Sunday, December 29, 2013

Week 17: Playoffs? You Kidding Me?

This might be the only scenario in which the
Bills knock off the Patriots in Foxboro.
As always, the NFL season has flown past us. It is hard to get too sad considering the best part of the season is upon us, the playoff!

I cannot remember the last time so many playoff spots were up in the air. The only team that is locked into their seeding is the Chiefs, getting the 5th seed in the AFC. Two of the games this week will decide who will win the division and who will be sitting at home next week. The Seahawks could still fall from the #1 seed to the 5th seed. In fact, every division in the NFC is on the line this week.

It should be a great day of football (every game this week will be played today) and just like every week, it should be a crazy ride. Here is how the SOBs think the games will shake out.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Buffalo

Austen: If the Broncos falter in Oakland, this win could give the Patriots the number one seed. Not bad for a highly mediocre team. Either way, the Pats will try their best to win this and when is the last time the Bills beat the Pats in New England? The 90s? I'll stick with the Pats.

Stally: There aren't many guarantees in life, but among them: death, taxes and Tom Brady beating the Bills.  He's 21-2 lifetime against them.

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Week 16: Bye Weeks or Bye, Bye

Tony Romo didn't give up five touchdowns
in the second half, his defense did. (Getty)
Stally: There's a lot on the line this week.  Some teams are looking for a first-round bye, some for the division, some are hoping to hold onto Wild Card positions, some are looking for help to get into the playoffs, and many are just out.

I'll throw Austen under the bus and explain that I typed up my picks early Saturday afternoon and didn't get to respond to his until he was done at about 25 minutes before kickoff, so we're under a time crunch to get this out before the games.  We didn't quite make it, so let's just go.

Here's who we got:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
New England over @Baltimore

Stally: This is an F-You pick toward an organization that I don't respect and a team that I don't think is any good.  It's a joke that the Ravens are in position to make the final playoff spot in the AFC and reflects just how bad the conference has been this season.  They only have two wins against teams with winning records, they beat Miami by three and Cincinnati in overtime.  They're lucky Justin Tucker can kick, because they needed all six of his field goals to sneak by the Lions last week.

Austen: Actually, the Ravens are still very alive in the race for the AFC North thanks to Cincinnati's mediocrity. The two teams play each other in Week 17, which very well might decide the division. I have the Patriots in this one, but I really don't like the pick and think there is a very good chance the Ravens come out on top, especially since they are at home. The Ravens might not be very good, but who is right now in the AFC? The Chiefs might be the second-best team, and they probably are one and done in the playoffs. The AFC is a mess right now.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Week 15: A Lot To Be Decided

In a season that's proven to be unpredictable, the
win-by-the-seat-of-their-pants Patriots are somehow
in a position to jump atop the AFC. (Getty)
There are three weeks left in the NFL season, and we're no closer to drawing a playoff picture than we were three weeks ago.  Well, maybe we're a little closer.

Seattle, Denver and Indianapolis have all clinched a spot, while New England, New Orleans and Kansas City appear close.  However, after that, the picture gets murky quickly.

In the AFC North, the Bengals are closing in on the division, but a loss to Pittsburgh today would gum up the works. Meanwhile, the AFC's final playoff spot is completely up in the air with four teams at 7-6 or 6-7 entering the week, and only one spot available.

In the NFC, the divisions are more up for grabs, as Philadelphia leads Dallas by a game in the East and Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay are all within half a game in the North.  It's also worth noting that at 8-5 and having beaten 9-4 Carolina, the Arizona Cardinals are very much in the hunt.

Some of the question marks will get crossed out by some crucial outcomes in Week 15; others will get carried into next week.  Here's who the OXen have this week:

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Week 14: Fantasy Playoffs Start

Remember when Peyton Manning almost went to the Titans? This
week he will be tearing them up, just like he did in Indy for years.
It's a big week for the Stubborn OXen as the fantasy football playoffs begin!

The two of us play in three leagues together, including a prestigious keeper league.  This will be the first time we've met in the playoffs of that league since Austen joined in 2011.

Austen has won the championship both seasons he's played, but his team has been having a down year.  He enters the playoffs at 7-6 as the fourth seed.  Meanwhile, Stally completely blew up his team after a 1-5 start and had an impressive second half, ending at 6-7 as the fifth seed.  He's made it to five championships in the eight-year history of the league, but none since Austen joined.

