Sunday, December 11, 2011

Week 14: Varying Opinions

Ravens look to sack the Colts to leave them at lucky 0-13.
There's a lot disagreement with this week, with the OXen arguing over five different outcomes.  Let's get right to it!

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @Baltimore over Indianapolis

Stally: We've both lost our top picks at some point this season.  Something neither of us have lost: picking against Indy.  It seems like the logical choice again this week.

Austen: Ditto. There is nothing to say here. The Ravens could win this game if they started Ray Rice at quarterback.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Pittsburgh over Cleveland

Austen: Well this game already happened and the Steelers almost fell to the Browns due to an injury to Ben Roethlisberger. Lucky for me, the Browns offense is terrible and the Steelers defense held strong. That's why I took this first overall because there was almost no scenario in which the Browns could have won this game.

Stally: I always fear those AFC North rivalry games, but agree that the Steelers were a heavy favorite and that this was a good choice.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - New England over @Washington

Stally: I always feel like picking the Patriots to early can jinx them, but this Washington team hasn't spent a lot of time winning this season.  Somehow I just can't see a Rex Grossman led offense keeping up with that of Tom Brady.

Austen: Grossman could make this game a shootout, I know that sounds crazy, but considering how bad the Patriots defense is, it's possible. However, Grossman will make way more mistakes than Brady will in this contest and that will be the reason the Patriots win...again.

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - @Green Bay over Oakland

Austen: The Raiders have looked terrible as of late and I will keep betting on the Packers going undefeated this season. Carson Palmer has the potential to put up a lot of points in this game, but the one thing he struggles with is throwing interceptions, and the Packers have the most INTs in the NFL so far this season. Packers pull out another one.

Stally: Yep!  Perhaps if this was in Oakland, the black-and-silver could dream of an upset, but if they can't put together a game in Miami, they're not going to do it in Green Bay.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - San Francisco over @Arizona

Stally: San Fran has basically run over their weak division this season.  I don't see that changing anytime soon with the disparity in quality between the 49ers and the rest of the NFC West.

Austen: I think this could be a trap game for the Niners in Arizona. The Cardinals play much better at home and linebacker Patrick Willis and starting cornerbacks Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown are all questionable. With the division clinched, there is not much of a reason to rush their starting defensive players back to the field, all three of these guys should be held out of the game. That's a lot of playmakers missing on this defense, which has been the main reason for their success this season. I see an upset.

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - @New York-J over Kansas City

Austen: I said the same thing last week, if the Jets cannot win this game at home, I will be betting against them the rest of the season. All you need to know is that Tyler Palko is still the starting quarterback in KC and that should be reason enough the Jets win this game.

Stally: You said it.  The Jets strength is their defense and Kansas City doesn't have an offense that can put up points against anyone right now!

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - Atlanta over @Carolina

Stally: Plain and simple.  If the Falcons are worthy of going to the playoffs, like I think they are, they'll win this game.  I just don't think Carolina's defense is good enough to give Cam Newton's offense a chance to steal this one.

Austen: Again, I see an upset. The Falcons are terrible on the road and Matt Ryan has struggled against the Panthers before. I think the Panthers come out hot and Matt Ryan will not be able to come back from a rough start.

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - @San Diego over Buffalo

Austen: The Chargers play their best football in the month of December. I don't know why, but they do. The Bills make it easy for the Chargers to follow that trend. The Bills are simply really bad.

Stally: Wow!  Remember when we were talking about the Bills as a playoff contender?  Then, Fred Jackson got hurt and they've returned to Earth as they don't have enough talent to be a good team.  The Chargers have struggled, but they definitely have the talent.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - New Orleans over @Tennessee

Stally: I don't like this choice one bit, because I've been touting the Titans horn for halfway decency all season.  The Saints also don't seem to be anything special on the road, but they're a very good team.  This seemed like a better choice than any of the games that were left, although four points is more than I would have liked to risk to take it.

Austen: The Saints have to win this game to attempt to steal the first round bye from the 49ers and I think they will do just that. Brees has been unstoppable lately and I think that trend will continue. It could be close, but the Saints should win this one.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - @Seattle over St. Louis

Austen: I feel strange taking the Seahawks this high, but they are playing the Rams. The Rams have been awful on offense and their rush defense is the worst in the league. I think Marshawn Lynch will carry the Seahawks to a win in this game.

