Sunday, December 1, 2013

Week 13: The AFC Stinks

While it might have been close, Thursday night's game only
proved that it's most definitely a down year in the AFC. (Getty)
It's official.  The AFC is a terrible conference this season.

Already in the books, the now-6-6 Ravens beat the now-5-7 Steelers on Thanksgiving.  And, on Sunday afternoon, the 5-6 Dolphins and 5-6 Jets will kickoff.  It's sad that one of these teams will likely emerge as a playoff candidate in the near future, despite none of them looking like they're even worthy of finishing at 8-8 this season.

Also on the line, the 7-4 Bengals head to 5-6 San Diego and the 5-6 Titans go to 7-4 Indianapolis.  Neither Cincy nor Indy has looked dominant, and wins for the underdogs would leap frog them into the 6-6 jumble of sixth seed mediocrity in the AFC.  All in all, it's pretty bad.

Here's who the Stubborn OXen have emerging from what is quickly turning into a stinky pile of dung:

Austen's Eight-Point Pick
New England over @Houston

Austen: The Texans just lost to home against the Jags. They are unquestionably the worst team in the NFL, and that is simply shocking.

Stally: Right about this same time last year (Dec. 10), the Patriots roughed up the 11-1 Texans to a tune of 42-14 (and mind you, Houston scored with two minutes left just to get the 14).  The Texans have gone 4-12 since; they're a bad football team.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick
@Dallas over Oakland

Stally: This one was closer than I expected, as the Raiders led 21-7 at one point.  In the end though, America's whipping boy (QB Tony Romo) led a controlled offense that got three TDs from RB DeMarco Murray, and the Cowboys won 31-24 on Thanksgiving.

Austen: The Raiders' defense is just terrible. They have two decent quarterbacks but injury laden running backs and a swiss cheese defense. This was a fine choice, even if it ended up being closer than expected. 

Austen's Seven-Point Pick
@Detroit over Green Bay

Austen: Without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers are a very sub par team. The Lions are tearing it up and they straight up embarrassed the Packers. 

Stally: I'd given a little bit more credit to the Packers in hopes that Matt Flynn might play a decent game, but he didn't.  Either way, I still had confidence that the Lions would win this one.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick
@Carolina over Tampa Bay

Stally: For all the teams that have unexpectedly stunk beyond belief, the Panthers have been a shining ray of hope.  Their defense is one of the most intimidating in the league, and that's bad news for a Bucs team with a rookie QB and a third-string RB.

Austen: Can Cam Newton keep it going? I would not bet against it. The Bucs' have turned into a solid team with Mike Glennon at the helm, but this defense might be too much for him to handle this early in his career. 

Austen's Six-Point Pick
@San Francisco over St. Louis

Austen: While the Rams are on a bit of a run, the 49ers are still one of the best teams in the league and they are getting Michael Crabtree back. San Fran is a clear favorite from where I stand.

Stally: Last year when the 49ers went to the Super Bowl, the Rams gave them fits (a loss and tie), but I consider that somewhat of a fluke.  I see no reason the better team won't win this one at home.

Stally's Six-Point Pick
@Indianapolis over Tennessee

Stally: The Colts aren't nearly as good as we thought at the beginning of the season.  I mean, they've been flat out blown out by St. Louis and Arizona, neither of whom are elite.  However, with most of the other games being tough to call, I'll go for Indy at home against an average-at-best opponent from Tennessee.

Austen: I cannot argue taking this game, but I cannot get any bit of a read on either of these teams. Both teams are amazingly mediocre in every way. 

Austen's Five-Point Pick
Chicago over @Minnesota

Austen: How do the Redskins not have the worst scoring defense in the NFL? Because the Vikings are somehow worse. Adrian Peterson might have 300 yards in this game and the Vikings could still lose. 

Stally: Someone explain to me how the Vikings are favored by a point in this game!?  Anyone?  Bueller?  That's what I thought! ... Bears win going away.