Elsewhere, Stally snuck into the Theta Chi playoffs as the sixth seed at 6-7, while Austen missed with a 5-8 record (eighth seed).  Conversely, Austen will try to lock up the top seed in the nicknamed "NYC League" in the final week of the regular season, while Stally will play in a win-or-go-home game as the fourth vs. fifth seed (it's a four-team playoff).

Oh yeah, and for all this to happen, there needs to be some real football played.  That's going to be hard to predict this week, but we'll do our best.

Sunday, December 1, 2013

Week 13: The AFC Stinks

While it might have been close, Thursday night's game only
proved that it's most definitely a down year in the AFC. (Getty)
It's official.  The AFC is a terrible conference this season.

Already in the books, the now-6-6 Ravens beat the now-5-7 Steelers on Thanksgiving.  And, on Sunday afternoon, the 5-6 Dolphins and 5-6 Jets will kickoff.  It's sad that one of these teams will likely emerge as a playoff candidate in the near future, despite none of them looking like they're even worthy of finishing at 8-8 this season.

Also on the line, the 7-4 Bengals head to 5-6 San Diego and the 5-6 Titans go to 7-4 Indianapolis.  Neither Cincy nor Indy has looked dominant, and wins for the underdogs would leap frog them into the 6-6 jumble of sixth seed mediocrity in the AFC.  All in all, it's pretty bad.

Here's who the Stubborn OXen have emerging from what is quickly turning into a stinky pile of dung:

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Week 12: All Over Underdogs

With highs in the 20s and winds in the 30s, it's going to be a
cold meeting between two of the best QBs in history. (Getty)
This is a tough week to pick teams, we both agree on that.  In the world of gambling, it's generally considered that the home team is gifted three points on the spread, just for being at home.  This means that if a home team is favored by three points, it would be considered a completely even matchup on a neutral field.

This week, there are four home teams favored by less than three points.  What does this mean?  It means Las Vegas is expecting them to win, but doesn't actually consider them to be the better team.  That makes it difficult for us to make predictions for the winner, because we can either go with the home team or the better team.

Here's who we went with:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
New Orleans over @Atlanta

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Week 11: Start Drawing The Playoff Canvas

Adrian Peterson needs to have a huge day just for
the Vikings to stay in this game in Seattle. (Getty)


Another great week of football coming your way! This week is loaded up with evenly matched teams, which is great for fans, but rough on us SOBs.

With over half the season over already (I still cannot believe that), teams are starting to look at what they need to do in order to get themselves into the playoffs. Will the elite teams stumble? Who is going to take that last Wild Card spot in the AFC? Only time will tell, but here is how we think this week will play out:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Seattle over Minnesota

Austen: I'm still riding high on the Seattle bandwagon. They are still the best team in the league and Minnesota is one of the worst.

Stally: You don't have to be riding high on the Seattle bandwagon to know that this is the lopsided matchup of the week.  It's the only real easy pick of the week.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Week 10: No-Huddle Offense

Andrew Luck has the Colts running high atop the AFC South. (Getty)
We're both vacationing together in California and are typing this on Rob Lange's iPad about 30 minutes before Sunday kickoff. This week, we will be typing short thoughts as we pass the computer back and forth.  Let's get after it:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over St. Louis

Stally: There's the potential for a lot of upsets this week, but I feel safe saying this isn't one 'em.

Austen: This seems like a reach for a top pick. I don't disagree with the pick, just think the Rams are better than Stally thinks. Kellen Clemens is playing solid football.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Week 9: All In Agreement Say "Aye"

Just when we thought Thursday Night Football couldn't get
any uglier, an overtime game was decided by a safety. (AP)
Austen: Aye.

Stally: Aye.

In the three-year history of the blog, the two of us have never agreed more on the outcomes that with this coming weekend's NFL games.  It wasn't until the final of 13 games picked that we disagreed on the predicted winner of a game.  Let's be honest, at that point, it's really just a coin flip anyway.

The bad news is that we've both already missed on the Thursday night game, so despite a lot of concurrence, we clearly aren't omnipotent.

