 |
| The Broncos made Austen look smart with Thursday night's win. (AP) |
There will be a little disagreement near the end, but neither of us are predicting any outlandish upsets. Most of the opposing picks come in games that both of us identify as coin flips to begin with.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick - Denver over @Oakland
Austen: Well this worked out just fine. How predictable was that? Carson Palmer turned the ball over multiple times, Darren McFadden was explosive but inconsistent and once again got injured, and Peyton Manning threw for over 300 yards.
Stally: I had seven games that I marked down as more or less sure picks. This was near the bottom of that list, but I have little argument. My biggest hesitation was taking the Thursday night team on the road, but there was just too much disparity in talent. Can someone tell me why the mediocre-at-best Raiders have fired their head coaches after going 8-8 in each of the last two years? Do they enjoy trying to find a coach that can lead them back to 4-12 futility?
Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @Seattle over Arizona
Stally: The Seahawks are 5-0 at home and the Cardinals have lost eight in a row. The Ryan Lindley experiment is finally over for Arizona, but the fact they went with him for two and half games doesn't speak highly to the ability of John Skelton. A win is simply not in the Cards this weekend.
Austen: Russell Wilson has thrown more touchdown passes than any rookie quarterback this year (19), and yes that includes Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III (17 apiece). He also has only eight interceptions on the year. This guy is playing as well as any rookie quarterback the league has ever seen. He needs to be more consistent, but he probably will not need to do much against the Cardinals. They are terrible.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Green Bay over Detroit
Austen: The Packers at home will be a large favorite over basically every team in the league. The Lions have shown they are a subpar team at best this season. They love to blow leads. They cannot run the ball. Their defense is just terrible, once again. And now they have lost three of their top four receivers for the season (Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and Ryan Broyles). Stafford would have to have the game of his career to win this one.
Stally: Luckily, Stafford is throwing to Calvin Johnson, who makes that a possibility. Detroit has lost two heartbreakers in a row. Both were at home and both should have been wins. I don't think that translates into an upset here, but the Lions are a little better than 4-8.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @San Francisco over Miami
Stally: Now that the 49ers have moved on from the Rams, they can get back to playing good football. Miami proved they're not horrible by sticking in the game with a Patriots team that had been blowing everyone out, but there's a difference between being "not horrible" and winning at Candlestick.
Austen: Stally and I continue to agree. The only thing I have to add is that the cross country trip is always a killer, especially when you are the significantly worse team.
Austen's Six-Point Pick - @Tampa Bay over Philadelphia
Austen: Even if the Eagles are winning by over 20 points in the fourth quarter, they will find a way to lose the game. The Phillies have won a game more recently than the Eagles and I think the baseball season starts back up any day now. This team is closer to having no wins than being at .500.
Stally: And, the Phillies didn't even make the playoffs. Let's go back to the point about the Eagles winning by over 20 at some point, I can't possibly see that happening. They're terrible! I was bummed Austen took this game as I had it circled as my next choice.
Stally's Six-Point Pick - Atlanta over @Carolina
Stally: There is such a huge disparity in talent in this one and I can't see the Panthers beating the Falcons. Critics says that Atlanta hasn't played a tough schedule, but they're 11-1 thanks to the fact they've always taken care of business against the bad teams, like Carolina.
Austen: I think this is a trap game for the Falcons and by this time next week everyone will be questioning the Falcons' ability to make a true push in the playoffs despite their record. That being said, I still have the Falcons because they are clearly a huge favorite. I expect Cam Newton to have yet another huge performance, but it will be interesting to see if he can actually close out a game for his team.
Austen's Five-Point Pick - @Indianapolis over Tennessee
Austen: The Colts are way better at home than on the road, and they really are not that bad on the road either. They know they need to get to 10 wins in order to make the playoffs. With two games against the Texans left on the schedule, this is a must-win. Andrew Luck knows it, so his team knows it. This could really be a blowout, but knowing this team, it will probably be a last second touchdown that gives them the win.
Stally: Like you, I always hate going too far against the Titans because they're just a weird team. The Colts are clearly the favorites, I agree, but I'm glad you have this game.
Stally's Five-Point Pick - Chicago over @Minnesota
Stally: I was very confident in the first seven games and this is the first one in which I'm not willing to bet the farm. However, I'll still take a very complete Bears team that blasted the Vikings 28-10 just two weeks ago.
Austen: Percy Harvin is out for the season. That means 99% of the Vikings offense will come from Adrian Peterson. Can you name another skill player on this roster? Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson ... please! Christian Ponder would be lucky to complete 10 passes in this game.
Austen's Four-Point Pick - @Pittsburgh over San Diego
Austen: This is another game just like betting against the Eagles. The Chargers are incapable of winning games. Troy Polamalu is back and that makes a huge difference for the Steelers. Oh yeah, and despite a huge performance against the Ravens, Charlie Batch is being benched for this Ben something guy. Apparently he is pretty good.
