Sunday, October 19, 2014

Week 7: Predicting an Upset?

The trade of Percy Harvin did nothing to
ruin the OXen's confidence in the Seahawks.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
Seattle over @St. Louis

Austen: I like the Seahawks offense to get back on track. That means a lot of Beast Mode. The Rams should be shaking in their boots.

Stally: This is a mismatch of talent, that's for sure.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over New York Jets

Stally: Taking the Patriots over the Jets in New England with the utmost confidence is a Stubborn OXen Blog tradition.  I couldn't see anyway that the Pats lost, and even as the game unfolded, I just didn't see it happening.  It turns out I was right!

Austen: Well I "had" this game with the second most confidence, but at least my Jets put up a fight. It is interesting to think how this game would have turned out if the Jets had Percy Harvin for this game...

Stally: If they did, then the team wouldn't even have locker room chemistry, which about all they got right now.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Dallas over New York Giants

Austen: Stally is going to be fuming that I got this before him, but Dallas is simply crushing it on both sides of the ball right now. In a week where there should be a lot of close games, I will unquestionably take possibly the best team in the league against a team who just got shut out by the Eagles and lost their best offensive player for the year.

Stally: I wish you'd stop throwing around superlatives on teams.  It's only been seven weeks since the Cowboys went from "worst team" to "best team".  The Cowboys are good, yes.  I would have taken them here as well.  Welcome the bandwagon, but you'll have to walk past my first-class seat to sit with the common folk.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
Arizona over @Oakland

Stally: The Cardinals are a good football team!  Good enough, in fact, to lead what many might consider the best division in football.

Austen: I have the Cardinal high as well this week, but something about this game smells like an upset. Maybe Carson Palmer remember how bad he was in Oakland and plays down to that level? However, the Cardinals are by far the better team, so I cannot really disagree with the pick.

Austen's Six-Point Pick
@San Diego over Kansas City

Austen: Philip Rivers is playing nearly flawless football right now. The offense is churning out yards in the air and on the ground. The defense has been a bit up and down, but they have played extremely well for most of the season. It also helps that the Chiefs do not bring a lot of firepower to town with them. The name of the game is "Stop Jamaal Charles," and I think the Chargers' defensive line will blow up the middle of that KC O-line enough to stuff out the Chiefs with ease. 

Stally: I have the Chiefs in an admittedly major upset.  Kansas City is a tough, physical team, and San Diego will need to return to Earth one of these weeks.  I like this a potential upset.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Buffalo over Minnesota

Stally: I've been impressed by Buffalo's defense, and when I consider that the Vikings have scored 10 points or less in four of six games, I like it even more.

Austen: This is probably the most confidence Stally (or I) have ever put in the Bills winning. There is a good reason for that. The Bills have been playing solid football on both sides of the ball, but they are led by an outstanding defense. The Vikings, on the other hand, are led by a rookie quarterback who looks like he needed a year to get up to speed in the NFL. 

Austen's Five-Point Pick
@Baltimore over Atlanta

Austen: I talked about last week how we often underrate the Ravens. Maybe it is because of a general dislike of the team by the two of us, but I am again breaking the trend. The Ravens offense is clicking and their defense is a solid as ever. There's a good chance this turns into a blowout quick, much like last week. The Falcons have been flat since their trashing of the Bucs on Thursday night football. It also helps the Ravens are a great home team and the Falcons might be the worst road team in the league.

Stally: The Falcons did destroy the Bucs, who are terrible, in Week 3, but I'd contend that Atlanta hasn't truly impressed since a Week 1 over the Saints.  They've gone 1-4 since with that win over Tampa Bay being the only triumph.  I agree that Baltimore is a clear favorite.

Stally's Five-Point Pick
Cleveland over @Jacksonville

Stally: Picking against Jacksonville seems extremely logical every week.  The Browns have been playing like a competent team, which might be the first time I've ever used such a term to describe Cleveland football.

Austen: Stally has officially gone back to back with the Bills and then the Browns. Take note people because this might never happen again. However, I do not disagree with the picks. This just shows how tight most of these matches should be today. Aka: watch football today people.

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Chicago over Miami

Austen: I do not have any real analysis on this one except I think the Bears are the better team. Both of these teams are wildly inconsistent but I think the Bears show up this week in a big way to keep things rolling after a huge win in Atlanta last week.

Stally: If this was in Miami, I might consider it an even game, but I think the Bears are more dynamic.  Chicago should win this one going away.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
@Pittsburgh over Houston

Stally: At 3-3, two of the Texans losses have come against two of the league's better teams (Dallas and Indianapolis), but I'm still not a believer that they're any better than mediocre.  I'd take the home team in this one either way, so I'm going to take Pittsburgh.

Austen: Do I want the team that was just in a dog fight to the end with the Colts, who are one of the best teams in the AFC, or do I want the team that just got thrashed by the Cleveland Browns? The Texans are definitely the better team and I will take them on the road in this one. 

Austen's Three-Point Pick
@Denver over San Francisco

Austen: I simply do not understand the talk of the 49ers being a legit threat in the NFC. They have yet to put a full game together. They were shutout in the second half of the Cowboys game, they allowed the Eagles to stay in the game despite shutting out their offense (no that is not a misprint), it took a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Cheifs in San Francisco, and they started the Rams game by falling down 14-0. And those are just the games they won. Denver is almost unbeatable in Mile-High and I seriously doubt the 49ers prove me wrong.

Stally: I liked the 49ers in this one, but I couldn't figure out why.  I must have hastily made my picks or something.  I agree with Austen's logic that in Denver, the Broncos are the clear favorite.

Stally's Three-Point Pick
@Washington over Tennessee

Stally: The Redskins are not a good football team, but they're better than the Titans and they're at home.

Austen: I have the Redskins but with the least amount of confidence possible. The Titans are terrible, but the Redskins are not exactly a great football team (in fact, they actually have less wins than the Titans). This should be a terrible game to watch. Stay away unless you have fantasy implications (hopefully you are not starting anyone on the Titans).

Austen's Two-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over Cincinnati

Austen: The Bengals are not the same team without AJ Green. That is not all that surprising but the drop off in play for the entire team has been very significant. What was looking like the best team in the AFC has looked lost without their star receiver. On the other side of the field, you have the hottest quarterback in football in Andrew Luck, who looks unstoppable at the moment. I'll take the Colts at home any day.

Stally: I'm surprised that this fell so far.  We both agree that the Colts at home is a pretty solid lock, even against a balanced Bengals team.

Stally's Two-Point Pick
New Orleans over @Detroit

Stally: Matthew Stafford isn't playing well, Reggie Bush will be lucky to play, and Calvin Johnson will not even dress to play.  The Lions best weapon is their offense, and that's not firing as expected right now.

Austen: Did you know that the Lions are the best in the league in just about every major defensive category? I bet you didn't, but it is true. It is their offense that has been lacking, which has been their strength for years now. I like the Saints, but I simply cannot trust Drew Brees right now to not turn the ball over, especially on the road against the best defense in the league.

Austen's One-Point Pick
@Green Bay over Carolina

Austen: I actually have a lot of confidence in the Packers winning this game, so I am not exactly sure how I got this with my last pick but I will take it. Carolina has been up and down. I simply trust Aaron Rodgers more than Cam Newton. Sometimes it is that simple. 

Stally: Green Bay has also been up and down and got lucky to beat the Dolphins last week.  I think Newton's issues are a matter of his injury and he looked far more mobile (like his old self) against Cincy last week, so I think that he's back.  I have Carolina pulling off the upset.

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