Ok, enough with the big words, let's talk football.  Here's who we have this week:

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Week 8: Six Blowouts, Six Byes

The Jaguars play a home game in London this weekend.
That makes sense considering the English are more
accepting of shutout football games. (Getty)
Austen goes back to movie production at something crazy like 4 a.m. on Sunday, and Stally is golfing on Cape Cod all weekend.  Needless to say, neither OXen will likely be able to watch many of these games.

The slate starts off with a lot of expected blowouts (the first six could go in any order) and with six teams on bye, the close games will be fewer and farther between.  Here's who the Stubborn OXen are taking:

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@New Orleans over Buffalo

Stally: The Saints at home, coming off a bye, and playing the Bills.  Seriously, what's not to like!?

Austen: I have this game much lower, but it is hard to argue with taking the Saints coming off a bye against one of the worst teams in the league, who are still starting a quarterback from Duke. This has to be some sort of record for a Duke quarterback.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Week 7: Rivalry Week

Stally got Jordan Cameron from Austen when
conducting a firesale of his team.  Now Austen
will have to play against the TE. (Getty)
Hey, it's Stally, and it's rivalry week!

Austen and I play each other in our premiere, keeper fantasy football league.  We play each year in what is officially labeled as "Rivalry Week."  This year, our teams are struggling.  We were both favored after great 2012 seasons, but Austen is 3-3 and I'm a miserable 1-5 and have already imploded the team to bring in players like Adrian Peterson, Julio Jones and Giovanni Bernard in preparation for next year.

In real world news, the Patriots play the Jets and USC lost pathetically, 14-10, to Notre Dame.  The Trojans trailed by the same score at halftime and couldn't muster up the ability to score any second half points.

Here's who we're taking in Week 7 of the NFL season:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
New England over @New York Jets

Austen: The Patriots have been pretty mediocre so far this season, but the Jets have been far from good. It does not help that New York is more banged up than they have been in years. After just a terrible game against the Steelers, who are legitimately one of the worst teams in the league this year, I cannot see my Jets bouncing back to win this one.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Is the Falcons Super Bowl window closed?

STALLY'S EDITOR'S NOTE: Longtime hockey friend Mark Fuery approached me about a piece he wrote on the Atlanta Falcons struggles.  He was looking for a spot to post it where it might get some traction.  We've had other guest pieces in the past, so I told Mark to go ahead and post.  Thanks, Mark!

--


Sub-par linebackers leave a Falcons Super Bowl just out of reach (AP/John Bazemore)

January 20, 2013: The Atlanta Falcons lead the San Francisco 49ers 10-0 in the second quarter of the NFC Championship game. Matt Ryan drops back to pass, looks to his left, and places the ball right over a defender and into Julio Jones' hands in the back of the end zone. Jones performs his best ballerina impression by tapping his feet before falling out of bounds with the ball. Touchdown! The Falcons now have a commanding 17-0 lead and look to finally be heading back to the Super Bowl after a 14-year drought.

Then the collapse happened.

San Francisco fought their way back to take the lead early in the fourth quarter. The Falcons had the ball in the game's final minutes with one last shot to take what seemed certain only an hour earlier.

But it wasn't meant to be. Ryan's second last pass of the season fell incomplete and the season ended in playoff disappointment yet again.

With the devastating end to the 2012 season in the rear view, the Falcons came into the new year with one goal in mind; "Super Bowl or bust," according to wide receiver Roddy White as stated on ESPN First Take last April.

And that's the way it should be with a team that has been, pardon the cliche, knocking on the door. This had to be the year.

Then it all went wrong. Starting right tackle Mike Johnson went down with a season ending injury in camp, before even a preseason snap was taken. Then White suffered a high ankle sprain in a preseason game on Aug. 15. The trend was already starting.

Early in the season, the Falcons lost more key players on both sides of the ball, including defensive end Kroy Biermann, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, running back Steven Jackson and fullback Bradie Ewing; to name a few. And just for good measure, Jones was also playing at less than 100 percent.

So what does that get you? A 1-4 record, an embarrassing loss at home to the New York Jets, and what looks like a lost season.

Then on Wednesday it gets even worse, if that's possible. Jones, who was Ryan's only consistent weapon on offense, needs surgery on an injured foot and will miss the rest of the season, according to various sources.

So what does this mean for the Falcons? Can they recover? Can they grind it out and sneak into a playoff spot? They still have that championship window. After all, they have a star quarterback in his prime, a future Hall of Fame tight end and a much needed bye week to heal some of the less-severe injuries.

