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| I wonder if Ditka could even coach this decimated Bears team into the playoffs... |
The Bears lost Matt Forte with a sprained MCL, which is expected to keep him out 2-4 weeks. My honest opinion? I always find recovery from injuries like this take a little longer than expected. What do you think, Austen? As a cornerstone of Chicago's franchise, there's no way he gets rushed back, is there?
Or, is there? The Bears are precariously perched at 7-5, tied with the Falcons and Lions and just a game in front of the Giants for the two Wild Card spots in the NFC. The offense looked awful in a 10-3 home loss to Kansas City, in which it mustered just 181 yards. With Jay Cutler already out, what's the impact of Forte's injury on the Bears' season? Can they still make the playoffs with Caleb Hanie at QB and Marion Barber at RB, or is it time to fold up the flag on their season?
Also, just out of curiosity while we're on topic: Ditka or God?
Austen: Trick question, Ditka is God.
Moving on from Chris Farley, I really think the Bears are screwed. I would be shocked if Matt Forte was back for the regular season because he is in a contract year and I am sure he will not want to aggravate his injury going into the offseason and allowing teams to low ball him because of it. Because of this, let's take a look at the Bears' remaining schedule and see what they have in store.
@Broncos: I will be the first one to say that Tim Tebow played the best game of his career last week. The defense again made stops when they needed to in order to keep them in the game, especially a late interception that set up the game-winning field goal, but they also allowed Percey Harvin to have a career day on them (eight catches for 156 yards and two TDs, as well as 19 rushing yards) and allowed Toby Gerhart to have a very good day as well. Tebow actually threw the ball extremely well, and he was the reason they were able to keep up with the Vikings surprisingly high-powered offense. The Bears defense is good, but if the offense cannot manage to score double-digit points against the Chiefs, I cannot imagine them doing it against a tough Broncos' D. Let's chalk this up to a loss for the Bears.
Seahawks: The Seahawks are getting better every week and their defense has also been playing very well. Marshawn Lynch has been unstoppable. The Bears play better at home, but if Caleb Hanie does not start making significant strides, they will not have a chance in this game unless Hester has two returns for touchdowns. I'll give the Bears the benefit of the doubt and say they win this one at home.
@Packers: Obviously, no one is playing as well as the Packers are right now. Even if Matt Flynn starts most of this game as the Packers will have home-field advantage locked up by then, I think Fylnn will steal this one from the Bears. Remember Flynn almost beat the Patriots last season when Rodgers missed a game because of a concussion.
@Vikings: This is also a team that is making huge strides, mostly on offense. Their defense is still awful since the defensive backs cannot cover anyone, but their offense might give them enough to beat the Bears in a low-scoring game. Again, I will give the benefit of the doubt that the Bears will be able to pull of this win, especially if they have Cutler back by this game, which could be a real possibility.
All in all, the best I think the Bears will be able to finish is 9-7, which I do not think will be enough to get them into the playoffs. There is also a real possibility that they do not get Cutler or Forte back at all this season and that could lead them to losing all four of their last games. I will be rooting for the Bears for the rest of the season, but I would not hold out much hope for their playoff chances.
Stally: I agree on your projections, but not the synopsis. I think that, aside from the Packers, there are three "win-able" games on the table, but "win-able," doesn't mean they'll actually pull them off. I like the Bears against the Broncos and the Vikings, but those are on the road, which balances it out in my mind. I'll say what you did, win over Seattle and Minni, losses against Denver and Green Bay that leaves them at 9-7.
I still think 9-7 might do the trick via tiebreaker, where they're currently 6-3 in conference. I projected out that the Lions go 1-3 and finish at 8-8, so they're out. The Falcons go 3-1 and finish 10-6, so they're in. The Giants go 3-1 and finish 9-7, the Cowboys go 2-2 and finish at 9-7. The Giants 3-6 conference record is a big detriment to them; they're also 1-2 in the division. In this case, the NFC looks like this: Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans, Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago.
The Bears are still on the inside track right now, thanks to having the best conference record of any team they're currently fighting with for a spot.
Austen: With the Dolphins winning four out of their last five games, only losing in the last second to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, what do you think of them and Matt Moore? This is the team that I expected to see when I predicted they would go 7-9. Their defense is finally getting it together and Matt Moore has been fantastic.
Does this team have a bright future ahead of them? Should the Dolphins give Moore a chance to be their starter in 2012 or should they draft one of the highly touted quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft? What has made the difference for this team in the second half of the year and can they keep it going?
Buy or sell this Dolphins team?
