Week 14: Bye-Bye, Byes

Before we begin, let me just take a minute to play this tribute video to one of the greatest bands to have ever walked this Earth ... and if you haven't listened to their Christmas album yet, then your heart is two sizes too small ...

Now let's get back to football, where we finally get to say "bye-bye" to bye weeks.  There are four weeks left in the NFL and every team is now through its bye, even Cleveland and Tennessee, whom I know we all missed seeing on the field last week.

Matthew Stafford and the Lions take the top pick this week,
which surely is a Stubborn OXen Blog first for Detroit.

There is one bye that continues, as Austen is on an indefinite bye from the blog.  I'll keep plugging along with my own picks, which probably are going to end up a game or two worse than your own (so take them with a grain of salt).  Without the safety net of Austen picking the favorite and letting me hide behind my underdog pick, I tend to get exposed every time I pick the 49ers to win for the first time since early September (which will happen again later in this blog).

Here are my picks in order of confidence points:

16 - @Detroit over Chicago

Stally: The Lions offense is good, we all knew that, but the defense?!  It just shut down Drew Brees in New Orleans, that's far more impressive than most of us thought it would be.  Detroit is shaping up to be a top contender in the NFC, and it's hard to imagine a lowly Bears team picking up this win on the road.
15 - Atlanta over @Los Angeles

Stally: There's just not much to like about the L.A. Rams, who are 1-7 since starting 3-1.  The Falcons could be without star WR Julio Jones, but the passing attack has spread the ball better than it has in seasons past, and Atlanta shouldn't be challenged in this one.

14 - Pittsburgh over @Buffalo

Stally: The Steelers have won three straight since bottoming out a month ago at 4-5 with a four-game losing streak.  The Bills are simply just ok as the mediocre 6-6 record would suggest, and an 8-8 finish seems to be in the cards.  Expect the Steelers to win this, but never be surprised when a Rex Ryan coached team puts up a fight to the end.

13 - Cincinnati over @Cleveland

Stally: RG3 is back for the Browns!  Cool, but they're still 0-12, so until they win, I don't see a reason to pick them.

12 - @New England over Baltimore

Stally: There probably isn't a more bitter, non-divisional rivalry in the NFL than these two teams.  They hate each other; their fans hate each other; there's just no love lost between these two every time they meet.  New England is certainly the favorite, but this game falls down the ladder a little because the Ravens hatred is enough to make them competitive and upset hungry.

11 - Minnesota over @Jacksonville

Stally: You'd think the Vikings, who are 1-6 since their bye week, couldn't sink low enough to lose to the 2-10 Jaguars.  You'd think ...

10 - Washington over @Philadelphia

Stally: The Redskins aren't favored in this one which means the Las Vegas bookies either know something that the rest of us don't or that the bookies simply don't recognize the disparity between these two teams.  The Eagles are 2-7 since their bye week and have lost three straight, so I don't see them taking down a Washington team that is pushing for the playoffs.

9 - @Kansas City over Oakland

Stally: How 'bout those Chiefs!?  Kansas City is slowly showing up on the national radar screen as a Super Bowl favorite.  They pulled out this huge win on Thursday night to jump over the Raiders into a position for the first-round bye.

8 - Denver over @Tennessee

Stally: This game will play a large role in the playoff chances for both of these teams.  The Titans can keep pace in the paltry AFC South with a win, while the Broncos are currently a game up for the final Wild Card spot but need this win before closing out against New England, Kansas City and Oakland. Denver is a championship-tested team with a healthy defense, and it should win this one.

7 - @Tampa Bay over New Orleans

Stally: It might not sound correct based on previous seasons, but believe it: the Bucs are simply a better team than the Saints.

6 - @Indianapolis over Houston

Stally: The Colts win over the hapless Jets could be taken with a grain salt, but a blowout win in the NFL is a blowout win.  I had expected Indianapolis to embarrass itself with a loss at New York, and that didn't happen.  That team showed me something that I hadn't seen recently, and I expect Indy to take a division lead over the fading Texans in this one.

5 - Arizona over @Miami

Stally: The Dolphins are close to drowning the season.  They snuck by the Rams and 49ers, both terrible teams, and then lost 38-6 to the Ravens.  The Cardinals are no great shakes right now, but they're talented enough to submerge Miami in this one.

4 - @Green Bay over Seattle

Stally: I don't really like either of these teams as much as Austen would.  I think they're vastly overrated, but the Packers defense has stepped it up the past two weeks and Aaron Rodgers is still the QB.  I expect the home team to win against a Seahawks team that's proven to be frustratingly sporadic in terms of good performances.

3 - San Diego over @Carolina

Stally: The Panthers look defeated this season, and All-Pro LB Luke Kuechly will sit out another game with a concussion.  Look for the Chargers to take care of this vulnerable Carolina team.

2 - @New York Giants over Dallas

Stally: As well as the Cowboys have played, I just don't think they're head and shoulders above the league.  The Giants are the only team to beat them, way back in Week 1, and I think they complete the season sweep in the Meadowlands.

1 - @San Francisco over New York Jets

Stally: Who the hell cares.