Don't fool yourself. That isn't enough. This is a lost season.

The injuries, though unfortunate, aren't what did this team in. Sure, it may be difference between making or missing the playoffs, but it wasn't a championship team to begin with. That window is closed.

The problem with this team comes with how it was built. It is a prototypical regular season "dome team." They can air it out with the best of them, they can put up points in bunches, and they can run anyone out of their dome. Great! That and a dollar gets you a candy bar (maybe?).

What happens when this team needs to buckle down and hold a lead, like they did back in January? They fold! Every time, almost like clockwork.

The problem is the defense, it always has been. And that is a talent issue, which is a direct result of poor team building.

There are holes at every level on this defense. Look at the defensive line. You have a star in the middle in Jonathan Babineaux and an older, but still effective, Osi Umenyiora on the edge. Then what? A bunch of inconsistent JAGs.

That alone won't spell doom, so long as the rest of the team can pick them up and solidify the other two levels. But that doesn't happen in Atlanta.

The next level, the linebackers, is the most glaring hole on the defense, and it has been for years. After Weatherspoon what do you really have? Stephen Nicholas, a fringe starter at best? Akeem Dent, a third-round pick who lacks ideal middle linebacker speed and doesn't seem to have that "nose for the ball?" Two undrafted rookie free agents who may be solid players in the future, but right now are special teamers at best? The linebacker position is a complete disaster.

This isn't a new problem. The team never replaced Curtis Lofton when he signed with the Saints before last season. And even with Lofton, they seemed content with Nicholas manning the outside. Ever wonder why this team always seems to get gashed in the middle of the field? This is exactly why.

It's more than just a fluky year, or a transition period at the position. It's a trend; a willful ignorance and outright refusal to fix a glaring weakness on your team. Honestly, did anyone really think Lofa Tatupu was a viable solution after Lofton? Of course not.

What it comes down to is an unexplainable loyalty and satisfaction with some of the average parts of this team. And perhaps one other issue...

The Falcons have built this team in a way that leaves so little margin of error. They sank big money into a few star players. They weren't wrong to do so, since you need to keep the stars you get, but this team was built from the outside and expected to win a championship in a game that is still won in the trenches.

Their five biggest cap hits this year, according to spotrac.com, are their franchise quarterback, a wide receiver (White), a guard (Justin Blalock), an oft-injured corner (Asante Samuel) and an aging tight end (Gonzalez). All are great assets, but it's not a championship group.

In the salary cap era, there needs to be a better allocation of resources. In the next group of cap hits they have more outside players like Jones and William Moore mixed with older free agent signings like Umenyiora and Jackson.

In theory, this can work, but there needs to be a bigger degree of luck involved. First off, the older guys need to stay healthy. Then they need to hit on their draft picks and get inexpensive impact players to fill the gaps left by the flashy, expensive players. The Falcons had no such luck, especially this year.

What they got instead of a constant Super Bowl contender is a "fools gold" run. Much like the New England Patriots of the 90s. They could win in the regular season, get into the playoffs, and in some years go on a nice mini-run. But they didn't have the horses. That's what is happening in Atlanta.

Is the window closed? The more appropriate question is "Was it ever open?"

It wasn't open for those Patriots teams, but we all know what happened just a few short years after once they were able to fill their holes and get their franchise quarterback.

Need more good news for Falcons fans? That quarterback is there, they just need a shake-up to fill the holes.

All salary cap information cited in this article can be found at: http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/

Sunday, October 13, 2013

Week 6: Who Are These Teams?

Peyton Manning's least favorite thing about being on the Broncos
is that he does not get to play the Jags twice a year anymore.
With basically one third of the season over already, there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding a lot of the teams this year. The Patriots do not look themselves, being significantly better on defense than on offense. The Falcons have already lost more games than all of last season, and now are down arguably their best player. The Texans continue to be miraculously bad. So who are the actual good teams this season? Your guess is as good as mine.

While a lot of these games seem to be mismatches on paper, I could still see a lot of upsets this week due to the astonishing parity in the league right now. This week will be very telling on how the rest of this season will shake out for a lot of these teams.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy what should be another great week in the NFL!

