Sunday, January 18, 2015

NFL Conference Championship Preview

Tom Brady is a win away from making an
unprecedented sixth Super Bowl start. (Getty)
It's Conference Championship time, and the OXen will be watching the games together at Austen's NYC apartment.  That will be glorious for one and miserable for the other, as the Patriots will either win to bring out Stally's inner-New England arrogance, or they will lose and make for a long, gloomy evening in a cold, wet, foggy New York.

What's more: the two don't even agree on which team will win that game.  Here's a look at the picks for the Conference Championships:

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Indianapolis

Stally: It's far too late to bail on my favorite team now!

The Patriots have been dominant at home this season.  They've also owned Andrew Luck and the Colts since the star QB broke into the league, having beat them by at least 20 points in three meetings over the last three years, including last year's playoffs and in Indianapolis in November.

With that said, you'd think there's a time that the talented young QB will breakthrough against the mastermind of Bill Belichick, but it's a lot of points to make up.  There's a difference between playing better and playing well enough to reverse a series of three-touchdown losses into a win.

The key for Indy, however, will actually be the defense.  In the three recent losses to the Patriots, the Colts have given up at least 42 points in each of the games.  That won't cut it.  Tom Brady and the offense is too dialed in right now to expect that Indy's defense can keep this game competitive.

Score Prediction: New England 35, Indianapolis 24

Austen: I really do not know what the expect out of this game. The Patriots looked very beatable last week against the Ravens and the Colts had a great team win in Denver. The Colts' defense has been maddeningly inconsistent and they are going to have to play their best football of the year in order to give Andrew Luck a chance in this one. The matchup between Rob Gronkowski and LaRon Landry is going to be the matchup to watch. They are both physical freaks and it will be a lot of fun to watch these two enormous human beings beat the hell out of each other. Tom Brady simply does not have the weapons on the outside to win this game without a solid game out of Gronk.

The Colts offensive line had its best game of the year last week against a fierce Broncos pass rush that barely sniffed Luck all game. While the Colts rely heavily on their passing game, they have to be balanced on offense if they have a hope of winning this game. The Ravens ran the ball with a lot of success last week. Boom Herron has added a new element to this already dangerous Colts offense. If he can find some success early, it could be a very long day for the Pats defense. 

Score Prediction: Indianapolis 30, New England 27

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@Seattle over Green Bay

Austen: These two faced off Week One of the season and the Seahawks really manhandled the Packers. It could be more of the same this week with Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy banged up. Both of these guys are going to have to have one heck of a game in order to leave Seattle with a win. Rodgers needs to be sharp and get the ball out quickly against the best defense in football, but he will have zero chance in this game if Lacy cannot churn out some tough yards on the ground. 

The Packers' defense has been the definition of mediocre all season long. While the Seahawks offense does not match the Packers offensive fire power, they are one of the more efficient offenses in the league. Russell Wilson can beat you in so many ways and the best way is to hand it off to "Beast Mode," Marshawn Lynch. If the Seahawks are smart, they will use their power running game to wear down the Pack's defense and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 30, Packers 20

Stally: The Seahawks would be the favorites regardless of the Aaron Rodgers injury, so it will be a lot for the Packers to overcome with him at clearly less than 100 percent.  I was almost correct last week that it would cost Green Bay at home against Dallas, and I just can't see him being effective enough to beat the league's best defense.

The Seahwaks are playing the best football in the league right now (except for maybe New England) and have won seven straight since starting 6-4.  They'll be too much for a Green Bay team that went just 4-4 on the road this season.

Score Prediction: Seattle 24, Green Bay 13

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