Saturday, January 14, 2017

The Literal Divisional Round

Chiefs fans at Arrowhead Stadium could be a difference maker.
There are eight teams remaining in the NFL Playoffs, and fittingly it's all eight divisional champions that will be meeting in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  The Wild Cards are gone after all four home teams won last weekend, so there will be no Cinderella story this year ... unless the Texans win, they'll need a glass slipper to win the Super Bowl, probably two and a pumpkin to turn into their chariot.

Here's a look at who Austen and I are picking this weekend:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
@New England over Houston

Austen: My head literally might explode if the Texans win this game. While they have one of the best defenses in the league, they also have an offense that got shut out the last time these two teams played. You don't win a lot (/any) games scoring zero points. When was the last time the worst quarterback in the league beat an MVP candidate in the playoffs? I don't know but I'd have to guess never. 

Score: New England 41, Houston 13

Stally: I hate to be an over confident Patriots fan, but I can't see a way the Texans win this game.  As The Pats destroyed the Texans with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, just wait until Tom Brady gets to lead this weekend.

Score: New England 31, Houston 13

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Atlanta over Seattle

Stally: I'm sure Austen will try to make a case of why the Seahawks have a chance, so I'll explain why they don't.  Seattle went 7-1 at home, including a win over Atlanta, but just 3-4-1 on the road.  In  the five games they didn't win, they scored 20 points against New Orleans (who didn't have a good defense) and a combined 24 points in the other four outings.  They're a really horrible road offense, and the Falcons have so much offensive power that a strong Seahawks defense just won't be able to hold them in check for the whole game.

Score: Atlanta 27, Seattle 10

Austen: I really am not totally sure why Stally is so anti-Seahawks this year, but ultimately I agree that the Falcons should win this game. However, this is a Seahawks team that turns it on during the playoffs/big games (a Pete Carroll trademark), and they are going against a Falcons team that tends to fade out when it matters most. 

The Falcons are the better team and play much better at home, but their defense is highly suspect and easily could fail them in this one. 

Score: Atlanta 30, Seattle 27

Austen's Four-Point Pick
@Dallas over Green Bay

Austen: This is the best Cowboys team since the triplets rules the NFL and Dallas won three out of four Super Bowls. They are top 5 in scoring offense and scoring defense. That is incredible considering all the injuries, the lack of defensive talent, and being lead by two rookies. I ripped on Jason Garrett for years, but this is one of the best coached teams in the NFL. 

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but they lack a real running back, have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and now have to overcome an injury to Jordy Nelson. Rodgers is as close to Superman as the NFL has, but that's simply too much for him to overcome. 

The Cowboys will play keepaway with a powerful run game and short passing game to keep Rodgers off the field. The Packers will have to play their best game of the season to even stay in this game. 

Score: Dallas 27, Green Bay 20

Stally: The future is bright in Dallas, but not this weekend.  The Packers have been a dominant football team throughout the second half of the season, and have won seven straight, including a 38-13 win last weekend in the Wild Card Round over a solid New York Giants team.  I like the experience of Aaron Rodgers in the postseason over the inexperience of Dak Prescott, and see Green Bay winning what should be the most exciting game of the weekend.

Score: Green Bay 34, Dallas 27

Stally's Four-Point Pick
@Kansas City over Pittsburgh

Stally: Well, the OXen collectively are taking all four home teams to keep up the winning trend set forth last weekend.  That's truly the key for me in this game.  The Chiefs are a very complete team, more so than Pittsburgh which is more star-studded on offense but doesn't have quite the same consistency across the board.  In Pittsburgh, I'd take the Steelers, but I expect Kansas City to feed off the home crowd and slow down Pittsburgh's high-octane offense.

Score: Kansas City 27, Pittsburgh 20

Austen: The Chiefs have given me no reason all season long to not have them favored in any game, no matter the opponent. They might be the most complete team in the NFL, and their explosive special teams give them a chance put the nail in any team's coffin. 

The Steelers have the best three players in this matchup, but the Chiefs are the far superior team. Big Ben likes the sling the ball too much into dangerous territory and this defense will make him pay more than any defense he has faced this season. Ignore the last time these two teams played earlier this season, that was two different teams. This very easily could end up the best game to watch of the entire playoffs. 

Score: Kansas City 24, Pittsburgh 20

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