Sunday, December 16, 2012

Week 15: A Week Without Confidence

Tom Brady will look to overpower his boyhood
favorite team on Sunday Night Football.
This might be the toughest week we've ever had to pick in the two years we've done this blog.  Both Austen and I found ourselves saying, "I can't believe I'm taking this game this high, but..."  Those picks were often responded to with a head-shaking agreement from the other.

It will certainly be an exciting week to watch with so much uncertainty and such high playoff stakes.  The AFC seems to be honing in on its teams, as three division leaders have already punched playoff tickets, but the NFC is still wide open with three weeks to go.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @New England over San Francisco

Stally: I'll be honest.  San Francisco doesn't deserve to have so much confidence put against them.  However, this is one of, if not the, hardest weeks to predict, and New England rarely ever fails me.  I'll put the full confidence in my boys winning this one at home, especially with some winter conditions expected.

Austen: This is a cocky move by Stally since the 49ers might be the most talented team in the NFL. However, the Patriots rule December and it is hard to pick against them at home no matter the opponent. I think the Pats pull out a close one, but this is too high for this matchup.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - Detroit over @Arizona

Austen: Both these teams stink, but no one knows how to stink worse than the Cardinal right now. The Lions will put up points, but love to blow leads at the end of games. The Cardinals simply have nothing going on offense so I am not really concerned about a comeback in Arizona.

Stally: These teams have different kinds of stinks.  The Lions stink like an unexpected and overzealous fart.  The Cardinals stink like a person that hasn't showered in a few months, because let's be honest, it's been that long since they won a game.  Despite both these teams being 4-9, I couldn't agree more with this being Austen's first pick.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - Seattle over @Buffalo

Stally: The Seahawks might not be the same team on the road, but they're rounding into form as a dominant team in the NFL.  If they can win in Chicago, I see no reason they can't take flight against the Bills, especially since the indoor Toronto game takes the elements out of this one.

Austen: The Bills are 1-3 in Toronto. I think it is a huge disadvantage for them to basically lose one home game every year. The Seahawks are flying high and the Bills are their usual dismal self. I wish I could have gotten my hands on this matchup.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Houston over Indianapolis

Austen: The Colts are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. The Texans are coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Patriots. I think they take out their anger on a inferior Colts team. I see Andrew Luck making enough mistakes early to put this game out of reach by the fourth quarter.

Stally: The destruction in New England makes me question just how good the Texans actually are and whether or not they're 11-2 record is an accurate portrayal.  Just recently, they needed overtime in back-to-back weeks to beat Jacksonville and Detroit, combined 6-20 records, so I have my doubts.  Am I taking them in this one?  Yes, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Colts give them a challenge.

Stally's Six-Point Pick - Denver over @Baltimore

Stally: These are two teams headed into different directions.  The Broncos look like a Super Bowl contender, while the Ravens are regressing to the mediocrity that Austen and I have long expected.  Even on the road, the Broncos are a clear favorite.

Austen: The Ravens might be the most baffling team in the NFL this season. They are not particularly good in any phase of the game, yet they look like they will easily win a very tough division. They play so much better at home, but this defense is pieced together with string after a slew of devastating injuries. Joe Flacco is, well, Joe Flacco. You simply cannot trust him to do anything. I think the Broncos defense will have a field day. 

Austen's Six-Point Pick - @New Orleans over Tampa Bay

Austen: I dislike all the rest of these matchups. They are all coin flips to me. The Bucs pass defense is just atrocious. It might be the worst I have ever seen. Enter Drew Brees at home and you have a real serious issue. The Bucs might need to put up 50 points just to stay in this game.

Stally: I believe that Tampa Bay is the better team, slightly, but the Saints in the Superdome are a force to be reckoned with.  I think Austen picked this one too early, but he did pick the correct team to win.

Stally's Five-Point Pick - Cincinnati over @Philadelphia

Stally: This one already went down and the idea of picking against Philadelphia trumped the hesitancy of picking against a Thursday night road team.  The Bengals were clearly the better team and proved that on Thursday night.

Austen: The Eagles only shot was Bryce Brown blowing up like he did in his first two starts. Unfortunately for the Eagles, and my fantasy teams, he barely did anything. The Eagles turned the ball over so many times, they never gave themselves a chance.

Austen's Five-Point Pick - @Miami over Jacksonville

Austen: Chad Henne will play some inspired football against his old team. The problem: he is not very good (just like the rest of this Jags team). They just let the Mark Sanchez led Jets beat up on them at home. How do you think they will fare against a middle of the pack Dolphins team? Cameron Wake is licking his chops at the chance to get his hands on his old teammate he could never hit in practice.

