Saturday, October 20, 2012

Week 7: Rest or Recovery

Tom Brady doesn't even need to by stock to own the Jets! (Getty)
Both OXen anticipated a rough week last week.  For all intensive purposes, especially in Stally's case, the only thing they really predicted correctly was that they would both struggle picking any of the games.  Thank goodness the Falcons held onto a three-point win over the Raiders or it might have been the end of this blog due to incompetence.

This week, six teams are on bye.  However, while the number of games appears to be cut down, there are plenty of good ones to watch and that starts with the signature game of this blog.  It comes as little surprise who Stally's middle-finger pick to Austen is this week.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @New England over New York-J

Stally: It's a tradition now!  Both of the last two years, I've had the honor of picking the Patriots first-overall when playing home against the Jets.  It might be arrogance on my part, sure, but I know the Patriots are going to win this game, and I like to remind Austen how much better I consider my team than his.

Austen: Let's break this matchup down by who has the advantage in what areas of the game. Coach: Pats. Quarterback: Pats. Running Backs: Pats. Tight Ends: Pats. Offensive Line: Pats. Run Defense: Pats. Passing Defense: Jets. Special Teams: Jets. This means the only way the Jets win this game is if they manage to really give Brady a rough time in the pocket and Cromartie has a pick or two, and Bill Belichick would have to have an off-week coaching-wise. This is my top pick of the week, but I still think it could turn out to be a fun game to watch.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Houston over Baltimore

Austen: I hated all of these matchups this week, but I just never really like Joe Flacco on the road, especially against such a great defense. Sure they had a bad day last week, but that was against Aaron Rodgers, and he makes everyone look bad. Throw in the fact that the Ravens' D cannot stop the run and are facing Arian Foster without their top three defensive players (Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis, and Lardarius Webb) and you have the chance for a dominating performance by the Texans. I just don't see them losing at home after last week. Look to see them pumped up.

Stally: This was definitely too high to draft against a team that is 5-1, but I do agree that the injury bug has bit the Ravens and that the Texans are the favorites.

Stally's Six-Point Pick - @San Francisco over Seattle

Stally: This was the Thursday night game and I got it right.  It might have been a close 13-6 snoozer, but I knew the 49ers wouldn't lose two straight at home.  I also think that while fun to watch, Russell Wilson really isn't very good and that he couldn't lead an offense to victory at Candlestick ... let's see, his offense managed two field goals.

Austen: They did better than the Jets offense ... Either way, the 49ers were my pick as well, I just can't get a real read on the Seahawks so I pushed this matchup down my list a bit.

Austen's Six-Point Pick - @Oakland over Jacksonville

Austen: Another strange pick by me this high, but I really like the way the Raiders have been playing in their last few games. Their offense should be able to dominate the Jags struggling defense and Jacksonville is pretty bad everywhere they play, but they are one of the worst road teams in the league. So I think an almost 3000-mile trip for this team all but guarantees a loss.

Stally: Once again, I don't agree with the team you picked to win, I just disagree with the amount of confidence you have in that pick.  This is the Raiders that we're talking about here ... the 1-4 Raiders.

Stally's Five-Point Pick - Green Bay over @St. Louis

Stally: Aaron Rodgers would probably say that upon discount double-check, it was determined that Green Bay never left.  Me?  I think they did leave and now they're back!  The Rams aren't the worst team in the league anymore, but if Green Bay gets back to being the best, this is still a mismatch.

Austen: This is definitely a mismatch, but I see this game a lot like when the Rams ended up blowing out the Saints in St. Louis last season. Last year's Saints team and this year's Packers are very similar so while I still think the Packers will win this one, I hesitate to take this one too high. Their defense has been playing on a different level at home and they could really give Rodgers a tough day if they are playing their A-game. Since you never know what you will get with the Packers' defense, this could end up being a lot closer than people think.

Stally: Lol.  The guy that took the Raiders for six points hesitated on taking a team too high ...

Austen's Five-Point Pick - @Chicago over Detroit

Austen: This is the only game left that I had any confidence in. The Bears defense might be scoring more points than the Lions offense right now. They are on an absolute tear and are coming off a bye week. The Bears will be ready for this divisional matchup and I cannot see them losing this one at home. Oh, and I forgot to mention that the Lions pass defense is atrocious and they do not have anyone who even has a prayer of shutting down Brandon Marshall. This could end up being a blow out.

