The Season's Overtime Coin Toss

Even Norv Turner is puzzled about
how he's still coaching the Chargers.

Stally: Ok, so we started this right after the regular season ended, but Austen wrote so much that it took me a while to go through his answer and come up with my own.  Some of the questions might sound dated, but they should still provide insight.

Let's take a look at some of the recent coaching and/or managerial changes as the carousel swings around in full circle.  For each, I'm interested in a A-F grade on the choice to either fire or retain the person and a brief explanation on the grade.

Excluding the midseason firings that we discussed at the time, here's what we've seen (as of Wed. after the regular season):

2-14 Colts - fire Chairman Bill Polian, GM Chris Polian

2-14 Rams - fire Steve Spagnuolo

4-12 Bucs - fire Head Coach Raheem Morris

8-8 Bears - fire GM Jerry Angelo, retain Head Coach Lovie Smith

8-8 Chargers - retain Head Coach Norv Turner

8-8 Eagles - retain Head Coach Andy Reid

Three other questions, Austen, two of which can be tied into answers on the above teams:

- The future of Colts' Head Coach Jim Caldwell is still hanging in the balance.  Is there any way or reason that he is retained?

- How the heck does Marty Schottenheimer get fired after a 14-2 season in San Diego and Turner is retained after this year's catastrophe?

- What's the future of Romeo Crennel in Kansas City and do you agree with that future?

Austen: I will start off talking about the Colts in general. This was by far the worst team in football and all it took was to lose Peyton Manning. There is no excuse for that, so I really think the Colts need to clean house. 

Cutting ties with the Polians was definitely a tough decision, but since the Colts have drafted horribly the last few years, especially in the first round, and they decided that Peyton would play for the next 20 years and never get injured, they definitely needed to go. There is no excuse for not getting a decent backup to Peyton since he was injured and is getting towards the end of his career. 

I will give the Colts a B for this move, which could be higher depending on who they find to replace them. It was only a good move if they can find someone better. 

As for Caldwell, I think he needs to go as well (called it). This season shows that the Colts have absolutely no one on this team with any leadership skills, which includes Caldwell. He has been able to sit back and relax with Peyton taking the reins and acting as the head coach, and this season showed he clearly cannot control his locker room without Peyton. 

The head coaching job in Indianapolis would be a highly sought after job if it became available, and I think they can do a lot better with some besides Caldwell. Any coach would love the option of having their pick of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback for 2012. This is probably the most talented 2-14 team the NFL has ever seen, so do not think for a minute that they will not be in playoff contention next season with or without Peyton.

Onto the disastrous Rams. After a season in which they barely missed out on the playoffs, Spagnuolo lead this team to a 2-14 record, and they were not even as good as their record suggests. They had the worst offense in the league and one of the worst defenses, which was what Spagnuolo was specifically brought in to help fix. 

I will not blame the offense on Spagnuolo, but this is a defense that has been struggling for years and he has seemingly made no effect on the team. Maybe his defenses were so good in New York because of two guys named Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora and not because of his scheme. 

He will be a sought after defensive coordinator, but he clearly had no business being a head coach, so I will give the Rams a B+ for this move. Again this could become higher rated if they find an adequate replacement, which will be very difficult considering the lack of talent on this team. Landing Jeff Fisher would be huge for this franchise. (The Rams landed Fisher along with two solid offensive and defensive coordinators as well.)

Ronde Barber was too old to be the
first mate for Raheem Morris' ship.

I am going to give the firing of Raheem Morris a C- for the Bucs, mostly because I think the majority of the blame for the Bucs' taking a step backwards has more to do with the GM than the coach. Morris led a very young team to a 10-6 record in 2010 and the personnel department took that as a sign that they needed to do nothing to tweak the roster. 