Stally: It's also a home game for Seattle, who plays notoriously well there.  They beat the Rams last year in this situation to take the division and St. Louis is playing far worse than at that time.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - @Detroit over Minnesota

Stally: The Lions have looked very mortal recently, but Minnesota can't seem to figure out how to win games!  Detroit at home makes sense.

Austen: This is definitely a game the Lions have to win. With Adrian Peterson out again, I do not think the Vikes have a shot in this one. Their defense will have to have their best game of the year to even keep this close. They cannot cover anyone, how are they going to cover Calvin Johnson?

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - @Denver over Chicago

Austen: I took the Broncos here because I want my own personal jinx to put an end to this Tebow-mania. The Broncos should win this game with the way the Bears are playing, but this is exactly the type of game the Bears seem to win.

Stally: Agreed, and that's exactly why I'm taking the Bears.  I think they have the defense to slow down Denver and that it's time the Broncos luck runs out.  Funny that I jump off the bandwagon at the same time you climb on, but I feel like I had this Denver team pegged long before you did.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - @Tampa Bay over Jacksonville

Stally: When Jon Gruden (I think, maybe it was Jaws) says on the broadcast that there are rookies on the Jags that just shouldn't be on the field, I take note.  The firing of Del Rio won't do any short term favors and Blaine Gabbert's prominence in Jacksonville might end up being a lot shorter than his hair.  I'll take a bad Bucs team at home over a terrible Jags team on the road.

Austen: I thought the Bucs would be fighting for a playoff spot at this point in the season, but instead they are fighting to get out of the top-10 in the NFL draft. They have been really bad, but Josh Freeman seems to be healthy again so hopefully LeGarrette Blount gets back on track and the Bucs win this one.

Stally: I did not think the Bucs would be fighting for a playoff spot and can't help but notice they're right on track for the 6-10 finish I predicted for them

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - New York-G over @Dallas

Austen: I did not like taking any of these last three games, so I decided to have some faith in my second favorite New York team to take down the rival Cowboys in Dallas. I think they will win this game because the Cowboys have been barely scraping by against really terrible teams.

Stally: You knew I'd take the Cowboys!  I'm not overly impressed by the way they've been playing, but I do think they'll pull this one out at home.  They're still a good team, even if they play inconsistently.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - Houston over @Cincinnati

Stally: Too late now to change my pick, now that Andre Johnson has been ruled out for Houston, so let me try to talk myself into this one.  The Texans proved against Atlanta last week that they are a still capable of beating decent teams, Cincy very much falls under the "decent" umbrella.

Austen: I think the Texans' defense continues to carry this team and makes life tough for rookie Andy Dalton. I see the Texans winning another close defensive battle. Who would have thought I'd be saying that a year ago?

Austen (One-Point Pick) - @Miami over Philadelphia

Austen: The Eagles have been awful and the Dolphins have been playing for their coach's job. I think the Dolphins will be more motivated than the Eagles, despite them getting Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin back, and they pull off a win (I almost called it an upset but they have the same record).

Stally: Philly has far more talent than an inspired Dolphins team.  If the Eagles show up to play, they'll win (but who knows if that will happen).  The Eagles have also had 10 days to regroup from an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks.

Pick 'Em 

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Stally: Pittsburgh
Austen: Pittsburgh

Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Stally: Baltimore
Austen: Baltimore

Atlanta @ Carolina
Stally: Atlanta
Austen: Carolina

Houston @ Cincinnati
Stally: Houston
Austen: Houston

Minnesota @ Detroit
Stally: Detroit
Austen: Detroit

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville
Stally: Tampa Bay
Austen: Tampa Bay

Philadelphia @ Miami
Stally: Philadelphia
Austen: Miami

Kansas City @ New York-J
Stally: New York-J
Austen: New York-J

New Orleans @ Tennessee
Stally: New Orleans
Austen: New Orleans

New England @ Washington
Stally: New England
Austen: New England

San Francisco @ Arizona
Stally: San Francisco
Austen: Arizona

Chicago @ Denver
Stally: Chicago
Austen: Denver

Oakland @ Green Bay
Stally: Green Bay
Austen: Green Bay

Buffalo @ San Diego
Stally: San Diego
Austen: San Diego

New York-G @ Dallas
Stally: Dallas
Austen: New York-G

St. Louis @ Seattle
Stally: Seattle
Austen: Seattle 

Lots of disagreement this week means I might have a shot at making up some ground!

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