Stally: I had this one next as well, because I was positive Big Ben would be back when we drafted on Wednesday. The Chargers couldn't close out a game at home when the other team ran a check-down on 4th and 29. They're not going to beat a healing Steelers team in Pittsburgh.
Stally's Four-Point Pick - @New England over Houston
Stally: This is a classic pick for me. When in doubt, take the Patriots. Houston's offense will cause a lot of problems against a weak New England defense, but the Pats have the offense to outpace the Texans, and they should be able to do that. A cold primetime game in the New England winter will definitely be an advantage as well.
Austen: To me this comes down to home field advantage. If this game was in Houston, I'd be taking the Texans. I stand by my belief that the Texans are the most complete team in the NFL, but it is almost impossible to beat Brady at home this time of year. I'm taking the Pats, but the Texans will give them more problems than any team they have played so far this year.
Austen's Three-Point Pick - @Cleveland over Kansas City
Austen: This is the fourth pick in a row where I have simply bet against a horrible team. The Chiefs played a very inspired game after a horrible tragedy, but that can only last so long. It also helped that they were playing at home against a weak Panthers team. The Browns have been tough on every team they have played this year, especially at home. This was the only game left where I really have true confidence in my pick.
Stally: Wow. We just keep picking in order. I agree. The Browns record isn't strong, but they've been competitive, unlike the Chiefs.
Stally's Three-Point Pick - @Washington over Baltimore
Stally: RG3! RG3! The Ravens are 15th in passing, 23rd in rushing, 23rd in passing against and, you guessed it, 23rd in rushing against. How a team that's in the bottom third in three of four stats and average in the fourth is 9-3, I don't know. Dumb luck, literally, like the kick they won on that wasn't inside the uprights against New England, seems to be the best explanation.
Austen: Stally, stop bringing that game up for the love of God! Either way, I've been saying all year the Ravens are an average team. It does not help that they are decimated by injuries. They just lost to Charlie Batch, so how do you think they will fare against RG3? Joe Flacco and Ray Rice will have to have their best games of the year in order to keep up with this guy.
Stally: I'll make you a promise. If the NFL extends the uprights so that kicks like that don't count just because they went three feet over a small portion of the pole, I'll stop bringing it up. It's a dumb rule, and I'm ok reminding everyone that it's still in the rulebook.
Austen's Two-Point Pick - @Cincinnati over Dallas
Austen: I still think the Bengals are going to sneak into the playoffs somehow. They are solid in every phase of the game and I've said it before and I'll say it again, their defensive line is one of the best in the league. No one pays any attention to them, but they are great and have a ton of depth. That will be a big problem for a very weak Cowboys' offensive line. Tony Romo could be in for a tough day, especially if Miles Austin is not 100% to take some pressure off of Dez Bryant.
Stally: I have Dallas with one confident point because I always have Dallas. I'd like to think the Bengals sneak into the playoffs, but I don't see it. Pittsburgh is finally healthy and Indianapolis is pretty darn good. Cincy needs to win this week, but I think the Cowboys are about to spoil Christmas.
Stally's Two-Point Pick - St. Louis over @Buffalo
Stally: For all the criticism, the Rams are a win away from being a .500 team. Jeff Fisher has quietly made this team believe it can compete in any game. The Buffalo weather could certainly be an issue, but the Rams are a tier above the Bills as a team, and I expect them to win this one.
Austen: This is the first game Stally and I really disagree on. The Rams typically do not travel well and the Buffalo cold is not something they will be used to. The Bills running game should be able to win this one for them. They only way the Rams win is if they get a defensive touchdown off of a Ryan Fitzpatrick mistake, which truthfully is not all that unlikely. That's why I stayed as far away from this game as long as possible.
Austen's One-Point Pick - New York Jets over @Jacksonville
Austen: No MJD, no Cecil Shorts. If they Jets cannot beat the Jags without their only two real offensive threats, I might have to stop watching football. This team knows Chad Henne well and he will not have the luxury of throwing to Brandon Marshall (his ex-Dolphin teammate) this time around. If the Jets run the ball 40 times, even if they only get two yards a carry, they will win this game.
Stally: This wasn't something I thought I'd say going into the season, but Cecil Shorts is the game changer here. He's been a shining light in the dark cave that is the Jacksonville Jaguars. I had the Jags with him, I have the Jets with him out, and he's officially out.
Stally's One-Point Pick - New Orleans over @New York Giants
Stally: New Orleans is running out of time to make the playoffs, but they're 5-3 since a miserable 0-4 start. The Giants, on the other hand, are 1-3 in their last four. The Saints certainly aren't the same team without Sean Payton, but, last week notwithstanding, they've started to resemble the team we've known in recent years. I like them to beat a stumbling Giants team.
Austen: The Saints horrendous defense is just what the doctor ordered for this offense to get its mojo back. The Giants have been warned by Tom Coughlin that they need to win out to get into the playoffs and that starts with this game. Both of these teams are coming off huge losses to divisional opponents, so this will be a fun game to watch.
No comments:
Post a Comment