Week 17: National Focus Conference

It'll be up to Adrian Peterson to carry his team
past the Packers and into the playoffs. (Getty)

Houston, Denver, New England, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Cincinnati.  The final two have locked in their seeds, the other four will end up in some order or other, but they'll all be in the AFC playoffs next week.

The NFC is totally different.

The NFC East is as a wide-open as it was last week with a huge primetime game between Washington and Dallas being a deciding factor.  Meanwhile, the Vikings, Bears, and Giants all remain in contention, along with those two, for what will amount to just two spots: the NFC East and the second Wild Card.

The Vikings are in with a win, the Redskins are in with a win.  Should either of those two teams lose, and it's likely that at least one of them might, then all bets are off.  Instead of walking through all the tiebreakers, let's just watch the games and see how it all shakes out at about 11:30 on Sunday night.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @Denver over Kansas City

Stally: There was a time when the Broncos were 2-3, they've now won 10 straight and sit at 12-3.  The win streak against predominantly weak teams doesn't guarantee them playoff success, but they get more and more convincing as they go.  There's no way that one of the NFL's best teams loses at home to the league's worst.

Week 16: Implicating January

It wouldn't be a Stubborn OXen blog,
if we didn't gush over the return of RG3.

Now that the Jets are officially out, the AFC playoff race is about over.  There are a few teams still kicking around with a chance, but today's Cincinnati at Pittsburgh game could seal up the six teams if the Bengals win.

The NFC, on the other hand, has five teams tied at 8-6 and there's not nearly enough space for all of them in January.  It should create an exciting final two weeks, especially in the NFC East, where three teams are tied atop the standings, with little room for error.

In general, the OXen agreed on many of this week's games, although they again seem at odds when it comes to the New York teams.  That, and Stally expected both 12-2 teams to begin to take the rest of the regular season off (and maybe the postseason, as well).

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Green Bay over Tennessee

Austen: I had to watch the Titans last week attempt to hand the game to my hapless Jets. And that was in Tennessee. I simply cannot see a scenario in which the Titans win this game in Green Bay.

Stally: While I liked him at the University of Washington, I've never thought Jake Locker would make a great pro QB and he's done little to change my mind about that.  At some point, the Titans are going to need to put their future in a different QB's hands.

Week 15: A Week Without Confidence

Tom Brady will look to overpower his boyhood
favorite team on Sunday Night Football.

This might be the toughest week we've ever had to pick in the two years we've done this blog.  Both Austen and I found ourselves saying, "I can't believe I'm taking this game this high, but..."  Those picks were often responded to with a head-shaking agreement from the other.

It will certainly be an exciting week to watch with so much uncertainty and such high playoff stakes.  The AFC seems to be honing in on its teams, as three division leaders have already punched playoff tickets, but the NFC is still wide open with three weeks to go.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @New England over San Francisco

Stally: I'll be honest.  San Francisco doesn't deserve to have so much confidence put against them.  However, this is one of, if not the, hardest weeks to predict, and New England rarely ever fails me.  I'll put the full confidence in my boys winning this one at home, especially with some winter conditions expected.

Austen: This is a cocky move by Stally since the 49ers might be the most talented team in the NFL. However, the Patriots rule December and it is hard to pick against them at home no matter the opponent. I think the Pats pull out a close one, but this is too high for this matchup.

Week 14: Confidence of the OXen

The Broncos made Austen look smart
with Thursday night's win. (AP)

After a few weeks of indecision, Austen and I have our swagger back.  Many of Week 14s' games are shaping up to be lopsided affairs, and the first pick of the week is already in the bag after a Thursday romp.

There will be a little disagreement near the end, but neither of us are predicting any outlandish upsets.  Most of the opposing picks come in games that both of us identify as coin flips to begin with.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - Denver over @Oakland

Austen: Well this worked out just fine. How predictable was that? Carson Palmer turned the ball over multiple times, Darren McFadden was explosive but inconsistent and once again got injured, and Peyton Manning threw for over 300 yards.

Stally: I had seven games that I marked down as more or less sure picks.  This was near the bottom of that list, but I have little argument.  My biggest hesitation was taking the Thursday night team on the road, but there was just too much disparity in talent.  Can someone tell me why the mediocre-at-best Raiders have fired their head coaches after going 8-8 in each of the last two years?  Do they enjoy trying to find a coach that can lead them back to 4-12 futility?

Week 13: The Mayhem Continues

Tom Brady feast on AFC East. (Getty)

It's a tough week.  Austen and I seemed to agree on many of the picks, but even worse than last week, we had a lot of trouble ranking the games.

There aren't a whole lot of shoo-ins this week.  My first three picks all seemed logical, but all three teams are on the road, and that always causes some pause.  After going 12-2 in two of three weeks, I went a dismal 6-10 in an unsure week.  Austen didn't fair too much better at just 8-8, and both of us understand this could be another rough week with a lot of question marks.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - New England over @Miami

Stally: With so much uncertainty, I'll go back to the well.  The Patriots have failed me very infrequently over the last decade-plus, so I'll go with them.  They also never seem to lose late in the regular season and I think Austen has more of a statistic on that.

Austen: Since 2010, the Patriots are 19-0 in the second half of the season. In a league with so much parity, that is simply astonishing. This stat just shows you how incredible Bill Belichick is at making adjustments to his personel. The Dolphins shocked me last week by beating the Seahawks, but Seattle has only won one away game all season (against the hapless Carolina Panthers). The Fins have no shot in this one.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Green Bay over Minnesota

Austen: Greg Jennings is back which only makes this offense even more difficult to defend. I cannot remember Aaron Rodgers having two bad games in a row, so look for him to bounce back in an important divisional game after a stunning loss to the Giants.

