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| Tom Brady feast on AFC East. (Getty) |
There aren't a whole lot of shoo-ins this week. My first three picks all seemed logical, but all three teams are on the road, and that always causes some pause. After going 12-2 in two of three weeks, I went a dismal 6-10 in an unsure week. Austen didn't fair too much better at just 8-8, and both of us understand this could be another rough week with a lot of question marks.
Stally's Eight-Point Pick - New England over @Miami
Stally: With so much uncertainty, I'll go back to the well. The Patriots have failed me very infrequently over the last decade-plus, so I'll go with them. They also never seem to lose late in the regular season and I think Austen has more of a statistic on that.
Austen: Since 2010, the Patriots are 19-0 in the second half of the season. In a league with so much parity, that is simply astonishing. This stat just shows you how incredible Bill Belichick is at making adjustments to his personel. The Dolphins shocked me last week by beating the Seahawks, but Seattle has only won one away game all season (against the hapless Carolina Panthers). The Fins have no shot in this one.
Stally: With so much uncertainty, I'll go back to the well. The Patriots have failed me very infrequently over the last decade-plus, so I'll go with them. They also never seem to lose late in the regular season and I think Austen has more of a statistic on that.
Austen: Since 2010, the Patriots are 19-0 in the second half of the season. In a league with so much parity, that is simply astonishing. This stat just shows you how incredible Bill Belichick is at making adjustments to his personel. The Dolphins shocked me last week by beating the Seahawks, but Seattle has only won one away game all season (against the hapless Carolina Panthers). The Fins have no shot in this one.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Green Bay over Minnesota
Austen: Greg Jennings is back which only makes this offense even more difficult to defend. I cannot remember Aaron Rodgers having two bad games in a row, so look for him to bounce back in an important divisional game after a stunning loss to the Giants.
Stally: The Packers got mopped up and poured down the drain in the Meadowlands last weekend. They're also just one game better than Minnesota (7-4 compared to 6-5). However, the Vikings looked miserable in a 28-10 road loss to Chicago last week, and I put this game in the same category, as it's a road trip to a strong division rival. Don't expect this one to be close.
Austen: Greg Jennings is back which only makes this offense even more difficult to defend. I cannot remember Aaron Rodgers having two bad games in a row, so look for him to bounce back in an important divisional game after a stunning loss to the Giants.
Stally: The Packers got mopped up and poured down the drain in the Meadowlands last weekend. They're also just one game better than Minnesota (7-4 compared to 6-5). However, the Vikings looked miserable in a 28-10 road loss to Chicago last week, and I put this game in the same category, as it's a road trip to a strong division rival. Don't expect this one to be close.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick - San Francisco over @St. Louis
Stally: The Rams tied the 49ers in San Francisco, so why I am I so confident with the game being in St. Louis? Because, I feel like the Niners are a much better team and won't make the same mistake twice. The rematch should be lopsided in the direction of the better team.
Austen: Stally and I continue to agree with the picks so far. The 49ers cannot let this one slip out of their hands and I would be shocked if they did not finish the season with a winning record against the Rams.
Stally: The Rams tied the 49ers in San Francisco, so why I am I so confident with the game being in St. Louis? Because, I feel like the Niners are a much better team and won't make the same mistake twice. The rematch should be lopsided in the direction of the better team.
Austen: Stally and I continue to agree with the picks so far. The 49ers cannot let this one slip out of their hands and I would be shocked if they did not finish the season with a winning record against the Rams.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Dallas over Philadelphia
Austen: The Eagles players have come out publicly to endorse Oregon's Chip Kelly to be their new head coach. Yo Eagles players, you know that there are still five games left this season and Andy Reid is still your coach? Obviously Reid is done and his players could not give a crap. This team is disinterested in even attempting to play football anymore. The Cowboys might railroad this team.
