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| It wouldn't be a Stubborn OXen blog, if we didn't gush over the return of RG3. |
The NFC, on the other hand, has five teams tied at 8-6 and there's not nearly enough space for all of them in January. It should create an exciting final two weeks, especially in the NFC East, where three teams are tied atop the standings, with little room for error.
In general, the OXen agreed on many of this week's games, although they again seem at odds when it comes to the New York teams. That, and Stally expected both 12-2 teams to begin to take the rest of the regular season off (and maybe the postseason, as well).
Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Green Bay over Tennessee
Austen: I had to watch the Titans last week attempt to hand the game to my hapless Jets. And that was in Tennessee. I simply cannot see a scenario in which the Titans win this game in Green Bay.
Stally: While I liked him at the University of Washington, I've never thought Jake Locker would make a great pro QB and he's done little to change my mind about that. At some point, the Titans are going to need to put their future in a different QB's hands.
Stally's Eight-Point Pick - New England over @Jacksonville
Stally: There's a clear 1A and 1B this week. I personally think this is the best bet, as the Patriots have the highest point differential in the NFL and the Jags have the second worst. At 2-12, there's very little chance that Jacksonville sticks around in this one.
Austen: I took the Packers over the Pats simply because the Pats were on the road. These two games are clearly the top two choices.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Houston over Minnesota
Austen: Just like the Jets being in the playoff hunt was a joke, so are the Vikings' playoff hopes. Adrian Peterson is this entire team. As good as he is, that's not a winning game plan for any team. The Texans are still one of the best teams in the league so I am very confident they handle the Vikings in Houston.
Stally: It's not at all fair to compare the Vikings to the Jets. The Jets were always a weird set of "ifs" away from making a run at a playoff spot. The Vikings are actually the six-seed in the NFC as of right now. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in football and while Minnesota is just 2-5 on the road, I'm expecting an upset of a Texans team that might have peaked early.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @Denver over Cleveland
Stally: Since starting 0-5, Cleveland has gone 5-4, with one of the losses coming in overtime. Perhaps if this game were in Ohio, the unappreciated Browns could put up a fight, but I don't see it happening in Denver. The Broncos have won nine straight and Peyton Manning has the team rolling. Expect the win streak to hit double digits.
Austen: The Browns are an ever improving team, so I would not count them out in any game, but knocking off Peyton Manning at home would be a huge upset.
Austen's Six-Point Pick - Atlanta over @Detroit
Austen: Well this game has already happened, and I chose right on this one. Stally took the Lions for some unknown reason. As usual, the Lions made enough mistakes to keep this game out of arms' reach, despite Calvin Johnson setting the record for receiving yards in a season. If the Falcons can find a way to run the ball in the playoffs, they might be the most dangerous team in the NFL come January.
Stally: Austen sent me an article telling me how the Lions were the biggest underachievers in the NFL to which I agreed. The Lions don't stink, they just underachieve. In their last three home games leading up to this one, they lost to the Packers, Texans and Colts, all playoff bound, by a total of nine points. I saw no reason why they couldn't beat a Falcons team that lost to the Panthers two weeks ago.
Stally's Six-Point Pick - Indianapolis over @Kansas City
Stally: According to the Wilson Hart Power Index, Indianapolis is ranked an ugly, and surprising, 27th in the NFL, but Kansas City is dead last. So, while the sabermetrics of football point to the Colts being vastly overrated, I have a hard time believing the playoff bound team will lose to this 2-12 disaster.
Austen: I've made this general point before but Brady Quinn is terrible. Add in an injured Dwayne Bowe and you get no offensive production. The Colts are not a great team, but when given the choice between Andrew Luck and Brady Quinn, let's just say I'm feeling Lucky.
Austen's Five-Point Pick - Washington over @Philadelphia
Austen: The last time these two teams met, RG3 threw for four touchdown passes. If anything, the Eagles have gotten worse since then. I'd take almost any team over the Eagles right now, no matter where the game is played.
Stally: In those rankings I just linked to, the Eagles are ranked 31st, just in front of the Chiefs. I agree that this is a mismatch and a healthy RG3 should bring out some early boo birds in Philadelphia. I just hope they don't go as far as to boo Santa Claus again.
Stally's Five-Point Pick - Chicago over @Arizona
Stally: Remember when the 7-1 Bears were running away from the Packers and considered the best team in the league? Well, things have changed. They're 8-6 and bundled with a whole bunch of other teams looking for the final Wild Card. Arizona might have blasted Detroit, but I doubt their anemic offense will do much against the Bears. This is what the doctor ordered for the floundering team from the Windy City.
Austen: The Bears might be in trouble in this matchup. Patrick Peterson is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and has the physical skills to shut down/limit Brandon Marshall. The Cardinals also have one of the best front sevens in the NFL, which will be a huge issue for the Bears' offensive line. This will be a very ugly game either way, so I want to stay away from this one.
