Super Bowl XLVI: Who Wins?

Tom Brady and Eli Manning will play
big roles in determining the winner.

Stally: The Patriots win this game because...

Two words: Tom, Brady.

Even as a diehard Jets fan (except he's apparently also a Giants fan), Austen will admit that Brady is the best quarterback ever to play the game.  That's obviously not something with which I'm going to argue, as I've had the privilege of watching him lead my team to what will be its fifth Super Bowl in his 11 seasons.

At the start of Brady's playoff career, he was unstoppable as he and coach Bill Belichick went a perfect 9-0 on the way to three Super Bowls.  However, he hasn't been quite the same since.  Statistically, he's had better seasons and set the record for most touchdown passes in a season with 50.  He also led his team to an 18-0 record that same 2007 season, but lost to these Giants in an embarrassing 17-14 stumble in Super Bowl XLII.
Despite the amount of film study his does and the amount of criticism and demand he puts on himself, he's still never watched the tape of that game.  In fact, most of us Patriots fans had tried to block out, but the clips of Eli Manning's inexplicable mobility and David Tyree's dumb luck catch on 3rd-and-a-mile have come back heavily into our lives in the past two weeks.

That's ok.  It's time to move on from that traumatic experience.  Four years later, there's no better way to do that than making the first Super Bowl appearance since that terrible day against the same team that beat New England then.  It's time to wash away the pain and nobody knows that better than Tom Brady.

Brady was embarrassed more than anyone else by that loss, as it was his record setting offense that stumbled with just 14 points.  Brady is one of the most competitive players to ever play the game and I don't care if Eli Manning and his offense puts up 45 points, there's no way I can see Brady letting this game slip through his fingers the way he and the offense did four years ago.

Austen: The Patriots won't win this game because...

A lot of words.

The reason I love football so much is because it is one of the few sports in the world that is truly a team sport. Stally should know this because it was once a team mentality that helped the Patriots to one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history when they defeated the Rams in 2002. Tom Brady then became one of the best quarterbacks in the league and the Patriots replaced the Rams as the greatest show on turf (or grass) on the way to winning two more Super Bowls. 

Then in an ironic twist, the Patriots played the role of the Rams in their loss to the Giants only six years after their rise to legendary status. It was the Giants who were the underdog in every single playoff game they were in, and that is what brought them together as a team to beat the big bad Patriots. 

Stally believes that Tom Brady will be the difference in this game and guarantee the Patriots a fourth Super Bowl in ten years. However, I believe the Super Bowl will be won by the better team, not the better quarterback, and that is why I see the Giants again toppling the favored Patriots.

The Giants will win this game because...

The Giants have everything that a championship team needs. They have an elite quarterback in Eli Manning, a great young offensive line, a plethora of explosive receivers, and a defense that has improved every week at both stopping the run and the pass. This team was built by one of the best General Managers in the league, Jerry Reese, and is always extremely prepared for every matchup thanks to the most under-appreciated coach in the league, Tom Coughlin. 

Eli may not be Tom Brady, but no one including Brady has been more clutch in 2011. He has put the entire team on his back and carried them all season long. Eli is the main reason that they have gotten this far. He is helped by an unexpectedly productive receiving corps led by Hakeem Nicks and undrafted second year player Victor Cruz. Both of them are extremely dangerous after the catch and continuously give defensive coordinators fits. Hakeem Nicks missed the Week 9 matchup against the Patriots, so I think he will be hungry to make up for some lost time. 

When both are healthy, Ahmad Bradshaw (who also missed the Week 9 matchup) and Brandon Jacobs are a great one-two punch in the running game and can wear down any defense. Both are solid pass protectors so the Patriots defense has to be ready to defend both the run and pass whenever they are in. 

The Patriots defense has had trouble stopping some of the worst offenses in the league (look at games against the Jets and Bills), so the Giants offense looks to have a very productive day.

