Sunday, November 2, 2014

Week 9: A Spooky Week

Derek Carr has been the most impressive rookie quarterback
so far this season, but that has lead to a total of zero wins
for the Raiders, something that will not change today.
Maybe there is something in the air due to Halloween weekend, but the SOB boys took a lot of upset picks this week. There is more disagreement than there has been at any point so far this season. Maybe it is not Halloween, maybe it is just the fact that the parity in the NFL seems to be at an all time high.

Either way, our disagreement usually means there will be a lot of close, very entertaining games to watch this week. That means pay close attention to your televisions today people. Watch and enjoy, but first read our analysis.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Seattle over Oakland

Austen: While the Seahawks have struggled mightily so far this season, they still have enough mojo to crush the only winless team in the league in their own home. Hell, even the Jets took care of business against the Raiders.

Stally: If Seattle doesn't win this one, we can officially consider the title defense null and void.  The Raiders are in the midst of a 13-game losing streak dating back to last year, which includes two (TWO!) losses to the Jets.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Kansas City over New York Jets

Stally: The Jets are 1-7 with their only win, as mentioned, against the Raiders in Week 1.  They've shown some signs of playing inspiring football, and then they lose to a team like the Bills by a score of 43-23 at home.  Kansas City is good at home and should have little trouble.

Austen: With Michael Vick starting his first game for the Jets, I'll give them the smallest amount of hope for winning this game. We all know what Vick can do when he shows up, but it is hard to believe that he is going to do much of anything with this dysfunctional offense. 

Austen's Six-Point Pick
@San Francisco over St. Louis

Austen: If the 49ers lose at home, against the Rams, coming off their bye week, they are officially out of the playoffs. While I still think they end up not making the playoffs, I cannot believe that they are bad enough to falter against a bad Rams team that has been trending further downwards in recent weeks. Remember, their #1 receiver is now out for the year (Brian Quick).

Stally: I have this one here as well.  The 49ers have looked vulnerable at times, but not vulnerable enough to lose to the Rams at home, whom they already beat in St. Louis 31-17.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Cincinnati over Jacksonville

Stally: The return of A.J. Green should help the Bengals offense out a lot, and they are expected to roll over a Jacksonville team with just one win on the season.

Austen: You will not hear any argument from me on this one. Blake Bortles gave them a spark on offense when he took over, but he still makes enough rookie mistakes to think that he really did need a full season on the bench before taking over. 

Austen's Five-Point Pick
New Orleans over @Carolina

Austen: This was another week where I threw in my choice with less than five minutes left before game time. In recent weeks, the Saints have finally been playing up to the level people expected of them this offseason. The Panthers have been maddeningly inconsistent on offense and on defense. Cam Newton is one of the most impressive quarterbacks in the league physically, but he still struggles with accuracy issues. The Saints defense made him stay in the pocket for most of the game and he could not hit his receivers even when he had time and guys were open. This was a poor game all around for the Panthers. 

Stally: I had the Panthers because I like the home team on Thursday Night Football and the Saints were in the midst of a seven-game road losing streak.  This lopsided loss allows us to officially accept the Panthers are a less-than-average team.

Stally's Five-Point Pick
Indianapolis over @New York Giants

Stally: This seems like a talent mismatch on Monday Night Football.  The Giants can be sneaky, but I would expect the Colts to bounce back after an embarrassing loss at Pittsburgh.  After all, Andrew Luck is still their quarterback.

Austen: I have the Colts, but this just feel like a game the Giants find a way to win. There's no logic to that so I had to stick with the Colts and Andrew Luck's arm. Just a gut feeling this game is a lot closer than people think. These are two of the most clutch quarterbacks in the league, so hopefully it is a fun one to watch. 

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Cleveland over Tampa Bay

Austen: I cannot believe how much confidence I have been putting in the Browns week after week, but I like the way they are playing. More importantly, they keep playing the dregs of the NFL. The Browns need to win this game in order to stay alive in a shockingly competitive AFC North. 

Stally: The Browns have played the Jaguars, Raiders, and Bucs in the last three weeks, and they're only 1-1 going into this one.  If they can't pull this one out, the Browns are every bit as bad as they've been in years past, but we both expect better.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
San Diego over @Miami

Stally: The Chargers are a much better team than the Dolphins.  I'm surprised Miami is considered the favorite in this one.

Austen: The Chargers have not won in Miami in something ridiculous like 20+ years. I have to think that streak ends today, but I would not have taken them so high. The Chargers are dealing with a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball and cross country trips aways leads to teams playing below their potential. 

Austen's Three-Point Pick
@Pittsburgh over Baltimore

Austen: I am very surprised that the Steelers are the underdog after Big Ben's historic performance last week. Maybe I am overreacting to one game, but if Martavis Bryant can play consistently anywhere near the level he played against the Colts, the Steelers have yet another late round steal. The rookie is the big, fast target that everyone thought Markus Wheaton could be. This is an element to their offense they have missed with the departure of Mike Wallace.

Stally: I have the Ravens.  It seems like the road team tends to play inspired football in this rivalry.  I expect it will be a three-point game, as always, regardless of who wins.

Stally's Three-Point Pick
@Minnesota over Washington

Stally: This is a tough one to pick.  The Redskins actually looked competent by upsetting Dallas on the road last Monday, but I'm not buying in yet.  I don't really even care about the return of RG3, as he's looked average since his injury two years ago.  I'll give the Vikings the nod since they're at home.

Austen: I have the Redskins due to the fact that their defense has been playing very well in recent weeks and they are coming off a huge win against the Cowboys. Does RG3's return derail the momentum that they have going right now? We will find out but I like Washington's odds. 

Austen's Two-Point Pick
Denver over @New England

Austen: The Broncos have simply played better football all season long than the Patriots have, so it is hard for me to bet against them. They have so much talent on both sides of the ball it will take a flawless game for the Patriots to win this one. That being said, Tom Brady has been flawless in recent weeks and he owns Peyton Manning in head to head matchups so who knows how this one will go.

Stally: I'm going with my homer pick of the Patriots.  New England has always played well at home against Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady looks like he did in his prime.  The Pats will be a stiff challenge for a Broncos team looking to affirm their dominance in the AFC.

Stally's Two-Point Pick
@Dallas over Arizona

Stally: This was a tough pick, and I went with the Cowboys based on a belief that Tony Romo might play.  He won't, so that will make it a taller task to beat the upstart Cardinals, but the Cowboys should pound the rock with DeMarco Murray.  That will allow the home team to control the clock and the game.

Austen: I believed the Cardinals would win this one whether or not Romo played. They have the best record in football and that is no accident. They have a real tough road ahead of them and they need to win this game in order avoid falling out of the playoff race (yes, despite having the best record in football). 

Austen's One-Point Pick
@Houston over Philadelphia

Austen: Arian Foster is playing out of his mind right now. If he puts together a season or two more like this one, he is going to be one of the few running backs to enter the Hall of Fame during an era of running back by committee. All from an undrafted player. Now I'm getting side tracked. Foster leads this offense and JJ Watt is the best defensive player in the league. That is too much for the Eagles to handle. Nick Foles has been inconsistent at best. 

Stally: I also have Houston.  Philadelphia showed they're not that elite with a loss in Arizona last weekend, and the Texans have been in most every game they've played.

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