Stally: The Packers got mopped up and poured down the drain in the Meadowlands last weekend.  They're also just one game better than Minnesota (7-4 compared to 6-5).  However, the Vikings looked miserable in a 28-10 road loss to Chicago last week, and I put this game in the same category, as it's a road trip to a strong division rival. Don't expect this one to be close.

Week 12: Football Feast

Redskins' tight end Fred Davis has officially dubbed
RG3 as "Black Jesus" for his miraculous rookie season.

I want to start this article by wishing everyone out there a Happy Thanksgiving. Despite making my job more difficult, I am thankful for such a great slate of NFL games this week. Being able to sit down and watch three solid NFL games in a row on a Thursday is a great luxury that almost never comes along. Remember how many years we all had to sit through the Lions getting massacred on Thanksgiving? I am by no means a Lions' fan, but thank RG3 the Lions are relevant again.

Speaking of "Black Jesus" (thank you fellow Trojan Fred Davis for giving RG3 such an epic nickname), watching the hottest rookie in the NFL go into Dallas to possibly spoil the Cowboys' playoff hopes is one of the more interesting matchups of the week (more on that later).

With so much on the line this week with tons of divisional matchups, and some great grudge matches from last year's playoffs, there should be some serious dog fights. Here are the teams that Stally and I believe will have something extra to be thankful for.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - Denver over @Kansas City

Austen: Peyton Manning is MVP worthy once again. The Chiefs are starting Brady Quinn. I am still unsure how Quinn is in any way an improvement on Matt Cassel. Say what you want about Cassel, but he actually has talent and his teammates respect him. I cannot say either about Quinn. Home field advantage will not save the Chiefs this week.

Stally: With the rivalry college game this weekend, I'd be interested in further discussing why USC's Cassel is a better choice than Notre Dame's Quinn, but who cares?  The Chiefs suck regardless.

Week 11: A Quiet Excitement

If you need three reasons to watch Jacksonville, here
you go ... too bad they're on the road this weekend. (Getty)

It really doesn't look like a great slate of games, but there's reason to be intrigued this weekend.  Acclaimed veteran Tom Brady goes against the young stud that is Andrew Luck.  The Steelers and the Ravens have their classic grudge match.  And, the Bears and the 49ers will size up their respective abilities in what could end up as a playoff rematch in January.

It might not be the best week for the NFL, but it's certainly not a snoozer week.  We know enough about how each team is doing to understand which of these games will have playoff implications and which clunkers we can skip.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @Houston over Jacksonville

Stally: Houston is a 15.5-point favorite.  I believe that's the highest spread of the season and it makes sense as there's an 8-1 team hosting a 1-8 team.  This was a no brainer.

Austen: Nothing more that needs to be said.

2012 Season Draft

It's probably only a matter of time before
Tom Brady wins another Lombardi Trophy.

Austen and Stally conducted the draft in person when Stally visited New York City on the weekend the NFL opened the season.  The picks below are reflected from that original "Season Draft."

Of course, the two got busy with Stally managing to type up his thoughts two weeks later and Austen not getting to do his part until a return from Europe nearly a month after the draft.  Even at that, Stally didn't get to responding until a while later, but we've kept the thoughts to Week 4 or earlier to avoid any time lapse.

1. New England Patriots (Austen, Pick 1)

Austen: The Pats are the best team in the league. Not sure weather or not they will be in the Super Bowl this year, but I think they have the best shot to get there out of any team in the league. They made the SB last season with an awful defense and their D should be significantly better with the additions of two all star rookies. Their offense has even more weapons and two developing running backs to help add balance. This team is scary good. Sometimes I really hate being a Jets fan.

Stally: But, I love being a Patriots fan!  The team should be better than last year with a young defense that was greatly in need of experience last year.

Week 10: A Deciding Week

It's been a season of reflection for the Chiefs. (AP)

Week 10 presents several games that should help sculpt the remainder of the season.  Austen and Stally found several easy, lopsided games to pick, but about halfway through the slate of games, disagreement abounded quickly.

This week presents some very important games.  Who is better Chicago or Houston?  Will is be Dallas or Philadelphia that keeps its fading hopes alive in the NFC East?  The same conflict goes for NFC North rivals Detroit and Minnesota.

At such a crucial point in the season, it's time for the good teams to emerge and the others to fade, but there is debate over which teams fall into which categories.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Pittsburgh over Kansas City

Week 9: Bye Week

As these two pretty boys enjoy their bye weeks, the SOB boys
allow themselves to agree with each other on this week's matchups.

Trash talking will be at a minimum this week as both Stally's Patriots and Austen's Jets are on bye this week.  In general the slate of games aren't overly enticing, so it's hard to expect either OXen will be glued to the TV all day, but it's getting to be that time of year where teams start to define their season.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick: @Houston over Buffalo

Stally: The Texas have been the cream of the AFC crop and that Bills are, well, the Bills.  I didn't have to think about this one for very long.

Austen: Right pick. I can't imagine the Bills staying in this one for long. Arian Foster could have a career day.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick: @Green Bay over Arizona


Austen: The Packers pass rush will win this game single handedly. Clay Matthews is second in the league in sacks and the Cardinals have no one (or no two) who ever have a chance of slowing this beast down. Aaron Rodgers could continue to struggle a bit and this could still be a blow out.


Stally: I have to disagree with the statement that Aaron Rodgers has struggled.  He enters the game with 21 TDs and four INTs and the Packers are back on track.  They should roll in this one.

