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| The Saints crowd noise is tough for any team to deal with, especially one that has not made the playoffs since 1999. |
The beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen. The Packers, Giants, and Steelers have all won the Super Bowl as six-seeds, maybe the Bengals or Lions will do the same? Let's take it slow and take it one week at a time. Stally and I drafted our pick for this week, so here they are.
Stally: Just a note from me. I had a busy Saturday with a trip to Boston for a big hockey game against Vancouver, so sorry I wasn't able to weigh in before the games. I'm writing my comments on Sunday morning (and Austen's responses as well).
Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Detroit
Stally: The Saints haven't lost at home all season. I heard a stat on Bill Simmons' B.S. Report that the last three times the Saints were favored by double-digits at home, they covered the spread all three times. They were favored by double digits again in this one, so I took 'em. I figured the Lions would put up a fight, but of all four games, this was the only one where I couldn't see one team (Detroit) beating the other.
Austen: I completely agree with Stally, and clearly we were both right. I knew the Lions would be impressive, but there is simply no stopping Brees in New Orleans. I cannot wait to see how he plays in San Fran against probably the best defense in the league. We will see if it is offense or defense that truly wins championships.
Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @New York-G over Atlanta
Austen: After the Saints fell off the board, this was the only game in which I was not taking the clear underdog so I pulled the trigger with the Giants. The Giants' defense seems to have gotten back on track and have been playing pretty well the last few games. I think Eli Manning has yet another fantastic fourth quarter and that will be the difference in the game. Matt Ryan has not been very impressive in his two starts in the playoffs so far in his career and I do not think he can pull off a win in the windy Meadowlands.
Stally: I thought this game should have fallen to the final pick. Along the lines of what you said, this was the only game that didn't have a clear favorite. I agree with the choice of the Giants and since you went in the opposite direction on the final two games, your decision makes sense. That said, you spent a lot of point on a New York team that really isn't much better than its opponent, and finished with a lesser record (9-7 compared to Atlanta's 10-6).
Stally (Four-Point Pick) - Pittsburgh over @Denver
Stally: There's a reason why the Steelers past the first two picks despite being a clear favorite. They're somewhat injured and they're going on the road. I think that Pittsburgh is definitely the choice, but this has shaped up much like last year's New Orleans at Seattle game. The Saints were the clear favorite in that one, but weird things can happen when the underdog is playing at home. I'm going with Pittsburgh, but proceeding with caution. I'll let Austen make an argument on why Denver could win this game...
Austen: I think this game will be by far the most boring of all the Wild Card matchups. Both of these teams have struggled heavily on offense the last few games of the year. Since Ben Roethlisberger's injury, the Steelers have almost lost to the Browns twice. I do not care if that is a division rivalry because the Steelers always destroy the Browns and the Browns are one of the worst teams in the league this year. Roethlisberger is way more injured than he is letting on and his best/only decent offensive lineman, center Maurkice Pouncey, is out for this game. Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are pass rushing beasts and I really think they will be the difference in this game. With Rashard Mendenhall out for the rest of the year, the Steelers will have to rely heavily on their passing game to win this one, and I think that is what will give the Broncos the edge in this one. However, I am expecting Tebow to be decent and not turn the ball over 3+ times, which has been the reason they have lost the final three games of the season.
Austen (Four-Point Pick) - Cincinnati over @Houston
Austen: Well, I just finished watching this game blowing up in my face. I really thought Andy Dalton would out duel T.J. Yates, or at least make less mistakes than him. I was dead wrong, and Dalton threw three interceptions and had possibly the worst day of his career. The Texans defense came up huge for this team, especially J.J. Watt, who had the most impressive pick-six I have ever seen a defensive lineman pull down. Arian Foster completely dominated this game and made life easy for Yates. It will be interesting to see if he can have a similarly impressive performance against the Ravens next weekend. The game was much closer than the 31-10 final score indicated, but it was the Texans that made the plays that mattered all day long. I will be rooting for the Texans throughout the rest of the playoffs.
Stally: Really, you won't be cheering for your fellow Giants? Oh well...I picked up another stat from The B.S. Report and FootballOutsiders.com's Aaron Schatz: the Bengals ranked in the mid-20s in DVOA, while the Texans were a top-five team. I don't know that much about football's sabermetrics, but I do know enough to say that if the Bengals weighted stats rank them in the bottom third of the NFL, they're a team I should stay away from in the playoffs. Cincy played an easy schedule with a win over the 9-7 Titans being the only one against a winning team, and I wasn't surprised they didn't pull this one out on the road.
Pick 'Em (Two-Points)
Cincinnati @ Houston - Sat., 4:30 p.m. (NBC)
Stally: Houston
Austen: Cincinnati
Detroit @ New Orleans - Sat., 8:00 p.m. (NBC)
Stally: New Orleans
Austen: New Orleans
Atlanta @ New York-G - Sun, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)
Stally: New York-G
Austen: New York-G
Pittsburgh @ Denver - Sun, 4:30 p.m. (CBS)
Stally: Pittsburgh
Austen: Denver
Playoff Bracketology
Here's a look at the playoff brackets. It's one-point for a correct Wild Card Round pick, two for the Divisional Round, four for the Conference Champion and eight for a correct pick of the Super Bowl winner.
Stally
Wild Card
3. Houston over 6. Cincinnati
5. Pittsburgh over 4. Denver
--
3. New Orleans over 6. Detroit
4. New York-G over 5. Atlanta
Divisional Round
5. Pittsburgh over 1. New England
2. Baltimore over 3. Houston
--
4. New York-G over 1. Green Bay
3. New Orleans over 2. San Francisco
Conference Championships
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
New Orleans over New York-G
Super Bowl
New Orleans 38, Baltimore 20
Austen
Wild Card
6. Cincinnati over 3. Houston
4. Denver over 5. Pittsburgh
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3. New Orleans over 6. Detroit
4. New York-G over 5. Atlanta
Divisional Round
1. New England over 6. Cincinnati
2. Baltimore over 4. Denver
--
1. Green Bay over 4. New York-G
3. New Orleans over 2. San Francisco
Conference Championships
2. Baltimore over 1. New England
1. Green Bay over 3. New Orleans
Super Bowl
Green Bay 28, Baltimore 20
***If I had correctly pick the Texans in the Wild Card matchup, I would have had them going to the Super Bowl. I think they are a bad matchup for both the Ravens and the Patriots (especially the Patriots), and do not be surprised if they take their first ever playoff berth all the way to the Super Bowl.
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