Thursday, November 22, 2012

Week 12: Football Feast

Redskins' tight end Fred Davis has officially dubbed
RG3 as "Black Jesus" for his miraculous rookie season.
I want to start this article by wishing everyone out there a Happy Thanksgiving. Despite making my job more difficult, I am thankful for such a great slate of NFL games this week. Being able to sit down and watch three solid NFL games in a row on a Thursday is a great luxury that almost never comes along. Remember how many years we all had to sit through the Lions getting massacred on Thanksgiving? I am by no means a Lions' fan, but thank RG3 the Lions are relevant again.

Speaking of "Black Jesus" (thank you fellow Trojan Fred Davis for giving RG3 such an epic nickname), watching the hottest rookie in the NFL go into Dallas to possibly spoil the Cowboys' playoff hopes is one of the more interesting matchups of the week (more on that later).

With so much on the line this week with tons of divisional matchups, and some great grudge matches from last year's playoffs, there should be some serious dog fights. Here are the teams that Stally and I believe will have something extra to be thankful for.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - Denver over @Kansas City

Austen: Peyton Manning is MVP worthy once again. The Chiefs are starting Brady Quinn. I am still unsure how Quinn is in any way an improvement on Matt Cassel. Say what you want about Cassel, but he actually has talent and his teammates respect him. I cannot say either about Quinn. Home field advantage will not save the Chiefs this week.

Stally: With the rivalry college game this weekend, I'd be interested in further discussing why USC's Cassel is a better choice than Notre Dame's Quinn, but who cares?  The Chiefs suck regardless.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - New England over @New York Jets

Stally: Austen said before that there are a lot of games that are difficult to pick this week.  While we will agree on most, there's not a lot of confidence to go around.  I'm putting my full confidence in a Patriots team that is far better than the Jets, but after the Jets took them to overtime in Foxboro, I'm curious if I'm just an arrogant New Englander to put so much confidence in my boys.

Austen: The Jets are the far worse team, but with Gronk out and Aaron Hernandez still banged up, the Jets might actually have a shot. The Jets kept it close in Foxborough against a healthy Pats team so who knows what might happen. That being said, the Patriots are still one of the biggest favorites of the week, so I have them as well despite the fact that I will physically be at this game.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick - Houston over @Detroit

Austen: The Texans' defense has been exposed at times this season, mostly due to subpar safeties letting up big plays. If there is one thing the Lions can do is make you pay with the deep ball. However, I think Detroit's struggles in the first half of the game will doom them in this one. The Texans might hold onto a small lead all game, but Arian Foster is the best closer in the league and I am confident the Texans will leave Motor City with a win. Look for J.J. Watt to help his case for Defensive Player of the Year.

Stally: Like the New England vs. New York game, it's a very solid team going on the road against a team that has been disappointingly subpar.  I still think the Lions are dangerous when they choose to be, but the Texans are really the best choice out there.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @Chicago over Minnesota

Stally: I need to stop tossing my picks together in five minutes.  This is the second week in a row that I've spaced on a QB injury (last week it was the Steelers), as I forgot that Jason Campbell is still in for Jay Cutler as the Bears signal caller.  I still like the Bears defense at home to shut down Christian Ponder, but I shouldn't have taken this game so early.

Austen: Jay Cutler might actually be back for this game so it might not be as risky as I once thought. The Bears got exposed last week so look for them to be atop their game this week. I think it will be a close defensive struggle.

Austen's Six-Point Pick - @Cincinnati over Oakland

Austen: I'm calling it right now, the Bengals are sneaking into the playoffs for the second year in a row. To do that, they have to beat inferior teams at home. The Raiders will put up a fight, but turnovers and big penalties will sink the Raiders as they always do.

Stally: It's certainly not outlandish to see a respectable Cincinnati team go to the playoffs.  Barring an unexpected run from a 4-6 team like the Chargers, Titans or Dolphins, the paltry AFC is looking at three teams vying for the two Wild Cards: the Steelers (6-4), the Colts (6-4) and the Bengals (5-5).  The Bengals are the most balanced of the three, and they should keep pace with a win this weekend.

Stally's Six-Point Pick - @Indianapolis over Buffalo

Stally: Wow!  The Colts got ruined last weekend in epic fashion by New England.  However, I think that embarrassment might have provided a learning opportunity and taught the young team that they still have work to do to be among the league's best.  If they can't beat the Bills at home, I'll have to change my tune of optimism.

Austen: If this were in Buffalo, I might actually take the Bills. However, the Colts are playing very well at home, so they are the clear favorite. Neither of these teams are very good, but I'll take Andrew Luck over Ryan Fitzpatrick any day.

Austen's Five-Point Pick - Seattle over @Miami

Austen: The Dolphins are done. There were about two weeks where I thought that they could actually make the playoffs. Then they crashed down to reality. Reggie Bush cannot run the ball. Ryan Tannehill looks as confused as I expected him to be in Year One. Brian Hartline no longer looks like the answer at receiver. That stifling run defense has deflated. I'm not sure what has happened to this team, but they are playing horrible football and look as bad as Stally and I thought they would be at the start of the season. On the other hand, the Seahawks are fighting for a playoff spot and their defense is playing as well as any in the NFL. I'd be shocked if the Fins put up double-digit points in this one.

Stally: Don't get me started on Hartline and the time I lost a fantasy football matchup earlier in the season because he put up 32.3 points.  In fact, don't get me started on the Dolphins at all.  They haven't been good since 1972.  End of story.