Sunday, October 6, 2013

Week 5: Austen's Bye Week

Not even my run in with a Jets cheerleader could
draw Austen away from his work. (NYJets.com)
Hey, it's Stally.  Don't try to get in touch with Austen.  He's working about 16 hours a day/7 days a week and not only does he not have time to write the blog, he barely even got around to making his picks (at 1 a.m on Sunday morning).

Here's a gauge of just how busy he is: I texted him a picture to show that Ashley Gray was in Victory Lane at New Hampshire Motor Speedway when her dad finished second in a legends car race, and he didn't even have time to respond to my text.

Don't feel bad if you don't know who Ashley is by name.  Just feel bad for Austen that a Jets cheerleader can't even draw his attention away from a work.

Without his assistance, I'll take a look at our picks and explain why we may or may not disagree:


Sunday, September 29, 2013

Week 4: On the Road Again

In Denver's high altitude, Chip Kelly might need to slow
down his offense or else he might see his star players pass out.

Week 4 is here and ready to go! I cannot believe it has only been three weeks of football so far. So much has happened already. Terrelle Pryor is the face of a franchise, Josh Freeman is all but out of Tampa Bay, and Chip Kelly's offense has already been figured out by NFL defenses.

This week is filled with evenly matched teams. The good teams are all playing each other, while the struggling teams matchup against one another in hopes of keeping their seasons alive. This makes our job harder predicting games, but it should lead to some exciting fourth quarters this week, which is sorely needed after last week's round of epic beatdowns (I'm looking at you Giants).

Here's what we've got for you this week:

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Week 3: Mismatch City

SPOILER ALERT: The Seahawks-Jags game is the mismatch
of the week, something both SOBs can agree upon.
Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL! One week after Stally and I disagreed on more games than every, we are back to being pretty much on the same track with this week's matchups.

This week might have a lot of mismatches talent-wise, but never underestimate what a team will do to avoid going 0-3. We have two matchups with 0-2 teams, Giants-Panthers and Vikings-Browns, so look to see some desperation plays coming in those games. The Bucs and Steelers are both teams with playoff aspirations, yet they will have an uphill battle to avoid the 0-3 start against two undefeated teams (the Patriots and the Bears respectively).

Either way, it is always exciting, so sit down, relax and enjoy the games..... and our analysis.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Week 2: Readjusting Expectations

The Eagles offense took flight in Week 1. (Getty)

Week 1 Recap


We'll try to keep score as we go this year.  There wasn't a whole lot that we learned in Week 1.  It seemed like maybe the OXen were off on the NFC South, as Stally missed on his pick of Atlanta over New Orleans and Austen completely botched the Bucs over the Jets (his six point pick).

It's also likely that the football power has shifted sides in Pennsylvania.  Austen missed on a pick for Pittsburgh and a pick against Philadelphia.  The teams looked opposite of how they did last year with the Eagles looking like they could be in contention, and the Steelers looking like they might just stink.

On the week, Austen's missed picks cost him dearly as he gave Stally three upset wins worth 15 points, and Stally won the week 51-26.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Week 1: The Season Kicks Off

CJ Spiller will need to run for about 250 yards for the Bills
to have a chance against the Patriots. (Sports Illustrated)
We just finished posting our season picks, so there's not a whole lot of banter to cover that wasn't in there.

In general, Week One poses to be a difficult one to predict as we're not quite sure where all these teams stand, and many of the games take place between teams that were similarly matched in 2012.

For those new to the system: we divy up the games based on confidence.  We start with an important eight points and move our way down to the lesser confidence by ending with just a single point.  Whomever earns the most points wins the week and the key is that whichever games you pick wrong, the other OXen collects the points.


Austen's Eight-Point Pick
New England over @Buffalo

Austen: Pats good, Bills bad --- so says caveman Austen.

Stally: This was clearly the easiest pick of the week.

The Stubborn OXen Kick Off Season 3

In an effort to stick with tradition, the New England
Patriots go first again! (Washington Post)
Hi Fans,

It's Stally, and Austen and I are ready to kickoff Season 3 of the Stubborn OXen blog.  The two of us haven't been very good at keeping score, but I can only assume that I've won both seasons.  (It must be that Patriots dominate Jets confidence.)  We have made a commitment to try and score the past two seasons when we take a week long vacation together to visit some fellow OXen in California and attend a few of our alma mater's games (which they probably won't win).

