Super Bowl Coin Toss

Will we see a lot of this in Super Bowl XLVI or will the
Patriots' quick pass offense keep Tom Brady upright?

Stally: Tomorrow, people will bet on everything, including the Coin Toss.  However, if you know which OXen to listen to (hint: probably the one that's missed only two of ten playoff games as opposed to the one that went 0-4 in the Divisional Round [that was Austen]), we'll take the need to gamble on anything right out of the equation.

Obviously, I'll be picking my New England Patriots and Austen will be picking his (?) New York Giants (?), so we can skip that formality and discuss where we think the biggest matchups will be and how they will play out.


In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants made Tom Brady uncomfortable and they have similar traits to that defensive front now that they did then.  However, the Patriots offense is totally different.  This isn't a team that looks to hit Randy Moss 60 yards down field for a touchdown.  This offense is built around the quickness and strength of its tight ends and the precision of Wes Welker's short route running. Who wins this battle, Austen?  Can the Patriots offensive line hold up long enough to allow Brady to get the ball out or will it again be a long day for The Great One?

Austen: Stally is completely right when he says this is a totally different Patriots offense than it was last time they were in the Super Bowl. However, the Giants defense is better on every level than it was during the last matchup and that is one of the many reasons that this Super Bowl should live up to the hype. 

Let's start off with the biggest storyline, which is the Patriots' physical offensive line vs. the Giants' fierce pass rushers. The addition of guard Brian Waters has turned the Patriots offensive line into one of the better units in the NFL. Left tackle Matt Light has played better this season than he has in years and looks revitalized. Yet this is one of the older offensive lines in the NFL and they tend to struggle against quick pass rushers, which the Giants have plenty of. 

The Giants defensive line has three elite defensive ends in Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and the ever improving Jason Pierre-Paul. Most defensive coordinators would kill to have just one of these guys on their team, I know Bill Belichick would, and they create quite a problem for any offensive line. What is often overlooked on this defensive unit is that they have a very solid group of defensive tackles as well. The rotation of the pass rushing Chris Canty, the run stuffing Linval Joseph, and the productive veteran Rocky Bernard makes this defense just that more difficult to game plan around. 

I just named six players that the Patriots' offensive line have to study game tape on, and we have not even talked about the Giants' linebackers and defensive backs. To me, the edge has to go to the Giants' defensive line in this one because there are simply too many players who all bring something a little bit different to the table. There is almost no way to game plan around this defensive line because their players' versatility allows them to show you something different every play. 

As I said earlier, the Patriots offensive line is on the old side and is a bit physically overmatched. This rotation of defensive lineman should be able to wear them out as the game goes along and that does not bode well for Brady. Do not be surprised if the Patriots are forced to keep playmaking tight end Rob Gronkowski in pass protection more often than they like, which really limits this passing attack. I know Brady is very capable of getting the ball out quickly to his receivers, but I am not sure that the Patriots will be able to beat the Giants without trying to take some deep shots, which leaves Brady open to some big hits in this one. 

I look forward to hearing Stally say why I am wrong and how Brady will have an answer for everything I mentioned. And Brady just might.

Stally: You're right.  We didn't talk about the Giants linebackers and defensive backs.  You know why?  Because they aren't worth mentioning.  I kind of tipped my hand before, but as I mentioned, this Patriots offense isn't exactly set up to allow the New York defensive line to spend all day beating up Tom Brady, the way they did four years ago.

The argument run stuffing aspect of the interior D-linemen was a waste of type as the Patriots probably won't run the ball too often.  They'll go with the short screen passes to guys like Danny Woodhead and (on a slightly farther down field scale) Wes Welker and will likely put Aaron Hernandez in the backfield from time to time to force the Giants to uncomfortably adapt to the notion he might run or might go out for a screen pass and serve as a 245-pound wrecking ball.

It's also kind of crazy to expect that Gronkowski will be hunkered down in pass protection all day.  If anything, his hanging around on the line a scrimmage just a little longer will make it harder for the Giants to figure out if they can ignore him for the play or if he's going to burn them on a late route.  I could see the check down to Gronkowski over the middle becoming a tough play to defend and one that should gain the Pats 5-10 yards, more if Gronk can carry a three-man load like he usually does.

I certainly have a lot of respect for the Giants defensive line, but I see them getting neutralized for several reasons.  As you mentioned, the Pats offensive line is quite strong, and if Tom Brady runs a short gaining hurry up, I just can't see the Giants getting comfortable to bring the house.

Austen: Remember that the Patriots beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship game without throwing a single passing touchdown so do not think that the Patriots will not try to gash the Giants defense with some runs. They also want to wear down the Giants pass rushers so you might see the Patriots running the ball more than you are used to, much the way they did when they dominated the Jets the first time they played each other this season. 