In a bizarre attempt to get more butts in the seats in Cleveland,
the Browns are giving away free white flags to their fans. Is
this what we should expect of the Browns against the Steelers?
Stally's Five-Point Pick - Pittsburgh over @Cleveland

Stally: I don't care if the Steelers go to West Texas and take Ryan Leaf away from his small college, QB coaching duties, or where ever it is that he is now.  The Steelers are better than the Browns regardless of who goes at QB for the black and yellow.  This week, it's going to be Charlie Batch.

Austen: I really think the Browns can pull a huge upset and knock the Steelers out of the playoffs. I think the Browns are way better than Stally gives them credit. They have been close in almost all of their games this year and they actually play tough football. I think the Steelers running back rotation will help them win a close one, but it would not surprise me at all to see the Steelers fall.

Austen's Four-Point Pick - Tennessee over @Jacksonville

Austen: The Titans always tend to screw me over whenever I bet on or against them. This is the one team in the NFL I can never get a handle on. However, my love for betting against Jacksonville is well documented, and in my defense it is a pretty solid bet at all points. In a week of a lot of toss ups, I am going with the Titans who always seem to play their best football the second half of the season. Also, I have never seen Chad Henne put up two good performances in a row. The Titans will actually be able to game plan for him, unlike the Texans, and he will remember why he got booted out of Miami for a bunch of other mediocre quarterbacks.

Stally: I agree.  The Titans are always an enigma, so I'm glad you took this game.  However, let's not forget that Henne was Blaine Gabbert's back up, what does that say about his abilities?

Stally's Four-Point Pick - Green Bay over @New York Giants

Stally: For whatever reason, the Giants are terrible in November.  I'm fully confident that the Giants are going to take some notes for how to beat the Cheeseheads come mid-January, but I'm also confident that a better Packers team takes this one.

Austen: The Packers got embarrassed in the playoffs by the Giants last season. Do not think for one second that did not stick with Aaron Rodgers all season. He has had this game marked on his calendar all year, so expect him to be lights out. The Giants could end up getting blown out in this one.

Austen's Three-Point Pick - @New Orleans over San Francisco

Austen: The Saints are out for revenge for last season's playoff loss to the 49ers. They are playing spectacularly on offense and their defense is actually making progress. Drew Brees is almost impossible to beat at home. The 49ers had a huge win over the Bears, which could have huge playoff implications, but Jason Campbell is no Brees.

Stally: I have the Saints, but with very little confidence.  The 49ers are a flat out tough team that's led by a workmanlike coach in Jim Harbaugh.  The Saints are going to need that home crowd to help them out with this one.

Stally's Three-Point Pick - @Dallas over Washington

Stally: I know the cover photo is a RG3 depiction of Jesus, but this is why I don't usually let Austen decide the theme of the week's article.  Are the Redskins a better team than the Cowboys?  No.  With that in mind, it's hard to go against Dallas at home, so I'm picking against the cover photo.

Austen: The Cowboys are way worse at home than on the road. Why, I just don't know, but they are. This team needed OT to beat the Browns. The Cowboys are the better team, but the Redskins have the better quarterback. If the Redskins lose this one, it will be because their defense cannot stop a nose bleed. Should be an exciting rivalry game.

Austen's Two-Point Pick - Carolina over @Philadelphia

Austen: Both these teams stink, however the Panthers seem to be improving bit by bit, while the Eagles seem like they are no longer interested in playing football in 2012. With LeSean McCoy looking like he will miss this contest and Nick Foles getting another start, I cannot imagine the Eagles putting up much of a fight.

Stally: The Panthers are awful, just awful.  I know the Eagles have decided to fold on the season, but they still have more to offer than the Panthers.  I'm going with Philly.

Stally's Two-Point Pick - @Arizona over St. Louis

Stally: This is a tough one to call because the Cardinals have lost six straight.  Still, they almost had the one-loss Falcons on the road last weekend and I view them as a small favorite since they're at home for this one.

Austen: I have the Cardinals as well but I have no idea why. Their defense is better I guess.....

Austen's One-Point Pick - Baltimore over @San Diego

Austen: The Ravens on the road is always a tough one to bet on, but the Chargers have been so horrendous this season where ever they play that I will take my chances with the superior team. I expect Ed Reed to cause at least two turnovers and Terrell Suggs might actually murder Phillip Rivers "legally." Have you seen the Chargers' offensive tackles? I think they are missing because defensive players have been using Rivers as a tackling dummy.

Stally: I'm not so sold on the Ravens ability to beat a respectable team on the road.  Their three road wins this season have been over Kansas City, Cleveland and a Steelers team that was missing its starting QB.  I don't like the Chargers, I just think they're good enough to win this game at home.

Stally's One-Point Pick - @Tampa Bay over Atlanta

Stally: This one is obviously an upset special.  It's about time we accepted that the Bucs are a good team at 6-4.  They'll be very familiar with their division rival and the fact that this game is outdoors in their building, as opposed to in the Georgia Dome, is a game changer.

Austen: I love everything about the way the Bucs play football expect their pass defense. This game comes down to how many mistakes Matt Ryan makes because the Bucs excellent run D will force him into winning the game for his team. After a five interception game, I think Ryan will bounce back, but the Falcons defense might be too banged up to cover all of the Bucs offensive weapons (I cannot believe I just said that). The Bucs are for real and I like them in the upset as well.

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