Austen and I did our season draft over the phone on Thursday night.  It being Season 3 with both of us having had first overall picks the past two seasons, we decided to go with a coin flip, especially since we honestly can't really project who won last year (it had become apparent late in Season 1 that I had won, even once we stopped keeping score).

Being single, I selected "tails" on the coin flip.  "I could use some tail," I joked with Austen in frat boy fashion.  Winner!  I select first.

Enjoy the season!
Stally (and Austen)

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

2013 NFL Mock Draft


 Less than 24 hours away and I have finally completed my mock draft. I’ve tinkering with this for about a week now, and the Jet’s acquisition of the 13th overall pick threw a bit of a kink in the situation, but here it is. Enjoy!

Andy Reid has the first overall pick and he only drafts
players who weigh more than him in the first round.
That only leaves a few players on his draft board.
1. Kansas City: OT Luke Joeckel Texas A&M
There is a good chance Eric Fisher goes here, but I am siding with the more ready to start prospect, especially since the Chiefs are likely to trade their current left tackle, Branden Albert. Andy Reid pretty much never takes anything besides offensive and defensive lineman in the first round, so that basically makes this pick a competition between Joeckel, Fisher, and Sharrif Floyd.

2. Jacksonville: DT Sharrif Floyd Florida
There is a lot of speculation that this pick will either be used on Geno Smith or Dion Jordan. I will rule out Smith right away simply because I do not think that they are ready to give up on Blaine Gabbert, although they really should. Jordan is an extremely talented player, but I have a hard time figuring out how he would fit in a 4-3 defense. I think he will end up being mostly looked at as a 3-4 outside linebacker. Floyd on the other hand is one of the most dominant interior lineman we have seen in the last few years. The Jags lost Terrance Knighton to the Broncos, who has been a solid starter for the last four seasons, so DT is a clear need for this team.

3. Oakland: CB Dee Milliner Alabama
Did the Raiders sign both Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins in free agency? Yes. Does that really solve their issues in their defensive backfield? No. Porter and Jenkins are both marginal starters at best. The Raiders will have to line up against Peyton Manning twice a year with his new trio of dangerous receivers. This might be a bit of a reach for Milliner, but the guy has size, speed, and incredible college productivity while playing for Alabama, which is basically a NFL minor league team. With every team in the league looking for a guy like this, I really don’t believe that he is too much of a reach here, although the Raiders will push hard to get out of this pick.

4. Philadelphia: OT Eric Fisher Central Michigan
The Eagles’ offensive line was atrocious last season. They need upgrades at almost every position. With Chip Kelly’s high octane offensive coming to town, he needs offensive lineman in great physically shape. Fisher is the most athletic offensive lineman in this draft so this is all around a perfect fit. Look for teams to try to trade up with the Raiders to grab Fisher before the Eagles get him.

5. Detriot: DE Ezekiel Ansah BYU
If this is how the draft falls, the Lions will look to get out of this pick. They are praying that either Milliner or Fisher fall to them, both of whom would fill huge needs for them. If they get stuck with this pick, I see them taking the most intriguing edge rusher in this draft. Ansah has very little football experience, but his potential is off the charts. In a draft with so few clear all stars, Ansah will fly up the draft boards. 

Monday, April 22, 2013

Darrelle Revis: A Buc Killer

The Bucs have landed another playmaker in the back end of
their defense, but is Darrelle Revis worth his new contract?

The Bucs may have managed to give up less than the Jets wanted to acquire Revis, but it is his new hefty contract that could cause a lot of headaches in years to come. People will say that this is a great contract for the Bucs, but I think otherwise. Paying $16 million dollars a year for a corner back is ludicrous. Even if Revis is back to 100%, this is too much money for any defensive player. The NFL is a league in which you need a quarterback to win, and since winning quarterbacks cost around $17-20 million to retain, that does not leave much money for the other 52 players on the roster.

I strongly believe that Revis is the most dominant defensive player in the league, but with the majority of teams running some form of the spread offense, shutting down one offensive player does not have the effect that it used to. Teams will still be able to throw away from Revis, like they did for years playing against a once dominant Nnamdi Asomugha in Oakland.

Technically, there is no guaranteed money in Revis’ new contract, but since the Bucs gave up two high picks for him, there is almost no situation in which he is not on the team for the next two seasons, even if he is plagued by injuries and/or inconsistency. In that case, there is almost an assumed guaranteed $32 million. After those first two years, the Bucs will then still be paying a 30 year old player $16 million a season if they want him to stay on the team. 