Stally: How disenfranchised is Austen with the Eagles? I've taken the Cowboys higher than him all year, and not even I think they deserve to go this high. I can't disagree with his logic, though. The Eagles are an embarrassment with no interest in even trying to win this game.
Austen: The Eagles players have come out publicly to endorse Oregon's Chip Kelly to be their new head coach. Yo Eagles players, you know that there are still five games left this season and Andy Reid is still your coach? Obviously Reid is done and his players could not give a crap. This team is disinterested in even attempting to play football anymore. The Cowboys might railroad this team.
Stally: How disenfranchised is Austen with the Eagles? I've taken the Cowboys higher than him all year, and not even I think they deserve to go this high. I can't disagree with his logic, though. The Eagles are an embarrassment with no interest in even trying to win this game.
Stally's Six-Point Pick - Houston over @Tennessee
Stally: I'm not sold on any team being truly great this season, and that encompasses both the one-loss Texans and Falcons. Houston is definitely very good, but they barely escaped the Jags two weeks ago and needed OT and an unknown rule on play reviews to beat the Lions. I'm sticking with the Texans, but it's more a reflection of the uncertainty of the week that I took them this early in a road game against an erratic team.
Austen: As I said last week, the Titans always seem to screw me. I put a lot of confidence in them beating the Jags, and what did they do? They lost to the stinking Jags. I'm happy Stally took this one because it could definitely be an upset. On the other hand, the Texans are the way better team and are still probably the safest bet left on the board.
Stally: I'm not sold on any team being truly great this season, and that encompasses both the one-loss Texans and Falcons. Houston is definitely very good, but they barely escaped the Jags two weeks ago and needed OT and an unknown rule on play reviews to beat the Lions. I'm sticking with the Texans, but it's more a reflection of the uncertainty of the week that I took them this early in a road game against an erratic team.
Austen: As I said last week, the Titans always seem to screw me. I put a lot of confidence in them beating the Jags, and what did they do? They lost to the stinking Jags. I'm happy Stally took this one because it could definitely be an upset. On the other hand, the Texans are the way better team and are still probably the safest bet left on the board.
Austen's Six-Point Pick - @Chicago over Seattle
Austen: The Seahawks simply cannot win on the road. The Bears are one of the best teams in the league. Jay Cutler is back and I think he proves he is elite by tearing up this Seattle defense that has a lot of controversy around it right now.
Stally: The Bears temporary struggles were only due to the brief loss of Jay Cutler. They are one of the best teams in the league, and while it's hard for anyone to win in Seattle, they're a below-average team without their vaunted 12th Man. Chicago by two scores.
Austen: The Seahawks simply cannot win on the road. The Bears are one of the best teams in the league. Jay Cutler is back and I think he proves he is elite by tearing up this Seattle defense that has a lot of controversy around it right now.
Stally: The Bears temporary struggles were only due to the brief loss of Jay Cutler. They are one of the best teams in the league, and while it's hard for anyone to win in Seattle, they're a below-average team without their vaunted 12th Man. Chicago by two scores.
Stally's Five-Point Pick - @Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Stally: When we drafted on Wednesday, Big Ben's status for the Steelers was up in the air, but I banked on him not being healthy enough to play. It appears that my gamble paid off, and I have a hard time believing that it's going to be Charlie Batch that delivers the Ravens their first home loss of the year ... if you exclude the kick that beat New England that wasn't between the uprights. Just sayin' ...
Austen: I was really hoping Big Ben would be back in this one. With Charlie Batch leading this team, they basically have no chance. He was not good in his prime and he is 37 now. This will be the turning point in the Steelers season where they lose all hope of making the playoffs.
Stally: When we drafted on Wednesday, Big Ben's status for the Steelers was up in the air, but I banked on him not being healthy enough to play. It appears that my gamble paid off, and I have a hard time believing that it's going to be Charlie Batch that delivers the Ravens their first home loss of the year ... if you exclude the kick that beat New England that wasn't between the uprights. Just sayin' ...