Stally: I agree, I was hoping you'd let this one slip to me with the next pick, because this is a far better choice than anything we have left.  The Bears look like one of the best teams in football and are definitely the most balanced.

Stally's Four-Point Pick - Dallas over @Carolina

Stally: Dallas is good in flashes, Carolina isn't good at all.  I also don't put much stock in home field advantage in Charlotte, as most of its residence have relocated from other parts of the country.  In general, relocation cities, if you will, tend to house fans of America's biggest teams, like the Steelers or the Cowboys.  This crowd should have a lot of Lone Star Fans.

Austen: I just don't trust the Cowboys to do anything but disappoint. Cam Newton is also a wild card. I could see either team blowing the other one out so I have the Cowboys winning this one, but very low on my list.

Stally: Could we please stop talking about how great Cam Newton is?  He's thrown four TDs in five games and rushed for three more.  A quarterback that accounts for just seven touchdowns in five games shouldn't be considered a game-changer.

Austen's Four-Point Pick - @New York-G over Washington

Austen: The Giants cannot lose three straight to the Redskins can they? They are coming off the best win of the year against the 49ers and are at home against a team that they should beat. RG3 is a monster so anything is possible, but the explosive rookie could have some trouble against the best defensive line in football.

Stally: I'm taking the Redskins.  It seems like some teams don't matchup well against others.  For instance, the Patriots don't match up well against the Giants or Ravens.  Likewise, the Giants always seem to get out played by the Redskins, and I have a hard time believing that having RG3 over the likes of Rex Grossman will hurt their chances to win.

Stally's Three-Point Pick - @Indianapolis over Cleveland

Stally: After getting thumped by the Jets in New York last week, it does appear that, as usual, the Colts are far better at home than on the road.  It's hard for me to see them losing to the league's worst team at home, especially since they beat the Packers there two weeks ago.

Austen: I have to agree with Stally on this one. The Colts are the far and away the better team and they are at home. However, if Joe Haden shuts down Reggie Wayne, which he absolutely has the potential to do, Andrew Luck could be in for another rough day.

Austen's Three-Point Pick - @Minnesota over Arizona

Austen: I think Jared Allen is going to win this game for the Vikes single handedly. The Cardinals' offensive line might be the worst in the NFL and Allen should have a field day against them and whatever sub-par quarterback the Cardinals start.

Stally: I also have the Vikings right around here.  The home team should handle the banged up Cardinals.

Stally's Two-Point Pick - @Cincinnati over Pittsburgh

Stally: Ok, so the Bengals just lost to the Browns, but I'm not a big believer in the Steelers at all, and I tend to take the AFC North home team more often than not in the rivalry games.  I'm expecting the Bengals to win this one in a fashion typical to these two teams meeting with a three-point win of some sort.  Let's say 23-20, for the sake of a guess.

Austen: It should be a close game so I did not want to go anywhere near this one. A.J. Green should have a big day, but that's about all I know. He had a huge day last week and they still lost to the Browns! I'm staying away from this one.

Austen's Two-Point Pick - @Buffalo over Tennessee

Austen: The Titans only show up at home. The Bills are only not terrible at home. C.J. Spiller is proving to the league that he is for real. As long as he stays healthy, the Bills should win this game.

Stally: I like the Titans, although I'm not really sure why.  I do think they have several talented players on offense, so if they can get them going, they could beat a Bills team that has been none to impressive.

Stally's One-Point Pick - @Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Stally: I would have taken New Orleans and been perfectly content.   I think this game is more or less a coin-flip and I give the edge to the Bucs being at home.  I also feel like the Bucs are a team on the rise and the Saints are not, so if one team blows out the other, the advantage is with Tampa Bay.

Austen: I have no idea what team will show up for either of these two. The Saints are always good on offense, but are usually pretty terrible on defense. The Bucs have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball so you really never know what you will get. I took a page out of Stally's book and am going to side with the home team. Should be a fun game to watch though.

Austen doesn't have a one-point pick to due to bye weeks.

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