Week 13: Challenging the Bookies

Keep an eye on Jamies Winston and the Bucs as
they head to San Diego with playoff hopes alive.

Stally: Austen is out again this week, so it's just my picks for this one.  I'm taking seven underdogs according the book used on Yahoo! Fantasy, so we'll see how this turns out.  I have a feeling not well, but I'm sticking to my guns.

Here are my picks in order of confidence points:

15. @New England over Los Angeles

Stally: The Rams could frustrate Tom Brady and the Patriots (maybe, they gave up 49 points last week after having gone four straight without giving up more than 17), but their offense isn't going to score enough points to make it competitive on the road.

14. @Oakland over Buffalo

Stally: The Raiders prove each week that they're worthy of being talked about as a Super Bowl contender.  The Bills seem to be having a good season but at 6-5, they're far from elite.

13. Denver over @Jacksonville

Stally: The clock has struck midnight for Cinderella, as the Broncos aren't winning the games they managed to pull out last year.  But, they'll still roll over a hapless Jaguars team.


12. Dallas over @Minnesota

Stally: This one was closer than expected on Thursday night, with the Vikings falling a two-point conversion short of tying the game and going to overtime.  Alas, the Cowboys keep rolling, and I keep picking them.

11. @Green Bay over Houston

Stally: Let's not make it look like I'm totally back in on the Packers.  As I mentioned, I picked seven underdogs this week, and Houston isn't a good football team, so this is just a middle of the road pick for a favorite.

10. @New Orleans over Detroit

Stally: The Saints offense rolled on all cylinders, putting up 49 points against a stingy Rams defense. I think a confident offense is enough for New Orleans to win this one, but expect Detroit to keep it close throughout.

9. @Pittsburgh over New York Giants

Stally: The Giants have won six straight, but they've all been within a single score except for last week against the Browns.  The competition during that time was far from elite, and going on the road to Pittsburgh is still too tall of a task to ask for a team whose record is better than its skill.

8. @Seattle over Carolina

Stally: Just when you think the Seahawks are the Super Bowl favorite, they lay another stinky egg with a 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay.  They should win at home against a Carolina team lacking confidence, but this is the final favorite that I picked to win, so I'm not writing this off as an easy win.

7. @Cincinnati over Philadelphia

Stally: Both of these team are disappointing expectations.  I'm taking the Bengals because they're at home and have been close to pulling out wins.  They've gone winless in their last four (one tie), but have only been -10 in point differential in that span.  The Bengals have leveled off; the Eagles are still sinking.

6. Washington over @Arizona

Stally: With the way these two teams have played, the Redskins are simply better.  Arizona is giving 2.5 points because they're at home, but the standard spread for a home team is about 3 points, so it's not like the Cardinals are viewed as much of a favorite.

5. Kansas City over @Atlanta

Stally: The Chiefs flexed their muscle with a win in Denver last Sunday night.  With that, they asserted themselves as one of the league's best teams.  The Falcons are good, but I'm struggling to title them as "great," so I'll give the Chiefs the edge.

4. San Francisco over @Chicago

Stally: I fell five yards short of possibly calling the one-win 49ers upset last week.  That was in Miami against a playoff contending Dolphins team, this one is in Chicago against a terrible Bears team.  I'll go with the Niners again.

3. Tampa Bay over @San Diego

Stally: This is the most underrated game of the week.  Both of these teams are undercards in tough divisions, but both are still decent football teams.  The winner here keeps playoff hopes alive, while the loser would pretty much be out of it.

2. @New York Jets over Indianapolis

Stally: The Jets are another team (like the Bengals and 49ers) that has leveled off at the bottom.  They showed a lot of fight last week against the Patriots, and I think they're better than their pathetic three-win record.  The Colts have another level of "bad" to sink to and I think they find it in this one.

1. Miami over @Baltimore

Stally: A tie between these two wouldn't surprise me.  I really have no idea which team will win, but the Dolphins have been playing well and I believe in them a little more than the Ravens, so I'll give them the nod in the coin flip.