Sunday, October 11, 2015

Week 5: The (Quarter) Year of Freeman

This little known running back leads the NFL in
touchdowns through four weeks of the season.
It is hard to believe that we are already a quarter of the way through the 2015 season. It always goes too fast! Lots of surprises so far this year. I mean who saw Devonta Freeman leading the league in touchdowns after four weeks!

As always, the SOBs are here to give you our expectations for the week. Let's see how we do.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
New England over @Dallas

Austen: It makes no difference that this is a road game for the Patriots. The Cowboys just lost to a horribly banged up Saints team that had yet to win a game. This should be an insane blowout. 

Stally: I'm all for picking my Patriots and coming off a bye, it's hard to see them not being ready for Brandon Weeden's Cowboys.  That said, this game is in Dallas, so I wouldn't have taken it first because of that reason.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Atlanta over Washington

Stally: Good team at home versus bad team on the road.  It's hard to see the Redskins challenging the Falcons in this one.

Austen: The Redskins have put some good game tape together, at least compared to what everyone thought they could bring to the table. Still, the Falcons are one of the hottest teams in the NFL and Matt Ryan always brings his A game in Atlanta. Good bet this game does not stay close for long.

Austen's Six-Poin Pick
Arizona over @Detroit

Austen: The Cardinals are the best team in the league. There I said it. The Lions have yet to win a game. Arizona is coming off of a crushing loss to the Rams and I think they come up firing in this one. 

Stally: I have Detroit in this one.  The Cardinals looked vulnerable in the loss to St. Louis, and Detroit is pushing hard but not not managing to win games.  The Lions are due and will win this one at home.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Baltimore over Cleveland

Stally: The Ravens have had some extra time to rest after proving at Pittsburgh that they're a good team that started slowly.  The Browns simply aren't good at all.  Ravens win big.

Austen: If this game was in Cleveland, I would have taken the Browns. The Ravens backed into a win last week against an injury ridden Steelers team. It was Mike Tomlin's worst coaching performance of his career. And the Ravens still almost lost. I think this is a close one that could go either way. 

Austen's Five-Point Pick
@Green Bay over St. Louis

Austen: The Rams are a different team on the road. The Packers are absolutely unstoppable at home. Aaron Rodgers should put together another epically amazing performance, even against a very stout defense. 

Stally: Props to St. Louis for the win at Arizona, but I have a hard time believing it will follow it up in Green Bay.

Stally's Five-Point Pick
Denver over @Oakland

Stally: I'm not high on the Broncos and think their perfect record is far from the sign of a perfect team.  But if they can't beat the Raiders, that's just pathetic.

Austen: In a week with a lot of evenly matched games, I cannot fault Stally for reaching a bit for a road team that has struggled on offense. The Broncos are winning because of their defense, not their offense, for the first time since Champ Bailey was in his prime. I think the Raiders will keep it close, but Peyton Manning has been effective in the fourth quarter closing out games.

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Kansas City over Chicago

Austen: The Chiefs have been one of the biggest disappointments so far this year, but the Bear are probably the worst team in the NFL. Jay Culter gave them some serious life last week, but a road trip to Arrowhead is too much for this team to handle. 

Stally: The Chiefs haven't been consistent this season, but they have much more talent across the board than a struggling Bears team.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
@New York Giants over San Francisco

Stally: The 49ers haven't scored more than 20 points in any of their four games and just 10 total in the last two.  The Giants should take care of them at home.

Austen: Two weeks in a row Stally has used my cross country trip logic to take a home team. It worked well last week, and it should be the right choice once again. It also helps that the Giants are the superior team. 

Austen's Three-Point Pick
@Houston over Indianapolis

Austen: Bill O'Brien's inability to choose a quarterback and stick with them has sunk this team's playoff hopes already. With the massive amount of talent on both sides of the ball, it is shocking that they are 1-4, despite getting Arian Foster back earlier than expected. This was a must win game for the Texans, and they came out flat. They let the oldest starting running back in the league to run all over them. Andre Johnson, who had been nonexistent in the first three week, shredded their defense for two touchdowns. All of this without their far and away best player, Andrew Luck. O'Brien will not be the head coach of this team by the end of the season, and he might not make it to the mid way point.

Stally: I switched my pick from Indy to Houston when I found out Matt Hasselbeck was starting.  This outcome will more or less bury the now 1-4 Texans on the season.  They could have jumped in front of the Colts with a win, now they're two back with the best chance at holding a tiebreaker advantage with a home win having gone out the window.

Stally's Three-Point Pick
Buffalo over @Tennessee

Stally: Buffalo played a horrible, horrible game against the Giants.  Rex Ryan's team usually have strong performances after bad games, so expect the Bills to bounce back in a big way.

Austen: I'm rolling with the Titans coming off their bye week. The Bills have let apposing quarterbacks absolutely tear them apart so far this season, and Rex Ryan's defenses have always struggled against running quarterbacks. I think Marcus Mariota is going to have a big game and sink the Bills early season momentum. 

Austen's Two-Point Pick
@San Diego over Pittsburgh

Austen: Another cross country trip, and another game that should go to the home team. The Chargers are also the better team with Big Ben out of the lineup. 

Stally: The Steelers are the better team, but Michael Vick doesn't look like a competent leader of the offense while Big Ben is out.  I also have the Chargers.

Stally's Two-Point Pick
@Cincinnati over Seattle

Stally: The Seahawks look very vulnerable, and the absence of Marshawn Lynch won't help them at all.  The Bengals, on the other hand, are 4-0 and should keep rolling with a home win.

Austen: I still think the Seahawks are one of the best teams in the league, but so are the Bengals who are getting Aaron Rodgers level production out of Andy Dalton. Dalton always plays better at home and not in prime time, so I have to side with the red hot Bengals. 

Austen's One-Point Pick
@Philadelphia over New Orleans

Austen: The Eagles put on an offensive show in the fourth quarter last week, and still lost to the Redskins. Maybe they are finally putting together an effective offense? Maybe not, but I have more faith in that struggling offense than I do in the Saints defense. 

Stally: Both of these teams are underachievers, but I'll take the Eagles as well, since they're at home.

Stally's One-Point Pick
@Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

Stally: This is a Florida coin flip.  I like the playmakers on Tampa Bay a little more, so I'll go with the home team in this one.

Austen: I like the Bucs a lot less now that Julius Thomas is in the lineup for the Jags. I do not think he will have a huge statistical day on offense, but he makes you play that offense totally differently. This one is a total crap shoot. 

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