We are getting so close to the NFL Draft that it was 100%
necessary to put in my first mock draft of the season. As always, I will mock
it up as if there were going to be no trades, which I am sure there will be
plenty of on draft day. Look for the Vikings and the Browns to trade down
early, but after that is anyone’s guess on who will be making trades (not a
single mock draft last season had the Jags trading up to the 10th
pick to nab Blaine Gabbert). Here is my best guess at who is going where.
1. COLTS: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
This is a no brainer. People have been talking about this
since Week 4 of last season. The Colts get the best quarterback prospect since,
you guessed it, Peyton Manning. The Colts have to be the luckiest franchise in
the NFL. Maybe it has something to do with that horseshoe on their helmets…
2. REDSKINS: QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
This is already set in stone as well. Griffin has already
been seen doing events in the Washington area and has been deemed the savoir of
a once proud franchise. Let’s hope Mike Shanahan manages him better than he did
Donovan McNabb.
3. VIKINGS: OT Matt Kalil, USC
The Vikings will look to trade this pick, but they are in
desperate need at a franchise left tackle to help out last year’s first round
pick, quarterback Christian Ponder. If they cannot get a great deal for this
pick, they will gladly take Kalil and he will man the left side of their
offensive line for the next decade.
4. BROWNS: RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
I really have no idea what the Browns will do here, but it
will send a ripple effect throughout the rest of this draft. Richardson is the
highest rated prospect on the board and they have a need at running back with
Peyton Hillis gone for Kansas City. Wide receiver is a big need, but there is
way more depth at that position and Richardson is the best running back
prospect since Adrian Peterson. Ryan Tannehill will definitely be considered
here, but they will realize that Colt McCoy should get at least one offseason as
their starting quarterback before they completely give up on him.
5. BUCCANEERS: CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
No one will be happier than LeGarrette Blount when
Richardson goes to the Browns, as he has publicly said that he “would not be
happy” if the Bucs take Richardson. Cornerback is a huge need for this team,
even with the signing of Eric Wright, and Claiborne could be a Pro Bowler for
years to come. The Bucs’ defense needs to make huge improvements before this
team can take the next step with all of their expensive free agent
acquisitions.
6. RAMS: WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
The Rams end up with the player they would have taken anyway
with the number two overall pick, an extra second round pick in 2012, and extra
first round picks in 2013 and 2014. This might be the greatest draft trade of
all time. However, if Sam Bradford does not make huge improvements from last
season and Griffin ends up as a top quarterback in the league, it could end up
as one of the bigger draft blunders. Either way, the Rams have a ton of picks
to make up for passing on Griffin and Blackmon should make an impact
immediately.
7. JAGUARS: WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
This might be a little high for Floyd who does have some
character concerns, but with the insane contracts receivers are getting in free
agency, the Jags know they have to find some value at the position in the
draft. The Jags gave Laurent Robinson number one receiver money (5 years $32
million) so it would make sense for them to get a number one receiver at an affordable
cost thanks to the new rookie wage scale. This also allows Mike Thomas to be
used mostly in the slot and as a kickoff/punt returner, where he belongs
instead of masquerading as a number one receiver.
8. DOLPHINS: QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M
The Dolphins are desperate for franchise quarterback and are
clearly not sold on Matt Moore being their starter, since they flirted with
both Peyton Manning and Matt Flynn in free agency, as well as signing David
Garrard. The Dolphins coaching staff knows Tannehill very well, so they will
know exactly what he brings to the table. Whether or not that is a good thing
for Tannehill has yet to be seen. Either way, I think the Fins will take a
chance on Tannehill and let him sit behind Moore for at least the start of the
2012 season since he is very raw and not ready to be thrown into the fire.
9. PANTHERS: DT Michael Brockers, LSU
I have heard many differing opinions about Brockers.
Everything from he is an athletic freak who will be dominant at the next level
to he is so raw that he will need at least a year to get up to speed in the
NFL. However, the Panthers are desperate for a defensive tackle and apparently
love what Brockers brings to the table. The Panthers will most likely try to
trade down because there are a lot of great defensive tackles with similar
grades left on the board, and the position is their biggest weakness. This
might be the spot someone, like the Jets, might try to trade up to nab Melvin
Ingram.
10. BILLS: OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
The Bills offensive line was their biggest weakness when
they still had Demetress Bell, who just signed with the Eagles. This line is
atrocious without him and if they do not take a tackle with this pick, and he
is able to step in and be productive Week 1, this team is not winning more than
six or seven games even with the addition of Mario Williams. The Bills tend to
ignore the offensive line for some reason in the draft, so don’t be surprised
if they go wide receiver or cornerback here. Ingram will get consideration as
well.
11. CHIEFS: DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
Poe has seen his stock fall a lot since his unbelievable
combine, but the Chiefs are in such need for a big nose tackle that I think
they might reach for the athletic monster named Poe. He is very raw, but he has
the talent to be a Pro Bowl nose tackle for years to come and he is probably
worth the risk even this high.