Austen: I was really hoping Big Ben would be back in this one. With Charlie Batch leading this team, they basically have no chance. He was not good in his prime and he is 37 now. This will be the turning point in the Steelers season where they lose all hope of making the playoffs.
Austen's Five-Point Pick - Carolina over @Kansas City
Austen: The Panthers are not great. Well actually, they stink. However, no one is close to as bad as the Chiefs are right now. With the news of Javon Belcher (Chiefs' starting middle linebacker) killing his wife and then killing himself in the Chiefs' facilities with the coaches trying to talk him down, it is hard for me to imagine this team playing inspired football.
Stally: I don't even want to remember the name of that worthless coward. Had he not taken the easy way out, this guy would have been locked up a few decades for murder. While the incident is shocking and tragic, I truly hope they do nothing to remember him, because it's disgusting that some people are viewing him as a victim. Right now, his soul is decomposing in a steamy part of Hell and I prefer it stayed there for eternity. On the field, you hear of teams, the Colts being a good example, playing inspired football to over come life's adversity. This isn't an inspirational story in any way, shape or form, and I can't see it being a bonding experience for the team to come together.
Austen: The Panthers are not great. Well actually, they stink. However, no one is close to as bad as the Chiefs are right now. With the news of Javon Belcher (Chiefs' starting middle linebacker) killing his wife and then killing himself in the Chiefs' facilities with the coaches trying to talk him down, it is hard for me to imagine this team playing inspired football.
Stally: I don't even want to remember the name of that worthless coward. Had he not taken the easy way out, this guy would have been locked up a few decades for murder. While the incident is shocking and tragic, I truly hope they do nothing to remember him, because it's disgusting that some people are viewing him as a victim. Right now, his soul is decomposing in a steamy part of Hell and I prefer it stayed there for eternity. On the field, you hear of teams, the Colts being a good example, playing inspired football to over come life's adversity. This isn't an inspirational story in any way, shape or form, and I can't see it being a bonding experience for the team to come together.
Stally's Four-Point Pick - @Atlanta over New Orleans
Stally: My Thursday night theory of taking the home team is tried and true. The Falcons are great in the Georgia Dome and with New Orleans putting the lone mark in the Atlanta loss column, you had to assume the home team would be on red alert. I certainly didn't expect Drew Brees to play as badly as he did for the Saints, but I also didn't expect he'd be enough for them to win this tough one.
Austen: I thought this one would be a shootout with whoever had the ball last winning the game. I was really wrong on that one. I had the Falcons as well, but I was less confident than Stally on this one.
Stally: My Thursday night theory of taking the home team is tried and true. The Falcons are great in the Georgia Dome and with New Orleans putting the lone mark in the Atlanta loss column, you had to assume the home team would be on red alert. I certainly didn't expect Drew Brees to play as badly as he did for the Saints, but I also didn't expect he'd be enough for them to win this tough one.
Austen: I thought this one would be a shootout with whoever had the ball last winning the game. I was really wrong on that one. I had the Falcons as well, but I was less confident than Stally on this one.
Austen's Four-Point Pick - Cincinnati over @San Diego
Austen: Remember when the Chargers were one of the most talented teams in the NFL who just simply could never put it all together? Well now they are a minimally talented team that still plays worse than their talent level. Simply put, they are not good. The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and I expect them to play to the top of their abilities, which is much more than I can say about the Chargers.
Stally: If a picture is worth 1,000 words, how many is a video worth? This says all you need to know about the Chargers:
Austen: Remember when the Chargers were one of the most talented teams in the NFL who just simply could never put it all together? Well now they are a minimally talented team that still plays worse than their talent level. Simply put, they are not good. The Bengals are fighting for their playoff lives and I expect them to play to the top of their abilities, which is much more than I can say about the Chargers.