Week 8: The CBA (Collective Blogging Agreement)

Rodgers and the Packers should be doing
a touchdown dance on Sunday.

It seems like the OXen are in general agreement this week with just a couple of exceptions.  Austen was headed to the Jets-Dolphins game early so he got all his thoughts in before Stally shared any.  Luckily after the draft phone call and a follow up 30-minutes on why USC sucks, they OXen are on the same page.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick: @Green Bay over Jacksonville

Austen: This was an easy one. I bet against the Jags with my second pick when they were playing the Raiders on the road. They are now down their only good player (MJD) and their starting quarterback. And Aaron Rodgers has been unstoppable.

Stally: I agree there were two easy picks this week and I also put this as my top choice.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick: @Chicago over Carolina

Stally: This was choice 1B to Austen's 1A.  No matter who he took, I knew I had a great pick remaining.  Carolina is just awful and they won't be any good against such a balanced Bears team.

Week 7: Rest or Recovery

Tom Brady doesn't even need to by stock to own the Jets! (Getty)

Both OXen anticipated a rough week last week.  For all intensive purposes, especially in Stally's case, the only thing they really predicted correctly was that they would both struggle picking any of the games.  Thank goodness the Falcons held onto a three-point win over the Raiders or it might have been the end of this blog due to incompetence.

This week, six teams are on bye.  However, while the number of games appears to be cut down, there are plenty of good ones to watch and that starts with the signature game of this blog.  It comes as little surprise who Stally's middle-finger pick to Austen is this week.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @New England over New York-J

Stally: It's a tradition now!  Both of the last two years, I've had the honor of picking the Patriots first-overall when playing home against the Jets.  It might be arrogance on my part, sure, but I know the Patriots are going to win this game, and I like to remind Austen how much better I consider my team than his.

Week 6: Questionable Calls

Matty-Ice and the Falcons are flying high. (AP)

Stally's Editor's Note: It doesn't look like Austen is going to get his picks in before kickoff as he's going to the Jets game, so here are my thoughts.  I also did zero proof reading as I too have plans today.

With the exception of one game, it's easy to see most all of this week's games going to the underdog.  That made it particularly hard for the Stubborn OXen to pick their poison and it didn't take more than a last second field goal in Tennessee on Thursday night to begin gumming up the words.

We'll start with any easy one, but it's likely that Austen and Stally will soon be back to disagreeing with one another one many of the other games.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick - @Atlanta over Oakland

Austen: Well since I had no time this weekend to get to these picks, I will be reviewing my picks with a whole lot of hindsight. Here it goes. I did not think there was anyway the Falcons would lose to home to one of the worst teams in the league who were going to have to travel 2500 miles for this one, and I was right, but barely. The Falcons squeaked out a win and got me my seven points this week.

Stally: This is a pretty clear pick.  The Falcons are very good, even better at home, and Oakland isn't any good anywhere.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @San Francisco over New York-G

Stally: This is the second week in a row that an early pick has induced a "reaaaaly!?" out of Austen (last week it was New England over Denver).  That's not to say Austen isn't in agreement, he just sees it as an over-draft.  Muffed Kyle Williams punts aside, I don't see much of a way the Giants win this one on the road, so I'm taking the 49ers first because I'm more confident they'll win that most any of the other offerings.

Austen: Well Stally was straight up dead wrong. The Giants surprised the nation on this one. I thought there was a chance they would pull off a win, but I do not think anyone could have predicted that they were going to dominate the 49ers the way they did. They made the 9ers look like the team they were before Jim Harbaugh came to town (and while Stally was working for this sorry franchise). Bravo Giants, bravo.

Week 5: The Return of the Jet-i

Hey, it's Stally.  I'm sure everyone is excited that Austen being back from Europe.  I know I am as it makes my opinions look a lot smarter when contrasted to his weird ideas.

I got the Rams right again on Thursday night (the second week in a row I had them and Austen didn't), so let's see if I can keep rolling as we start Sunday!

Stally believes the 49ers' stifling defense should shut
down a struggling Bills' offense in San Francisco.

Stally's Seven-Point Pick - @San Francisco over Buffalo

Stally: You have one of the best teams at home against one of the lesser teams.  This is a pretty easy one, the Bills aren't gonna beat the Niners at "The 'Stick," no way, no how.

Austen: Unless Mario Williams has the game of his life, the 49ers are taking this one.

Austen's Seven-Point Pick - Green Bay over @ Indianapolis

Austen: The Packers have to win games like this one in order to get back atop the division. I think they will take care of business on the road, especially with Dwight Freeney dinged up.

Stally: I didn't have the Packers as high as this, but I can't argue.  If Green Bay is going to get back to being an elite team every week, this one shouldn't be close.

Week 4: The Auto-Draft

It wasn't surprising that the Ravens
knocked out the Browns. (AP)

It's just me, Stally, this week.  Austen is still in Europe, so he emailed me his picks based on confidence points, so that we could do an auto-draft.

The auto-draft was setup so that each guy always took whatever game he had with the highest amount of confidence points remaining.

Austen's Eight-Point Pick - @Baltimore over Cleveland

Confidence: Austen - 15, Stally - 15

Austen and I both gave the Ravens 15 confidence points this week and were rewarded with a win.  Props to the Browns to keep it within seven, but a Thursday night game with a disparity of talent that favors the home team is an easy choice.

Stally's Eight-Point Pick - @Houston over Tennessee

Confidence: Stally - 14, Austen - 13

I'm completely out on Tennessee.  I still think Houston has some flaws that might be exposed against a better team, but they won't see that in the AFC South.  Austen seemed to share a similar feeling on this game.