Austen's Four-Point Pick - @Carolina over Oakland
Austen: The Raiders might be the worst team in the NFL right now, so going cross-country to play a team with one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the league right now is just too much for them to handle. The Panthers are not a good team, but I have a hard time seeing a game in which they lose to the Raiders.
Stally: The final spread on this game is nine points in favor of the Panthers. For those not familiar with spreads, that's a lot of points for any team to give to an opponent, let alone one that's 5-9. It speaks to just how bad and hopeless the Raiders are, but after firing their 8-8 coaches in each of the last two seasons, management has gotten what it deserves: double digit losses.
Stally's Four-Point Pick - @Miami over Buffalo
Stally: I actually articulated for Austen how it's not inconceivable for the Dolphins to make the playoffs. If the the Steelers beat the Bengals this week, and then lose to the Browns next week while the Bengals lose to the Ravens (all three outcomes of which have already happened in 2012), and the Dolphins win their two games, their in! This week should be an easier one for them then when they head to New England next weekend.
Austen: Ryan Tannehill is still too inconsistent to put much confidence in the Dolphins. With Daniel Thomas out, Reggie Bush will have to carry the load on offense, which could be an issue. The Dolphins should win, but these two teams are so erratic that I would not bet on either of them.
Austen's Three-Point Pick - @Tampa Bay over St. Louis
Austen: The Bucs have once again really hit a rough patch. However, the Rams at home are exactly what they need. As long as their defense does not allow more than 400 yards to Sam Bradford, they should be able to run away with this one. The Rams might be underrated, but the trip to Tampa is not an easy one.
Stally: Austen told me earlier this week that the Bucs are the better team, which isn't true. They're 6-8, while St. Louis is 6-7-1. I ultimately sided with Tampa Bay only because they're at home. In St. Louis, I would have gone with the Rams.
Stally's Three-Point Pick - @Dallas over New Orleans
Stally: The Cowboys are simply a better all around team than New Orleans. With the exception of the home win against the Falcons, the Saints haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season. The 'Boys are 8-6, so they should be the favorites.
Austen: For possibly the first time this season, Stally and I agree on the Cowboys. They have finally been playing solid football, something the Saints have yet to figure out this season. While the Saints have improved, they would need another big performance from their defense to be able to knock off the Boys.
Austen's Two-Point Pick - Cincinnati over @Pittsburgh
Austen: I've been saying the Bengals will make the playoffs somehow all season. Well they are officially at the point where they can lock up a Wild Card spot with one win. The Steelers are really not doing much well right now, so I have to side with Cincinnati in this one. If the Steelers cannot find a run game, they will be in for a long day.
Stally: The Bengals haven't beaten either the Steelers or Ravens since 2009, so I don't see that streak coming to an end at the three-river intersection in Pittsburgh. This is the time of year when the black-and-yellow pull out a game to make the postseason.
Stally's Two-Point Pick - @Seattle over San Francisco
Stally: The Seahawks are the only team with an unbeaten home record, which shouldn't be a surprise as their 12th Man truly gives them the best home field in football. If there's a team to end it, it would be the division rival 49ers, but I think this crowd will be a lot more than young stud QB Colin Kaepernick has ever had to deal with.
Austen: I like the Seahawks in this one as well, but it is hard for me to bet against the 49ers the way they are playing right now. They might be the most complete football team in the league right now.
Austen's One-Point Pick - New York Giants over @Baltimore
Austen: The Ravens, despite their record, are really not doing much to impress anyone right now. Joe Flacco is as mediocre as ever, and their defense has really struggled for the first time in over a decade. The Giants need this win to keep a tie atop their division.
Stally: Both these teams looked like garbage last week, to the point that CBS and FOX both turned them off of national coverage in the third quarters of their respective games. Before two recent hiccups, the Ravens had been dominant at home, so I'll take them against a team that got embarrassed 34-0 last week.
Stally's One-Point Pick - San Diego over @New York Jets
Stally: J-E-T-S, suck, Suck, SUCK! I don't understand why the Jets traded for Tim Tebow if they never wanted him to play. A poor carpenter blames his tools and in the spirit of Christmas, I think Jets fans should rewrite the lyrics to "Oh Tannenbaum, Oh Tannenbaum ... what the hell did you do?" The Chargers are pretty miserable, but they've actually done better on the road than at home, and I can't see the disgruntled Jets fans providing much of an advantage for their team.
Austen: I think the Jets steal this one the way they always do against the Chargers. I cannot remember the last time the Chargers beat the Jets. They just always seem to have their number. The quarterback change will really improve this offense more than people might realize. The Jets are far from being good, but so are the Chargers and Phillip Rivers.
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