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The other big matchup in this game is the Patriots' defense against the Giants' explosive passing attack. The Giants have had more 40+ yard plays than any offensive in the league this year (and yes that includes the Packers' seemingly unstoppable offense, which was effectively stopped by the Giants defense). The Patriots defense was one of the worst against the pass and it is hard for me to figure out a way that this defense can stop Eli Manning and his weapons.

How do you think this defense, which has made some strides in recent games, will fare against Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham? Who on this defense can even slow down these guys? How can Bill Belichick think that Julian Edelman even has a shot at defending Cruz, who he will probably be lined up against most of the day? 

Will this defense again be the Achilles heel of this team, like it was in their Week 9 matchup?

Stally: The key to the defense and the area it excelled noticeably against Tim Tebow and the Broncos in the Divisional Round will be the defensive line.  There's no way I can possibly argue that Edelman will be like white on rice against Victor Cruz.  However, like Torrey Smith, who was a ghost for the Ravens, guys like Cruz, and Nicks as well, tend to be downfield threats.

If Eli drops back five steps and unleashes bombs, then it may take the occasional Eli wobbly duck to land in the hands of a Patriots player in order for the Patriots to slow down this offense.  That said, Vince Wilfork is one of the league's best defensive players and, pun intended, is a load for an offensive line to handle.  If he can block up the middle and the Pats improving pass rush can rattle Eli, the prolific passing attack could be neutralized.  To put it simply, the success of the Giants offense will be determined by the battle at the line of scrimmage and the amount of time (or lack thereof) that Manning has to pick apart a weak secondary.

It's also worth noting that while the Patriots ranked 31st in yards against per game, they only ranked 15th in points against during the regular season.  It's a typical bend-but-don't-break Belichick defense and the same kind of mentality that kept forcing the Rams to punt from the offensive 40-yard-line during Super Bowl XXXVI.  If the defense had broken, the Ravens would have run away in the AFC Championship, but this D is good at buckling down and holding the other team out of the end zone.  That could be a big factor against a team like the Giants that doesn't exactly have the size (or strength, I'm looking at you Brandon Jacobs) to make the tight area gains that are needed when you get close to the end zone.

Austen: First of all, Victor Cruz is not just a deep threat. Against the 49ers, he was running underneath routes all day, giving Eli and quick option in the passing game while he was being destroyed by the fierce 49ers' defense. His precise route running was the main reason the Giants were able to leave the Bay Area with a win and I think he poses a problem that the Patriots do not have an answer for. 

The Patriots are likely to double cover Hakeem Nicks for most of the day, and maybe they will be able to bottle him up for most of the day, but that leaves Cruz in single coverage with a lot of room to run around in the middle of the field. Nicks and Cruz might not be Calvin Johnson, but do not underestimate how physical these guys are. They are both over six feet tall and have the strength to easy overpower any and all of the Patriots defensive back, which I guess is not saying that much.

Not only are the Giants receivers more physical than you are giving them credit for, but you are forgetting about the Giants' mammoth tight ends, Bear Pascoe (who had his first touchdown two weeks ago against the 49ers) and Jake Ballard (who scored the game winning touchdown against the Patriots in the regular season). Neither of these guys are anywhere near as good as the Patriots' tight end duo, but one thing they are is physical.

With Pascoe at 6-5 280 pounds and Ballard at 6-6 275 pounds, it would be hard to ask for two better options in the red zone. They are not burning anyone downfield like Hernandez or carrying defenders on their back like Gronkowski, but they get the job done when the Giants need them the most. If Eli puts the ball in the right place, it is almost impossible to stop these from coming down with the ball because of their size. 

Secondly, please let's not compare any part of the Broncos' or Ravens' offenses to the Giants' offense. Tim Tebow does not even warrant a comparison to Eli. Joe Flacco is garbage and always will be. Torrey Smith is still very young and inexperienced, and he still managed to beat the Patriots defense deep numerous times, Flacco just failed to get the ball to him. Anquan Boldin is old and past his prime, and to quote Stally, "looks fat." And do not even get me started on Lee Evans.....

Alright I will start on Evans a bit. Stally says the Patriots defense's mentality is bend but don't break. However, Flacco delivered a pass right into the hands of a wide open Evans at the end of the game. If Evans knew how to catch a ball, which is kind of critical since his job title is a receiver, the Patriots would not even be in the Super Bowl and this defense would be absolutely torn in the media.

Stally might not think highly of Brandon Jacobs, but he ran for over 70 yards and a touchdown the last time these two teams met and that was without Ahmad Bradshaw to help spell him. If the Giants can run the ball efficiently, the Patriots defense has no hope of stopping this offense.