Stally: If a picture is worth 1,000 words, how many is a video worth? This says all you need to know about the Chargers:
Stally's Three-Point Pick - @New York Jets over Arizona
Stally: Even Monte Kiffin's swiss cheese defense could slow down Ryan Lindley. Why he's playing, I'll never know, but the Cardinals are horrendous. When they started 4-0, it seemed unlikely that the roughly 7-9 record I'd predicted them at was fair. Now, at 4-7, it might be more than fair. As much as the Jets have struggled, I have to assume they win this one at home, especially with an indoor team from Arizona bearing the elements of December in New Jersey.
Austen: If the Jets cannot win this game, everyone in the front office should be fired. The Cardinals have lost seven in a row now and cannot seem to do anything on offense, despite having the NFL's first $100 million wide receiver. This should be a low scoring, awful game to watch, but as always, I will be in Met Life Stadium supporting my terrible team, unlike that quitter Fireman Ed.
Stally: In Fireman Ed's defense, he pays markedly more than you do to watch that crap.
Stally: Even Monte Kiffin's swiss cheese defense could slow down Ryan Lindley. Why he's playing, I'll never know, but the Cardinals are horrendous. When they started 4-0, it seemed unlikely that the roughly 7-9 record I'd predicted them at was fair. Now, at 4-7, it might be more than fair. As much as the Jets have struggled, I have to assume they win this one at home, especially with an indoor team from Arizona bearing the elements of December in New Jersey.
Austen: If the Jets cannot win this game, everyone in the front office should be fired. The Cardinals have lost seven in a row now and cannot seem to do anything on offense, despite having the NFL's first $100 million wide receiver. This should be a low scoring, awful game to watch, but as always, I will be in Met Life Stadium supporting my terrible team, unlike that quitter Fireman Ed.
Stally: In Fireman Ed's defense, he pays markedly more than you do to watch that crap.
Austen's Three-Point Pick - @Denver over Tampa Bay
Austen: It is really hard for any team to come into Denver and beat the Broncos. That got way harder when they kicked Tim Tebow out of town and signed Peyton Manning. I think Stally is underestimating Denver's home field advantage with the high altitude always causing problems for opponents. That being said, I think the Broncos are a better team than the Bucs and they definitely have the better quarterback and the better defense.
Stally: Austen put together a little bit of a preemptive strike on that one, but here's the deal: the Bucs had won four in a row before dropping a heartbreaking, one-point loss to the NFC-leading Falcons last week. Sure, the Broncos have won six in a row, but Cincinnati (6-5) is the only team with a winning record in that span. Denver is 2-3 this season against teams with winning records, those two wins coming against 6-5 teams. The Bucs are 6-5 as well, but they're playing better than that, and I think they're the better team.
Stally's Two-Point Pick - @Detroit over Indianapolis
Stally: We're in coin flip zone at this point with still four games remaining. Detroit's pass heavy offense functions best when it's indoors (at home, obviously, is better). The Colts are 2-3 on the road compared to 5-1 at home, so this one is about home field advantage.
Austen: Both of these quarterbacks have the capability of throwing for over 400 yards or for less than 200 with multiple turnovers. I have no idea who will come out on top in this one.
Stally: Thanks for at least venturing a guess. Really great insight for our readers ...
Stally: We're in coin flip zone at this point with still four games remaining. Detroit's pass heavy offense functions best when it's indoors (at home, obviously, is better). The Colts are 2-3 on the road compared to 5-1 at home, so this one is about home field advantage.
Austen: Both of these quarterbacks have the capability of throwing for over 400 yards or for less than 200 with multiple turnovers. I have no idea who will come out on top in this one.
Stally: Thanks for at least venturing a guess. Really great insight for our readers ...
Austen's Two-Point Pick - New York Giants over @Washington
Austen: Eli Manning has played terrible against the Redskins over the last few years. It makes no sense, but he really struggles against this team for some reason. That being said, this is the time of year that the Giants put it all together and push themselves into the playoffs. It also helps that the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league.