Stally: Have you ever heard of Montell Owens?  Yeah, me neither, but he's the starting running back for a Jacksonville team noticeably lacking in talent.  Cecil Shorts is back, but that's only going to go so far for the miserable Jags.

Stally's Four-Point Pick - Green Bay over @Chicago

Stally: I'll admit that this is a tough call.  However, the Bears have looked very vulnerable of late and the Packers have won seven of their last eight.  The Cheeseheads have the better team and that will show in this crucial NFC North matchup.

Austen: The Bears defense is beat to hell. Jay Cutler is banged up. Matt Forte is not 100%. This sounds way too similar to the end of last season where they fell out of playoff contention. I have the Packers as well, but not with this much confidence. The Bears will put up a fight and this game always comes down the the wire.

Austen's Four-Point Pick - @Oakland over Kansas City

Austen: Brady Quinn is not good. That's all that needs to be said about this terrible, terrible game.

Stally: Jamaal Charles is very good, so I'm taking the Chiefs.  That's all that I'm saying about this terrible, terrible game.

Stally's Three-Point Pick - @Dallas over Pittsburgh

Stally: I'll let Austen tell you why you'd want to take a team on the road that just lost at home to the San Diego Chargers, because frankly, I have no clue.

Austen: The Cowboys needed overtime to beat the Browns in Dallas. The Steelers are essentially a better version of the Browns in every way. They are getting healthy. The Chargers game was a bizarre game that they will be angry about. The Steelers basically have to win this game with the Bengals and Jets (I can't believe I just said that) nipping at their heels.

Stally: November 25, 2012: Browns 20, Steelers 14 ... so much for your theory.

Austen's Three-Point Pick - @St. Louis over Minnesota

Austen: Home field advantage is huge for the Rams. They play lights out in St. Louis. Christian Ponder will blow this game for the Vikings.

Stally: I've been waiting at the bandwagon stop for the Rams a little longer than Austen, so I don't disagree.  Neither of us are fully on-board yet, but the home field advantage should help St. Louis a lot. The biggest worry is that Adrian Peterson is officially in beast mode, so he could be the game changer.

Stally's Two-Point Pick - @Atlanta over New York Giants

Stally: I don't care how many late season pushes they put together to sneak into the playoffs and win a Super Bowl, I just don't think the Giants are that good of a team and I think their standard barely-above-averageness is proven year after year.  I like the Falcons at home, not only because they play so well in the Georgia Dome (6-0 this season), but also because they're the better team.

Austen: Unsurprisingly I am taking the Giants. This is the time of year they are in full form. This is the same Falcons team that the Giants shut out in the playoffs last year. The Falcons inability to run the ball is going to kill them. Third and long against this Giants defensive front might be a quarterback's worst nightmare. 

Stally: Whoa, whoa, whoa.  The Falcons scored two points against the Giants in the playoffs last year...

Austen's Two-Point Pick - Cleveland over @Washington

Austen: No RG3 makes this a completely different team. The Browns have been pretty solid all year long and they are getting better. Their defense could really give Kirk Cousins problems. Cousins is a lot better than people give him credit, but this is a big stage to fill in for the most explosive rookie of all time. I'll side with the 30-year-old rookie quarterback.

Stally: I took the Redskins, but I did move them down significantly in confidence when it was announced that RG3 was officially out.  I'll still give them the advantage at home against a mediocre Browns team, but it comes down to Cousins stepping up.

Stally's One-Point Pick - @San Diego over Carolina

Stally: This one is a total snoozer.  Ultimately, I'll take the Chargers at home over the Panthers on the road.  Cam Newton withstanding, San Diego has a little more talent than a sad Carolina team, so that helps also.

Austen: Right now, if I was the Chargers management, I trade my entire roster for Cam Newton. Newton has gotten a lot of crap this year, but he really has been pretty good all year. Phillip Rivers is terrible. This offensive line is one of the worst I have ever seen, and I'm a Jets fan. I'll side with Newton in this one.

Austen's One-Point Pick - New York Jets over @Tennessee

Austen: Both these teams stink. I think the Titans terrible run defense will be their downfall. The Jets have the better defense, and both have equally dysfunctional offenses.

Stally: The Titans are frustratingly inconsistent, but if they show up to play, I like them more than a grounded Jets team that looks stuck at the terminal.  The game being in Tennessee gives me enough confidence to take that lousy team over the other lousy team.

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