Morris was not given the talent to succeed on the field and that is inexcusable considering they had almost $40 million in cap space. Their biggest acquisition was stealing away the Falcons' punter with a $19 million contract. They could have gone after Nnamdi Asomugha, Antonio Cromartie, or Jonathan Joseph, all of whom would have been huge upgrades over the 36-year-old Ronde Barber. Also with all of Aqib Talib's run ins with the law, cornerback was a huge issue for them. Yet, they decided to do nothing and their defense really took a step back, despite a much improved defensive line thanks to rookie Adrian Clayborn becoming a playmaker for this squad.

On offense, they also did nothing to help out the very young Josh Freeman. They did not get any sort of a complimentary running back for second year LeGarrette Blount, who they decided to put their entire offense on all season long. He did not deliver at all and their defense was so bad they basically had no choice but to go to the passing game by the second quarter in most games. Since Blount is not very effective on passing downs, he became useless for most of the game and they had to use 31-year-old Earnest Graham, who had been playing fullback for the last season or two. 

Also, with tons of solid receivers in free agency, they decided to stick with their very young and inexperienced receivers, which again blew up in their face. Teams realized that Mike Williams was the only threat in the passing game and double teamed him all season long. This gave Freeman no one to throw to and that is why he ended up throwing almost four times as many interceptions as he did last season. 

Morris was given no hope for success and this was clearly a move by the GM to try to place blame elsewhere. By no means did Morris do a great job coaching this season, but I would have stuck it out with him for at least one more season to see if he could turn this team around. Instead, they will be looking for another coach, and it will be very difficult to convince any coach to come to this team, considering how little support they gave to Morris in his short time with the team. 

The Bears might have had the most disappointing season of any team in the NFL and a lot of that had to do with GM Jerry Angelo. Besides the Bucs, the Bears might have handled free agency worse than any other team in the NFL. They needed a receiver badly for Jay Cutler, yet Angelo allowed the stubbornly stupid Mike Martz to convince him to only go after Roy Williams. Williams had one good season with Martz six years ago and has been terrible since, and this might have been the worst season of his career. This was a horrible move and it also gave less reps to Johnny Knox, who is definitely the Bears' best receiver. This led to Knox having the worst season of his career as well and the Bears passing offense took yet another step backwards. Martz is now gone as well and the Bears offense is going to have to again be completely overhauled. 

The Bears biggest need was at offensive line and again they did nothing in free agency. There were numerous guys on the open market at the guard and tackle positions, yet the Bears decided to do nothing. They luckily landed Gabe Carimi in the draft, and if he can stay healthy, he should be the best lineman the Bears have in 2012. They also allowed center/team leader Olin Kreutz to leave in free agency over $500,000, which in the NFL is basically meaningless. This might have been the dumbest move in the offseason, if not for the Bears' defensive acquisition.

The Bears' definitely needed help in their secondary, so they signed safety Brandon Meriweather, who was cut by the Patriots. First, if Bill Belichick cannot turn a defensive guy into a productive player, no one can, so this should have been advised against from the start. Secondly, the Patriots were trying to trade Meriweather and would have taken a sixth or seventh round pick for him.  His contract had only one year left on it and it was for around $1.5 million. The Bears decided to not trade for him, but then paid him over $3 on a one-year contract. I have never seen a guy get cut and then get his contract doubled before, because only an idiot would do this.

Angelo might have been the worst GM in the NFL, besides the late Al Davis, and he simply had to go. I will give the Bears an A- for this move. The minus is only because they allowed him to be their GM for way too long. He should have been fired years ago.

While Angelo might have been the worst GM in football this season, Norv Turner and Andy Reid were equally as detrimental to their football teams. Both of these guys simply sat back and thought that the amount of talent they had on their teams would guarantee them a playoff berth. Both were wrong. 

I have little doubt that Raheem Morris could have taken either of these teams to the playoffs, yet he is fired and both of these guys keep their jobs. Turner and Reid do not coach with any passion or enthusiasm, and that type of coaching style basically only works when you are Bill Belichick. Neither of these guys are anywhere near as smart as Belichick, especially Reid, so they need to find a different way of coaching these teams. 

