Saturday, January 12, 2013

The Battle for Divisional Pride

Aaron Rodgers will need to shake off a 49ers team
that beat his Packers in Week 1. (Getty)
Stally: Ciao, NFC East.  I said all year your division was weak, despite Austen's clamoring that the Giants played in one of the toughest divisions in football.  Well, we have seven of the eight divisions still represented as we look at the NFL's Divisional Playoff round, and the NFC East isn't among them.

Point: me.

The NFC West is the lone division with two teams remaining, which should make me feel a little better as a Patriots fan that New England went just 1-3 against it.  However, nothing is going to excuse the Week 2 loss to the hapless Cardinals, and if/when New England is stuck going to Denver next weekend, they have only themselves to blame, as that loss was the difference.

Speaking of New England, let's get to the picks:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @New England over Houston

Stally: New England rocked the Texans 42-14 at home on Dec. 10 during Monday Night Football.  However, I'm sure Bill Belichick won't let them forget an eerily similar situation from two years ago.  On MNF, Dec. 6, 2010, the Pats dismantled the Jets 45-3, but lost at home in the divisional round 28-21 a month later.  I don't see that happening again.  The Texans are better than that Jets team, to be honest.  However, they have not been clicking lately and have managed just two touchdowns in three games.  I still think the Texans peaked early and that New England generally comes around later in the season.

Score Prediction: New England 31, Houston 20

Austen: I am obviously not as high on the Patriots as Stally is, but I cannot fault him for taking this matchup. If Andy Dalton had not horribly overthrown a wide open A.J. Green in the end zone, the Texans might not even be here despite outplaying the Bengals in just about every aspect of that game. Tom Brady might get rattled a bit early when facing J.J. Watt, but I cannot see the Patriots putting up less than 30 points when all is said and done. To me, the Texans are the more talented team, but it is hard to argue against any team with Tom Brady in the playoffs.

Score Prediction: New England 34, Houston 23

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Denver over Baltimore

Austen: The Broncos are better than the Patriots and the Texans are better than the Ravens. With Knowshon Moreno finally playing like a first-round pick, the Broncos are the most complete team in the NFL. Peyton Manning has been brilliant, and has the best offensive line in the league to go along with the best young wide receiver duo in the NFL. Throw in one of the best defenses in the league and this game could quickly become a blowout.  Have I mentioned that I hate Joe Flacco, especially on the road?

Score Prediciton: Denver 35, Baltimore 20

Stally: Yes, you have mentioned that, and I can't disagree with you.  I'm obviously very confident in the Patriots, but I do understand why most people would pick this game first.  The Broncos blew out the Ravens in Baltimore on Dec. 16 by a score of 34-17.  It was 31-3 at one point, so even that score was closer than the game.  I think the Ravens always have the ability to be dangerous, as they're a veteran team that is used to big playoff games, but I do think the Broncos are the clear favorite.

Score Prediction: Denver 30, Baltimore 17

Stally's Four-Point Pick - Seattle over @Atlanta

Stally: I've been waiting to pick against Atlanta in the divisional round since about the time they snuck by the Panthers 30-28 in Week 4 or the Raiders 23-20 in Week 6.  (Both of those games were at home.)  The Seahawks are quite simply a better team right now.  They've won six in a row, they have a defense that can shut down the Falcons one-dimensional, pass-only offense, and they have a quarterback who is a nightmare to defend.  If Pete Carroll isn't going to have his team excited to kick butt in this one, then he's a changed man since he left my Trojans.

Score Prediction: Seattle 34, Atlanta 23

Austen: I was really hoping that Stally would let this one fall to me. In my mind, these are the two best teams in the NFC right now. I would take the Falcons over both the Packers and 49ers, but their top-seed actually landed them the most dangerous team in the playoffs right now. The Falcons run defense is their Achilles' heel and boy oh boy are the Seahawks capable of running the ball. The Seahawks are down their top pass rusher, Chris Clemons, and Marshawn Lynch has a sprained ankle, but even still I think they have to be favored over the Falcons. The Seahawks have the corners to shut down the Falcons' passing game. The league has changed so much that the Seahawks defense will be daring the Falcons to try to run the ball to get them out of their game plan. Michael Turner is a shell of his former self and Jacquizz Rodgers is a role player at best. It kills me to say it, but Tony Gonzalez is going to have to retire without a single playoff victory on his resume.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Falcons 17

Austen's Four-Point Pick - Green Bay over @San Francisco

Austen: This was the only game that I really had no idea who to pick. I think this all comes down to the health of the Packers' receivers. Green Bay's offensive line is atrocious, but if Aaron Rodgers has three out of four of his top receivers playing at close to 100%, I think the Packers win a close one. That is a big if, but I will side with the quarterback who has already won one Super Bowl over a guy that has yet to hit double digit starts.

Score Prediction: Green Bay 28, San Francisco 20

Stally: I'm having so much trouble with this one that I still don't really know who to take.  I keep wavering back and forth between the 49ers well balanced offense and superior defense and the Aaron Rodgers led Packers.  I'm tossing home-field out the window, because I think that either of these teams are just as capable of winning on the road.  Ultimately, I'll take the 49ers because I like the balance that they show on both offense and defense.

Score Prediction: San Francisco 23, Green Bay 20

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Wild Card Recap

Both OXen held serve in each of their two games, picking up the 12 points from the games they selected.  Austen had Green Bay and Seattle, Stally had Baltimore and Houston.  However, neither went perfect in the Pick 'Em, as they disagreed on three of the four games.  Stally went 3-1 missing just the Redskins and their hobbled QB Robert Griffin III on Sunday evening.  Austen went 2-2, sweeping the NFC and whiffing on the AFC.

The most accurate score prediction went to Stally, who had the Ravens over the Colts 24-17 compared to the final of 24-9, just an eight-point total difference.  Austen correctly predicted Seattle by 10 over Washington, but had the score at 38-28, far away from the 24-14 final.

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