Week 3: Austen Goes to Europe

After a decade of futility, the 49ers definitely
have their traditional swagger back. (Getty)

Wow!  We actually got our picks out early this week.

It wasn't without the usual snags.  Stally's working about 16 hours a day as NASCAR is in town at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.  Meanwhile, Austen claims to very swamped with life as he prepares for a week-long trip to Europe (don't we all feel bad for him).

However, the crunch meant that the OXen actually had to push out the predictions early this week and you might actually get to read them before the 4 o'clock slate of games on Sunday!

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - San Francisco over @Minnesota

Stally: I'd have to power rank the 49ers as Number 1 in the NFL right now.  The Vikings, on the other hand, needed overtime to beat the Jags at home and lost to the Colts.  There's a huge disparity here.

Austen: The 49ers might not be the best team in the league, but they could play a pretty terrible game and still knock off a Vikings team that is in the bottom three in the league.

Week 2: Don't Overreact

Robert Griffin III gives Redskins fans a lot to cheer about. (Getty)

Ok, so we've seen one week of games.  It's pretty easy overreact to the outcomes, but keep in mind that some teams probably came out fired up (the New York Jets) and some teams came out flat (the New York Giants).

It's not a long season.  There's no time to slump in the NFL, but there are 16 games and every team is still capable of going 15-1, so it's way too early to overreact to one poor outcome.


Stally (Eight-Point Pick) – @New England over Arizona

Stally:  Tom Brady at home or Kevin Kolb on the road?  This was a pretty easy choice to make.

Austen: Kolb is terrible and Brady is a champ. I'm having a hard time seeing a Cards win.

Week 1: Let's Kickoff the Season!

Neither of us have any idea why Ryan Tannehill is starting. (Getty)

We're back!  The Stubborn OXen had a big get together in New York City this weekend to watch USC outlast Syracuse in football.  We also had the chance to fire back up the blog.

We have drafted our teams for the season and will share them in the next few days, but in preparation for Sunday kickoff, let's take a look at this week's picks.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) – @Houston over Miami

Austen: Has anyone watched Hard Knocks? The Fins are awful. Texans are my sleeper team in the AFC. All points to a Houston win.

Austen's Goal Line Stand of the Summer

GOAL LINE STAND:

Has Everyone Forgotten About Reggie Wayne?

Reggie Wayne may be getting older, but he still
has some of the best hands in the NFL.

This has become an epidemic in the NFL. Has everyone forgotten how good Reggie Wayne is and how he could very likely end up in the Hall of Fame?

This phenomenon seemingly started in 2010. When Peyton Manning was struggling, everyone blamed the fact that all his weapons were injured. That season, Wayne played all 16 games, caught 111 passes for 1,355 yards, and was an All Pro selection. Those numbers are off the chart, yet he got little praise for his production despite being double covered all season long.

Why does he get written off just because he was fortunate enough to play with one of the all time greats at the quarterback position? Does Jerry Rice get flack for being teamed up with Joe Montana? Would Wayne put up the same numbers had he been playing with Rex Grossman? Obviously not, but that does not mean his production should go unnoticed. 

TOP 32 QBS FOR 2012

I love to do this every year because there is so much turnover from year to year. Players fall off the map (Donovan McNabb) and new faces jump into the mix (two players who have yet to even play a snap in the NFL). There are a lot of differing opinions when talking about quarterbacks but here is my list of guys who I would want leading my franchise in 2012 if I had to take them just for one season.

1. Aaron Rodgers (Last year: 3): If you could design the perfect quarterback, it would be Aaron Rodgers. He has a huge arm, he can accurately throw the ball anywhere on the field, and he is a threat to run the ball at any time. Rodgers is so good that despite going 15-1 and having the most impressive regular season of any quarterback ever, he is extremely disappointed with himself because he came up short in the playoffs. Look for him to be even more focused in 2012 on winning a championship. He could be the best quarterback the league has ever seen if he can continue to play anywhere near the same level as he has been the last two years.
2. Tom Brady (Last year: 1): Brady might be the best quarterback the NFL has ever seen, but Rodgers edges him out barely because of his superior athleticism. No one makes mediocre players look like Hall of Famers like Brady does. And most importantly, he still wins a ton of games in both the regular season and the playoffs.
3. Drew Brees (Last year: 4): Brees shattered Dan Marino’s passing record last season and people barely noticed thanks to Rodgers’ season. Brees always finds a way to improvise when a play breaks down and makes something out of nothing. He is helped by a great system and a lot of role players who fill specific needs, but do not underestimate how good this guy is. The Saints need to pay him whatever number he is asking and be happy they have a quarterback who will single handedly win them 10 games a year. 
4. Eli Manning (Last year: 9): People thought I was giving Eli favoritism when I ranked him at 9^th last year. Little did we know that 9^th was way too low for this guy. Eli carried his team to yet another Super Bowl in which they were an underdog in almost every playoff game. There is not a quarterback in the league who was more clutch when his team needed him most, but he needs to be more consistent before he jumps into the top three.
5. Ben Roethlisberger (Last year: 6): Big Ben continues to develop as a quarterback and is getting better every year. His size and his arm strength make him almost impossible to game plan around. He can break three tackles in the pocket and then throw up a perfect deep pass to one of his many speed receivers. He gives the Steelers the chance to score on every play. Again, more importantly, he wins a ton of games every year.

BEST MOVES OF THE 2012 NFL DRAFT

There were an incredible amount of trades in this year’s NFL Draft, some of them good, some of them not so good. I will stay positive for now and go over my favorite moves of last weekend’s draft.

