Sunday, January 1, 2012

Week 17: New Year, Old Rivalries

Kyle Orton's return to Denver is
just one of many storylines. (Getty)
It's been a busy time for the OXen around New Year's, which included a ski trip to Stratton Mountain in Vermont this past week.  We haven't been getting any Goal Line Stands out, we haven't been updating the Final Score, and we're posting this midway through the first slate of games.

One other thing we're not doing much of: agreeing.  Stally got all five disagreements right in Week 16, but it's going to a new level this week with a total of eight (half of the games) dissenting opinions.  As Austen and Stally close out their regular season rivalry, it's rivalry week in the NFL as well, as every game is against a divisional opponent.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Atlanta over Tampa Bay

Austen: The Bucs are banged up and playing terribly. The Falcons are at home and should be able to win using a punishing run game to give Matt Ryan enough rest going into their playoff game.

Stally: After getting blasted in New Orleans, I have to assume Atlanta will be out to win this one in hopes they can get out of a Wild Card trip back to the Big Easy.

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - San Francisco over @St. Louis

Stally: First of all, the Niners won't be resting that many of their starters.  They need to win to guarantee a coveted first-round bye.  Second of all, I'm pretty sure that even if the Niners did roll out their second stringers that they'd still beat a predominantly second-string Rams team.  Come on, who knew QB Kellen Clemens was even still in the league!?

Austen: I knew Clemens was still in the league, but I did think he was most likely on the Redskins practice squad. Either way, the Rams should not have a shot in this game, but they did beat the Saints so who knows?

Austen (Seven-Point Pick) - @New England over Buffalo

Austen: Brian Hoyer looked good enough in preseason for me to think he can beat the Bills. Last year at this time, the Jets beat the Bills with Mark Brunell and Joe McKnight playing almost the entire game. And the Bills might be worse now than they were at this point last season.

Stally: I definitely like the Patriots, but I'm wary they might rest some players, especially Brady, so I'd rather see Austen pick them.

Stally (Seven-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Carolina

Stally: The Saints haven't lost at home all season.  Considering that they need to win to even have a shot at a first-round bye, it seems to me that they won't start now.

Austen: The Saints should dominate this game on offense, but it will be up to their defense to cause Cam Newton to make some crucial mistakes, which is the main reason the Panthers still have not won many games this year.

Austen (Six-Point Pick) - Pittsburgh over @Cleveland

Austen: The Steelers have to win this game to have a shot at the Division title. I think the Steelers will not let up on the Browns one bit.

Stally: Agreed, I probably should have taken this game over New Orleans. It's hard to imagine a scenario where Pittsburgh loses.

Stally (Six-Point Pick) - @Philadelphia over Washington

Stally: The Eagles finally started playing like the team we expected them to be around Week 14.  Too bad they were 4-8 at the time and already floating belly up in the water.

Austen: Agreed. The Redksins only play well against the Giants, and the Eagles are trying to save Andy Reid's job and give LeSean McCoy the league rushing title.

Austen (Five-Point Pick) - Baltimore over @Cincinnati

Austen: As I said in the Pittsburgh game, the AFC North is still not decided, but the Ravens basically have to win this game against the Bengals to secure the division and a first-round bye. Also I am sure they would love to knock the Bengals out of the playoffs.

Stally: They might like to knock the Bengals out of the playoffs, but if that's their motivation for getting up for this game, they seriously need to reconsider. As you said, the Ravens still have a lot to play for and the situation of their opponent should be irrelevant.

Stally (Five-Point Pick) - Tennessee over @Houston

Stally: It's simple: the Titans have everything to play for and the Texans have nothing.  Houston is locked into the three-seed.  Unless you see both of Austen's last two picks going wrong in Ohio, the Texans won't jump Baltimore and/or Pittsburgh even if they win.  Meanwhile, the Titans playoff hopes come down to a mucky set of tiebreaking scenarios, but the common formula is that they'll all require a Titans win!

Austen: I think the Titans fall flat in this game and the Texans stifle Chris Johnson, making offensive yards hard to get for the Titans. I think TJ Yates proves he is the Texans best option at quarterback this far into the season.

Austen (Four-Point Pick) - Chicago over @Minnesota

Austen: The Vikings let the Redskins put up tons of points on them. They cannot stop anyone right now and there is no way the Bears' D let's up 30+ points to this team without Adrian Peterson.

Stally: There's also no way the Bears score more than about 17 points with how bad their offense is these days. I'm taking the Vikings.

Stally (Four-Point Pick) - @Denver over Kansas City

Stally: In the if-this-then-that scenarios of the AFC's remaining playoff spots, one thing is easy: Denver just needs to win to clinch its division.  Playing at home against Kansas City, if the Broncos can't win this one, they don't deserve to go anyway.

