Week 17: Games Worth Watching

The Lions and Packers are neck-and-neck
in the race for the NFC North.

Stally: Week 17 is usually skipped in most fantasy football circles.  This year, more than most, it might be skipped by many of the NFL teams as well.  The AFC has its six teams with only some seeding scenarios on the line.  The NFC still has a division up for grabs (the NFC North) as well as a Wild Card spot that could, but might not, involve the NFC North loser.

Instead of ranking games by confidence like usual, I'll clump together the games worth watching, and the games not worth watching.  There's no need waste type on some of these irrelevant games, and the draft order really isn't something with which I'm going to concern myself at this time.

If Austen returns to the blog at some point, he's more into the draft than I am, so I'll leave that for him.

Must Watch Games

Green Bay @ Detroit (8:30 p.m. NBC)

This is the one game of the day in which there's an opportunity for either team to win and make an impact on their playoff situation.  The winner of this game wins the NFC North and goes to the playoffs.  These teams will know by kickoff if the loser can make it as a Wild Card or not (see the Redskins game below), which could further add to the intrigue.

The Lions have impressed this season.  The Packers have impressed as of late.  I'm going to give the edge to Detroit at home in this one, as I don't think this is the same old lame Lions team we've seen in the past.

My pick: Detroit (3 confidence points)

New York Giants @ Washington (4:25 p.m., FOX)

If Washington wins, it goes to the playoffs.  If it loses, it won't and allow the loser of the NFC North to claim the Wild Card even in the loss.

The Giants have locked up the first Wild Card spot, so they'll likely rest some of their starters and allow for an easier than expected Washington win.

My pick: Washington (5 confidence points)

Could Watch Games

New England @ Miami (1:00 p.m., CBS)

The Patriots must win to guarantee the top seed in the AFC.  Last year, they didn't care about that when playing Week 17 in Miami and lost, settling for the second seed and ultimately got eliminated at Denver as a result.

This year should be different. Miami must play in the Wild Card Round next week, so they'll likely rest some starters.  Plus, Jimmy Garoppolo has some playing experience under his belt and will likely play some of this game to rest Tom Brady.

My pick: New England (10 confidence points)

Oakland @ Denver (4:25 p.m., CBS)

The Raiders would steal the top seed in the AFC with a win and a Patriots loss (which they'll know the outcome of before kickoff0.  Oakland will need to play its starting offensive players to get used to Matt McGloin at QB in place of the injured Derek Carr, so they'll be all systems go.  That said, Denver has struggled and will be hungry for a season-ending win, and has the defense to frustrate McGloin.

My pick: Denver (7 confidence points)

Kansas City @ San Diego (4:25 p.m., CBS)

If the Raiders falter as I predict they will, that creates an opportunity for Kansas City to claim the second seed and a first-round bye as the AFC West champion.  There shouldn't be any questions about the favorite in this one, as the Chargers return home fresh of granting Cleveland its lone win of the season.

My pick: Kansas City (14 confidence points)

New Orleans @ Atlanta (4:25 p.m.)

The Falcons will lock up the first-round bye with a win, so they have a lot for which to play.  New Orleans is in the last game of a disappointing season.  The Saints are always dangerous, but probably not enough so to upset the Falcons at home.

My pick: Atlanta (12 confidence points)

Slightly Irrelevant Games
These games at least have a playoff contender but not much implication.

Houston @ Tennessee (1:00 p.m.)

Houston has already locked up the AFC South and will host a home game in the Wild Card Round, so they might rest some starters (not you, benched Brock Osweiler).

My pick: Tennessee (6 confidence points)

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m.)

The Steelers will be hosting a Wild Card Round game.  The Browns have a win (finally!), so there's no win or go 0-16 challenge.

My pick: Pittsburgh (16 confidence points)

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m.)

From FiveThirtyEight.com: "The Buccaneers can make the playoffs in a tiebreaker against Washington and Green Bay, which means they need to beat Carolina, have Green Bay lose to Detroit, and have Washington tie the Giants. This isn’t quite enough, though; in order to actually win the tiebreaker they also need San Francisco to beat Seattle, Dallas to beat Philadelphia, Tennessee to beat Houston, and Indianapolis to beat Jacksonville to gain a narrow strength of victory edge over Green Bay."

So, you're saying there's a chance!  The Bucs might as well win to achieve Step 1, I guess.

My pick: Tampa Bay (9 confidence points)

Dallas @ Philadelphia (1:00 p.m.)

The Cowboys locked up the top seed in the NFC two weeks ago.  The Eagles are done.  This is borderline "completely irrelevant."

My pick: Dallas (4 confidence points)

Seattle @ San Francisco (4:25 p.m.)

The Seahawks could sneak into the Number 2 seed with a win and an Atlanta loss.  They could also sink to the Number 4 seed if they somehow become only the second team (other than Los Angeles) to gift San Francisco a win.

My pick: Seattle (15 confidence points)

Completely Irrelevant Games
Neither of the teams in any of these matchups have any playoff hope.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati
My pick: Baltimore (8 confidence points)

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
My pick: Indianapolis (11 confidence points)

Chicago @ Minnesota
Once 5-0, the last remaining undefeated team, and a Super Bowl favorite, the Vikings won't be going to the playoffs.
My pick: Chicago (1 confidence point)

Buffalo @ New York Jets
My pick: New York (2 confidence points)

Arizona @ Los Angeles
The Rams lost twice to the 2-13 49ers. #CMonMan
My pick: Arizona (13 confidence points)