Saturday, January 16, 2016

Divisional Round: The League's Elite Eight

A win at Seattle earlier in the year had Cam Newton and
the Panthers pointing toward their Super Bowl chances.
In recapping the Wild Card Round, the Packers surprised both of us.  After stinking their way through the second half of the season and losing the NFC North, they bounced back in a big way and wiped out the helpless Redskins.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks struggled mightily on offense in the Minnesota cold, barely winning on a horribly missed field goal.  Cincinnati scorned Austen's support by taking two 15-yard penalties to set up Pittsburgh's game-winning field goal and make Stally look smart.  The week started with little surprise as the Chiefs showed the terrible Texans to the exit door to a tune of 30-0.

This week will be similarly difficult to pick, as the NFL is now down to its best eight teams with no clear front runner to win the Super Bowl.  Here are our picks:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Arizona over Green Bay

Stally: The Packers certainly proved us wrong last week, but they lost 38-8 in Arizona in Week 16.  The Cardinals looked pretty miserable in a Week 17 loss to Seattle, but had won nine straight before that and finished at an impressive 13-3.  The bye week should have been enough for the Cards to regroup and get ready to better the Packers again.

Austen: Aside from the Panthers, the Cardinals are the most well rounded team left in the playoffs. The Packers have had one good showing against one of the worst teams teams in the playoffs. Carson Palmer is going to tear this Packers defense apart, extending the best season of his career. 

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Denver over Pittsburgh

Austen: No Antonio Brown. No DeAngelo Williams. And a banged up Big Ben. That's a lot to overcome for a sixth-seed squad. Throw in the fact they are playing against the best defense in the league and you have some serious issues. I don't care who starts for the Broncos at quarterback. The Broncos defense is going to score more points than either of these offenses. 

Stally: I can't talk myself out of Pittsburgh in this game.  I want to, and I've tried to, but the Steelers proved to be the better team, by winning Week 15 at Denver.

If Big Ben plays and can distribute the ball, he still has weapons to catch the football even without Antonio Brown.  In fact, one of the reasons I thought the Steelers could be the favorite in the AFC was because of the amount of weapons they had.  Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are both very strong WRs and could shoulder a lot of the load.

I'm sticking with the Steelers despite the injuries, especially since Peyton Manning has looked in need of retirement this season.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
@New England over Kansas City

Stally: New England's success in the playoffs will depend on the team's health.  Tom Brady is the only player on the offense to have started at the same position the entire season, and the injuries showed late in the year, as Brady had little time to throw the ball and few options when he did.  The bye week did the team well and Julian Edelman is expected to be back at wide receiver.

The Chiefs will be a formidable opponent, having won 11 in a row, but they were 1-5 before that run and preyed on many bad teams during the streak.  If New England can put up points against a stout Kansas City defense (and it should with key players returning to health), the Patriots will score enough to beat a conservative offense with Alex Smith at QB.

Austen: This is going to be a very close game. The Chiefs' defense will keep them in the game, but Jeremy Maclin's health is a huge issue for this team. I'm sticking with the Chiefs but Tom Brady is never any easy opponent, no matter the injuries around him. 

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Carolina over Seattle

Austen: I love the way this Seahawks team fought last week in the worst possible weather. However, they should have lost to a mediocre Vikings team. They lost to the Rams twice, one time being in the all too recent past. The Panthers are unquestionably the best team in the NFL. Ted Ginn's health is a huge question mark as their wide receiver group is one of the worst in the NFL. Getting Jonathan Stewart back is a huge boon for the run game and should carry them to their 16th win of the season. 

Stally: There's a strong possibility that the winner of this game could end up as the Super Bowl champion.  It's a very difficult call, but I agree with Austen.  The Panthers went 15-1 this season, which included a win in Seattle (never an easy place for a victory).  The Seahawks have the talent and experience to pull off the road win in this one, but I can't go against the Panthers, who proved to me during the regular season that they're the league's best team.

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