Austen: The Broncos don't deserve to go to the playoffs and I think Kyle Orton will be out for blood against the team that most recently threw him away. Also, between pass rushing outside linebacker Tamba Hali and the Chiefs' underrated corners, Tebow should make enough mistakes to give this one to the Chiefs and cost them a playoff spot.

Austen (Three-Point Pick) - @New York-G over Dallas

Austen: With Felix Jones and Tony Romo banged up, I think the Cowboys could struggle on offense in this game. Eli Manning dominated this defense last time they played, and I think this will be a similar situation. The Cowboys are going to have to find a way to put up a good amount of points in this game because they simply cannot count on their defense stopping Eli.

Stally: The Cowboys flat out don't look very good right now. The Giants are just 3-4 at home this year, but I still think that the location of the game is a big advantage.

Stally (Three-Point Pick) - Detroit over @Green Bay

Stally: Whoa!  Break from tradition to pick against the 14-1 Packers.  However, they have literally no reason to risk injury to any of their star players.  Green Bay has the top seed in the NFC locked up and, with the mark in the loss column, are no longer playing for any sort of history.  Detroit needs to win to guarantee the five spot and save itself from a probable Wild Card trip to New Orleans.

Austen: I think Matt Flynn will fill in valiantly and lead the Packers to a win over their rivals. Rodgers is amazing, but this is an unbelievably talented team and I do not think they will be sitting any of their starters besides Rodgers, so Flynn has a lot of help.

Austen (Two-Point Pick) - New York-J over @Miami

Austen: The Jets matchup well against the Dolphins and I think they will win a close one. It definitely helps that Reggie Bush will be out of this game.

Stally: It doesn't help that the Dolphins are playing much better football than the Jets right now, though. Since Miami snapped its 0-7 skid the first week of November, they're 5-3; the Jets are 4-4 in that time. I like the Dolphins in this one.

Stally (Two-Point Pick) - Indianapolis over @Jacksonville

Stally: If I'm going to pick against Green Bay at home, I might as well take the Colts on the road as well, right?  This is a reflection of how bad the Jags have gotten that I'd rather take Indy than them.

Austen: I think MJD dominates this game as he fights for the rushing title. This is the only thing that either of these teams have to fight for and I think the Colts really want that top spot in the draft.

Austen (One-Point Pick) - @Arizona over Seattle

Austen: I shocked Stally with this one as he expected me to bet against the Raiders for the sake of the Jets playoff hopes. I just think John Skelton shows that he is the quarterback of the future for the Cardinals and wins another one for this team.

Stally: Despite how much we rag on them, I think the Seahawks are actually a decently mediocre team. Nothing would better help to emphasize the various synonyms for "average" than a .500 finish. They need to win today to do that.

Stally (One-Point Pick) - San Diego over @Oakland

Stally: Like the Eagles, it's too little too late for the Chargers, but I have to assume that they'll be chomping at the bit to knock out their hated rival to the north.  The Raiders will need to win to have a chance at any sort of playoff shot, and San Diego knows that as well as anyone.

Austen: I really think the Raiders will win this game, which is why I let it fall to Stally since I thought he would side with the Chargers. The Raiders have won three straight against the Chargers after losing to them like 13 straight games or something. They have not forgot that run and they will extend their own win streak against the Chargers, who have nothing left to play for.

Pick 'Em

Detroit @ Green Bay - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Detroit
Austen: Green Bay

San Francisco @ St. Louis - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: San Francisco
Austen: San Francisco

New York-J @ Miami - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Miami
Austen: New York-J

Chicago @ Minnesota - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Minnesota
Austen: Chicago

Buffalo @ New England - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: New England
Austen: New England

Carolina @ New Orleans - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: New Orleans
Austen: New Orleans

Washington @ Philadelphia - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Philadelphia
Austen: Philadelphia

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Indianapolis
Austen: Jacksonville

Tennessee @ Houston - Sun, 1 p.m.
Stally: Tennessee
Austen: Houston

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Atlanta
Austen: Atlanta

Baltimore @ Cincinnati - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Baltimore
Austen: Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Pittsburgh
Austen: Pittsburgh

Kansas City @ Denver - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Denver
Austen: Kansas City

San Diego @ Oakland - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: San Diego
Austen: Oakland

Seattle @ Arizona - Sun, 4:15 p.m.
Stally: Seattle
Austen: Arizona

Dallas @ New York-G - Sun, 8:30 p.m.
Stally: New York-G
Austen: New York-G

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