Stally: I'm confused. I got a text from Austen last week asking, "So you on the Black Jesus bandwagon yet?" It was a little odd considering I said in our Week 2 preview back in September, "I'm all in on RG3." It's even more peculiar now that he's taking the Giants on the road, while I'm sticking with the rookie. The reason you can't see me on the bandwagon, Austen, is because you're clenching on to a standing room only pole at the back, hoping not to fall off, and I'm comfortably seated in the front, where I've been all season. If you could find a way to maneuver up here, you'd see me happily riding along with a smile as big as RG3's.
Austen: Eli Manning has played terrible against the Redskins over the last few years. It makes no sense, but he really struggles against this team for some reason. That being said, this is the time of year that the Giants put it all together and push themselves into the playoffs. It also helps that the Redskins pass defense is one of the worst in the league.
Stally: I'm confused. I got a text from Austen last week asking, "So you on the Black Jesus bandwagon yet?" It was a little odd considering I said in our Week 2 preview back in September, "I'm all in on RG3." It's even more peculiar now that he's taking the Giants on the road, while I'm sticking with the rookie. The reason you can't see me on the bandwagon, Austen, is because you're clenching on to a standing room only pole at the back, hoping not to fall off, and I'm comfortably seated in the front, where I've been all season. If you could find a way to maneuver up here, you'd see me happily riding along with a smile as big as RG3's.
Stally's One-Point Pick - @Buffalo over Jacksonville
Stally: Ugh. This is a terrible game to pick. Chad Henne makes the Jaguars better, but it's pretty absurd to use the word "good" when talking about this 2-9 team. December in Buffalo can get pretty nasty and the Jags have never had an affinity for playing in cold weather, so I give the advantage to the Bills. It doesn't hurt, either, that Jacksonville's run defense is horrendous and CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson present a strong dual threat should swirling winds cut out the passing games.
(Editor's Note: This game is actually indoors in Toronto.)
Austen: The Bills' defense has been significantly worse at home for some reason, so I have the Jags on the road. However, this is the definition of the coin flip so I have almost on confidence on this pick.
Stally: Ugh. This is a terrible game to pick. Chad Henne makes the Jaguars better, but it's pretty absurd to use the word "good" when talking about this 2-9 team. December in Buffalo can get pretty nasty and the Jags have never had an affinity for playing in cold weather, so I give the advantage to the Bills. It doesn't hurt, either, that Jacksonville's run defense is horrendous and CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson present a strong dual threat should swirling winds cut out the passing games.
(Editor's Note: This game is actually indoors in Toronto.)
Austen: The Bills' defense has been significantly worse at home for some reason, so I have the Jags on the road. However, this is the definition of the coin flip so I have almost on confidence on this pick.
Austen's One-Point Pick - Cleveland over @Oakland
Austen: The Raiders defense is too terrible for them to beat anyone, that includes the Browns. Trent Richardson might have a career day and lead his team to a totally meaningless win. Both these teams might want to try to lose this one in order to get a better draft pick because their seasons are over.
Stally: I have the Raiders because I think it's foolish to take a 3-8 Browns team with an 0-5 road record. I also like the Raiders' Carson Palmer more than the Browns' Brandon Weeden when it comes to QBs. If I don't sound sold, I'm really not, but I'm going with the home team.
Austen: The Raiders defense is too terrible for them to beat anyone, that includes the Browns. Trent Richardson might have a career day and lead his team to a totally meaningless win. Both these teams might want to try to lose this one in order to get a better draft pick because their seasons are over.
Stally: I have the Raiders because I think it's foolish to take a 3-8 Browns team with an 0-5 road record. I also like the Raiders' Carson Palmer more than the Browns' Brandon Weeden when it comes to QBs. If I don't sound sold, I'm really not, but I'm going with the home team.
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