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| Brady and Belichick know how to take care of business in the playoffs. (AP) |
This week, we have again some equally perplexing matchups. All of these quarterbacks left were first round picks except for Tom Brady, and two of which (Joe Flacco and Alex Smith) still have a lot left to prove to their team before they are considered the franchise quarterback. Two of the top quarterbacks in the league face off against two of the best defenses in the league and we will see if defenses can still win championships. Let's dive in.
Stally (Twelve-Point Pick) - @New England over Baltimore
Stally: The Patriots showed me something they hadn't all season in beating Denver last week. They looked rested and refocused and dominated the Broncos on both sides of the ball. You can say what you want about Tebow's struggles, but you can't ignore Brady's six touchdown passes against a defense that had been a strong point for the team.
The Ravens haven't played many great teams, and especially great quarterbacks. Sure, they put the clamps on Ben Roethlisberger twice, but they were torched by Philip Rivers just last month and that Chargers offense is similar in style to New England's. I personally don't think they were any better than T.J. Yates' Texans last weekend and would view this as a significant upset. Baltimore's only chance would be to kick the Pats in the mouth like they did in beating them two years ago in the playoffs and make them play catch up.
Score Prediction: Patriots 34-23.
Austen: The Ravens have everything they need to stop Tom Brady. They have one of the top pass rushers in the league in Terrell Suggs, who can rattle Brady and make him throw the ball earlier than he would hope. They have a cornerback who has the ability to shut down Wes Welker in Lardarius Webb, who might be the most underrated corner in the league right now. They have two playmaking safeties in Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard and combine that with soon to be Hall of Famer middle linebacker Ray Lewis and they have a pretty solid shot at shutting down those two explosive tight ends. Also, Haloti Ngata will shut down any hopes the Patriots have of utilizing their run game. Do not expect to see Aaron Hernandez running the ball numerous times because Ngata will destroy him.
The Patriots have been awful on defense all year long, so Joe Flacco has the chance to have a very good day. The Patriots should not get a false sense of confidence from holding Tim Tebow to 10 points last week because Flacco is much better than Tebow. The Patriots safeties are so bad in pass coverage you would have to assume that Flacco will look for Torrey Smith deep down the field early and often, which will open up lanes for the Ravens run game. Which brings me to Ray Rice, who could be the difference in this game much like he was a few years ago when he broke off a 70+ yard touchdown on the first play of the game, giving the Ravens a head start that the Patriots could never recover from.
All that being said, there is still a big difference between being able to beat someone and actually doing it. The Ravens have been awful on the road all year long, losing to the Titans, Jaguars, Seahawks, Chargers, and almost the Cardinals all on the road. That is not a very impressive line up since only one of those teams was above the .500 mark, which was the Titans who got to play both the Colts and Jaguars twice and even lost to the Colts one of those times!
I really think Flacco will have at best a mediocre game and cost his team a shot at the Super Bowl. The Patriots made numerous bold adjustments last week against the Broncos, like moving struggling cornerback Devin McCourty to free safety and getting wide receiver/punt returner Julian Edelman more snaps at cornerback. It are these types of Bill Belichick adjustments that make the Patriots consistently one of the best teams in the league and is why Belichick is one of the best coaches of all time. I see a 31-20 win for the Patriots, unfortunately.
Austen (Twelve-Point Pick) - New York-G over @San Francisco
Austen: After jumping off the bandwagon last week, I am right back on it with the Giants. I knew the Giants were capable of such a performance as last week, but I did not think they would be able to put it all together on the road in Green Bay and find a way to stop Aaron Rodgers with all of his weapons. The Giants' offense is playing as well as any of these offenses left in the playoffs and they are finally finding a way to run the ball efficiently, which was what killed them in a lot of games this season. However, against such a fierce 49ers run defense, it is going have to be Eli Manning once again who generates the majority of the Giants' offense if they have any hope in this one. The Giants' offense has to focus on not turning the ball over and being physical enough to hopefully tire out the 49ers' defense so that that top ranked defense might falter towards the end of the game.
On the defensive side, Alex Smith has to be looking at that Giants' defensive line and be wondering how he is going to come out of this game alive. Smith took a beating against the Saints, who do not have a single pass rusher nearly as good as the Giants third best defensive end. The 49ers' offensive line is built to run the ball, meaning they are big and physical. However, they tend to struggle in pass protection, allowing Smith to be sacked 44 times in the regular season and four more times last week. The Giants have to find a way to stop Frank Gore and the run game and put the weight of the offense on Smith, who might have a tough game against a secondary that has been getting progressively better every week.
The 49ers only hope in this game is if they can run the ball effectively and cause Eli to make some critical errors, which has basically been their game plan all season long and it has paid off with 14 wins. It should be a close one and definitely a great game to watch, especially if you like defensive play. I look into my crystal ball and see a 24-16 win for the Giants.
Stally: Ok, I think we're on similar pages here, except that you suggested at different points that both teams have only one hope of winning this game, and let me remind you that one of these teams will win tonight. I did pick the Giants this week and I am picking them again. However, I had reservations about taking the Saints to win at Candlestick last week and I'll give the 49ers the same credit this week. While I don't think the Niners will win, they have the strong defense and enough offensive playmakers to make them a tough beat against a good team.
Unfortunately for San Fran, New York is very well rounded on offense and defense, with their biggest weakness being the pass defense. Too bad for the 49ers that their passing attack is probably their biggest weakness, so they can't really exploit the Giants deficiency. I'm excited for this game as I think it will be close but that, ultimately, Eli Manning will validate the "Elite" status that's been placed on him.
Score Prediction: Giants 27-24
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