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| Peyton Manning's least favorite thing about being on the Broncos is that he does not get to play the Jags twice a year anymore. |
While a lot of these games seem to be mismatches on paper, I could still see a lot of upsets this week due to the astonishing parity in the league right now. This week will be very telling on how the rest of this season will shake out for a lot of these teams.
Sit back, relax, and enjoy what should be another great week in the NFL!
Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Denver over Jacksonville
Stally: This game tied a record for the highest opening point spread in the history of NFL betting. The Broncos were favored by 28. I'd be surprised if they didn't cover. What a mis-match!
Austen: Peyton Manning is unbeatable right now. The Jags on the other hand have shown no signs of life all season long. This is unquestionably the best team in the league vs. the worst team in the league, and the better team is at home. Wow.
Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@San Francisco over Arizona
Austen: Stally has a soft spot for the Cardinals for some reason, but even he cannot come with a good reason how this team will travel to San Francisco and pull off a win. If this was in Arizona, I would have to think a bit about the outcome more, but it is hard for me to see a way in which the Cards leave the Bay area with a W.
Stally: After looking uncharacteristically bad early in the season, the 34-3 drubbing of the Texans proves the Niners are back! I'm still not sure they're capable of playing from behind, but luckily, they won't have to worry about that against Carson Palmer and the flightless Cardinals.
Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Seattle over Tennessee
Stally: Russell Wilson is undefeated at home, having won his first 10 starts in Seattle. Unlike Austen and my thinking, Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't appear to be as good as Jake Locker at QB for the Titans. Considering his inability to complete passes and Chris Johnson's inability to gain yards on the ground, the Tennessee offense will struggle to score enough points to win on a weekly basis.
Austen: The Titans have the most improved defense in the NFL this year, but even that will not be enough to topple the mighty Seahawks. The Seahawks know that if they secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs, they are almost guaranteed a trip to the Super Bowl, so they will not slow down for a inferior opponent at home. They could win this one big.
Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Kansas City over Oakland
Austen: The Raiders are way better than I expected them to be, but so are the Chiefs, and I thought they would be pretty good. Kansas City is not getting the love that they deserve simply because they are..... well the Chiefs. Jamaal Charles might be the most dynamic weapon in the NFL right now. Alex Smith is not turning the ball over. This defense is one of the best, if not the best, in the league. The Raiders are down their top two running backs, so this matchup just got even harder for them.
Stally: The Chiefs seem to have one of the easiest schedules in the history of the NFL. I still don't really think they're better than about an 8-8 or 9-7 team, but every week, they play another cupcake ... and let's be honest, Andy Reid likes cupcakes! I could see Terrelle Pryor and the Raiders being more tenacious than expected, but I do think Kansas City wins.
Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Chicago over New York Giants
Stally: This was Thursday night's game, and the Bears won, barely. The strategy is pretty clear against the Giants and it seems to be working: let Eli Manning beat himself. (He threw three picks, including a pick-6 on Thursday.) I still have no idea why Austen thinks he's better than Tony Romo; he's not. He stinks and the whole Giants team stinks; they're 0-6.
Austen: Brandon Jacobs' comeback party still was not enough to right this ship. The Giants are just a straight up awful football team right now and I do not think there is much they can do to fix their problems. Everyone is turning the ball over and it just won't stop.
Austen's Six-Point Pick
Green Bay over @Baltimore
Austen: The Packers have one of the most effective rushing attacks in the NFL this year and getting Eddie Lacy back this week will surely help that even further. Losing Clay Matthews for an extended period of time is going to hurt, but this offense is so good that it will be hard for any defense to keep up. That spells trouble for the Ravens who have really struggled on offense this year.
Stally: Are the Ravens good or bad? I don't really know. But, I do know they're worse than the Packers.
Stally's Five-Point Pick
@Houston over St. Louis
Stally: It's time we accept that the Texans aren't very good anymore. They had a great run last year, but they've been mediocre at best ever since the Patriots embarrassed them on Monday Night Football last December. That said, they still have enough talent on both sides of the ball that they should easily be able to beat the Rams at home. If they can't do that, something is really wrong in Houston.
Austen: Sam Bradford is a below average quarterback and Brian Schottenheimer is by far the most overrated offensive coordinator in the NFL. He is making Bradford regress, much the same way he made Mark Sanchez regress in New York. Matt Schaub might be struggling, but I'd still take him any day over Bradford. The Texans are just too talented to lose to a team that is struggling this much.
Austen's Five-Point Pick
Cincinnati over @Buffalo
Austen: Buffalo is not very good to begin with and they are now starting a quarterback from Duke, who most people don't even realize have a football team. Their secondary is still very banged up and I see a big game from A.J. Green, who has struggled as of late.
Stally: The Bengals are much better at home than on the road, as proven by wins over Green Bay and New England at home and a loss at Cleveland. If EJ Manuel were starting for Buffalo, I might go as far as to give the Bills the nod, but I can't see Thad Lewis winning a game in the NFL.