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Valentine's Day: NFL Style

With a ton of high priced free agents about to hit the open market, I thought it would be fun to try to pair these guys with some intriguing suitors for a Valentine's Day special. Here goes nothing.

Mike Wallace sprints to the Panthers, giving Cam Newton a long term answer at wide receiver:
Maybe this is just me dreaming of fantasy football season already, but this is the type of move that the Panthers need to make to help Newton develop. As I've said all along, they made a huge mistake by trying to surround him with as many high priced running backs as possible when the NFL has transformed into a pass happy league, and it has really hurt the entire team. Steve Smith has been clamoring for the Panthers to add other receiver for about half a decade, now it is time that they do so.

Greg Jennings pulls a Brett Favre and jumps town for the Vikings and some payback:
With Percy Harvin all but gone, the Vikings biggest weakness is about to get even bigger. Adding Jennings would give the Vikings a savvy veteran to help a group of young receivers. Christian Ponder really struggled without Harvin the second half of the season and he would certainly go gaga for Jennings. This could become a couple that the Packers fear for years to come.

Wes Welker stays with his Brady-boy:
Has there been a more productive couple over the last six seasons? Not even close. Welker is not 100 catch guy on any other team. Tom Brady would not be nearly as productive without this guy being about as reliable as they come. He has gotten a lot of flack for dropping passes over the last few years, but he is still one of the best in the business and he deserves to be paid like one. Despite my hatred of the Patriots, it would be a shame to see these two apart for the end of their careers.

Reggie Bush might be the Packers missing piece to get back to the Super Bowl:
As bad as the Packers defense has been over the last two seasons, the run game has been equally horrendous. They have not had a legit rushing threat since Ryan Grant was in his prime. Just imagine how dangerous Aaron Rodgers could be if he could check down to a guy like Bush. These two could be scary good together.

Dwight Freeney and Chandler Jones would be the best pass rushing duo in the NFL:
This combo would once again make the Patriots the favorite to win the Super Bowl. This is a move that just makes too much sense to not happen. Freeney is an undervalued asset after a couple of rough years, and Bill Belichick loves a good deal.




Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Is Joe Flacco Elite?

Joe Flacco got rid of his moronic mustache and
then won a Super Bowl. Coincident, I think not.
The short answer, no. Now here is the long answer.

This will be a question that rages on all offseason long. With Flacco's contract up, he will certain want to be paid like he is elite after one of the most impressive runs by a quarterback in playoff history. However, I do not think it would be wise for any team to pay him with the likes of Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, and I truly doubt the Ravens will make that mistake.

The conversation on Flacco's worth might rage on for another year or more because it is likely that the two sides do not find any common ground in their contract negotiations and Flacco gets the Franchise Tag for one more season before he is handed the elite money he desires.

Back to the question at hand. Let's start with what it means to be an elite quarterback. To be an elite quarterback, you must be the unquestioned leader of your team, you must be able to win by putting your team on your back, and you must make the players around you better. Has Flacco done all of that through the last four playoffs games? Absolutely. However, to be considered elite, you must do all of those things consistently. Four games, no matter how important those four games are, should not quiet the questions about Flacco's wild inconsistencies that he has shown throughout his career.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

The Harbaul Prediction

John and Jim Harbaugh are the first siblings to
ever face off against each other in a Super Bowl.
In case you haven't heard, the two Harbuagh brothers, John and Jim (good luck keeping them straight) are coaching against one another in Super Bowl XLVII.  Then again, if you didn't know that, you aren't the type of person that would be reading a blog like this one, now would you?

For 20 weeks of football, the OXen have picked against one another.  However, with just one game and a mutual agreement on the winner (which is good for Austen, as he won't fall farther behind in a playoff in which he's 2-8 in Pick 'Em), it's unfair to force one guy to go with the other team.

Here are a few factors that we will try to predict to see who might have more insight on this game:

-Winning Team
-Score and Spread
-Game MVP

Sunday, January 20, 2013

A Weekend for Championships

The two best players of a generation on respective
sides of the ball will meet for one last time on Sunday.
Austen's Twelve-Point Pick - @New England over Baltimore

Austen: I really, really hope I am wrong. Having to watch the Pats go to yet another Super Bowl might be too much for me, unless they blow it for a third straight time in the big game. I do hate John Harbaugh, so this game is pretty lose-lose for me.