The Redskins mortgage their future to get Robert Griffin III:

Robert Griffin III has been compared to Hall
of Fame quarterback Steve Young, but he
has a long road to get to that elite level.

The expression goes, “You can never give up too much to get a franchise quarterback.” Griffin has a lot of work to do in order to become a franchise quarterback, but he has all the skills, and more, to become one of the top quarterbacks in this league. He also has the benefit of a solid defense and an owner who spent a ton of money in free agency to get some offensive weapons to surround him with.

It may take longer than most people think for Griffin to get up to speed in the NFL, since people are already talking about a Cam Newton-esque rookie campaign. Let’s not forget how rare it is to see that type of a performance from a rookie signal caller. Expectations need to be tempered a bit for 2012, but I have very little doubt that Griffin will have a long and successful career.

With Morris Claiborne falling to the sixth pick, the Cowboys make a bold move to land the corner they coveted all along:

People are questioning this move simply because it is the Cowboys making this move. If Bill Belichick traded up with both of his first rounds pick, people would be saying it was the move of the draft to land possibly the best defensive player of this rookie class. Let’s not forget how incredibly talented Claiborne is and how badly the Cowboys needed to improve their defensive backfield after another disappointing season.

No one is happier than Rob Ryan about the Cowboys' move to
land Morris Claiborne. Maybe he will have less to be angry
about in 2012 thanks to a much improved defensive backfield.

Rob Ryan’s defense needs cover corners just to be able to function. We saw that last season when his defense gave up huge play after huge play, causing them to miss the playoffs yet again. The Cowboys gave a large contract to Brandon Carr in free agency, but even Jerry Jones admitted that they over paid him because corner was such a glaring need for his team. That is not much of a ringing endorsement from your owner, so they were clearly looking to add more talent at the position.

While giving up a valuable second round pick to get Claiborne is a heavy price, Claiborne has the potential to be a shutdown corner in this league for a long time. I am pretty sure the Jets do not regret trading up to grab Darrelle Revis in the first round. I do not think the Cowboys will be disappointed either.

BIGGEST SURPRISES OF DAY 1

Wow was Round 1 an absolute mess or what? There was a record setting nine trades in this first round (two of which came before the draft even started). I knew a lot of trades were coming this year, but I did not expect anything like this. However, it was not the trades or even the players teams traded up to get that surprised me. Let’s go over the most baffling topics from Day 1 of the 2012 NFL Draft.

The Seahawks draft Bruce Irvin with the 15^th overall pick:

Can Bruce Irvin put his past behind him and find a way to
be as productive in the NFL as he was at West Virginia?

Besides the sheer amount of trades on Day 1, this might have been the biggest surprise tonight. Irvin had been considered by many as possibly the best pure pass rusher in the draft, but at 240 pounds, no one really knew what position he would play at the next level. Irvin is not a three down player since he is questionable against the run and in coverage, so it will be hard for him to become a full time starter (not what you want to hear about a top 15 pick).

Most had considered Irvin a second or third round pick because of a ton of character concerns (he spent two weeks in jail for breaking into a drug dealer’s house), so taking him in the first half of Round 1 made little to no sense. Pete Carroll did something similar last season in over drafting two offensive linemen, so I guess I should not be so surprised.

Irvin will be used in a similar role as Defensive Rookie of the Year Von Miller in Denver, but I cannot see him having even close to the type of season Miller had last year, or even being on the field as often as Miller was due to his limitations. This is the type of bold move that tends to get coaches fired. Luckily for Carroll, he is good friends with the Seahawks’ owner so he has a long leash. However, that leash might get tested this season if Carroll’s picks don’t start panning out.

The Titans get offensive with Kendall Wright:

Drafting Kendall Wright seemed like a bit of a stretch at 20,
but maybe the Titans realized that to stay competitive in
this pass happy league, they needed to stock pile weapons.

This is a team that lost a ton of talent on defense in free agency. With so many great defensive line prospects left on the board, it was shocking to see them take an undersized speed receiver. Kenny Britt is recovering from an injury, but when healthy, he is an explosive big receiver. Nate Washington had a good year filling in for Britt and is a speed receiver similar to Wright. Even third year player Damian Williams showed potential as a slot receiver and has the potential to be a decent number two receiver.

So why would they add a receiver when they have so many other needs? Some will say that Wright has added value because he can return kickoffs and punts. However, Marc Mariani fills that role for the Titans and even went to the Pro Bowl as a returner in his rookie season (2010). So that does not add much value for the Titans.

Even if the Titans are afraid Britt will not fully recover from his injury, Wright does not add much of a new dimension to the offense because of his similarities to Washington. Why not trade down and get a big receiver like Stephen Hill if you wanted to add a receiver?

Michael Irvin called this pick right before the draft started, so maybe there is more going on in Tennessee than I cannot see. However, this was one of the picks that really stood out to me.

The free fall of offensive lineman:

Tackles Matt Kalil and Riley Reiff were the top two
offensive lineman taken in the draft, yet somehow almost
20 picks separated the two of them on draft day. Why?

After Matt Kalil got snapped up by the Vikings with the fourth overall pick, we did not see an offensive lineman come off the board until 23 to the Lions. Riley Reiff was considered a top ten pick, but fell to the Lions at 23. David DeCastro was waiting there for the Steelers at 24 despite being considered one of the best guard prospects in years. Jonathan Martin, Cordy Glenn, Mike Adams, and Peter Konz were all considered to be first round talent, yet none of them heard their names called on Day 1.