Stally's Five-Point Pick
Denver over @Kansas City

Stally: The Broncos's 9-2 record is reflective of the team's performance.  The Chiefs's 9-2 record is reflective of an easy schedule.  The Broncos are a better team; they will win.

Austen: Without Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, the Chiefs' defense is very vulnerable. That is no good when Peyton Manning comes to town.

Austen's Four-Point Pick
Pittsburgh over @Baltimore

Austen: This one was unsurprisingly close. Baltimore had the upper hand for the entire game, which was a big surprise to me since the Steelers had been playing the better football as of late. I cannot believe the Ravens are primed for another playoff run.

Stally: I can't believe that 6-6 is priming a team for a playoff run, but such is the case in the paltry bowels of the AFC.  I had figured that this one would come down to a field goal, it didn't, it actually came down to a two-point conversion.  Like Austen, I had Pittsburgh, but I was glad that he was the one to have picked this game; it's always a coin flip.

Stally's Four-Point Pick
@Seattle over New Orleans

Stally: This is a tough one to call, but Seattle hasn't lost at home since the 2011 season, a string of 13 consecutive wins.  They also famously upset the Saints at home in the 2010 Wild Card Round, when Marshawn Lynch's 67-yard touchdown run was actually documented to have caused seismic activity. This one could be for home-field advantage in the playoffs, and I think the home team takes it.

Austen: There is not a team I'd take over the Seahawks, especially at home. I've said they are the best team in the league since their first playoff game last season and I've stuck by that. The Saints are a tough matchup for anyone, but they do not fair well in winter weather. 

Austen's Three-Point Pick
New York Giants over @Washington

Austen: The Redskins are terrible. The Giants are not great either but they have enough firepower to take full advantage of this defense.

Stally: I agree with that statement.  Now someone tell me why the hell NBC flexed this into their SNF coverage!? ... I'm watching "The Walking Dead" instead.

Austen: Maybe they moved this game to SNF to boost the ratings of the Walking Dead? 

Stally's Three-Point Pick
@Philadelphia over Arizona

Stally: The Cardinals have won four straight and sit at 7-4, but most of their success is at home, where they're 5-1.  Their only two road wins are over Tampa Bay and Jacksonville, and I don't think Philadelphia will be their third.

Austen: I'm still not sold on the Eagles being a legitimate playoff threat. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are a legitimate threat. Patrick Peterson is going to beat up on DeSean Jackson and that really hinders what the Eagles can do on offense.

Austen's Two-Point Pick
@Buffalo over Atlanta

Austen: I'm giving up on the Falcons. The Bills are terrible, but they can take advantage of a team that is terrible in the elements and are pretty terrible wherever they play this season.

Stally: I'm going to side with the Falcons, only because this one is in Toronto's dome, a familiar setting for them.  Outdoors in the elements, I'd give this one to the Bills.

Stally's Two-Point Pick
Cincinnati over @San Diego

Stally: This is a tough one to call.  San Diego is an enigma.  They've beat some good teams and lost to some bad ones.  I do at least consider the Bengals to generally play competent football, and I like the youthful playmakers on their offense, so I'll go with them.

Austen: I am going with the better quarterback: Phillip Rivers. I think the Chargers make a run at that last playoff spot. 

Austen's One-Point Pick
@Cleveland over Jacksonville

Austen: While the Jags have been playing better as of late, they are still the second worst team in the league. The Browns have at least a few things going for them, while the Jags really do not have a true threat on either side of the ball. 

Stally: Similar to Buffalo, I like the cold weather home team against the southern team in a matchup that might otherwise be considered a coin flip.

Stally's One-Point Pick
Miami over @New York Jets

Stally: Both these teams stink and it's mockery to the AFC that at 5-6, this one has big playoff implications.  The Jets really aren't good at all, and their -101 point differential is second worst in the league to only Jacksonville.  With that said, I'll take the Dolphins.

Austen: I'm taking the Jets, but with very, very little confidence. They play exceptionally better at home, which is the only reason they have a shot in this one. 

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