Stally will say that none of that matters because Brady will outscore the Giants no matter how bad his defense plays, but he is forgetting that this improved offense only managed to put up 20 points at home earlier this season. And since then, the Giants' defense has only improved and gotten healthier. 

The Giants' have the best defensive front in the NFL and they should pressure Brady early and often. The Giants also have very physical defensive backs who will show the Patriots a lot of press coverage, knocking their receivers off their routes. The Patriots' offense relies on timing and precise routes so this coverage forces Brady to stand in the pocket longer than he wants, giving those Giants' pass rushers time to get to the quarterback. 

The Patriots' tight ends create mismatches all over the field, but the Giants have the players to matchup with these guys and at least slow them down. The Giants have three solid safeties in Kenny Phillips, Anttrel Rolle, and Deon Grant, as well as linebacker Jacquian Williams, who all will be responsible for covering these tight ends. While none of them are outstanding players, they at least give the Giants the ability to mask their coverages in order to try to confuse Brady. 

While I am not saying that the Giants are going to shut down Brady and his tight ends, they at least have the ability to matchup with them, while the Patriots' defense is completely overmatched against the Giants' offense. 

The Giants are a more solid team as a whole than the Patriots, which is why they should come out on top in this one. Brady is good enough to take over this game and win it single handedly should the Giants falter early, but he will have to be near perfect in order to make up for his team's defensive ineptitude. Brady better finally watch the game tape from their last Super Bowl because he needs a shot of humility in order to understand why he has lost to the Giants the last two times they have played. 

Stally: The Giants won't win this game because...

Just one word on this one: attitude.

While I try to ignore much of the media circus that leads up the Super Bowl, I couldn't help but notice how much Giants players, fans and web staff wanted talk about how much New York was going to win by.  Heck, the team even posted their championship splash page last night!  (Yes, I'm sure it was a mistake, but only contributes to my belief that the Giants are flat out cocky.)

It almost feels like a role reversal from four years ago, where the Giants are expecting to show up, pass all over the Pats, pound Tom Brady into the ground, and raise a trophy.  News flash provided by the 2007 Patriots: it's not that easy.

While Austen criticized me for thinking that it wasn't a team game, I actually feel quite the opposite.  It's just that Tom Brady is simply the heart of the team.  When Brady is on, he makes everyone else around him better; when he's not, the team struggles to find a rhythm.  This year, he seems focused and ready, and the team as a whole is taking a better approach than the Giants.  I even notice this among the fan bases.

Whereas the Giants are already marketing their championship gear and practicing their Disneyworld lines, the Patriots are talking about how special it is to have the opportunity to play in the game.  They, along with fans, realize that this is why we play (or cheer) and that tonight's game is going to be a fun experience to go after a championship.

Unlike four years ago, where we forgot to enjoy the experience, and ultimately, didn't enjoy the experience. New England, as a whole, is ready for four great quarters of championship football.  If you don't believe that the Patriots are focusing on enjoying the game, just look at Bill Belichick, who actually cracked a smile this week!

I just don't think the Giants have the attitude to compete with that.  When the game gets close in the final 10 minutes, the Patriots will have been mentally preparing for that final push for two weeks, whereas New York has just assumed it's going to come in and walkaway with a multiple touchdown rout.

This is the National Football League and teams don't make it this far if they aren't great.  New England is confident, yes, but it's not over confident like New York.  That mentality will be the determining factor in winning Super Bowl XLVI.

Austen: Do not think for a second that a Tom Coughlin team will come out flat and unprepared in a game of this magnitude. The Giants' players did not post their championship gear on the website, and I know it was not a move made by Coughlin. The players have nothing to do with this and I do not think something like that will distract them from concentrating on preparing for this game. 


This game could go a lot of ways for many different reasons so it should be a great game to watch, unless you are a Jets, Eagles, Ravens, or 49ers fan.

Predcitions (16 points)

Stally: New England 30-27
Austen: New York 34-28