With the NFL becoming a passing league, it is hard to believe that the guys who keep the quarterbacks off the ground would be devalued. That leads me to believe that these players simply are not all that talented. Reiff is a good prospect, but many think his arms are too short to play left tackle and is a better fit on the right side. Since left tackles are in much higher demand than right tackles, that pushed him down. Martin also looks to be a better fit on the right side and Glenn might be best suited to play guard. Adams fell out of the first round due to his poor work ethic and character concerns.

The one thing that all of these prospects besides Adams have in common is that they all seem to be better run blockers than pass blockers. So maybe it is not that these guys are not talented, but just old school players who do not fit what teams are looking for right now. With less of an emphasis on the run game, mauling run blockers have lost a lot of appeal.

I think there will be a run on these players at the start of the second round because a lot of teams at the top of the draft have offensive line issues. While these guys might have fallen out of the first round, the early run on these players might actually push up some lineman who were thought to be later round talents into rounds two and three. It should be an interesting Day 2. 

ACE's 2012 NFL MOCK DRAFT FINAL TAKE

Last chance to get my final picks in. Here they are, with some interesting changes.

1. COLTS: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

LAST MOCK: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

This has been a done deal for months, let’s move on.

2. REDSKINS: QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

LAST MOCK: QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Mike Shanahan said there is a 99.9% that they are taking RG3. That .1% is if Griffin gets arrested, injured, or dies before the Redskins pick. Let’s just assume none of those things are going to happen.

3. VIKINGS: OT Matt Kalil, USC

LAST MOCK: OT Matt Kalil, USC

Like I said last week, the Vikings will try to trade this pick because this team is simply awful. However, no one will trade up this high for anyone left on the board. Say what you want about Kalil, but he is the only surefire left tackle in this draft and is the Vikings only option to lock up that position in 2012.

4. BROWNS: RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

LAST MOCK: RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

Richardson is the best player available and the Browns have a huge hole to fill with the loss of Peyton Hillis. I would be shocked to see anyone else at this spot unless Richardson goes ahead of this pick.

5. BUCCANEERS: CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

LAST MOCK: CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

My top five stays intact with the Bucs taking Claiborne. Every team needs three good corners and with rumors of Ronde Barber moving to safety, corner becomes an even bigger need for a team in a division with a ton of offensive talent. The Bucs might move up with the Vikings to grab Richardson, but corners are way harder to find than running backs and they will not have to trade up to get a future Pro Bowler in Claiborne. 

2012 NFL Mock Draft ACE Take 1

We are getting so close to the NFL Draft that it was 100% necessary to put in my first mock draft of the season. As always, I will mock it up as if there were going to be no trades, which I am sure there will be plenty of on draft day. Look for the Vikings and the Browns to trade down early, but after that is anyone’s guess on who will be making trades (not a single mock draft last season had the Jags trading up to the 10^th pick to nab Blaine Gabbert). Here is my best guess at who is going where.

1. COLTS: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

This is a no brainer. People have been talking about this since Week 4 of last season. The Colts get the best quarterback prospect since, you guessed it, Peyton Manning. The Colts have to be the luckiest franchise in the NFL. Maybe it has something to do with that horseshoe on their helmets…

2. REDSKINS: QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor

This is already set in stone as well. Griffin has already been seen doing events in the Washington area and has been deemed the savoir of a once proud franchise. Let’s hope Mike Shanahan manages him better than he did Donovan McNabb.

3. VIKINGS: OT Matt Kalil, USC

The Vikings will look to trade this pick, but they are in desperate need at a franchise left tackle to help out last year’s first round pick, quarterback Christian Ponder. If they cannot get a great deal for this pick, they will gladly take Kalil and he will man the left side of their offensive line for the next decade.

4. BROWNS: RB Trent Richardson, Alabama

I really have no idea what the Browns will do here, but it will send a ripple effect throughout the rest of this draft. Richardson is the highest rated prospect on the board and they have a need at running back with Peyton Hillis gone for Kansas City. Wide receiver is a big need, but there is way more depth at that position and Richardson is the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. Ryan Tannehill will definitely be considered here, but they will realize that Colt McCoy should get at least one offseason as their starting quarterback before they completely give up on him.

5. BUCCANEERS: CB Morris Claiborne, LSU

No one will be happier than LeGarrette Blount when Richardson goes to the Browns, as he has publicly said that he “would not be happy” if the Bucs take Richardson. Cornerback is a huge need for this team, even with the signing of Eric Wright, and Claiborne could be a Pro Bowler for years to come. The Bucs’ defense needs to make huge improvements before this team can take the next step with all of their expensive free agent acquisitions. 

The Saints Deserve to be Crucified

Austen's Goal Line Stand (Easter Edition):

Saints' head coach Sean Payton will have plenty of time to
hang out with the likes of Taylor Swift now that he has
officially been banned for the entire 2012 NFL season.

Shame on Sean Payton.
Shame on Mickey Loomis.
Shame on Drew Brees.
And Gregg Williams should never be allowed back in the NFL.

It is all too fitting that the Saints get "crucified" by the NFL one day after Easter Sunday. I hope everyone in New Orleans had a good weekend because it is going to be a long year for Saints' fans.

I do not take the far reaching effects of the Saints' punishments lightly because I have had a great deal of respect for all of these guys and the job they did turning around what seemed to be a cursed franchise. I, like the majority of the country, was rooting for the Saints in their run to their lone Super Bowl victory. All four of these guys did an amazing job turning this team around from a perennial loser to the best team in football. They gave an entire community that needed a ray of hope something to root for and be proud of.

All that being said, this "bounty scandal" has tarnished all of that and all four of these guys are at least guilty of misconduct of the highest degree. I do not care what Payton, Loomis, and Brees say, they all knew this was going on and they decided to do nothing about it. This type of behavior cannot happen on such a consistent basis without the leaders of this team knowing about it.