While Turner seemingly did nothing to help or hurt his team (he just failed to get his team working as a cohesive unit, which is his job), I think Reid did a huge disservice to his ball club by putting together a team of athletes and not putting them in a system to utilize their skills properly. Reid has the most mobile quarterback in the league and the most versatile running back the NFL has seen in quite some years, yet Reid loves the passing game so much he decides to throw the ball 40-50 times a game. I wrote many articles about Reid this season, all of which emphasized the fact that the Eagles should be running the ball 30-40 times a game. 

While this really hurt their offense, hiring Juan Castillo, who has been an offensive line coach almost all of his coaching career, as a defensive coordinator simply because "he played linebacker in college," was the most arrogant coaching move I have ever seen. It helped to make the most talented defense in the league completely ineffective. Every team in the league ran the ball effectively against the Eagles and that is because an offensive line coach should never make a one year jump to being your defensive play caller. This was the worst coaching decision I have probably ever seen and it definitely cost this team a playoff berth.

I give the Chargers a C for keeping Turner, only because Phillip Rivers pleaded for his job and it is hard for an organization to go out of their way to piss off their $90 million franchise quarterback. He should have been fired, but Rivers' backing was clearly the difference that saved his job.

The Eagles, on the other hand, get a big fat F for keeping Reid. He was the worst coach in football all year long, he failed to make adjustments to right his team before they went 4-8, and he lost control of his locker room, especially DeSean Jackson, who clearly gave up on the Eagles season, despite the fact that he should have been playing for a new contract. For personal reasons, I am glad Reid is still in Philly, so that I can keep on hating the team and the coach. Hopefully Reid keeps screwing up the Eagles and keeping them out of Super Bowl contention.

Sorry to go on for so long, but there was a lot to be said about all of these teams. Now for Deep Thoughts by Jonathan Stallsmith. 

Stally: I'll keep it much shorter than that by more or less echoing everything you just said.  You know I've never disliked Andy Reid, but I did write a Goal Line Stand about how his departure was imminent.  It's kind of ironic that a foolish move by the Eagles makes my assertions look foolish, isn't it?

...That's about it, everything else you covered in your lecture, Professor Elmore.

Austen: Now onto 2012. There were a ton of good 8-8 teams this year and I was wondering what you thought of each of them. The only eight win team to make the playoffs this year was the Broncos, so we'll ignore them for now because they proved by beating the Steelers that they are at least on the right track, even if that is the Tebow track.

So we are looking at the Cardinals, Bears, Cowboys, Jets, Raiders, Eagles, Chargers, and possibly the 9-7 Titans, if you so desire (since I think they still stink). All of these teams were considered playoff caliber teams, but they all fell short. Who do you think are the best of these teams? Are some of these teams worse than their record indicates? Which of these teams is going to have to start rebuilding at least on one side of the football?

Are these teams better or worse than their records?

Stally: I see three groups in here: the should-have-beens, the almost-weres and the best-we-could-dos.

The should-have-beens, in rank order, consist of the Eagles, Chargers, Cowboys...and, maybe, the Jets.

The worst thing about the failure of Philadelphia's "Dream Team" is that we're going to have to spend all of 2012 listening to the talking heads force the term "Redeem Team" down our throats.  The Eagles' play late in the season, in which they closed out the year with four straight wins, proves that they were clearly capable of being the team we thought they could be before the season started.  I doubt we'll see much change here and that even includes at the head coaching position (see Austen's assessment of that decision above).

The Chargers played in the worst division in football and there's no reason they couldn't have found one, single more win in the West.  They showed signs of the 11-5, 12-4 team we thought they could be, but they were inconsistent and seemed to lack any motivation to win a game.  The loss of Darren Sproles hurt them far more than anyone thought it would, and, while he wasn't an every down back, they haven't found anyone that can make their offense run the way LaDainian Tomlinson used to five years ago.  While I was high on him as a rookie, I'm comfortable saying now: Ryan Mathews is not the solution.