12. SEAHAWKS: DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
The Seahawks defense was solid last season, but not great.
They have been looking for an upgrade at defensive end for half a decade and
Coples fits what Pete Carroll is looking for. Coples is big enough to play end
is both the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses, both of which the Seahawks run in the hybrid
defense. He is strong against the run as well as an excellent pass rusher. The
only reason he is this low is because of his questionable work ethic. Carroll
is a players-coach and guys get excited to play for him, especially on defense,
so hopefully he can motivate Coples to be the best he can be.
13. CARDINALS: G David DeCastro, Stanford
DeCastro is the best guard prospect in years and the Cards
offensive line has been hurting for years now, especially the guard spots. This
is a huge get for this team and DeCastro should be a Pro Bowl player for years
to come.
14. COWBOYS: CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
The lack of talent in the defensive backfield is the sole
reason that the Boys missed out on the playoffs yet again, not Tony Romo. This
pass defense has been horrendous for years, which is inexcusable considering they
have the most feared pass rusher in the league with DeMarcus Ware. Kirkpatrick
has a lot of off the field issues, but his talent is too much for Jerry Jones
to pass up. The fact that he can play both cornerback and free safety only
makes him more desirable to the Cowboys.
15. EAGLES: DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
The Eagles will be ecstatic that Cox is still on the board
despite the fact he is Mike Mayock’s top rated defensive tackle and there have
been two tackles taken before him. Andy Reid drafts defensive line (or
offensive line) almost every year in the first round, so Cox is the perfect fit
for this team.
16. JETS: DE/OLB Melvin Ingram, South Carolina
This is a huge steal for the Jets who would have probably
traded up to get such a talented pass rusher, but the lack of 3-4 teams in the
top half of the draft and the concern about Ingram’s short arms allows him to
fall this far. Ingram is not big enough to be an effective, every down
defensive end in a 4-3, so he will be looked at mainly as a 3-4 outside
linebacker. This is the Jets’ biggest need and Ingram is the best player in the
draft to fill that need. He should make an immediate impact on Rex Ryan’s
defense and be the pass rusher that the Jets have been looking for since the
Vernon Gholston experiment.
17. BENGALS: ILB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
Considering that Kuechly could be gone in the top ten, this
would be a huge steal for the Bengals. While middle linebacker isn’t the most
pressing need for the team, he is simply too talented to pass up. This is an
every down linebacker who should be dominant immediately, but he falls because
the inside linebacker position has lost a lot of value over recent years. The
trade of Keith Rivers pushes Kuechly even further up the Bengals’ board.
18. CHARGERS: SS Mark Barron, Alabama
The ever-injured Bob Sanders attempted to fill the strong
safety position for the Chargers last season, but that did not go as planned.
Eric Weddle was given a huge contract last offseason, so it would be nice to
pair him with at least someone decent. Adding Barron would give the Chargers
the best safety tandem in the NFL and they would not have to worry about the
position for a long time, as long as Barron’s injuries are behind him.
19. BEARS: WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
Offensive line, linebacker, safety, and cornerback are all
areas of need, but with Brandon Marshall likely to be suspended for an unknown
amount of time and Johnny Knox looking like he will miss the beginning of the
season with an injury, the wide receiver position again looks terribly slim for
the Bears. The Bears nation is praying that Floyd will fall to them at 19, but
in my mock he is long gone. Wright is a speedy receiver, despite his poor 40
time, and will be a deep threat for Jay Cutler immediately. Let’s just hope the
offensive line gives him time to get the ball downfield.
20. TITANS: DE Nick Perry, USC
The Titans love undersized defensive ends with pass rush
skills and Perry fits the bill. Almost every defensive end on the Titans roster
departed in free agency and former first round pick Derrick Morgan has yet to
live up to even the most modest expectations. This is a huge need for the
Titans, but Perry will give them the blindside pass rusher they are looking
for.
21. BENGALS: CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
Dre Kirkpatrick would have probably been their pick at 17
had it not been for the Cowboys taking him three picks earlier. However, they
would be more than happy to land Gilmore at 21. Gilmore is extremely talented
and is more of a pure corner than Kirkpatrick. Considering they lost corners
Johnathan Joseph to the Texans last season and Leon Hall to an injury which
might sideline him for the start of the season in 2012, cornerback went from a
strength to a huge weakness for the Bengals in less than 12 months. Gilmore
gives them an insurance policy if Hall misses time and makes the position a
strength again once he is back. The team signed ex-Cowboy Terence Newman, but
he was so terrible last year I refuse to believe that they see him as a starter.