Many people forget that Payton gave up half a million dollars of his own salary just to get Williams to come aboard and fix one of the worst defenses in the league. That first season with the Saints, Williams' defense lead the league in turnovers and the Saints won the Super Bowl. The move looked like a stroke of genius at the time, but now only further proves Payton's guilt.

Uhhh..... What?

Austen's Goal Line Stand:

I have not done one of these in a long time now, but I think there are two head-scratchers from last night that need to be addressed immediately: The Redskins trade for the second overall pick with the Rams and the Jets sign Mark Sanchez to a three year extension.

Could this be the future for Robert Griffin III and the Redskins?
Not unless they they find a way to add a lot of talent in order to
help Griffin turn around one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Let's start off with the the Redskins. To trade up just four spots in this year's draft they traded away a second round pick in this year's draft and first round picks in 2013 and 2014. That is a lot of extremely valuable picks to draft a guy (Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III) who has never even played in a prostyle offense.

I recently wrote an article about what the Redskins should do this offseason, and I laid out my reasons why Griffin was the best fit for the Skins and the future of the organization. However, giving up three first round picks and a second round pick for one guy is putting a lot of trust in Griffin to not be good, but great. For this to pay off for Washington, Griffin will have to become at least a top 10 quarterback within the first three years in the league, and that is a lot of pressure for a guy who just turned 22.

Super Bowl XLVI: Who Wins?

Tom Brady and Eli Manning will play
big roles in determining the winner.

Stally: The Patriots win this game because...

Two words: Tom, Brady.

Even as a diehard Jets fan (except he's apparently also a Giants fan), Austen will admit that Brady is the best quarterback ever to play the game.  That's obviously not something with which I'm going to argue, as I've had the privilege of watching him lead my team to what will be its fifth Super Bowl in his 11 seasons.

At the start of Brady's playoff career, he was unstoppable as he and coach Bill Belichick went a perfect 9-0 on the way to three Super Bowls.  However, he hasn't been quite the same since.  Statistically, he's had better seasons and set the record for most touchdown passes in a season with 50.  He also led his team to an 18-0 record that same 2007 season, but lost to these Giants in an embarrassing 17-14 stumble in Super Bowl XLII.

Super Bowl Coin Toss

Will we see a lot of this in Super Bowl XLVI or will the
Patriots' quick pass offense keep Tom Brady upright?

Stally: Tomorrow, people will bet on everything, including the Coin Toss.  However, if you know which OXen to listen to (hint: probably the one that's missed only two of ten playoff games as opposed to the one that went 0-4 in the Divisional Round [that was Austen]), we'll take the need to gamble on anything right out of the equation.

Obviously, I'll be picking my New England Patriots and Austen will be picking his (?) New York Giants (?), so we can skip that formality and discuss where we think the biggest matchups will be and how they will play out.


In Super Bowl XLII, the Giants made Tom Brady uncomfortable and they have similar traits to that defensive front now that they did then.  However, the Patriots offense is totally different.  This isn't a team that looks to hit Randy Moss 60 yards down field for a touchdown.  This offense is built around the quickness and strength of its tight ends and the precision of Wes Welker's short route running. Who wins this battle, Austen?  Can the Patriots offensive line hold up long enough to allow Brady to get the ball out or will it again be a long day for The Great One?

The Season's Overtime Coin Toss

Even Norv Turner is puzzled about
how he's still coaching the Chargers.

Stally: Ok, so we started this right after the regular season ended, but Austen wrote so much that it took me a while to go through his answer and come up with my own.  Some of the questions might sound dated, but they should still provide insight.

Let's take a look at some of the recent coaching and/or managerial changes as the carousel swings around in full circle.  For each, I'm interested in a A-F grade on the choice to either fire or retain the person and a brief explanation on the grade.

Excluding the midseason firings that we discussed at the time, here's what we've seen (as of Wed. after the regular season):

Conference Championship Week

Brady and Belichick know how to take
care of business in the playoffs. (AP)

Austen: Wow, what an atrocious week I had going 0-4 with my picks in the Divisional Round. The Saints' offense went turn over crazy, the Broncos showed why I thought they were going to be one of the worst teams in the league this season, T.J. Yates threw three interceptions (two of which were thanks to some horrible decision making), and the Giants surprised even me with what they are capable of doing.

This week, we have again some equally perplexing matchups. All of these quarterbacks left were first round picks except for Tom Brady, and two of which (Joe Flacco and Alex Smith) still have a lot left to prove to their team before they are considered the franchise quarterback. Two of the top quarterbacks in the league face off against two of the best defenses in the league and we will see if defenses can still win championships. Let's dive in.

Stally (Twelve-Point Pick) - @New England over Baltimore

Stally: The Patriots showed me something they hadn't all season in beating Denver last week.  They looked rested and refocused and dominated the Broncos on both sides of the ball.  You can say what you want about Tebow's struggles, but you can't ignore Brady's six touchdown passes against a defense that had been a strong point for the team.

Peyton Manning Done?

Austen's Goal Line Stand:

This might be the best we get out of Peyton
Manning for the foreseeable future.

It has been many weeks since I have done one of these, but there really just has not been too many issues I have felt strongly about so I have kept my mouth shut. However, it seems about the right time to start talking about 2012 and what that means for Peyton Manning.

I have been saying for a long time now that Manning's injury is more significant than the Colts have let on. In the NFL, when it comes to injuries, no news is bad news. If there had been any improvement or any sort of progress, we would have heard about it.