If I told you that one quarterback in the NFC East completed 66.3% of his passes for 31 TDs, 10 INTs and a 102.5 QB rating, while another completed 61.0% for 29 TDs, 16 INTs and a 92.9 rating, could you distinguish Tony Romo and Eli Manning?  The first stat line is that of Romo's and a reflection that it's quite sad that Manning beat him out not only for a Pro Bowl selection but also for the division title.  Dallas was also better than the Giants defensively, so I'm looking in the direction of Felix Jones to pick out the weakness as the running game.  DeMarco Murray looked great in the few games he became the feature back (before injury), so I don't see the running game being a permanent problem (unlike San Diego).  This is two years in a row the 'Boys have underachieved, but I expect them to be a contender next year.

Yet another one of Rex Ryan's Super
Bowl guarantees went unvalidated.

The Jets are lucky to be listed as a should-have-been and are probably only there because of their success the previous two seasons (with appearances in the AFC Championship).  That, and the perception dumped upon the nation by a loud mouth coach that continually asserts that a team that hasn't won its own division since 2002, beat the Giants since 1993 or made the Super Bowl since 1968 is an elite team. (Ouch) While Austen kept the faith for Gang Green, it became apparent to me halfway through the season that this Jets team just didn't have what it did the previous two seasons.  While I was surprised they didn't at least manage a winning season, it didn't come as much surprise they weren't near the cream of the league's crop.

The Jets could have easily fallen into the almost-weres category where I place the Chicago Bears.  The almost-weres were more teams that were a few bricks short of a load.  Whereas Philly, San Diego and Dallas flat out underachieved, the Bears seemed in a position where they could be a contender only if everything went right (a la the 2009 and 2010 Jets).  Unfortunately, as Austen mentioned earlier in regards to the firing of the team's GM, the Bears weren't well built.  If any team lost their starting QB and RB, they'd be hurting, but it looked like a later season version of the Colts - totally deflated.  After starting 7-3, Chicago lost five straight, including miserable home games to the likes of the Chiefs and Seahawks.

Lastly, we have the best-we-could-dos.  These are teams that achieved about as well as they're going to do and really aren't going to do a lot better without significant improvements.  In rank order, the Titans, Raiders and Cardinals fall into this group.

Matt Hasselbeck isn't a long term solution in Tennessee, as he's getting up there in years, and, aside from Kenny Britt, there isn't much to brag about in the passing game.  I see no reason why the Titans can't be in the 7-9/9-7 band for the next few years, but I also don't see any reason why they'll ever get up any higher than that.  Do they need to implode the team?  No.  But, they need to make improvements.

Austen was higher on the Raiders for much of the season than I was, but I just don't get this team.  I didn't support them firing Tom Cable when he went 8-8 with a lesser team last year and I wasn't overly surprised Hue Jackson's team topped out at the same speed.  What I can't seem to figure out is how Jackson has also been fired?  At what point will the Raiders accept that the team they're putting on the field is mediocre and despite decent coaching, it's not going to get better without better players!?  We all said it would be when Al Davis died, but that's clearly not the case.  The team lost its All-Pro player in Nnamdi Asomugha during the offseason and the oft uninspiring Jason Campbell was putting together a surprisingly decent season before injury.  I didn't expect the Raiders to go any better than 8-8 and I don't again next year.

Then, there are the Cardinals.  They're 8-8 record is a mirage.  Want to challenge me on that?  You won't win!  Arizona was just 4-8 in games that ended in regulation and won no less than four home games in overtime.  Here's who they beat in those four: St. Louis, Dallas, Cleveland, Seattle.  Aside from Dallas, none of those jump off the page as solid performances against good teams.  Meanwhile, they snuck by Carolina (at home) early in the season and the Rams on the road, while losing to the Vikings.  Going forward, the team is in a bad spot as John Skelton is clearly the best quarterback in the locker room, but Kevin Kolb is being paid like a franchise player.  The Cardinals went 5-11 in 2010 and didn't do a whole lot, other than get lucky, to make me feel they were much better this year.