22. BROWNS: OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
Martin was once considered a top ten pick, but most people
are starting to see him as a right tackle only. However, the Browns would be
ecstatic to have Martin team up with Joe Thomas as their bookend tackles and
man the right side of their line, which has been manned by garbage players over
the last few years. Colt McCoy will be very happy with the Browns going offense
with their first two picks.
23. LIONS: OT Mike Adams, Ohio State
Too long have the Lions ignored the offensive line. It is
finally time to find a real left tackle to protect the frail Matt Stafford.
Adams’ draft stock is all over the place, but the Lions seem like a good spot
for him. Adams has a ton of athletic ability for such a huge man, but he is
still very raw. The Lions resigned Jeff Backus to remain as their left tackle,
but he is very old and has never been all that productive. However, his
presence allows Adams to learn behind him and possibly play left guard or right
tackle as he gets up to speed.
24. STEELERS: ILB Dont’a Hightower, Alabama
Cornerback and offensive line are huge needs for the
Steelers, but they tend to take the best player available. Hightower is the
best player on the board and he also adds some much needed youth to an aging
defense. He can play inside and even play some outside linebacker. The Steelers
put a lot of value on versatile players, so they will definitely be high on
Hightower (no pun intended).
25. BRONCOS: DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan State
I cannot name a single defensive tackle on the Broncos
roster now that Brodrick Bunkley departed for the Saints. This was a big need
before they lost Bunkley, so it is now imperative that the Broncos find an
immediate starter. Worthy seems like a solid prospect, but not a great one.
Still he is way better than anyone on the Broncos roster right now. Also do not
think that John Elway will be forced into taking an offensive player in order
to help Peyton Manning. He recruited Manning in order to help the Broncos
offensive players, not the other way around.
26. TEXANS: WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech
Andre Johnson has never had a true number two receiver to
start along side him in his career. He would love a chance to see single
coverage sometime before he has to retire, so the Texans help out an already
explosive offense by adding the receiver in this draft with the most upside. At
6’4 215 pounds, Hill ran a 4.3 40 yard dash, which reminds people of fellow
Georgia Tech alum Calvin Johnson’s combine. On the other hand, Hill is extreme
raw and caught less than 30 passes last season (yet he did record almost 30
yards per reception, which lead the nation). Who better for Hill to learn how
to play the receiver position from than Johnson? This seems to be a match made
in heaven, especially fantasy football heaven.
27. PATRIOTS: DE/OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
Upshaw has seen his stock plummet recently, which I called
months ago. I’ve even seen him fall to the middle of the second round in some
mocks. He is a very average athlete without a real position in the NFL (he is
too big to be a 3-4 outside linebacker but not strong enough to be a true 4-3
defensive end). However, he was extremely productive in college against top
talent in the SEC. He is a confusing prospect, but Bill Belichick tends to side
with production over measurables. Since the Pats run a hybrid 4-3, 3-4
defensive, Upshaw is the type of player that he looks for.
28. PACKERS: DE/OLB Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
The Packers defense was terrible last season because they
simply could not get to the quarterback, which was what helped them get to the
Super Bowl just one year earlier. They need a young pass rusher to team up with
Clay Matthews and they could do a lot worse than Mercilus. He is used to
playing in the cold up north, so Green Bay’s weather will not be a problem for
him. He also led the nation in sacks and forced fumbles last season (16 and 9
respectively) despite losing his left index finger in a weight room accident.
This is the type of old school toughness the Packers will love.
29. RAVENS: C Peter Konz, Wisconsin
This is the type of inside mauler that the Ravens love. With
Ben Grubbs moving on to the Saints, the Ravens’ interior offensive line could
use some work. Konz will be an immediate starter as he is the far and away the
best center in this draft.
30. 49ERS: OL Cordy Glenn, Georgia
With the ability to play both tackle and guard, Glenn gives
the 49ers an upgrade along the offensive line at whatever position they see fit
to put him in. Offensive line is one of the only positions on the team that
really needs to be addressed. I am sure the 49ers are hoping that one of the
top receivers falls this far, but not in this mock.
31. PATRIOTS: CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
The Patriots’ defensive backfield was such a mess last
season that they were starting
receiver/punt returner Julian Edelman at cornerback. Jenkins has a lot of off
the field concerns (he was kicked out of Florida), but Belichick does not mind
taking questionable characters from Urban Meyer’s program (i.e. Aaron
Hernandez). Jenkins is also probably the best player left on the board.
32. GIANTS: TE Coby Fleener, Stanford
During the Super Bowl, the Giants lost two of the three
tight ends on their roster (both starter Jake Ballard and third stringer Travis
Beckum went down with serious knee injuries). With only Bear Pascoe healthy,
tight end is a huge need for the Super Bowl champs and Fleener’s stock has been
soaring since he ran his 40 yard dash in the 4.4 range, which would be solid
for a receiver let alone a tight end at 6’6 245 pounds. He could be gone by
this point, but the Giants will not let him slip through their hands.
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