Santa came early on Thursday for the Dallas Cowboys, who clinched the division and NFC's best record by virtue of a Philadelphia upset over the New York Giants. Additionally, the Patriots (division and first-round bye), Seattle Seahawks (division) and Oakland Raiders (playoff berth) can all put an extra log on the fire and relax this holiday weekend, as they'll all be playing football past New Year's Day.
As per usual, Austen isn't going to have time to weigh in this week, so Elf Stally will take care of the write-up. Here's a look at the rest of the league and what I expect to unfold in Week 16 in order of confidence points:
16 - @New England over New York Jets
In Week 16 last year, the Patriots literally kicked away the conference's best record by electing to kick in overtime to the Jets, who promptly scored a game-winning touchdown. That was last year's Jets, this is this year's Jets, whose poor coach was in the hospital on the night before game day. That was also in New York, and this one is in New England. The Jets will be delivering the gifts this year.
15 - @Green Bay over Minnesota
The Packers are back to playing good football, and the Vikings (?!) ... yuck! Talk about being naughty, the Elf on the Shelf is not giving good reports on the Vikings right now.
14 - @Kansas City over Denver
The first time these two teams met, it came down to a Cairo Santos field goal that went off the upright and in as time expired (in overtime) for the Kansas City win. Denver won all of the those games last year, but the gifts haven't been as abundant this year and the offense is proving to be abysmal. The Chiefs are a noticeably better team and should put a coal in the Broncos' stocking this weekend.
13 - @Oakland over Indianapolis
Contrary to my intro, the Raiders won't be able to relax by the fireplace quite yet. With the Chiefs nipping at their toes like Jack Frost, Oakland needs to keep its foot on the accelerator to hold the division and the first-round bye. The Colts have been inconsistent and a win in the Black Hole isn't under the tree.
12 - New York Giants over @Philadelphia
Christmas weekend didn't start off as expected, as the Giants got burnt on their way up the chimney. The Eagles had been just 2-9 since a 3-0 start, so this one came as a surprise. New York will still be at least one game to the good for the first Wild Card in the NFC after this weekend, but it's certainly a disappointment to miss out on clinching a playoff spot against a team that had been playing terribly.
11 - Tennessee over @Jacksonville
The Titans are on a three-game winning streak and should have a wonderful Christmas time in Jacksonville. Side note: what's worse the Jaguars or "Wonderful Christmas Time"? (My vote is for the latter.)
10 - @Seattle over Arizona
After coming within one game of the Super Bowl last year, the Arizona Cardinals have been wretched this year at 5-8-1. The Seahawks got the gift of the worst division this season, and it's a gift that keeps on giving as they try to hold onto a first-round bye.
9 - Atlanta over @Carolina
Cam Newton (wisely) said this week that he encouraged fellow captain Luke Kuechly to sit out the rest of the season and recover his head, despite being cleared from concussion protocol. That makes sense to me, and shows that, despite not being mathematically eliminated, the Panthers consider the season to be a lost cause. Santa, in the form of Matt Ryan, will likely bring them their printed vacation tickets this weekend.
8 - Detroit over @Dallas
There's no argument who has the biggest gift under the tree: the Detroit Lions. After Dallas clinched the NFC's top seed on Thursday while sitting at home stoking the fire in front of the Giants' game, it can effectively take the next two weeks off. That means rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott, who is working beyond his usual number of games from college, and other star players should be taken off the field and rested for the playoffs. The Lions are a good football team that should be tearing apart the wrapping paper against the "rest of the best" in Dallas. Merry Christmas, Detroit!
7 - @Pittsburgh over Baltimore
The stockings will be stuffed with terrible towels in Pittsburgh. (For that matter, are the stockings made of terrible towels in Pittsburgh?) The Steelers will have the support of their home crowd in a game to clinch the division over the nemesis Ravens.
6 - Miami over @Buffalo
The Dolphins must have wished for a White Christmas because they're headed to Buffalo! They need to mind their manners to make sure that Santa is good to them, but there are a lot of gifts to be opened for Miami. It's worked its way off the naughty list since starting 1-4 by going 8-1, and backup QB Matt Moore has shown he can lead this team with Ryan Tannehill out with an injury.
5 - Tampa Bay over @New Orleans
Drew Brees and the Saints have been well behaved at times, and raised hell at others. The Bucs are like their quiet, mild-mannered younger brother that get noticed less but that Mom & Dad appreciate more. The younger brother is going to get the better gifts this Christmas.
4 - @Los Angeles over San Francisco
Santa stopped by to give the Rams a lump of coal for Christmas, which was generous of him. He didn't even stop by the 49ers' house after how badly they've misbehaved this season.
3 - Cincinnati over @Houston
No one has been more wasteful and ungrateful this year than the Texans and their overpaid (now benched) QB Brock Osweiler. May the Bengals bring them the Christmas they deserve!
2 - @Chicago over Washington
Misery loves company. The Grinches from Chicago tried their hardest to steal Christmas from Green Bay last week, and they could be successful this weekend against a Washington team desperately trying to fit into the playoff picture but not playing particularly well.
1 - @Cleveland over San Diego
Every child deserves a toy on Christmas Day, even those in Cleveland. The Chargers are beat up and headed on the road to play a Browns team that's simply trying to avoid going 0-16. This is the Browns' week. Open up your present, Cleveland!
Merry Christmas, everyone!
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