Austen: I agree with almost everything that you had to say, so I will just go through some of the things I disagree with you about. 

You have been higher on the Cowboys than I have been at all points in time this season. The only thing that is consistent about the Boys is that they are inconsistent. Tony Romo is boom or bust every week. He can either play amazingly well or completely fall apart and cost his team a win. He did both numerous times this season and that is why they are going to consistently be a disappointment. Dez Bryant has to improve his work ethic and Miles Austin has to get healthy for this offense to live up to its potential. 

Also, hiring Rob Ryan without improving possibly the worst defensive backfield in the NFL was flat out a horrible decision. His defense cannot function without at least solid cover corners and the poor play of Dallas' DBs allowed offenses to consistently attack them deep down field. Do not be surprised if the Cowboys go after cornerbacks early and often in the draft this year and free agency. 

DeSean Jackson helped throw
away the Eagles season. (Getty)

I will quickly mention the Eagles because I think there is a good possibility that they will be even worse next year than they were this year. They have a lot of defensive players on the wrong side of 30 and Michael Vick does not look like the player he was in 2010. DeSean Jackson is a free agent and it will be interesting to see what they will do with him. The Eagles are in a bit of a lose-lose situation with him because if he leaves, they lose a huge part of their offense and a player that makes Vick a much better quarterback. If they retain him with a big contract, which is the only type of contract Jackson will sign, they might end up over paying for a player who could end up being more trouble than he is worth (a la Santonio Holmes). They might learn from the Jets' mistake and let their troubled receiver go to no man's land, a.k.a. the Redskins (Holmes was offered more money by the Redskins and still stayed with the Jets last offseason). 

Speaking of Holmes, the Jets are a total mess and seemingly have been for the majority of the season. This team's holes and inconsistencies have been masked the last few seasons due to their ability to come together as a team and pull out tough wins. That team chemistry seems to be entirely gone and all of their flaws were on display for the world to see this season. They were lucky to get to eight wins, or unlucky if you take their draft position into consideration, and they have a lot of holes they need to fill this offseason. The bigger job might be finding a way to get this team working together again and getting them all on the same page.

The Raiders late season failures might have surprised me more than any other team's performance down the stretch. They simply fell apart. However, they were hit by injuries quite hard. They lost Darren McFadden for the last nine games of the season. The Raiders' offense was further hurt by losing starting quarterback Jason Campbell and then having to bring in Carson Palmer mid-season. Palmer's transition into the offense was hindered by the fact that all three of his top receivers, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore, kept rotating in and out of the lineup due to injuries. On defense, already a bit thin at cornerback after losing Nnamdi Asomugha to free agency, the Raiders lost starting cornerback Chris Johnson for almost the entire year. That is a lot for any team to lose, let alone a team that has been terrible for years and is trying to throw off that reputation.

As you said about the Bears, it is hard for any team to be down its quarterback and running back and be successful, yet the Raiders had that and more, yet were just a tiebreaker away from winning their division. Despite the fact that their division is the AFC West, the Raiders were impressive nonetheless. Maybe Stally does not think much of this team, but I have high hopes for this team in the future. They have stock piled young talent and might actually have a franchise quarterback.

All I will say about the Cardinals is that they are a total mess and they need to find a way to get rid of Kolb, and quickly before they have to give him a roster bonus. 

I won't try to rank any of these teams because there is not much of a point as of now. All of these teams should look significantly different after free agency and the draft, except for the Raiders who basically will not have a draft class in 2012 thanks to all of their trades. How these teams will perform in 2012 and beyond will have a lot to do with this offseason. As always, it will be fun to watch which teams rise to the top and which sink with the dregs of the NFL.