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| Sorry, Elf, no Tim Tebow this week ... |
Before Sunday's publish time, we already know that the Eagles and Giants have been so naughty that they've given away the division to the now 8-7 Redskins. Elsewhere in the NFC, the Falcons will need to reverse a 38-0 outcome against the undefeated Panthers just to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Oh, how naughty Atlanta has been since a 5-0 start!
In the AFC, the Jets and Colts will be fighting for their playoff chances in games that neither are favored to win. A Jets loss could push the Steelers and Chiefs through to the playoffs should they take advantage of games in which both are favored by double-digit points. And, in a game that can't be taken lightly, the Broncos and Bengals will send their backup quarterbacks at one another in a game that will likely be the difference between hosting either the Chiefs or Steelers in the Wild Card Round (ouch!) or earning a bye through to the Divisional Round.
Here's who we've picked for this week's games:
Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Kansas City over Cleveland
Stally: The Chiefs are on an eight-game winning streak and that hardly seems in jeopardy at home against a team that's one Titans win away from the first-overall pick in next year's draft.
Austen: Words cannot explain how bad the Browns are. They do not do anything well, and a road game against one of the hottest teams in the league all adds up to bad things for this franchise.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
Pittsburgh over @Baltimore
Austen: The Steelers have already lost to the Ravens once, and it took Michael Vick quarterbacking this team and Mike Tomlin's worst game as a coach. That is not going to happen. Add in the fact the Ravens are going from starting Joe Flacco to someone worse than Matt Scaub, their chances have to be slim to none, closer to none.
Stally: It's hard to see Pittsburgh letting its playoff chances dim against a Ravens team with more or less no healthy first-team starters. But, stranger things have happened in rivalry games. I was surprised Austen ranked this one above the Kansas City game.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Seattle over St. Louis
Stally: The Seahawks have won five straight since being an ugly 4-5. They can't let off the gas now, as the difference between the five-seed and six-seed is likely a Wild Card trip to Washington (yay!) versus a trip to Green Bay (oh no!).
Austen: Much like the Steelers, the Seahawks have already lost once this season against the terrible division rival (the Rams). It ain't happening on their home turf.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick
Carolina over @Atlanta
Austen: While the Panthers do not have much to play for, their backups might be able to knock off the Falcons. This has to be the worst team in the history of the league that started 5-0. Derek Anderson might have a solid day closing out this game.
Stally: It used to be that the Falcons were better at home than on the road, but they're .500 in both splits this season (3-3 vs. 4-4). They won't reverse a 38-0 loss from two weeks ago, especially since the Panthers still need one more win to clinch the top seed.
Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Buffalo over Dallas
Stally: The first four picks were easy. It gets pretty tough the rest of the way, so I'm going to go against a Dallas team starting its third-string quarterback (Or is it fourth? Does the departed Brandon Weeden count?), especially since the top target, Dez Bryant, appears to have been shut down for the year with injuries.
Austen: If Rex Ryan loses this game, he should be fired. All this team has left to play for is pride, but Ryan needs to get his players back on his side, as he is a "players' coach." His team is falling apart around him and he needs to right the ship to give his franchise some hope for 2016.
Austen's Six-Point Pick
@Arizona over Green Bay
Austen: Did you know the Packers are 26th in the league in passing offense? Aaron Rodgers is not carrying this team the way people expected him to. This is a very sub-par team even with the best quarterback in football. The Cardinals are the most well rounded team in the league, and they are at home. They need to lock up the 2nd seed in the NFC, so they have a lot to play for.
Stally: As I just mentioned, this week's picks are tough. Putting this many against Green Bay might seem crazy, but when compared to the rest of the slate, taking Arizona and its eight-game winning streak at home is a logical pick here.
Stally's Five-Point Pick
@Detroit over San Francisco
Stally: It's going to be a season of what could have been for the Lions. They buried themselves by starting 0-5, saw a three-game winning streak end on a marginal call and crazy Hail Mary from Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, and sit at 5-9, having played better the second half of the season. For the 49ers, it's a season that never was, and it won't get going now.
Austen: Neither of these teams are better than bad (aka they are both bad). Who knows who will show up, but siding with the home team is not a terrible choice.