Stally: We must vary in our definitions of the word "fantastic." Matt Moore has a completion percentage of 61.9 (11th in the NFL), a QB rating of 87.6 (10th) and 197 yards/game (28th). Has he been good? Yes. Has he been better than we expected? Definitely. Has he been fantastic? Absolutely not.
He's a serviceable quarterback, but by no means is he elite, nor will he become elite. Go ahead and make a list of ranking the best quarterbacks. You're not even going to start considering Matt Moore until you get about halfway through the league. He gives the Dolphins flexibility in the draft as they don't have to use a first-round pick to take a quarterback.
That said, if the price is right and it makes sense, Moore's not so "fantastic" (as you would say) that Miami shouldn't have the possibility of drafting a quarterback in the first round. Imagine it like a quarterback trying to throw a ball. There's no need for Miami to force a play and make a bad decision, but if the opportunity is there, they should still take it.
As far as whether to buy or sell this year's team, I'd recommend neither and will be maintaining the small stock I currently have invested in them. At the beginning of the year, their over/under win total was seven. I thought for sure they'd win less and was laughing at the thought it was so ridiculously high when they started 0-7.
My laughter's stopped now and it's just a striking reminder that often times Las Vegas seems to know something the rest of us don't. If they beat the struggling Eagles at home and can upset either the Patriots or Jets later in the year, they'll be looking at a 7-9 record.
Then again, with a December game at Buffalo and the other three games remaining against talented teams (even if Phillly doesn't play like it), they could also struggle to a 4-12 finish. They have played very well lately, but they haven't been playing any team that's considered very good. So, my take: they're playing at about a 6-10 kind of quality and that's probably about where they'll finish.
Just a question for you to address in your answer. Nate Neroni and I got in a debate last night. He doesn't know much about Daniel Thomas and doesn't want to. I'm convinced Thomas is the future in the backfield for Miami and that his Round 12 value in our keeper league is definitely a great value. Neroni says his strategy is to never keep a player that will be perform worse than round 5 player and that Thomas won't be have that value in 2012. What are your thoughts on that? By the end of 2012, will D.T. be someone that fantasy owners look back at and think should have been drafted in the first five rounds?
Austen: I think you have to say that for the situation Moore was put into, he has been fantastic. He will never be Tom Brady, but the likelihood of them drafting a top-10 quarterback in the 2012 draft is very unlikely, unless they trade away their entire draft to get Andrew Luck. However, Moore has probably played better than any quarterback wearing a Dolphins jersey since Dan Marino.
Since his first start in which he got blown out by the Jets, the Dolphins are 4-3 and they have not lost by more than three points, all of which were caused by blown leads by the defense. He has also made a very mediocre offense look explosive at times, putting up over 30 points in three different games. That's incredible for a team that has really struggled scoring touchdowns over the last 2-3 seasons.
Brandon Marshall looks way more focused with Moore at the helm and is averaging more yards per catch this season than he has since his rookie year, in which he only caught 20 passes. He is still struggling with drops, but that is not Moore's fault and Moore has clearly been beneficial to Marshall's production.
Reggie Bush was atrocious during the beginning of the year with Chad Henne at quarterback, but he is now having probably the best season of his career. Maybe he is helping out Moore more than we think, but Moore seems to be the motivating catalyst to this entire offense.
The Dolphins' defense was downright awful for the first half of the season, but they too have made a huge turn around. They have a lot of talent on all three levels of the defense and it seems like they are finally putting it together. Whether that is due to coaching or Moore giving this team a reason to fight for a win, I cannot tell you, but it seems too coincidental that this entire team made huge strides once Moore settled into his starting role, especially since he did the same exact thing with a struggling Panthers team two years ago.
I think Henne is gone after this season and most likely Moore will be the Fins' starting quarterback in 2012 because they will play their way out of the top-10 in the draft and will not be able to nab one of the top tier quarterbacks. The 2012 year will be a make or break season for Moore's career to see whether or not he is starting caliber or just a very solid backup quarterback. I like his odds though, due to his leadership and decision making skills.
On to Daniel Thomas, I don't like him. He has shown some flashes at times, but so have a lot of running backs. I mean Steve Slaton put together a 1600-yard season before being revealed as a subpar running back. He needs to show some sort of consistency before fantasy owners can trust him at all.
Considering the Dolphins' coaching staff have given all the goal line touches to can't-break-a-tackle Reggie Bush instead of the 230-pound Thomas, it does not look like he is getting much support even from within his own team. That's not a guy I would be going after in any round unless he shows something more in the rest of 2011.
Sorry to burst your Thomas bubble, since I know you are trying to trade him. But, unless you have an absolutely awful fantasy team, I cannot imagine anyone wasting a keeper spot for Thomas, especially since you might be able to draft him in the last round of next year's draft.
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