Stally's Four-Point Pick
@Dallas over Washington
Stally: Look: if a quarterback throws for 506 yards and five touchdowns and his team scores 48 points, but he's still forced to run a two-minute drill to try and win the game, and throws his first pick of the night, you can't blame that loss on the QB! Where was the defense!?
The Dallas D might be anything but the Big D, but the Redskins are last in the league in total defense at 440.5 yards against/game. It's gonna be another big night for Tony Romo, and this time, Dallas won't yield 51 points for a loss.
Austen: Firing Rob Ryan and hiring Monty Kiffin might have been the worst personnel move of the entire offseason. Ryan has single handedly turn around an atrocious Saints defense while the Kiffin family continues to ruin teams where ever they go. That being said, the Redskins defense is the worst in the league and their offense gets off to such a slow start every week it is impossible for them to make a comeback in the second halves of their games. This should be a shootout, but you never know with these teams.
Austen's Four-Point Pick
Indianapolis over @San Diego
Austen: I've been saying all year the Colts have a very good chance to win their devision, but five weeks into the season and I can do you Indi fans even better. This is the second best team in the AFC behind the Broncos. They've already beaten the Seahawks, who I still think are better than the Broncos. Their defense has been a big surprise, with Robert Mathis having a defensive MVP start to the year (the dude has almost double digit sacks in just five games). Andrew Luck might already be a top 5 quarterback. If Trent Richardson can get it going, this team is going to be damn near unbeatable.
Stally: The Chargers are going to put up a fight in this one. They're not a bad team, and they're at home. I still think that the deeper Colts team wins, but don't be surprised with an upset.
Stally's Three-Point Pick
@Minnesota over Carolina
Stally: The news of Adrian Peterson's two-year-old son being beat to death is incredibly sad. We picked these games a long time before that news came out, but AP plans on playing, and I imagine he will look very inspired out there. He seems like the kind of guy to put up a big game with his emotions on the line.
Austen: I would be very afraid if I were a Panthers' defensive player. Adrian Peterson is going to be the hardest hitting player on the field this week. I hope he runs for 400 yards. I cannot even imagine what he must be going through.
Austen's Three-Point Pick
New Orleans over @New England
Austen: The Patriots are more vulnerable than they have been in over a decade. They simply are not very good. The Saints, on the other hand, are firing on all cylinders and look to be a legit Super Bowl threat.
Stally: I can't remember a time in recent years that I've had less confidence in the Patriots at home. I thought Rob Gronkowski was going to be back, but apparently, there's some sort of hold up. The only reason I have the Pats is blind homerism and hope that they figure it out.
Austen: Homerism? D'oh!
Stally's Two-Point Pick
Philadelphia over @Tampa Bay
Stally: There are at least a few teams that I think will struggle to win a game this season, Tampa Bay is one of them. They don't have anything going for them, and will likely lose at home to a mediocre-at-best Eagles team. Philly's defense isn't all that strong, but I do think they can handle rookie QB Mike Glennon.
Austen: I think Glennon is going to have a very good game against an awful Eagles defense, but it will be a handful of rookie mistakes that cause the Bucs to fall in this one. On the other hand, it could be Nick Foles making those types of mistakes, so this game is sort of a toss up for me.
Austen's Two-Point Pick
@New York Jets over Pittsburgh
Austen: If Antonio Cromartie misses this game, or even struggles to play a full game, this one will be much more difficult for the Jets to win. He is their best player and if he can shut down half of the field like he usually does, Big Ben will have almost nowhere to go since he is really lacking any playmakers beyond Antonio Brown. Either way, Big Ben is going to be knocked around a lot in this one. It should be a fun game to watch.
Stally: This is why I didn't want to see Rex Ryan get fired. As much as I rag on him and his Jets, he gets more wins out of below average talent than most would. The Jets are playing some decent football, the Steelers are not; this decision isn't hard.
Stally's One-Point Pick
Detroit over @Cleveland
Stally: It's a mystery to me how the Browns have gone 3-0 since trading franchise cornerstone Trent Richardson. It certainly has nothing to do with giving Willis McGahee the lion's share of carries at RB, as he's averaging just 2.6 yards/carry this season. The quarterbacking has been inconsistent between Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer, so that's not it either. Nor is it the defense, that has given up at least 24 points in two of the three wins.
All in all, I can't figure out why the Browns are winning games, and I think that if Calvin Johnson is healthy for the Lions and plays, they'll prevent me from needing to ponder the Browns mysterious success for again next week.
Austen: I've got the Browns at home. They have a fierce crowd and the Lions are mistake prone in situations like this. The Lions should win with or without Megatron, but I do like the Browns' chances in this one.
Austen's doesn't receive a one-point pick due to byes for Atlanta and Miami.
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