Austen's Five-Point Pick
@Minnesota over New York Giants
Austen: The Redskins have locked up the division so the Giants are out of the playoffs. Their best player is suspended for this game. Their coach is probably retiring after this season. Meanwhile, the Vikings are fighting for a playoff spot and are at home. Seems like an easy choice to me.
Stally: We know the Vikings are better than the Giants. The Vikings have done a great job at beating the teams that they're better than and losing to the teams that they're not. The problem is that the Giants don't usually take that into account. They've played New England and Carolina as well as any team in the league, but even taking out those two losses, they've gone 6-6 against a paltry schedule (the best team they've played is the 9-5 Jets). Might as well do what Austen did and stick with the consistency of Minnesota beating lesser teams.
Stally's Four-Point Pick
@Denver over Cincinnati
Stally: I don't like the idea of AJ Mccarran trying to earn his stripes against the Broncos' stout defense. The Bengals are a solid team, but asking them to win at Denver with a backup QB is a tall task.
Austen: Something is not right with the Broncos. I'm not sure what it is, but the Bengals are the better all around team, with or without Andy Dalton. I'll take the Bengals riding their running back duo to a low scoring victory.
Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Tampa Bay over Chicago
Austen: There is not much to like about either of these teams, but the Bucs' have more balance on offense and defense. I'll take the slightly better team at home.
Stally: Tampa Bay is 1-3 in its last four games with losses to the Colts, Saints, and Rams. I have them with marginal confidence because they're at home, but I'm not really sure if they're good enough to beat most teams. I think Austen over picked this one.
Stally's Three-Point Pick
New England over @New York Jets
Stally: Several weeks ago, I marked this as a game that could have ended New England's undefeated run if it got this far. But, most pundits seem to be giving the Jets a chance in this one. Are they really that good? (We'll find out.) More importantly, doesn't discrediting the Patriots usually get Belichick and Brady and Co. fired up to romp the opponent. Sure, the Jets could put up a fight. Or the Pats could get mad and win by 20+ ...
Austen: Surprise, surprise I am taking my Jets. This is more of a Jets' hubris thing, and more based off the fact that the Patriots are missing so many crucial players on both offense and defense. It should be a tight game either way (like it was in Foxborough earlier this season).
Austen's Three-Point Pick
Houston over @Tennessee
Austen: No Marcus Mariota, no more wins for the Titans. Mariota is already the heart and soul of this team, and they are by far the worst team in the league without him.
Stally: If Houston clinches the division in this game, it will be in pretty ugly fashion. Both teams will roll with their backup quarterbacks, so don't expect much offense. That will play in to the Texans hands as they've given up 10 points or fewer in five of seven wins this season.
Stally's Two-Point Pick
@Oakland over San Diego
Stally: This would have been a more thrilling overtime win for the Raiders if it wasn't a 6-8 team beating a 4-10 team while Santa Claus was doing his rounds in America. I got it right, that's all I care about.
Austen: This was a lot closer than I thought. Give it to the Chargers, they are still fighting. They are just a very very bad football team.
Austen's Two-Point Pick
Washington over @Philadelphia
Austen: I started Kirk Cousins' in two fantasy leagues this week. That's what I think of the Eagles defense. And they let him throw for over 350 yards and four touchdowns. Why does Chip Kelly still have a job?
Stally: Austen and I have gone in two different directions with our confidence points at this point. Austen put down seven on Washington. I only had enough confidence in them to put down one. While I got the pick correct, the 38-24 final shows that even in a predicted loss, the Eagles have managed to disappoint my expectations for them.
Stally's One-Point Pick
@New Orleans over Jacksonville
Stally: Both teams are 5-9. New Orleans is at home. That is all.
Austen: Agreed.
Austen's One-Point Pick
Indianapolis over @Miami
Austen: There is simply too much to dislike about this Dolphins team. They don't know how to give the ball to their best player (aka Lamar Miller). They cannot stop anyone of defense. And their high-paid quarterback has failed to reach even the lowest of expectations this season. That being said, the Colts are very bad as well. This is a game to stay away from if for some horrible reason it is being broadcast in your area.
Stally: I know the Dolphins are bad, but the Colts haven't managed more than 16 points in any of the last three games (all losses). I'll take Miami at home.
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