The media is constantly desperate for more stories in the NFL (heck even Pacman Jones pleading to a misdemeanor is still a storyline). If Peyton had been seen even throwing a football on his front lawn, that would have been big news. This means he still is not even close to being able to practice on a football field. Considering how much time he has already had to recuperate, this does not bode well for his future as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Divisonal Round

Drew Brees may be out of the comfort of the Superdome, but
he has been unstoppable all year and that should continue.

Neither OXen managed to go perfect last week.  Both foresaw the outcomes of the NFC games with New Orleans and the Giants running away from their opponents.  However, split opinions on the AFC led to a split decision.  Stally was right that Cincinnati ultimately couldn't stick with Houston, but Austen's Tebow pick paid off when the Broncos beat the Steelers on the first snap of overtime.

This week, there are again a couple differing opinions and a couple concurring ones: the Saints are again the go to team this week.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - New Orleans over @San Francisco

Austen: This was really the only game that I was confident in my pick. Drew Brees has been on an absolute tear down the stretch. I know the 49ers have most likely the best defense in the league but with all the rules changes in football, that old statement "defenses win championships" is dead and gone. Teams live and die by their offense these days. Take a look at the Packers. They have one of the worst defenses in the league and they only lost one game all year long! The Patriots are the top seed in the AFC and they too have a pitiful defense.

The Super Bowl winners of late have all been offense heavy teams. Yes, the Packers and Steelers had great defenses last season, but they also had top-five quarterbacks. I really think Alex Smith will take too many sacks in this game for the 49ers to pull out a win. At best the 49ers will keep it close in a defensive battle, but who are you going to bet on making the play at the end of the game to win it, Smith or Brees? Yea, I'm siding with Brees. 

Stally: I'm siding with Brees as well, but I was under the impression we'd pick the AFC teams first and then move on to two NFC games that I could see going either way.  If this game were in New Orleans, the Saints would be a clear favorite, but the outdoor game at Candlestick will definitely favor the Niners.  That said, do I think San Fran has enough to where it can translate that favorability into a win?  No, I do not.  I'm also taking the Saints, but not with nearly as much conviction as Austen.

Wild Card Round

The Saints crowd noise is tough for any
team to deal with, especially one that
has not made the playoffs since 1999.

Well it is finally here. It is playoff time. The reason every team in the NFL plays those pesky 16 regular season games. The Texans have their first ever playoff berth, the Lions make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade in which they have been consistently one of the worst teams in the league, and Tim Tebow sneaks the Broncos into the playoffs after losing three straight games.

The beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen. The Packers, Giants, and Steelers have all won the Super Bowl as six-seeds, maybe the Bengals or Lions will do the same? Let's take it slow and take it one week at a time. Stally and I drafted our pick for this week, so here they are.

Stally: Just a note from me.  I had a busy Saturday with a trip to Boston for a big hockey game against Vancouver, so sorry I wasn't able to weigh in before the games.  I'm writing my comments on Sunday morning (and Austen's responses as well).

Stally (Eight-Point Pick) - @New Orleans over Detroit

Stally: The Saints haven't lost at home all season.  I heard a stat on Bill Simmons' B.S. Report that the last three times the Saints were favored by double-digits at home, they covered the spread all three times.  They were favored by double digits again in this one, so I took 'em.  I figured the Lions would put up a fight, but of all four games, this was the only one where I couldn't see one team (Detroit) beating the other.

Austen: I completely agree with Stally, and clearly we were both right. I knew the Lions would be impressive, but there is simply no stopping Brees in New Orleans. I cannot wait to see how he plays in San Fran against probably the best defense in the league. We will see if it is offense or defense that truly wins championships.

The 2011 OXen Awards: MVP + LVP

Eli Manning had a great year, but it was
the season of Aaron Rodgers. (Getty)

The 2011 regular season is over.  The Broncos, the Bengals and the Lions are headed to the playoffs.  The Chargers, the Jets and the Eagles are not.  The San Francisco 49ers went 13-3.  The Indinapolis Colts went 2-14.  Before we dive into the playoffs, the OXen would like to hand out their regular season awards for the Most Valuable and Least Valuable team assets.

It's important to note the difference between the Most Valuable Player and Most Outstanding Player.  College football awards the Heisman Trophy to the player deemed most outstanding.  However, the NFL awards the MVP and by definition, it should  be awarded to the player who had the most value to his teams success (or in the case of the OXen-created LVP, it should go to the one that is most detimental.

Most Valuable Offensive Player

Stally: I have a tough time with this one.  Many people think that it should obviously be Aaron Rodgers, they're the kind of people that ignore that Drew Brees set a record for most yards and for most completions in a season.  Brees also had more touchdown passes and fewer sacks.  It's also worth noting that Rodgers back up, Matt Flynn, passed for 480 yards and six touchdowns in Week 17, which seems to diminish that "most valuable" tag."

Week 17: New Year, Old Rivalries

Kyle Orton's return to Denver is
just one of many storylines. (Getty)

It's been a busy time for the OXen around New Year's, which included a ski trip to Stratton Mountain in Vermont this past week.  We haven't been getting any Goal Line Stands out, we haven't been updating the Final Score, and we're posting this midway through the first slate of games.

One other thing we're not doing much of: agreeing.  Stally got all five disagreements right in Week 16, but it's going to a new level this week with a total of eight (half of the games) dissenting opinions.  As Austen and Stally close out their regular season rivalry, it's rivalry week in the NFL as well, as every game is against a divisional opponent.

Austen (Eight-Point Pick) - @Atlanta over Tampa Bay

Austen: The Bucs are banged up and playing terribly. The Falcons are at home and should be able to win using a punishing run game to give Matt Ryan enough rest going into their playoff game.