully this week because I do not know when you will see this many great quarterbacks facing off against each other again in one weekend. Here is how we see the game playing out.

NFL Wild Card Preview

"Kiss this, if you don't like Tony Romo." (Getty)

It's playoff time Stubborn OXen fans.  As is customary in the Wild Card Round, neither of our teams are playing.  The Patriots because they have their traditional bye week viewing party.  And the Jets because they have their traditional year-end golf outing.

However, there are still four games on the schedule.  While we agree on all four, I think we both also think that the games could go either way in anyone of them.  In fact, after our phone conversation about the picks, we both agreed that we knew we were going to miss something on one of these games.  Not all four will go according to plan.

Nonetheless, here's who we have in the Wild Card Round this weekend:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Dallas over Detroit

Stally: The Cowboys are the best team not to have earned a bye in the Wild Card Round.  Which is a pretty blunt statement considering that five teams went 12-4, including Dallas, and the other four are on bye this week.  They played great on the road, going 8-0, but struggled with a 4-4 record at home. That seems to be an odd statistic, so odd, in fact, that I don't think it holds too much merit as a reason why Dallas should be worried.

In the case of Detroit, it's not particularly strong on the road, having gone only 4-4 itself.  The biggest issue, as Austen will get into, is the quarterback differential.  I've long been of the mindset that Tony Romo is a very strong quarterback that gets a bad rap based on poor luck.  Having relied on Matthew Stafford in fantasy football this year, and having had his poor performance tank my season, I don't hold him in the same regard as I do Romo.  Then again, Detroit is a classless bunch of goons, so I don't hold any of them in high regard.  The lack of a suspension of DT Ndamukong Suh after trying to break Aaron Rodgers ankle last week is offensive to competitive sport.

Score Prediction
Dallas 34, Detroit 17