That being said, I still do not trust Joe Flacco. That long touchdown to send the game into overtime was a fluke. Ninety-nine percent of the time, that ball is being picked off and the Ravens' season ends. Rahim Moore made one of the worst defensive plays I have ever seen in the NFL, showing off all that he learned playing football at UCLA.

Tom Brady on the other hand, always takes care of business. He will be great. How his teammates play will be the factor in this game. Stevan Ridley could end up being the biggest factor in this game because the Ravens' run D is porous and there will be holes for the young running back. It should be a great game, but I cannot imagine a world in which Flacco out performs Brady on a big stage.

Score Prediction: New England 41, Baltimore 27

Saturday, January 12, 2013

The Battle for Divisional Pride

Aaron Rodgers will need to shake off a 49ers team
that beat his Packers in Week 1. (Getty)
Stally: Ciao, NFC East.  I said all year your division was weak, despite Austen's clamoring that the Giants played in one of the toughest divisions in football.  Well, we have seven of the eight divisions still represented as we look at the NFL's Divisional Playoff round, and the NFC East isn't among them.

Point: me.

The NFC West is the lone division with two teams remaining, which should make me feel a little better as a Patriots fan that New England went just 1-3 against it.  However, nothing is going to excuse the Week 2 loss to the hapless Cardinals, and if/when New England is stuck going to Denver next weekend, they have only themselves to blame, as that loss was the difference.

Speaking of New England, let's get to the picks:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @New England over Houston

Stally: New England rocked the Texans 42-14 at home on Dec. 10 during Monday Night Football.  However, I'm sure Bill Belichick won't let them forget an eerily similar situation from two years ago.  On MNF, Dec. 6, 2010, the Pats dismantled the Jets 45-3, but lost at home in the divisional round 28-21 a month later.  I don't see that happening again.  The Texans are better than that Jets team, to be honest.  However, they have not been clicking lately and have managed just two touchdowns in three games.  I still think the Texans peaked early and that New England generally comes around later in the season.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Wild Card Weekend

This is the most excited I have been in a long time over Wild Card Weekend. All of these teams are evenly matched. We have a divisional game, a game between a franchise and their old city (the Colts used to play in Baltimore), and a game featuring the two best rookie quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. 

All of these games should be nail biters until the end, and we have a chance at a whole bunch of upsets. Let's take a look at each of these games.



While Adrian Peterson deserves all the recognition he
receives, it might be the Packers' receiver Randall Cobb
who makes the difference in this rematch of last week's game.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Green Bay over Minnesota

Austen: The Vikings are a great story. Adrian Peterson is, in my mind, the unquestioned MVP of the league. However, this team does not have much outside of him and Jared Allen. This pass defense is still questionable to me because of the lack of playmakers on the back end. Injuries to Antoine Winfield and Christian Ponder could completely cripple this team. Adrian Peterson might need to run for 300 yards to match what Aaron Rodgers can do with all his receivers, who are all healthy for the first time since Week 4.


Score Prediction: Green Bay 31, Minnesota 20



Thursday, January 3, 2013

ACE's Regular Season Awards

The regular season is over. The playoffs are on the horizon. It is a great time of year for football fans, even if your team is out of it already (trust me, I should know as a Jets fan).

We had yet another spectacular season in which there were a lot of surprise teams making the playoffs. A lot of players out performed expectations, while even more were awful in spectacular fashion.

Here are my awards for the season:

It's official: No one can tackle Adrian Peterson. 
MVP/Offensive Player of the Year/Comeback Player of the Year: Vikings RB Adrian Peterson

Peterson deserves every award that he is eligible to win this season.

Raise your hand if you assumed the Vikings had no shot at making the playoffs after the injury to Percy Harvin. If I was in a room full of people instead of sitting on my couch alone, everyone around me would have their hands high up in the air.

Since Harvin's injury in Week 9, Peterson has rushed for an astonishing 1,322 yards for an average of over 165 yards per game to go along with eight touchdowns. To put that in context, only five running backs have more rushing yards than that all season. Frank Gore and Ray Rice have less yards than that all season and still made the Pro Bowl, with 1,214 and 1,143 respectively. This is by no means a normal year for Peterson.